Russia invades Ukraine

[Cloud Strife]

I’ve been looking into this (as best one can using the internet!) and it looks as though part of a system may have been damaged, although it’s not clear which part exactly. (For the uninitiated, the system isn’t self-contained on a single mobile platform, it comprises several individual components spread across an area).

Yes, my feeling is that something has been damaged, but I suspect that it will have simply been one of the launchers rather than any of the mission critical equipment.

The question for me is whether the Patriot systems really did manage to take out most of the missiles aimed at Kyiv. If they did, then it means that Russia is facing the situation that none of their most modern missiles are effective against 40 year old missile defence systems. It means that their hand has been exposed yet again, while they're also handing NATO a lot of priceless data.

Ukraine did not move the targeted items between the time the Russians got their intelligence and when the missiles were in their final flight

It is possible that they got satellite images while they were in the air, and just decided to do it in the hope that something would land. It's a ridiculously wasteful use of missiles, but this would be in line with Russian military tactics: throw everything at the enemy and hope for a breakthrough.

If we believe that Russia did manage to get a hit, then I think this is a strong argument for equipping Ukraine with more missiles that are capable of striking anywhere within Ukrainian territory. The old saying that the best form of defence is attack holds here, especially given that it's unlikely that anyone in the so-called "LDPR" is capable of repairing critical infrastructure.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 May 2023 ==

The latest reports are that the damaged part of the Patriot system has been fixed and is already online.

For what it's worth, I think Ukraine at this point is clearly going to counterattack at the tail end of summer. They have no reason to do so right now, they're still building up their arsenal, and Russia simply doesn't have the manpower to defend the entire front line. They're causing mayhem in Russia by attacking various military targets, they've got the capability of hitting anywhere within sovereign Ukrainian territory, and I think the longer they drag this out, the more that Russia will simply disintegrate in their own paranoia.

 

[Pete_uk]

Look what's coming to play...

(Image shows a F-16 jet)

 

[DustyBin]

Look what's coming to play...

(Image shows a F-16 jet)

When though? And who’s going to provide them?

On the face of it this is good news, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the war is over by the time Ukraine is flying F-16s.

 

[neuralnet]

It seems like we're itching to be involved in this war and I think it is very foolish. Putin can rattle more than sabres if he sees the West has declared war on him. What disturbs me more though is that the opposite position is never represented in this debate. Everyone is just nodding along again, just live during Covid, no dissent seemingly allowed. Surely people don't believe that our involvement in this is for 'humanitarian' reasons.

 

[gg1]

When though? And who’s going to provide them?

On the face of it this is good news, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the war is over by the time Ukraine is flying F-16s.

Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium are strong possibilities. All 3 nations are in the process of replacing their F-16s with F-35s, and the governments of the first two have inferred a willingness to supply Ukraine.

 

[takno]

It seems like we're itching to be involved in this war and I think it is very foolish. Putin can rattle more than sabres if he sees the West has declared war on him. What disturbs me more though is that the opposite position is never represented in this debate. Everyone is just nodding along again, just live during Covid, no dissent seemingly allowed. Surely people don't believe that our involvement in this is for 'humanitarian' reasons.

What form would your dissent take in this, and how is that being stifled? It doesn't seem to me that any significant personal freedoms are being taken away from us by this war, and in particular there aren't any abnormal restrictions on assembly or protest, so it's not really in the same class as the Covid response.

 

[najaB]

What disturbs me more though is that the opposite position is never represented in this debate.

So, go ahead and present it.

 

[43096]

What form would your dissent take in this, and how is that being stifled? It doesn't seem to me that any significant personal freedoms are being taken away from us by this war, and in particular there aren't any abnormal restrictions on assembly or protest, so it's not really in the same class as the Covid response.

Except, of course, in Russia.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Surely people don't believe that our involvement in this is for 'humanitarian' reasons.

Well clearly it's not only for humanitarian reasons. It's likely to be for humanitarian reasons PLUS people and Governments have thought about what Putin is likely to do if we just let him take Ukraine, and about the likely threat to other countries, (bearing in mind that - in the case of the UK - he's already made direct attacks on British soil), and concluded that it's strongly in the interests of the democratic countries of Europe to stop him.

