Russia invades Ukraine

[357]

Word on the ground is that the offensive has started/will start within hours

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Word on the ground is that the offensive has started/will start within hours

Interesting. Especially since only today, Zelensky said that Ukraine is not yet ready to start the offensive (although it is of course possible that is intended to mislead Russia): BBC News report

Speaking at his headquarters in Kyiv, President Zelensky described combat brigades, some of which were trained by Nato countries, as being "ready" but said the army still needed "some things", including armoured vehicles that were "arriving in batches".
"With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful," he said in an interview for public service broadcasters who are members of Eurovision News, like the BBC. "But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time."

 

[gingerheid]

It's not really in his interests to tell the truth about that particular matter at this particular moment in time!

 

[brad465]

Word on the ground is that the offensive has started/will start within hours

The BBC is already reporting that pro-Russian sources are reporting Ukrainian soldier advances, with the Russian Defence Ministry denying this:

Russia denies advances by Ukrainian forces along front line

Pro-Russian sources say Ukrainian soldiers have made advances on the front line in east Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia's defence ministry has denied reports by pro-Russian sources that Ukrainian soldiers have made advances on the front line in east Ukraine.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group fighting on the Russian side, accused regular Russian troops of abandoning positions around Bakhmut.
Russian military bloggers reported Ukrainian advances or troop movements in several areas on Thursday.
Ukraine's president said earlier it was too early to start a counteroffensive.
"With [what we already have] we can go forward and, I think, be successful," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview for public service broadcasters who are members of Eurovision News, like the BBC.
"But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time."
The expected attack could be decisive in the war, redrawing frontlines that, for months, have remained unchanged. It will also be a crucial test for Ukraine, eager to prove that the weapons and equipment it has received from the West can result in significant battlefield gains.
In a statement, Russia's defence ministry said: "The individual declarations on Telegram about a 'breakthrough' on several points on the frontline do not correspond to reality."
"The general situation in the special military operation zone is under control," it added.
According to Mr Prigozhin, the situation "on the flanks" at Bakhmut, the ruined city at the centre of bloody fighting for months, was "developing in line with the worst of the predicted scenarios".

 

[Sm5]

Zelenskys announcement was odd.

When was the last time a leader stood up and told their enemy we are not ready to fight you yet ?

From a propaganda perspective its almost negative.. it could demoralise your own, who stand down, even if the enemy was nervous of their coming. At worst a prepared enemy could take it as a weakness to take initiative, somewhere inbetween could be a psyops “dont believe it” or designed to keep the fear rolling in the enemy.

All messages, public and private are worded for the intended recipient, and to everyone else is just noise. So who is the recipient ?

I can only think of two audiences..

1, Nato supporters and suppliers.. saying hurry up with the goods
2, A public message supporting to a back channel of negotiators for ending the war, signalling more time for discussions.

The timing of the UKs longer range missiles could also support both… its a “we are here with strength” message.

The lack of a supporting “lets get the gear to the theatre message ” message from Jans Stoltenburg, or Ursula Von Der leiden both whom went to Kiev in the last few weeks is also apparent..why stay silent when the warrior asks for more time to get munitions ?

Well when you look at the other side, the message is similar… Prigozhin is berating his masters for lack of munitions, threatening a pull back. This criticsm is something almost unheard of in Russia if you expect to survive… so it is also just as odd as Zelenskys announcement, unless its been approved.

So here we have a consistent… one side saying they arent ready to fight, and the other side threatening to withdraw… in a highly aggressive way they are both suggesting a ceasefire of sorts, both messages resonate upwards to higher leadership…

it feels like diplomatic langugage Putin via Progizhin, Biden/Nato via Zelensky.

So Maybe there are discussions, or pretext for, are taking place?

 

[najaB]

Zelenskys announcement was odd.

When was the last time a leader stood up and told their enemy we are not ready to fight you yet ?

From a propaganda perspective its almost negative.. it could demoralise your own, who stand down, even if the enemy was nervous of their coming. At worst a prepared enemy could take it as a weakness to take initiative, somewhere inbetween could be a psyops “dont believe it” or designed to keep the fear rolling in the enemy.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces know their readiness state so the message was clearly for the consumption of others. I'd put it as 60% a 'hurry up' message to allies, and 40% a 'take your chance to surrender' message to the Russian conscripts.

