2023 English and Northern Irish Local Elections

[MikeWM]

Even if the next election is delayed until October, it won't be in the 18-24 month bracket.

True, but I think 17.5 months is rather splitting hairs at that point

 

[gg1]

I see that there has been a decent showing for the Greens this time around.

I wonder if this debunks the myth that the electorate aren't interested in issues such as public transport.

I suspect a significant chunk of the swing to the Greens will be from Corbyn fans unhappy at Labour's move back to centre.

Personally I think public transport is something a lot of voters care about anyway, maybe not the majority but a very large minority well in excess of the numbers who vote Green.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect a significant chunk of the swing to the Greens will be from Corbyn fans unhappy at Labour's move back to centre.

Personally I think public transport is something a lot of voters care about anyway, maybe not the majority but a very large minority well in excess of the numbers who vote Green.

Possibly true. The Greens are fairly radical in their way.

 

[birchesgreen]

Either way, they appear to be screwed from both ends.

Blimey thats a shame isn't it?

I wonder if the West Midlands is the anomaly because of the Mayor of West Midlands Andy Street who despite being a Conservative managed to increase his vote share in the last Mayoral election and is generally quite popular.

A lot of seats arn't up for grabs, Birmingham for example.

 

[Typhoon]

Poor results for the Conservatives in the south-east continue. Lewes (East Sussex) now has no Conservative councillors - 17 Green, 15 Lib Dem, 9 Labour. They did have a LibDem MP until 2015 but to go to zero must be a bit of a shock, they were the largest party until yesterday.

 

[Gloster]

According to the BBC the Conservatives have passed the 1000 losses and there are still thirteen councils to declare. The professed claim that they were expecting to lose 1000 seats so that anything less than that could be claimed as a victory has gone up in smoke. (Tee-hee.)

 

[Snow1964]

Latest (after 218 of 230 councils)

Conservatives have lost over 1000 councillors (-1013)
Labour up 508
Lib Dem up 403
Greens up 237

Councils :
Conservatives -45
Labour +21
Lib Dem +11
no overall control +11

 

[KashmireHawker]

Latest (after 218 of 230 councils)

Conservatives have lost over 1000 councillors (-1013)
Labour up 508
Lib Dem up 403
Greens up 237

Councils :
Conservatives -45
Labour +21
Lib Dem +11
no overall control +11

I came within just 46 votes, of adding an extra Labour gain and extra Conservative loss in Penn ward, Wolverhampton.

Gutted is the word, but nationally this is a truly siesmic shift in public opinion and one which I massively welcome.

 

[jfollows]

On a local level, independents have won all the seats they stood for in Wilmslow (5 seats) and Handforth (2 seats), helped by not having any Labour candidates. So Cheshire East, yet to declare, will probably see Conservatives squeezed out by independents in the north (my area) and Labour in the south (Crewe etc.). [Post 21 above has more details, but Conservatives were already out of power versus an independent+Labour coalition since 2019]
In Alderley Edge - one ward - the incumbent independent (and deputy leader of Cheshire East Council) received 79% of the vote versus 14% Conservative and 7% Green.

EDIT In the end the Conservative vote held in the rest of the county, 33 seats overall, no change. So presumably we'll go back to the Labour+independent coalition for the next four years. Fine with me.

FURTHER EDIT And, on Wilmslow Town Council, we have gone from 10 Conservative, 4 Residents of Wilmslow & 1 Liberal Democrat to 15 Residents of Wilmslow. The Conservatives used the silly "Local Conservatives" appellation which seems not to have helped them at all.

 

[nw1]

Poor results for the Conservatives in the south-east continue. Lewes (East Sussex) now has no Conservative councillors - 17 Green, 15 Lib Dem, 9 Labour. They did have a LibDem MP until 2015 but to go to zero must be a bit of a shock, they were the largest party until yesterday.

This sort of detail is missing from the BBC updates where a hung council is a hung council is a hung council - so is interesting to see.

Lewes has had some strange electoral tendencies: Remain, IIRC, and quite strongly so, and Lib Dem for a good while - but surprisingly keen on the Tories from 2015 until now.

 

[JD2168]

Sheffield has remained in No Overall Control with the numbers staying the same as Labour & the Green Party exchanged a seat. The Labour Party has forced the resignation of the Labour leader Terry Fox & put the local Labour Party in Special Measures. This comes after recent controversy about Tree Felling, Clean Air Zone & Shipping Containers.

 

[brad465]

Slough and Hartlepool came within a handful of votes of being an outright majority for the largest party (Tories 25 votes short in Slough; Labour 3 votes short in Hartlepool), to the point that if voter ID was suppressing votes, it could have been the difference maker in these areas.