 

[neuralnet]

What form would your dissent take in this, and how is that being stifled? It doesn't seem to me that any significant personal freedoms are being taken away from us by this war, and in particular there aren't any abnormal restrictions on assembly or protest, so it's not really in the same class as the Covid response.

That I'm really concerned we're dancing on the end of a pin which will lead to nuclear war. We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines, bridges into Crimea, now we're increasingly arming one side in a conflict with armaments superior to the other. None of those actions are the behaviour of a humanitarian. This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently. Yet where are the grown ups in Western Democracies asking, what on Earth are we doing? There is no balance again from media and no interrogation of our policy. It's Covid all over again.

 

[87electric]

It seems like we're itching to be involved in this war and I think it is very foolish. Putin can rattle more than sabres if he sees the West has declared war on him. What disturbs me more though is that the opposite position is never represented in this debate. Everyone is just nodding along again, just live during Covid, no dissent seemingly allowed. Surely people don't believe that our involvement in this is for 'humanitarian' reasons.

Shhh, people are not aware of the coal, oil, gas reserves, iron ore, manganese, titanium and uranium deposits that Ukraine holds. Investment money from the USA via Blackrock and loans from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) all point to what the West wants from this region. I'm sure there's quite a few on here who have never even heard of Blackrock.
War is profitable and not just about people.

What Are The Major Natural Resources Of Ukraine?

Iron ore, coal, natural gas, etc., are important natural resources of Ukraine.

www.worldatlas.com

 

[gingerheid]

We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines, ...

Not sure who "we" is in that context.

This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose ...

If you entirely disregard the entire population of Ukraine as having any humanity or rights at all, then yes, you're exactly correct. That's all it is.

Yet where are the grown ups in Western Democracies asking, what on Earth are we doing?

All our actions have been quite considered and slow, some would say too much so. We let a lot of people die before we handed over proper air defence systems, for example.

There is no balance again from media and no interrogation of our policy. It's Covid all over again.

If balance equals considering the merits of whether we should allow all the mass slaughter Russia wants to commit, then yes. I agree. Not many people have been speaking out in favour of this. The voices in favour could be getting silenced, or they could just be a tiny number of low voices.

 

[najaB]

Not sure who "we" is in that context...

Thanks for that post, you basically echoed exactly what I was going to say!

Just wanted to add, in response to this:

This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently.

Who started the 'game'? Who could end it with a single order? The answer to both questions is the same, and isn't 'the West'.

 

[Cloud Strife]

On the face of it this is good news, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the war is over by the time Ukraine is flying F-16s.

I think this is possibly another Ukrainian propaganda trick. They seem to be deliberately hyping up certain things to conceal what they're doing elsewhere, so for instance, making a massive fuss out of the F-16s is causing Russia to worry about the threat from the air. Meanwhile, if you follow what's happening on the ground, they're pounding away at Russian targets well beyond the front line without any fanfare or speeches. Bakhmut increasingly looks like a trap for the Russians, because they've thrown everything at it while Ukraine has been quietly preparing the ground elsewhere. This is exactly what Ukraine did in Severodonetsk too.

Ukraine also seems to be lobbing quite a few drones at targets within Russia recently, which suggests that they're deliberately trying to take out important facilities. They're also attacking power plants and other infrastructure, all of which is making life very difficult for Russia logistically.

and about the likely threat to other countries, (bearing in mind that - in the case of the UK - he's already made direct attacks on British soil), and concluded that it's strongly in the interests of the democratic countries of Europe to stop him.

Indeed, if this invasion succeeds, then Moldova is obviously next. Once Moldova falls, then Georgia and Armenia are also likely to quickly fall as neither of them have a hope in hell of defending themselves. And then we've got an emboldened Russia looking very closely at the Baltic States.

Shhh, people are not aware of the coal, oil, gas reserves, iron ore, manganese, titanium and uranium deposits that Ukraine holds.

We are well aware. Why else would Russia be so desperate to keep Ukraine in their sphere of influence? Ukraine has a lot of natural resources and top quality agricultural land, which would be very helpful for Mother Russia in years to come.