 

[edwin_m]

Strikes me as a bit of disinformation for the Russians. Either a bluff (recent advances in Bakhmut are the start of the counteroffensive), or a double-bluff (we want you to think it's a bluff, and Bakhmut is a diversionary attack or just an opportunistic tactical advance).

 

[Sm5]

It could be, but in that case I wouldnt expect any Ukrainian attack before Eurovision…

I think the bluff would have been Victory day (it certainly felt like the Russians were thinking that).

We saw last Feb the lines of Russian tanks waiting to invade and everyone knew it was coming… the images were clear as day, even if some refused to believe it.
As always, speed and logistics… A line of tanks is hard to hide, and even if they are scattered, theres no 70mph motorway to move them close to, quick.

Reading the various channels out there (both sides), neither suggest a mobilisation of forces ready to attack…. This is 2023.. D-Day will not be a surprise to either side…the roads are poor, the distances long and the satelite images are good. Russia has volume, Ukraine has precision.
Both sides will know when the crescendo is coming… what they dont know is the chances of success… will a handful of Leopards be enough to swamp a larger swath of T55’s ? Will Patriots, Storm chasers and Himars be enough ?

That is what I think is the bluff right now, and the psyops… Russia hasnt yet responded and the downing of the Kinshal probably made more devastating impact in Moscow than it did in Ukraine, no wonder theirs panic in Russian Soldiers… they know Russia’s reputation better than anyone else, and know the reputation of western tech they are facing. I wouldnt be surprised if they trusted a t55 over a t90

Dont forget soldiers, are ultimately pawns in the game of military chess, they have the right to moan as they get the thick end of it without knowing the wider game plan… but dont kid yourself.. both sides have a wider game plan.

 

[Parjon]

it feels like diplomatic langugage Putin via Progizhin, Biden/Nato via Zelensky.

So Maybe there are discussions, or pretext for, are taking place?

NATO has nothing to negotiate, much less Biden. It's Ukraine that was invaded and Ukraine that is defending itself.

As for the first two inhuman creatures mentioned, they lie as a matter of course and so much so that none of their words hold any meaning.

That's not a good position to be in if you want to negotiate.

 

[357]

Kiev

Kyiv

 

[edwin_m]

It could be, but in that case I wouldnt expect any Ukrainian attack before Eurovision…

I think the bluff would have been Victory day (it certainly felt like the Russians were thinking that).

We saw last Feb the lines of Russian tanks waiting to invade and everyone knew it was coming… the images were clear as day, even if some refused to believe it.
As always, speed and logistics… A line of tanks is hard to hide, and even if they are scattered, theres no 70mph motorway to move them close to, quick.

Reading the various channels out there (both sides), neither suggest a mobilisation of forces ready to attack…. This is 2023.. D-Day will not be a surprise to either side…the roads are poor, the distances long and the satelite images are good. Russia has volume, Ukraine has precision.
Both sides will know when the crescendo is coming… what they dont know is the chances of success… will a handful of Leopards be enough to swamp a larger swath of T55’s ? Will Patriots, Storm chasers and Himars be enough ?

That is what I think is the bluff right now, and the psyops… Russia hasnt yet responded and the downing of the Kinshal probably made more devastating impact in Moscow than it did in Ukraine, no wonder theirs panic in Russian Soldiers… they know Russia’s reputation better than anyone else, and know the reputation of western tech they are facing. I wouldnt be surprised if they trusted a t55 over a t90

Dont forget soldiers, are ultimately pawns in the game of military chess, they have the right to moan as they get the thick end of it without knowing the wider game plan… but dont kid yourself.. both sides have a wider game plan.

But despite all this, Ukraine achieved a breakthrough in Kharkiv last year, which must have been either due to surprise or because Russia couldn't spare any forces to counter it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It's not really in his interests to tell the truth about that particular matter at this particular moment in time!

Yes and no. Obviously, it's in his interests to mislead Russia. But if in what is a major political speech he simultaneously misleads the countries that are supporting Ukraine about his plans, that's not going to help him get more support in the future. Having said that, my own sense is that his speech wasn't misleading anyone, and the advances being reported are more likely opportunistic tactical advances rather than part of a big offensive, with the timing being coincidental (though if - not too implausibly - those advances cause further collapse of Russian defenses, it could well turn into a much bigger opportunistic advance).