 

[Gloster]

This sort of detail is missing from the BBC updates where a hung council is a hung council is a hung council - so is interesting to see.

The BBC puts up the situation for the council as a whole (hold, gain or no overall control) as soon as it is announced. The detailed breakdown of seats follows a bit later, once it has been checked.

 

[duncanp]

Doesn't seem to be a huge amount of change in the West Midlands as a whole.

Of the 164 seats up for election, Dudley, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Solihull and Coventry combined have seen net changes of Labour -1, Tories +1, Lib Dem +1, Independent -1

So Labour have a net  loss of seats in the West Midlands.

This is the sort of area where they need to gain seats if they want to win the next general election.

 

[RichJF]

Poor results for the Conservatives in the south-east continue. Lewes (East Sussex) now has no Conservative councillors - 17 Green, 15 Lib Dem, 9 Labour. They did have a LibDem MP until 2015 but to go to zero must be a bit of a shock, they were the largest party until yesterday.

My local (Mid-Sussex) has gone to NOC. That's a welcome seismic shift given the Tories often parachute one of their candidates into the very ward I vote in!

Massively successful night for Lib Dems on the South Coast & in Sussex/Surrey.

 

[North-Valiant]

So Labour have a net  loss of seats in the West Midlands.

This is the sort of area where they need to gain seats if they want to win the next general election.

I've been wondering to myself if Labour are going to do more poorly in future in places where there are various large concentrations of religious groups. Religious Groups are more likely to be socially conservative and may care more about 'what a women is' or something along those lines, than other, non religious, people.

Obviously the West Midlands is very ethnically diverse

 

[DarloRich]

So Labour have a net  loss of seats in the West Midlands.

This is the sort of area where they need to gain seats if they want to win the next general election.

That looks like straw clutching. The Tories have taken a well deserved beating. Hopefully tactical voting will deliver another one at the next general election. Get 'em out.

 

[nw1]

So Labour have a net  loss of seats in the West Midlands.

This is the sort of area where they need to gain seats if they want to win the next general election.

One small area of the country, going against the national trend, and perhaps explained by the West Midlands mayor being unusually popular for a Tory (see posts above).

One could argue conversely that Labour did well in 2019 because they gained Putney.

 

[Herefordian]

So Labour have a net  loss of seats in the West Midlands.

This is the sort of area where they need to gain seats if they want to win the next general election.

A net loss of one seat. One. Nationally, Labour has a net gain of 527 seats.

On the other hand, the Conservatives have a net loss of 1,061 seats.

If I were a Conservative supporter, I'd be more worried about my own party's dismal performance.

 

[dangie]

Labour have gained seats. Lib Dem’s have gained seats. Greens have gained seats.
But the voting public don’t want Labour. They don’t want the Lib Dem’s. They don’t want the Greens.

They want anyone but the Conservatives……

 

[Kite159]

Task 1 for all those new labour councils - massive pay rises for themselves
Task 2 - buying any shopping centres on life support* for top dollar to try and 'save' them from the evil private sector and other wasteful expenses like £2,000 top end laptops for work.

There will be many disappointed voters that Kiers 'promises' that a vote for him would mean NHS waiting lists get slashed (waiting list to get onto the waiting list and council tax won't rise. He better get some actual policies** ready for the next election other "we are not as bad as the Tories" and "we will tax the rich so much they won't simply decide to move abroad so we get nothing". Although why would anybody believe Sir Kier, for he does change his mind depending which way the bandwagon is moving.

* - the sort which have more empty units than filled, on a death feedback loop.
** Other than bringing back pointless Covid restrictions if that cold bug makes a come back in the winter.

 

[gnolife]

Task 1 for all those new labour councils - massive pay rises for themselves
Task 2 - buying any shopping centres on life support* for top dollar to try and 'save' them from the evil private sector and other wasteful expenses like £2,000 top end laptops for work.

There will be many disappointed voters that Kiers 'promises' that a vote for him would mean NHS waiting lists get slashed (waiting list to get onto the waiting list and council tax won't rise. He better get some actual policies** ready for the next election other "we are not as bad as the Tories" and "we will tax the rich so much they won't simply decide to move abroad so we get nothing". Although why would anybody believe Sir Kier, for he does change his mind depending which way the bandwagon is moving.

* - the sort which have more empty units than filled, on a death feedback loop.
** Other than bringing back pointless Covid restrictions if that cold bug makes a come back in the winter.

Task 1 for Wyre Forest Council - massive pay rises for themselves...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

John Curtice (who generally knows his stuff) is saying that the vote share shown yesterday, extrapolated over the country, would make Labour the biggest party at the next General Election - but about 20 seats short of a majority. Which doesn't seem much of an endorsement for Starmer's leadership, given how much the Tories are detested by just about everyone at this point, including most of their own supporters.