There is no balance

One side is defending itself as well as it can. The other side is launching missiles, destroying homes and businesses and committing war crimes when they do take over. I'm not sure what's so difficult to understand here.

 

[takno]

Shhh, people are not aware of the coal, oil, gas reserves, iron ore, manganese, titanium and uranium deposits that Ukraine holds. Investment money from the USA via Blackrock and loans from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) all point to what the West wants from this region. I'm sure there's quite a few on here who have never even heard of Blackrock.
War is profitable and not just about people.

What Are The Major Natural Resources Of Ukraine?

Iron ore, coal, natural gas, etc., are important natural resources of Ukraine.

www.worldatlas.com

The west could have continued to help Ukraine to exploit those resources, and paid them at the going rate for them. It's really really just Russia who are invading and trying to steal them

 

[DustyBin]

Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium are strong possibilities. All 3 nations are in the process of replacing their F-16s with F-35s, and the governments of the first two have inferred a willingness to supply Ukraine.

I’m not an expert so I’m happy to be corrected, but this is the situation as I understand it.

Netherlands

They’ve already sold the majority of their fleet, but could potentially supply a small number.

Denmark

Still a considerable way off introducing F-35s so whilst they could, someone would need to provide air cover for them in the meantime (not impossible).

Belgium

Again are still some way off introducing F-35s and only have a small number of operational F-16s. Seemingly they’re keeping flying hours down on them as they’ve been worked very hard.

Again, if any of the above is inaccurate please feel free to correct me; this is only what I’ve picked up from various online articles over the last few months.

 

[adc82140]

There are of course several middle eastern and north African countries flying them. Note that NATO countries have committed to training the pilots, not supplying the jets. Could a non NATO supplier be a potential fudge to be seen as less escalatory? Why was Zelensky schmoozing the Arab League last week?

 

[brad465]

Putin can rattle more than sabres if he sees the West has declared war on him.

The West have de facto declared war on him with all the arms given, and Putin has done nothing despite giving increasingly bigger and better supplies.

What disturbs me more though is that the opposite position is never represented in this debate.

"If someone says it's raining, and another says it's dry, the job of a journalist is not to strike a balance between them, it's to look out of the ******* window and see who is correct."

We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines...

There is only one "reporter" who has been running with this, Seymour Hersch, who is a well known anti-US reporter and seems to stand out alone in peddling this. If it were true there would be several other sources running with it, but even other nutty outlets are not from what I can tell.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Again, if any of the above is inaccurate please feel free to correct me; this is only what I’ve picked up from various online articles over the last few months.

From what I gather, there are potentially 125 planes available for transfer to Ukraine from NATO operators. Norway is the most likely candidate of them all, because they've already retired their F-16s in favour of F-35s. It might well be agreed that all four will supply what they can, in exchange for the US taking on the air policing mission for those who need it.

From what I can gather, the Dutch have 28 available, while Norway has 64. Ukraine themselves say that they need around 24 plus some reserves. Transferring 50-60 would be a real statement of intent, but it's likely that NATO will only transfer the minimum needed while waiting to see what Ukraine does with them.

 

[Annetts key]

That I'm really concerned we're dancing on the end of a pin which will lead to nuclear war.

There isn’t going to be a nuclear war. Putin and the people he surrounds himself with know that if Russia used nuclear weapon, their life time would be measured in days if not hours. And no matter how many body doubles he uses, or which bunker he hides in, eventually he would be taken out.

Putin is very wealthy and the most powerful person in Russia, effectively a dictator. So, why would he risk his life and his lifestyle? What good is it being rich and powerful if you have to hide?

No, Putin will not use nuclear weapons, his number one priority is looking out for himself and trying to stay in power for as long as possible so that he can continue to enjoy being rich and powerful.

Remember, the special military operation was never supposed to have taken this amount of time. Ukraine was supposed to have rolled over and given up.

We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines, bridges into Crimea

So, tell me, what was in it for any of the Western countries in blowing up the Nordstream pipelines? There was no gas flowing through them at the time anyway. And the Western countries certainly did not want an energy crisis last winter. So what was the motive? Remember, it was Russia “playing games” with the gas supply.