 

[Sm5]

NATO has nothing to negotiate, much less Biden. It's Ukraine that was invaded and Ukraine that is defending itself.

As for the first two inhuman creatures mentioned, they lie as a matter of course and so much so that none of their words hold any meaning.

That's not a good position to be in if you want to negotiate.

Yes but what happens after..

lets assume Russia goes home, lets even assume Putin is deposed…

if there is no peace, Russia is right next door and everything will be for nought if Russia keeps lobbing missiles from Belgorod.
Will we tolerate Ukraine invading Russia to build a bufferzone ?,
Will peacekeepers be needed along the border, who’s nation will do it ?.. China, Turkey, UK, NATO ? The US has persistently tried to avoid putting its troops face to face with Russians in all conflicts… so maybe its Europes Border force ?

NATO will need to support Ukraine for decades, even if it doesnt join NATO.. the country will need protection from future threats…Who will decide whats supplied, Ukraine or consultation with NATO ?

The EU will need to plough billions into rebuilding Ukraine… before this war Ukraine wasnt thar far advanced since WW2 in most of the country, what it had will need replacing. Its taken the EU 20 years to bring Poland up to western standards, and Poland was a good 30 years ahead of Ukraine in investment perspective.. kyiv may be modern , lviv maybe like Krakow.. but the infrastructure is rotten Before this war even started.

Negotiations, Truce and Peace will need to happen, even in total humilating defeat of Russia… unless everyone wants infinite war?

Surely the goal of this conflict is for Russia to go home, stay home, if that happens by diplomacy, thats just as much a win as by combat ?

The peace declaration will need to be on Ukraines terms, but maintaining it long term will need to include NATO/Biden.

I might be too optimistic, but hearing the invader threating to withdraw and the defender indicating they arent ready to attack sounds bizarre... but ostensibly thats what happened in Kherson.. It wasnt a Ukrainian rout.. the Russians bailed.. if thats how the war continues to play out, then many lives end up saved… but once the last Russian is out… then what ?

War isnt just soldiers and guns, its governed by politics, which in turn is guided by economic interests. All war is about money in the end.


(I do suspect Wagner may end up swapping Ukraine for Sudan if the pay there is better).

 

[gingerheid]

Negotiations, Truce and Peace will need to happen, even in total humilating defeat of Russia… unless everyone wants infinite war?

Surely the goal of this conflict is for Russia to go home, stay home, if that happens by diplomacy, thats just as much a win as by combat ?

Perhaps we can't hope to make Russia a nice country; who knows. Perhaps post war Germany has been an exception. Based on recent history it's quite possible Russia will always be an aggressor state.

The recent development is causing larger amonts of aggression closer to us. If it goes back to causing smaller amounts of trouble, and goes back to causing it mainly in Georgia, Armenia and Azeribaijan...
... in a sense, and as cynical as it is to say it, that's kind of a result for Western Europe. On the other hand, if they'd had as easy a time in Ukraine as they'd hoped then it's well possible they could have tried for a NATO member next.

 

[Sm5]

NATO has nothing to negotiate, much less Biden. It's Ukraine that was invaded and Ukraine that is defending itself.

As for the first two inhuman creatures mentioned, they lie as a matter of course and so much so that none of their words hold any meaning.

That's not a good position to be in if you want to negotiate.

Not disputing that. But someone has to sit down with someone.
if its neither of them two, then is kadyrov better ?

but then youve gone beyond turfing out Russia to end the war, and moved into regime change as a precondition to ending the war..

i suspect it will be Lavrov who signs the papers someday, with Turkish ink. China I dont think will resolve it, but if China wants to play peacemaker, they cannot take sides (even though they have). if it keeps them from arming Russia why they try, then its good for the Ukrainians in the interim.

The thing about Turkey is the transparency… they dont care for any of it, they just want the theatre and the profit.

its interesting the number of countries which havent put both feet in the firmly in the western circle.. Brazil, South Africa, Egypt, India, UAE even Italy and Germany have a small part their feet in the overlapping part of the venn diagram… Someone will get slapped by the US soon, South Africa is looking pretty good for it… caught supplying weapons to Russia in Cape Town last month…

Based on recent history it's quite possible Russia will always be an aggressor state. The recent development is causing larger amonts of aggression closer to us. If it goes back to causing smaller amounts of trouble, and goes back to causing it mainly in Georgia, Armenia and Azeribaijan then in a sense, then as cynical as it is to say it that's kind of a result for Western Europe.

