UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[quantinghome]

I imagine Crossrail accounts for 80% of that and the other trains are still carting around mostly fresh air.

Surely this is an argument for investing in rail, that there is suppressed demand which a new/upgraded railway can tap into?

 

[dk1]

I imagine Crossrail accounts for 80% of that and the other trains are still carting around mostly fresh air.

That has to win an award for the most inaccurate quote of the month so far.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 May 2023 ==

Unless it was just fishing.

 

[paul1609]

Pleasingly, in 2021-22 Normans Bay on the south coast line (officially called East Coastway line) had a total of 17,126 entries and exits against in 2018-19 13,512. However other stations nearby still have not 'recovered'.

It's the staycation bonus and the large Camping and Caravan club site next to the station. People are arriving by car/motorhome then taking the train to Hastings/Eastbourne/Brighton.

 

[HSTEd]

Surely this is an argument for investing in rail, that there is suppressed demand which a new/upgraded railway can tap into?

Sort of, but mostly it's an argument for building Crossrail 2 and similar metro projects and not bothering with the rest!

The fact that Crossrail now manages 15% of all Network Rail journeys is rather telling about how low performance the rest of the system is by comparison

 

[Sly Old Fox]

That has to win an award for the most inaccurate quote of the month so far.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 May 2023 ==

Unless it was just fishing.

There was a hint of sarcasm, which possibly didn’t come across in text format, as it’s the sort of thing that gets said every time there is positivity about passenger numbers.

 

[PGAT]

Even with Crossrail in the mix the figures are still in their high 80s - low 90s. Very nice to see

 

[dk1]

There was a hint of sarcasm, which possibly didn’t come across in text format, as it’s the sort of thing that gets said every time there is positivity about passenger numbers.

Nothing could be worse than ‘but nobody travels by train anymore’ that appears on Twitter etc. It was slightly amusing & somewhat true back in 2020/2021 but irritating beyond belief & far from the truth now.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

Nothing could be worse than ‘but nobody travels by train anymore’ that appears on Twitter etc. It was slightly amusing & somewhat true back in 2020/2021 but irritating beyond belief & far from the truth now.

I agree. Having taken far more passengers than seats into London in yesterday’s morning peak, I’m well aware just how very busy it is again.

 

[squizzler]

Nothing could be worse than ‘but nobody travels by train anymore’ that appears on Twitter etc.

If you still post on twitter then you will be somewhat an expert in a service being abandoned by its users, LOL.

 

[XCTurbostar]

Nothing could be worse than ‘but nobody travels by train anymore’ that appears on Twitter etc. It was slightly amusing & somewhat true back in 2020/2021 but irritating beyond belief & far from the truth now.

Indeed, those words run in my head everytime I board/see a completely rammed 5-car Meridian bound for London..

 

[dk1]

If you still post on twitter then you will be somewhat an expert in a service being abandoned by its users, LOL.

Very true haha

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 May 2023 ==

Indeed, those words run in my head everytime I board/see a completely rammed 5-car Meridian bound for London..

It’s everywhere mate. Midweek ECML & others last week around Newcastle just the same.

 

[Stephen42]

It's only the Paddington -Abbey Wood section that has been added.
The other parts had trains, even if they were branded differently.
I suspect many fromAbbey Wood and possibly Woolwich used trains before, but to Charing Cross etc.

Many trains here in Wiltshire and South West are well loaded, and some are even leaving passengers on platform because they can't all fit in, so I think you are wrong about all others carting fresh air.

GWR seems to have cut its fleet, it is not providing anything like 106% of pre-Covid fleet size in South West, which is why so many keep struggling to get on local trains.

The Paddington to Abbey Wood section may not be long, but it has a lot of trains with high capacities so makes a significant difference to the numbers.

Also as posted before the methodology is rolling averages with several caveats that mean individual peaks/troughs could be timing differences than actual travel patterns. The average across the dates of period 1 2023 is 98%. After adjusting for Elizabeth line journeys it's probably under 90% like for like.

That's not to say there aren't areas where on some days usage is 106% or higher, it's just that on average the picture isn't quite so healthy.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

From a purely industry point of view, there is now becoming more pressure/ encouragement than ever for employees to attend offices on a regular basis.. not every day but multiple times a week so commuting is set to increase. Season tickets might need to change to capitalise on the 3 days/ 2 days a week work day.

Also my feeling is that there will be more long distance commuting as from the working from home and great resignation of the past 2 years there are more people working some distance from the office.