And what bridges are you on about? The Western countries have not blown up any bridges in Ukraine or Russia. If a Western country had intended to destroy a bridge, you can guarantee that it would have been destroyed not damaged.

now we're increasingly arming one side in a conflict with armaments superior to the other.

Yes we are, along with many, many other countries. We are supporting and supplying Ukraine so that they can defend themselves against an illegal and unwarranted invasion by an aggressor. Russia has invaded a sovereign independent country.

And of course the countries that support Ukraine are going to try to supply weapons and systems that are just as good as, or better than the systems that Russia has. In defensive war, that’s the point, to push the invader back while minimising the number of your own casualties.

None of those actions are the behaviour of a humanitarian.

Would it have been better to allow Russia to eliminate large parts of the Ukrainian population? To allow the Russian military to continue to commit war crimes, including torture and rape?

This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently.

This is absolutely no game. Putin started this war with his invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Then ramped it up last year with his special military operation. So it is him who has given himself a bloody nose. His decisions have already have backfired spectacularly. The Russian losses are already spectacularly bad.

Yet where are the grown ups in Western Democracies asking, what on Earth are we doing?

IMHO the Western Democracies have been very grown up with the decisions they have made.

There is no balance again from media and no interrogation of our policy.

Maybe you should go to Russia and discuss this with Putin. After all, there is absolutely no problem with lack of balance in the media in Russia… And very little challenging of Russian government policies.

In Western Democracies, a free and independent media means that they can report on what they like (within the laws of their respective countries). There is no requirement for a balance. Reporters often ask government questions on government polices.

 

[RichJF]

That I'm really concerned we're dancing on the end of a pin which will lead to nuclear war. We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines, bridges into Crimea, now we're increasingly arming one side in a conflict with armaments superior to the other. None of those actions are the behaviour of a humanitarian. This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently. Yet where are the grown ups in Western Democracies asking, what on Earth are we doing? There is no balance again from media and no interrogation of our policy. It's Covid all over again.

I've been actively trying to stay out of this thread given the industry I work in, however this post saddens me. Not because of the OP, but because the fear that that is being generated & is clear in this post. The best thing is to stop reading 99& of the mass media as its main purpose is to garner sales through things like scaremongering and often incorrect headlines. I suggest de-sensitising yourself. Yes it's fine to be concerned about Ukraine but I wouldn't go rushing to prepare your nuclear survival kit either.

We ARE NOT going to end up in a nuclear war. Moscow & Washington still talk to each other about certain items & treaties. If there was a nuclear war coming then those hotlines would no longer be active & you'd see B-52s on constant deployment & a 2nd Vanguard sub out on patrol.

When Russia states things like "sending DU ammunition is a red line" or "sending F-16s means NATO is involved" they are reactionary inflammatory responses. Case in point, Russia threatened the UK when we sent aid, threatened us when we sent Chally 2s, threatened us when we sent ammunition. What did they do? Nothing.

The point of sending arms & aid to Ukraine is to make it VERY CLEAR to Putin that Ukraine is a sovereign country that is entitled to defend its borders and choose its future path. Putin has an off ramp & that off ramp is to withdraw from Ukraine.

 

[jon0844]

Putin might (is) desperate to keep his power and lifestyle, but it must be extremely challenging now. He can't trust people around him and certainly can't just go out and about with his huge wealth, nor travel freely around the world.

He must at some point be looking for a (literal) exit strategy and to save face and be able to declare some sort of victory to his people.

Meanwhile, while I don't doubt he has supporters for one second, I expect a lot of people know the score even if they're too scared to say so. They may show support if asked but that's it.

 

[Giugiaro]

This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently.

Putin already has a bloody nose from his failure to capture Kyiv.
Don't pity the fool.

 

[Simon11]

Very interesting article showing how hard it could be for Ukraine to regain their land, although I wonder if clear weaknesses are not being highlighted here.

Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault

Fortifications against Ukraine's counter-attack are uncovered by a BBC analysis of satellite images.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Killingworth]

Very interesting article showing how hard it could be for Ukraine to regain their land, although I wonder if clear weaknesses are not being highlighted here.

Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault

Fortifications against Ukraine's counter-attack are uncovered by a BBC analysis of satellite images.

www.bbc.co.uk

It's turning into a WW1 Western Front scenario where Bakhmut was seen by both sides like Verdun. Ukraine's best hope is Russian internal collapse, be it by large scale mutiny at the front or by political infighting in Moscow leading to diversion of troops to support rival factions. A bit like the Eastern front in 1917! No doubt both sides are well aware of that precedent

 

[Parjon]

That I'm really concerned we're dancing on the end of a pin which will lead to nuclear war. We're involved in blowing up Nordstream pipelines, bridges into Crimea, now we're increasingly arming one side in a conflict with armaments superior to the other. None of those actions are the behaviour of a humanitarian. This is some silly game intending to give Putin a bloody nose and could backfire spectacularly, gravely and permanently. Yet where are the grown ups in Western Democracies asking, what on Earth are we doing? There is no balance again from media and no interrogation of our policy. It's Covid all over again.

Like COVID all over again eh? Maybe it's the 5G. My signal strength is full bars, and I definitely believe we're doing the right thing.

Far from involving ourselves in other people's wars, we're defending the concept of free will and the right of peaceful societies to exist. Rather than giving Putin a silly slap, we're defending against dirty little bond villains whose idea of a future for humanity involves slavery and medieval barbarity.

Who has for the past 10 years been attacking this country through polarising activist funding, hacking and even poisoning dissidents on our soil. All the while conditioning and repressing their own population.

Repeating the lie that we blew up NordStream rather gives away your real "concern". The truth is that Russia blew it up themselves as a pretext, practice and attempt to exacerbate the energy crisis. Denying this isn't "dissent". It's something else which is plainly apparent.

 

[brad465]

Some early reports that a group called the Free Russia Legion have entered Belgorod Oblast in Russia and taken some settlements:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1660617001046343681

(Can't copy text as on phone)

 

[Parjon]

Alleged reports, I would add.

 

[ainsworth74]

Yes Visegrad24 are a useful source of info but they do tend to jump on rumours and treat them as facts.

 

[Bantamzen]

I've been actively trying to stay out of this thread given the industry I work in, however this post saddens me. Not because of the OP, but because the fear that that is being generated & is clear in this post. The best thing is to stop reading 99& of the mass media as its main purpose is to garner sales through things like scaremongering and often incorrect headlines. I suggest de-sensitising yourself. Yes it's fine to be concerned about Ukraine but I wouldn't go rushing to prepare your nuclear survival kit either.

We ARE NOT going to end up in a nuclear war. Moscow & Washington still talk to each other about certain items & treaties. If there was a nuclear war coming then those hotlines would no longer be active & you'd see B-52s on constant deployment & a 2nd Vanguard sub out on patrol.

When Russia states things like "sending DU ammunition is a red line" or "sending F-16s means NATO is involved" they are reactionary inflammatory responses. Case in point, Russia threatened the UK when we sent aid, threatened us when we sent Chally 2s, threatened us when we sent ammunition. What did they do? Nothing.

The point of sending arms & aid to Ukraine is to make it VERY CLEAR to Putin that Ukraine is a sovereign country that is entitled to defend its borders and choose its future path. Putin has an off ramp & that off ramp is to withdraw from Ukraine.

A very good post and I applaud it. As you say we are not on the brink of nuclear obliteration, nowhere near. Certainly not like the 60s, 70s & into the 80s when we were much, much closer especially in October 1962 when it came critically close. Yes Putin is pushing boundaries, perhaps with a dream of restarting the Soviet Union, and the situation in Ukraine is a concern. But the two superpowers chucking warheads at each other is not imminent.

Sadly the growing anxiety about it in the population, especially the younger generations, is media driven. Everything reported now is a crisis, an emergency and we need to panic and only that media outlet is the place to keep up to date. (i.e. buy / click on their products / see the sponsored ads). And its not just the situation in Ukraine, the climate, or world economies, its pretty much anything these days. On my Google news feed I've seen "stark" warnings about having to wait a few minutes more at airport security, the availability of certain brands of butter, incoming rain showers....

No wonder people are starting to panic.