I suspect China will end up owning parts of Russia. But a good result would be the country breaking up further.
That maybe wishful thinking, but its certainly not beyond reason that when Putin exits there maybe a power struggle.

Afterwards Ukraine is going to need huge capital investment in both security and infrastructure. Obviously if Russia goes pop, Belarus may do too, then Europe has to deal with another basket case economy needing its help.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Word on the ground is that the offensive has started/will start within hours

They're deliberately putting out all sorts of strange messages to confuse the Russians. While I don't think they're ready yet, the Russians are starting to really panic online, with all sorts of information floating around the Russian infosphere. They're certainly building up to something, and the current offensive on the flanks of Bahkmut might well be another psyop. The Russians are reeling from the news that they're now losing ground in Bahkmut, which will make other troops simply unwilling to fight.

The Ukrainians are dominating the Russians psychologically in this war, and I would even argue that they don't need to strike right now. There is an argument that Russian troops are not equipped for another long winter, so a blitzkrieg attack in late August/early September before the autumn rains could work well. This would fit with the training for the Abrams tanks, as they need about 10 weeks to get Ukrainian crews up to speed. It would also be more favourable to attack then than in June/July with the brutal summer temperatures that Ukraine experiences.

What is important right now is that the Storm Shadow missiles are already in use: they've just smacked Luhansk (city) with one.

 

[najaB]

Yes and no. Obviously, it's in his interests to mislead Russia. But if in what is a major political speech he simultaneously misleads the countries that are supporting Ukraine about his plans, that's not going to help him get more support in the future.

What he says in public, and the discussions that they have in private almost certainly bear little or no resemblance whatsoever.

 

[Cloud Strife]

What he says in public, and the discussions that they have in private almost certainly bear little or no resemblance whatsoever.

Indeed. The Ukrainians have proven to be masters at propaganda, starting from the very first days where they were pumping out videos showing civilians attacking Russian troops. Remember "I need ammo, not a ride"?

I suspect that speech was cleverly timed to coincide with the increasing attacks within Russian-controlled territory, showing that Ukraine can indeed use what they're given.

 

[dangie]

I’m sure the Russian Military Commanders don’t get their information from the BBC, especially if they want correct information

 

[Parjon]

In a society as corrupted as Russia, where they are compelled to believe in lies by law, if they want correct information they can rely on they're out of luck eh.

Apart from Ukrainian drones dropping instructions on how to give themselves up, that is.

 

[edwin_m]

Yes but what happens after..

lets assume Russia goes home, lets even assume Putin is deposed…

if there is no peace, Russia is right next door and everything will be for nought if Russia keeps lobbing missiles from Belgorod.
Will we tolerate Ukraine invading Russia to build a bufferzone ?,
Will peacekeepers be needed along the border, who’s nation will do it ?.. China, Turkey, UK, NATO ? The US has persistently tried to avoid putting its troops face to face with Russians in all conflicts… so maybe its Europes Border force ?

NATO will need to support Ukraine for decades, even if it doesnt join NATO.. the country will need protection from future threats…Who will decide whats supplied, Ukraine or consultation with NATO ?

The EU will need to plough billions into rebuilding Ukraine… before this war Ukraine wasnt thar far advanced since WW2 in most of the country, what it had will need replacing. Its taken the EU 20 years to bring Poland up to western standards, and Poland was a good 30 years ahead of Ukraine in investment perspective.. kyiv may be modern , lviv maybe like Krakow.. but the infrastructure is rotten Before this war even started.

Negotiations, Truce and Peace will need to happen, even in total humilating defeat of Russia… unless everyone wants infinite war?

Surely the goal of this conflict is for Russia to go home, stay home, if that happens by diplomacy, thats just as much a win as by combat ?

The peace declaration will need to be on Ukraines terms, but maintaining it long term will need to include NATO/Biden.

I might be too optimistic, but hearing the invader threating to withdraw and the defender indicating they arent ready to attack sounds bizarre... but ostensibly thats what happened in Kherson.. It wasnt a Ukrainian rout.. the Russians bailed.. if thats how the war continues to play out, then many lives end up saved… but once the last Russian is out… then what ?

War isnt just soldiers and guns, its governed by politics, which in turn is guided by economic interests. All war is about money in the end.


(I do suspect Wagner may end up swapping Ukraine for Sudan if the pay there is better).