Good to see passenger levels at over 100% even with the health warnings on the figures

 

[squizzler]

We hear a lot about the effect of Elizabeth Line but rather less about that the railway is once again exceeding record levels of traffic on a network that even with this addition remains greatly reduced from its heyday.

 

[43066]

I'd have thought the numerous strike days would have permanently turned many off rail travel. Some may have abandoned the mode but to see usage above pre-COVID passenger numbers overall is outstanding.

There’s no evidence this has ever happened previously, no reason to suppose these strikes are any different.

Imagine what the figures would be if:
TransPennine, Northern and TfW ran a reliable service….
XC restored their pre Covid timetable
Nuneham viaduct hadn’t been deemed unsafe
£2 bus tickets competing on some very local journeys
Trains reported full - so can’t book
Can’t book certain tickets more than a couple of weeks in advance, especially at weekends
Not to mention all the strikes and threat of strikes

Absolutely. Of course the government will want to talk down the recovery for their own reasons.

From a purely industry point of view, there is now becoming more pressure/ encouragement than ever for employees to attend offices on a regular basis.. not every day but multiple times a week so commuting is set to increase. Season tickets might need to change to capitalise on the 3 days/ 2 days a week work day.

Also my feeling is that there will be more long distance commuting as from the working from home and great resignation of the past 2 years there are more people working some distance from the office.

Good to see passenger levels at over 100% even with the health warnings on the figures

Indeed. There’s a way still to go, but there is a slow and steady march back towards pre Covid “normal”.

 

[Xavi]

6th degree polynomial to show trend and remove impact of strikes (rolling averages used elsewhere are not as suitable).

I posted a similar chart 6 months or ago including a forecast. This proved to be very accurate despite having been dismissed by some on this forum as too optimistic.

Everyone on this forum appreciates the revenue problem, which makes the case for fares reform stronger than ever and yet, despite promises, no action yet from DfT.

 

[railfan99]

Have any mainstream media (print plus online, TV news, major radio such as BBC and talkback) or non-rail enthusiast blog sites and travel YouTubers, Twitter, Facebook/Instagram/TikTok yet cottoned on to this great news for rail usage?

How do you perceive rail's market share of non-car modes is now on major routes compared to 2019, i.e. is it stagnant compared to National Express and other road coaches?

 

[Krokodil]

Sort of, but mostly it's an argument for building Crossrail 2 and similar metro projects and not bothering with the rest!

We certainly need to bother with HS2 and NPR. Both should boost ridership considerably. We also need to get on with replacing XC's Voyagers. Go for 7-coach units, at the Op Princess frequencies. There's plenty of stifled demand on XC. Even regional reopenings have been very successful - Borders Line for example.

 

[Horizon22]

Lots of potential anomalies to skew overall figures. The one I usually highlight is the effect of split ticketing

How much Crossrail traffic has been abstracted from the older Underground ines?

Most reports say limited. However it does account for about 20% of all rail journeys so very hard to do an exact like-for-like comparison.

 

[jon0844]

From a purely industry point of view, there is now becoming more pressure/ encouragement than ever for employees to attend offices on a regular basis.. not every day but multiple times a week so commuting is set to increase. Season tickets might need to change to capitalise on the 3 days/ 2 days a week work day.

I believe quite a few firms (in different fields) introduced new policies on working that took affect in April this year, with some people are now back to being in the office full time. I expect any increase in season ticket sales will show how many people are doing this.

I think that despite the cost of commuting, some people may now be at a point where they're sick of working from home - but of course, in due course they'll miss it again - hence why I think hybrid working probably suits best.

 

[TomG]

I can't drive for medical reasons. So I am restricted to public transport...which isn't always that convenient/does not always run at the times I need. One thing I hate doing is asking for lifts. I am part of a drama group and, due to where I live and lack of buses (and First Group is not exactly reliable) I get a lift too and from my drama, and have to stay overnight at my parents.

I don't think, however, that making it more expensive/difficult to drive (e.g. ULEZ, traffic-free zones. lowering speed limits etc) is the way to tackle issues relating to getting people on public transport/climate change.

Its also important to realise, in relation to cars, that - what with children living at home longer older children may have a car of their own.

Additionally public transport might take longer, and not be as direct (especially when you count walking door to door). For instance from mine to my parents (about 10 miles) might take 30 mins or more (depending on how lucky I am with the trains) by public transport whereas it could take less than 20 mins by car.

 

[HSTEd]

We certainly need to bother with HS2 and NPR. Both should boost ridership considerably.

