UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[OneOfThe48]

Internal figures not released to the public, I'd imagine

Thought it might be, was just feeling hopeful!

 

[Sly Old Fox]

It’s anecdotal but a friend of mine who has been WfH since 2020, started having to go back to the office once a week in 2021 and has now been told he has to attend three times a week (along with everybody else in the company). If similar instruction is being given by employers elsewhere it could explain the recent rise in commuting numbers.

Three times a week could well be enough to push people into buying season tickets rather than daily tickets again too.

 

[Jamesrob637]

It’s anecdotal but a friend of mine who has been WfH since 2020, started having to go back to the office once a week in 2021 and has now been told he has to attend three times a week (along with everybody else in the company). If similar instruction is being given by employers elsewhere it could explain the recent rise in commuting numbers.

Three times a week could well be enough to push people into buying season tickets rather than daily tickets again too.

Three times a week is a bit frustrating because you're paying nearly a season ticket's worth.

 

[43066]

Having seen some breakdown of this now, the increased passenger numbers in the weeks immediately after Easter are almost entirely on the suburban railways of London, with the Elizabeth Line in particular standing out. Much of it is peak time travel too, which is interesting.

It’s anecdotal but a friend of mine who has been WfH since 2020, started having to go back to the office once a week in 2021 and has now been told he has to attend three times a week (along with everybody else in the company). If similar instruction is being given by employers elsewhere it could explain the recent rise in commuting numbers.

Three times a week could well be enough to push people into buying season tickets rather than daily tickets again too.

Also anecdotally based on people I know that is exactly what is happening. People are drifting back to the office, and there’s increasingly some stick to accompany the carrot for those who remain unwilling!

 

[Mag_seven]

On the occasions where I have had to use a peak service recently the numbers on it have been considerably greater than earlier in the year.

 

[ScotGG]

So now we have booming leisure travel AND a return of commuters?

Still the Treasury seem loath to invest to encourage growth. All about the short term with them. Little thought for wider economic impact or future economic benefits

 

[317 forever]

No, they include Crossrail core journeys which they didn't include pre Covid so the figures are apples and pears. They even include Note 1 to that effect "A like-for-like comparison of rail demand would therefore show a lower recovery than stated in this publication" on this page https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...-19-pandemic/domestic-transport-usage-by-mode. The give away is that TfL is at 75-80% but National Rail is at 100-105% levels, that doesn't add up.

The quarterly individual TOC figures will give a better picture. Also passenger numbers don't pay the bills, revenue does.

Another matter is where total usage on any day is effectively the same as in 2019. It could be fewer passengers on commuter routes due to work at home but more leisure travel to other destinations such as seaside towns by people off work that day.

 

[Horizon22]

Three times a week is a bit frustrating because you're paying nearly a season ticket's worth.

I think a flexi ticket still just about works out better, especially with annual leave and maybe the occasional 2 times a week if your employer allows. Of course, if you also use that route during leisure times, then a season is more worthwhile.

 

[bramling]

So now we have booming leisure travel AND a return of commuters?

Is it really true that leisure travel is still “booming”? It’s doing okay for sure, in places at least, but there are plenty of empty off-peak trains to be found.

 

[Horizon22]

Is it really true that leisure travel is still “booming”? It’s doing okay for sure, in places at least, but there are plenty of empty off-peak trains to be found.

I think we would have to differentiate between weekday and weekend off-peak travel, to which the latter certainly is (or has boomed).

 

[43066]

So now we have booming leisure travel AND a return of commuters?

Grant Shapps interviewed on Sky yesterday claimed passenger numbers are 40% down, which hasn’t been true for a long time now.

They’re pedalling a dishonest narrative.

 

[dk1]

Grant Shapps interviewed on Sky yesterday claimed passenger numbers are 40% down which hasn’t been true for a long time.

They’re pedalling a dishonest narrative.

No surprises there with that one. Not that I heard him utter a sentence. Soon as Laura went to introduce I switched off. Can’t abide him.

 

[yorksrob]

Grant Shapps interviewed on Sky yesterday claimed passenger numbers are 40% down, which hasn’t been true for a long time now.

They’re pedalling a dishonest narrative.

For those on this forum who defend the Governments position on cuts, will they continue to do so in the knowledge that it is having to resort to outright lies to justify them.