All this is equally true if Russia stays in parts of Ukraine. The West is landed with a problem either way, but the problem is bigger if Russia can point to territorial gains from its aggression than if it is pushed back to its border and seen to have gained nothing for all the loss of life and economic damage.

To me, Ukraine has to be admitted to NATO once there is some sort of resolution, then it is very clear that Russia will face overwhelming odds if it tries anything in the future. If they continue their current posture they then face a strong deterrent including the ultimate threat of Western nukes, and if they totally change their attitude and start respecting international norms then they would also recognise that NATO is purely a defensive structure and has no intention to invade Russia, not least because Russia has nukes of its own.

Crimea is a particular problem though, as it will be difficult to dislodge the Russians militarily and there is more local support for Russia there (though even there a majority voted for Ukrainian independence). If it remains in Russian hands then I imagine the isthmus connecting it to the rest of Ukraine could be fortified (by both sides) to give some security against it being used to launch another invasion, but factions within Ukraine might be pushing to start another war to recover it. If Ukraine isn't able to recover it militarily or by cutting supply lines as they did with Kherson, then it may come to the painful point of the West making the NATO umbrella conditional on Ukraine not starting anything there.

 

[Giugiaro]

I'm not sure if I can post this on RUKF. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Avaaz is conducting a petition demanding South Africa arrest Putin on his next visit to the country.
Anyone who might be interested can sign in the link bellow:

Put Putin in jail!

Putin is wanted for the mass abduction of Ukrainian children – and South Africa has a legal duty to arrest him if he travels there for a summit! Join the global call for justice now:

secure.avaaz.org

South Africa: Arrest Putin!
​

The world held its breath when the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin for war crimes involving children. But unless he’s arrested, we won’t be any closer to justice.

Putin’s betting that won’t happen. That’s why he’s planning to visit South Africa in August – even though the government there has a legal duty to arrest him. If the trip goes ahead, it’ll be a victory for impunity everywhere!

But we can change that. The South African government appears divided over what to do, and a massive global outcry now could make the difference.

Let’s build a million voices urging South Africa to make crystal clear that Putin will be arrested if he steps off the plane – when our call is huge, we’ll take it straight to South Africa’s president and the newspapers he reads over breakfast! Sign and share now – let’s stand up for justice!

 

[Annetts key]

I’m not convinced that Russia will make much effort to defend and continue to try to hold on to Crimea.

When (or before) the Ukraine military gets to the coast of the sea of Azov and cuts off the Russian land supply route, and damages or destroys the Kerch Strait bridges, it will become increasingly difficult for Russia to defend the peninsula.

Already, if you believe some of the reports, lots of Russians have left, having fled to the Russian mainland.

Remember, the Crimean peninsula has fallen multiple times before in past wars. So, the Russian defence may well crumble quickly. But even if it doesn’t, I just can’t see it taking more than a year to fall.

I think the more difficult areas for Ukraine to retake will be parts of the Donetsk Oblast near the Russian border.

 

[357]

Already, if you believe some of the reports, lots of Russians have left, having fled to the Russian mainland.

My (Ukrainian) wife's parents are still in Crimea and this is very much the case. The russian support in many areas has crumbled since last summer when missiles started regularly flying overhead.

 

[brad465]

Lukaskenko appears to be in poor health, while this is not necessarily the end for him, if it is Putin may have a very tough time trying to keep the country within his grip, given the unrest in 2020:

Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko misses event, fuelling health rumours

Speculation about Alexander Lukashenko's health has grown after he missed a key state celebration.