NPR has turned into a mess of undeliverable upgrades and vague aspirations.

It's likely economically favoured to cut off all significant upgrades on the classic network and focus on Crossrail style metro lines instead.
HS2 would be operated as a high intensity Shinkansen to core destinations and axe most of the classic through services.

Even regional reopenings have been very successful - Borders Line for example.

Successful in political terms, perhaps. But economically it's just become yet another subsidy pit. That's not really what we need more of right now.

But it only got built because Labour needed Lib DEm votes, the business case was not and is not good.

 

[Xavi]

But economically it's just become yet another subsidy pit.

If you ignore the wider economic benefits.

 

[Bald Rick]

If you ignore the wider economic benefits.

Even with the wider economic benefits, sadly.

It has however been quite good for the local economy (ie near the line), but certainly not the best spend of £400m+ in 2010s money to achieve that.

 

[Xavi]

If we made a cash profit on every transaction there’d be no taxation.

Before redirecting expenditure to defence, health or education, the real benefits (not financial) delivered by quality transport should be considered e.g., access to a wider choice of education and jobs.

Alternatively, perhaps we could re-wild every rural road and railway.

 

[HSTEd]

Before redirecting expenditure to defence, health or education, the real benefits (not financial) delivered by quality transport should be considered e.g., access to a wider choice of education and jobs.

Alternatively, perhaps we could re-wild every rural road and railway.

The ~£400m+ (mid 2010s) money could have bought a substantially greater transport improvement spent somewhere other than the Borders line.
That's almost as much as the first tranche of Phase 3 lines for Manchester Metrolink. which are used by far more people than the Borders line ever will be.

And Metrolink, unlike the borders, requires no ongoing operational subsidy (at least before coronavirus)

The reality is that trying to provide rail services to areas as sparsely populated as the Borders will significantly worsen the railways financial position in the long term.

 

[railfan99]

The reality is that trying to provide rail services to areas as sparsely populated as the Borders will significantly worsen the railways financial position in the long term.

I quickly looked up some patronage figures, which are 'double counted' as they include boardings and alightings.

In 2021-22, partially affected by COVID lockdowns and working-at-home, Tweedbank station had 204,000 entries/exits, so about 102,000 passenger trips originated from there.

Galashiels had 187,000, so about 93,000. had 60,000 = 30,000. Gorebridge: 60,000 = 30,000 boardings. Stow: 43,000 = 21,000. Newtongrange: 75,000 = 37,000. Eskbank: 159,000 = 79,000.

Shawfair: 27,000 = 13,000 boardings. Newcraighall: 121,000 = 60,000. Brunstane: 78,000 = 39,000.

So from three stations alone, that's 513,000 annual boardings.

I have slightly overestimated the number of annual departures at 204 per week or 10608 annually, as presumbly in Scotland some public holidays may have a Sunday service when there's typically only 15 trains compared with 31 on Saturdays and 32 on Sundays.

So at least 49 paying passengers are using each train, even though commuting will have been lower with so many not attending offices five days a week.

Since the 2021-22 figures were compiled, one would expect usage to have further increased.

Worldwide, this is quite reasonable usage!

 

[Bald Rick]

DfT have just updated the journeys va pre-pandemic spreadsheet, data from column G (rail)

Wed 5 April 91%
6 April 92%
Good Friday7 April 101%
8 April102%
9 April 101%
Bank hol 10 April 105%
11 April 105%
12 April 106%
13 April 106%
14 April 102%
Sat 15 April 103%
16 April 104%
17 April 102%
18 April 104%
19 April 97%
20 April 94%
21 April 96%
Sat 22 April 96%
23 April 97%
24 April 96%
25 April 95%
26 April 104%
27 April 104%
28 April 98%
Sat 29 April 99%
30 Apr 98%
Bank hol Mon 1 May 98%

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain.

www.gov.uk

First time multiple days over 100%
Think 106% is highest vs pre pandemic

Having seen some breakdown of this now, the increased passenger numbers in the weeks immediately after Easter are almost entirely on the suburban railways of London, with the Elizabeth Line in particular standing out. Much of it is peak time travel too, which is interesting.

 

[OneOfThe48]

Having seen some breakdown of this now, the increased passenger numbers in the weeks immediately after Easter are almost entirely on the suburban railways of London, with the Elizabeth Line in particular standing out. Much of it is peak time travel too, which is interesting.

Where are you looking at the breakdown?

 

[Watershed]

Where are you looking at the breakdown?

Internal figures not released to the public, I'd imagine