 

[JamesT]

Grant Shapps interviewed on Sky yesterday claimed passenger numbers are 40% down, which hasn’t been true for a long time now.

They’re pedalling a dishonest narrative.

Do you have a reference for that? The only video I could find on Sky’s site was him talking about immigration numbers.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Rail engineer Gareth Dennis is quoting the following figures on revenue (not ridership) on Twitter this morning.

TOTAL REVENUE RECOVERY: 93%

BY SECTOR
London & SE: 94%
Long distance: 88%
Regional: 97%

BY PURPOSE
Commute: 86%
Leisure: 117%
Business: 38%
Intra-London: 105%

It's not clear whether this is real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) or nominal (£ values, obviously a 2023 £ is worth less than a 2019/20 £).
He didn't cite a reference, but he's followed by a lot of railway people and nobody appears to be contradicting him.

https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1658011565084246017

 

[railfan99]

BY PURPOSE
Commute: 86%
Leisure: 117%
Business: 38%
Intra-London: 105%

It's not clear whether this is real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) or nominal (£ values, obviously a 2023 £ is worth less than a 2019/20 £).
He didn't cite a reference, but he's followed by a lot of railway people and nobody appears to be contradicting him.

Are businessmen and women just not travelling in anywhere near the numbers they were on long distance trains, or is there some of that plus many typically purchasing cheaper types of tickets?

Don't businessmen and women still have to travel to meet clients, or 'do deals'/attend training courses/lobby governments?

 

[jon0844]

The Government wants to save money, cutting jobs and reducing fleets - so even if we were 100% recovered, they'll still want to cut things.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Don't businessmen and women still have to travel to meet clients, or 'do deals'/attend training courses/lobby governments?

Not that I'm classed as a "businessman" but I did do a bit of travelling to meet clients as a technical / team lead and certainly for us in person meetings that require long distance travel have all but essentially disappeared. Not totally, there are still some, but the vast vast majority of such meetings that used to require travel are now just done on Teams. Or where they are in person, the meetings are organised in a way to reduce travel and cost (e.g. time shifted to avoid morning peak, or several meetings put together on one day rather than over multiple days).

 

[12LDA28C]

Grant Shapps interviewed on Sky yesterday claimed passenger numbers are 40% down, which hasn’t been true for a long time now.

They’re pedalling a dishonest narrative.

Well that's a surprise, he's well-known for his honesty, accuracy and integrity isn't he? I wonder if he would be talking the railways down if he was still Transport Secretary?

 

[Trainbike46]

Is it really true that leisure travel is still “booming”? It’s doing okay for sure, in places at least, but there are plenty of empty off-peak trains to be found.

I saw something stating that revenue (not passenger numbers) are at:
Leisure: 117% pre-covid
Commuting: 86%
Business: 38%

So leisure is certainly booming

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==

Rail engineer Gareth Dennis is quoting the following figures on revenue (not ridership) on Twitter this morning.

TOTAL REVENUE RECOVERY: 93%

BY SECTOR
London & SE: 94%
Long distance: 88%
Regional: 97%

BY PURPOSE
Commute: 86%
Leisure: 117%
Business: 38%
Intra-London: 105%

It's not clear whether this is real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) or nominal (£ values, obviously a 2023 £ is worth less than a 2019/20 £).
He didn't cite a reference, but he's followed by a lot of railway people and nobody appears to be contradicting him.

https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1658011565084246017

I see you were ahead of me! I should have read on before replying, sorry

Gareth later clarified that it is not adjusted for inflation

 

[Horizon22]

Are businessmen and women just not travelling in anywhere near the numbers they were on long distance trains, or is there some of that plus many typically purchasing cheaper types of tickets?

Don't businessmen and women still have to travel to meet clients, or 'do deals'/attend training courses/lobby governments?

Zoom and Teams I would suggest making much of their travel redundant.

Plus I imagine the cost. I agree it's hard to differentiate "business" from other types, especially if its not done through corporate accounts as much.

 

[Iskra]

Rail engineer Gareth Dennis is quoting the following figures on revenue (not ridership) on Twitter this morning.