www.bbc.co.uk

Belarus' leader Alexander Lukashenko has missed a major state celebration, further fuelling health speculation.
The autocratic politician, 68, usually speaks publicly at the annual National Flag, Emblem and Anthem Day event but his prime minister read a message on his behalf on Sunday.
Last week, Mr Lukashenko left Moscow soon after Victory Day parade, skipping lunch with President Vladimir Putin.
Mr Lukashenko looked visibly tired, and his right hand was bandaged.
He was last seen in public laying flowers in the capital Minsk during Belarus' own Victory Day celebrations on 9 May - a few hours after returning from the Russian capital.
An opposition Telegram channel reported that Mr Lukashenko visited a presidential medical centre just outside Minsk on Saturday night - but this information has not been independently verified.
Mr Lukashenko's office has so far made no comments on the issue.
Often described in the West as Europe's last dictator, Mr Lukashenko has ruled Belarus since 1994, suppressing any dissent.
In 2020, he was proclaimed as the winner of presidential elections, which were denounced by the opposition as a sham.
Thousand of people were later arrested and brutally beaten by riot police and KGB security service agents during mass anti-government protests that rocked the country.
However, Mr Lukashenko managed to stay in power, backed by Russia.
Last year, he supported President Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, offering Belarus as a launchpad for Russian troops to cross into Ukraine and allowing Russian war planes to carry out strikes from Belarusian soil.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Polish Twitter is alive today with information that Lukashenko is either seriously ill or already dead. He hasn't been seen since the May 9th parade in Moscow where he was visibly looking unwell, and he apparently missed some informal breakfast with other CIS leaders too. He also didn't give a traditional speech in Belarus on May 9th, which has really got people talking. It seems that he was apparently hospitalised yesterday.

As ridiculous as it sounds, I wouldn't be shocked if he was actually poisoned. Russia desperately needs Belarus to enter the war, but Belarus is still stubbornly staying out of it while letting Russia use their country as a platform to attack from.

 

[brad465]

As ridiculous as it sounds, I wouldn't be shocked if he was actually poisoned. Russia desperately needs Belarus to enter the war, but Belarus is still stubbornly staying out of it while letting Russia use their country as a platform to attack from.

From what I can tell Putin is stuck between a rock and a hard place with Lukashenko and Belarus generally. If Belarus enter the war properly then there's a serious risk of unrest at home, both at the decision and because the army are less able to quell general unrest against the regime. If however Lukashenko is deposed/dies in the near future, then unless Putin can quickly get another puppet in very quickly who the population don't immediately rebel against, the population (if the 2020 election rigging claims are to be believed) could easily act to install a more democratic leader who moves away from Russia like Ukraine has, and Putin suddenly doesn't have any buffer zone in Eastern Europe (and a full scale invasion of Belarus would stretch the already stretched army). I imagine the status quo isn't going to last long if Putin is running out of patience on Belarus' current stance.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Lukashenko has resurfaced, but he's quite clearly ill from the video that was released.

I imagine the status quo isn't going to last long if Putin is running out of patience on Belarus' current stance.

I think it's worth looking at the mentality of the Belarusians in general. While Lukashenko has no choice but to agree to Russia using Belarus as a forward base, the general population are against war. One of the general themes of Lukashenko's dictatorship has been a fairly strong stance against war, and it's reflected in the poor combat capabilities of the Belarusian forces.

The question is whether the security forces that de facto control Belarus are likely to give up in the event of a popular revolution. Romania in 1989 might give us some clues, as the Securitate simply melted away.

On an unrelated note, there's a huge amount of chatter over the Patriot vs Russian hypersonic missiles clash that took place a couple of nights ago.

Nothing is clear at all, but it seems that Russia might have managed to hit one of the Patriot launchers at most. If they did, it's easy to replace, and Russia will have used up even more missiles that they can't replace.

 

[DustyBin]

On an unrelated note, there's a huge amount of chatter over the Patriot vs Russian hypersonic missiles clash that took place a couple of nights ago.

Nothing is clear at all, but it seems that Russia might have managed to hit one of the Patriot launchers at most. If they did, it's easy to replace, and Russia will have used up even more missiles that they can't replace.

I’ve been looking into this (as best one can using the internet!) and it looks as though part of a system may have been damaged, although it’s not clear which part exactly. (For the uninitiated, the system isn’t self-contained on a single mobile platform, it comprises several individual components spread across an area).

 

[Annetts key]

Russian claims are almost always lies. That explosion on the ground could have been caused by any number of things. Ukraine knows that important systems like each item of a Patriot missile system can’t stay in fixed positions.

So for any part of a Patriot missile system to have been hit means that (1) a Russian missile got through (unlikely as Ukraine says they were all “shot down”), (2) Russia actually knew the exact position of one or more items before they launched their missiles, (3) Ukraine did not move the targeted items between the time the Russians got their intelligence and when the missiles were in their final flight, or, that Russia got lucky and part of a intercepted missile happened to drop on an item of the Patriot missile system.

In Reporting from Ukraine’s latest video (link to Youtube) he says the explosion was caused by an intercepted missile that fell in the Soloviansk region and caused a fire in a bus station.