Labour vote share appears to be about 8-10% ahead of the Tories. The last two times we were 18-24 months out from a change in government, the gap was much much larger - in 1995 the Labour lead was 22%, and in 2008 the Tories were 20% ahead of Labour.

Labour 8-10% ahead is a very significant lead in share of the vote, and you'd normally expect a party that far ahead to easily win a general election outright, so I'm a bit surprised that John Curtice is only predicting Labour to be the largest party, not to have a majority of MPs.

Looking more into the figures - the share of vote general election projection seems to be hovering around: Labour 35%, Tories 26%, LibDems 20% - that's pretty low votes for both the main parties and very high for the LibDems. So my suspicion is that the projection has a lot of LibDem (and perhaps, SNP) seats preventing Labour from getting a majority in Parliament. But the LibDems usually do a lot better in council elections than general elections, so I don't believe they will get anything like 20% next year (although they will do enough in key constituencies to take a number of seats off the Tories). I'm therefore still thinking a Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next election.

 

[778]

I'm therefore still thinking a Labour majority is the most likely outcome at the next election.

Not a 1997 type majority though?

 

[Herefordian]

Task 1 for all those new labour councils - massive pay rises for themselves
Task 2 - buying any shopping centres on life support* for top dollar to try and 'save' them from the evil private sector and other wasteful expenses like £2,000 top end laptops for work.

There will be many disappointed voters that Kiers 'promises' that a vote for him would mean NHS waiting lists get slashed (waiting list to get onto the waiting list and council tax won't rise. He better get some actual policies** ready for the next election other "we are not as bad as the Tories" and "we will tax the rich so much they won't simply decide to move abroad so we get nothing". Although why would anybody believe Sir Kier, for he does change his mind depending which way the bandwagon is moving.

* - the sort which have more empty units than filled, on a death feedback loop.
** Other than bringing back pointless Covid restrictions if that cold bug makes a come back in the winter.

Genuine question. Why are you more worried about Labour?

Your party has just lost over 1,000 council seats.

We're in £2.5tn of debt. Awful living standards. Diabolical public services.

The post-2010 Conservatives don't have a good track record.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Not a 1997 type majority though?

I would definitely not expect a 1997-type majority at this stage. That was a 13% lead in actual votes, with Labour's count of MPs further boosted by anti-Tory tactical voting. Plus most of Scotland in those days elected Labour, rather than SNP, MPs.

 

[Herefordian]

Not a 1997 type majority though?

I don't think so. Low to mid 20s is my guess.

To get over 400 seats from a starting point of 196 is unlikely.

 

[brad465]

So Labour have a net  loss of seats in the West Midlands.

This is the sort of area where they need to gain seats if they want to win the next general election.

One small area of the country, going against the national trend, and perhaps explained by the West Midlands mayor being unusually popular for a Tory (see posts above).

There are usually odd locations that buck the overall trend in any given local or General Election, the one below from @nw1 in 2019 is one, but also in 2021 Labour made gains in some South-East councils, as well as Andy Burnham winning re-election as Greater Manchester Mayor by a landslide, while the party put in a dire performance nationally.

One could argue conversely that Labour did well in 2019 because they gained Putney.

 

[birchesgreen]

I've been wondering to myself if Labour are going to do more poorly in future in places where there are various large concentrations of religious groups. Religious Groups are more likely to be socially conservative and may care more about 'what a women is' or something along those lines, than other, non religious, people.

Obviously the West Midlands is very ethnically diverse

I doubt that is an issue in those areas at all.

 

[Snow1964]

Labour 8-10% ahead is a very significant lead in share of the vote, and you'd normally expect a party that far ahead to easily win a general election outright, so I'm a bit surprised that John Curtice is only predicting Labour to be the largest party, not to have a majority of MPs.

Labour predicted to be about 20 seats short of a Parliamentary majority (about 305 of 650 seats).

It appears to be because Labour haven't been that strong in Midlands, and Lib Dem's have been winning huge areas South West of line from Sussex to Cotswolds. There are areas in West (eg Malvern, Tewkesbury) where Labour have no Councillors.

Apart from a few North East seats, weren't any elections in north or Scotland so not clear if Labour can do well there. Similarly weren't any elections in Berkshire, Bucks, Wilts, Dorset, Somerset so difficult to predict extent of Lib Dem strength area.

The other one is boundary commission is re-balancing the constituency size, so north losing a few and south getting more, which will probably cost Labour a handful of seats.

So if Labour end up about 20 seats short, they are going to have to work with others, which will modify their agenda, depending on what coalitions they choose. Likely to have a choice of working with SNP or Lib Dems (both about 40-50 seats), or Others (Welsh, Northern Ireland parties etc) which could be 10-25 seats.