TOTAL REVENUE RECOVERY: 93%

BY SECTOR
London & SE: 94%
Long distance: 88%
Regional: 97%

BY PURPOSE
Commute: 86%
Leisure: 117%
Business: 38%
Intra-London: 105%

It's not clear whether this is real (i.e. adjusted for inflation) or nominal (£ values, obviously a 2023 £ is worth less than a 2019/20 £).
He didn't cite a reference, but he's followed by a lot of railway people and nobody appears to be contradicting him.

https://twitter.com/GarethDennis/status/1658011565084246017

That's quite interesting. Also assuming regional and leisure journeys are most disrupted by strikes and unreliability, that shows strong growth in those areas. If only the railways could cater for that demand, they'd be in a much stronger revenue position and have a decent argument against austerity measures.

 

[railfan99]

Zoom and Teams I would suggest making much of their travel redundant.

Plus I imagine the cost. I agree it's hard to differentiate "business" from other types, especially if its not done through corporate accounts as much.

Fair enough, but on my limited occasions of weekday daytime travel on Avanti West Coast and GWR in September 2022, first class was well patronised (as was economy).

Some by their attire and quick logging on to a laptop weren't leisure travellsrs.

 

[Mag_seven]

Zoom and Teams I would suggest making much of their travel redundant.

Exactly this - the days of paying £300 or whatever for an open ticket to London just to attend a meeting are over. And that is a massive hole in the revenue stream for a TOC.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Plus I imagine the cost.

Yep. To further what I said in my other reply, why on earth would the company I work for pay over a grand for 5 of us to travel from Bristol to London when the exact same meeting can be had with the exact same outcomes with them paying out no money with the meeting being held on Teams? Don't forget its not only the cost of the train fare itself but also the "cost" of the travel time for some jobs where if they weren't travelling they would be doing work directly billable to clients (which for more senior people is a hell of a lot more than the train fare).

Fair enough, but on my limited occasions of weekday daytime travel on Avanti West Coast and GWR in September 2022, first class was well patronised (as was economy).

Some by their attire and quick logging on to a laptop weren't leisure travellsrs.

Tbh I do wonder where those travelers are coming from given many companies now explicitly ban first class travel unless it works out cheaper than standard (due to advances etc).

 

[12LDA28C]

Fair enough, but on my limited occasions of weekday daytime travel on Avanti West Coast and GWR in September 2022, first class was well patronised (as was economy).

I sincerely hope UK rail operators are not referring to standard class as 'economy' these days. I know some want the railways to be run like airlines but that would be a step too far...

 

[Horizon22]

Fair enough, but on my limited occasions of weekday daytime travel on Avanti West Coast and GWR in September 2022, first class was well patronised (as was economy).

Some by their attire and quick logging on to a laptop weren't leisure travellsrs.

But how do you know they are not commuters as opposed to just "business"? A lot of people have more flexible working practices these days.

Business travel was always a huge cash cow (corporate bookings also normally completely unaware of discounts and best fares practice and in need of ultimate flexibility). Even before Covid, this sort of travel was on the decline, its just being accelerated.

 

[railfan99]

But how do you know they are not commuters as opposed to just "business"? A lot of people have more flexible working practices these days.

I don't think a 'commuter' would be travelling from Carlisle or Plymouth to London. I saw both IIRC who looked like 'businessmen'.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I saw something stating that revenue (not passenger numbers) are at:
Leisure: 117% pre-covid
Commuting: 86%
Business: 38%

So leisure is certainly booming

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==


I see you were ahead of me! I should have read on before replying, sorry

Gareth later clarified that it is not adjusted for inflation

So nothing is booming then. The BoE inflation calculator show £100 in 2019 would cost £119.52 now, so revenue from leisure is a touch below where it was 4 years ago and revenue from commuting and business are absolutely nowhere near pre-Covid levels.

 

[Xavi]

With Anytime business revenue at just 38%, scrapping current Anytime fares is where the revenue opportunity lies. Face-to-face meetings are much more productive than Teams and businesses will pay to get people together providing the cost is reasonable. This would redistribute volume to what are now under-utilised peak long-distance trains.

Some leisure trips would also shift to earlier services (even without cheaper advance fares) leading to a revenue pickup in that market.

Before anyone says it wouldn’t work, remember that Anytime fares have not been regulated since privatisation whereas seasons and off-peak have. The difference is now too great, private TOCs pushed the Anytime increases too far and the pandemic has exposed this.

Teams does have a role, it’s a great tool for many meetings and I use it every day, but businesses that remove face-to-face meetings altogether will fail.