2023 English and Northern Irish Local Elections

[birchesgreen]

Except for my local council (Sandwell) where there was, er, a swing TO the Conservatives.

Not surprising really when you consider the bunch of Muppets we have in charge, who think they own the place, are so incompetent that the government had to send in commissioners to run the place instead

Well you always like local anomalies in local elections such as in the People's Democratic Republic of Sandwell.

 

[DunsBus]

I see that in Rushmoor, all five council seats in Aldershot have flipped to Labour. Aldershot has been staunch Tory territory for as far back as I can remember.

Although the Tories still control Rushmoor, their majority has almost halved.

 

[nw1]

I'm awaiting my ward with interest.

It's been staunchly Tory since at least the 90s, and probably longer (though a split opposition vote has been a factor in recent years). Last year the Lib Dems made a gain. What's been notable this time has been the number of Lib Dem posters up, and very few Tory posters indeed.

We got three votes this time, so a significant chance of the Tories losing this ward entirely. One of the three Tory candidates is long-standing (so the most likely to retain their seat), one is a newcomer, and one seems to have fled from a neighbouring ward.

Demographic changes are also playing a significant role here in shifting the ward away from the Tories.

Sorry, should be a separate post:

If there is a pattern so far, the biggest Tory support from these results seems to be in the east, rather than the south or the Midlands, with Essex in particular seemingly Tory Central with the Tories retaining Harlow and Braintree. Thus, perhaps, the East, rather than the South, is the new "Tory heartland".

Perhaps this part of the country has a particularly high proportion of the electorate exhibiting a combination of both social and economic conservatism, which is necessary to ensure a Tory vote right now.

 

[jfollows]

East Hertfordshire went from all 50 seats Conservative in 2015 to 17 Green today as the largest party, 16 Conservative, LibDem 10 , Labour 5, 2 yet to declare (recounts, too close to call). Similar in many other places or are there specific reasons here for the Green vote I wonder?
EDIT 19-16-10-5 Gr-Co-LD-La final after recount. So Green+Labour not enough for a majority. One or both of the two recounts ended up with Green winning by one vote!

 

[Thirteen]

The Greens seem to be a popular third party choice, if you look at the London Mayoral elections from 2 years ago, they actually increased their share and votes while Labour went down, the Conservatives IIRC were down in vote numbers but slightly increased vote share.

If the GE is the same day as the London Mayoral Election, it'll be interesting to see if Labour increases their vote share or if it'll flat or down. I think the fact there's no credible alternatives from the other parties means that it's a shoe in for Sadiq Khan to win a third term.

 

[Herefordian]

I voted for the incumbent Independent. Again, no Labour candidate in my ward.

Not many results declared here yet. Will keep an eye out during the day.

 

[MikeWM]

In East Cambs, looks like finishing as an exact repeat of 2019 - 15 Tories, 13 Lib Dems. They shuffled a few seats between them but in the end the results are remarkably similar to 2019.

Not a bad result - whatever I think about the Tories nationally, they don't seem to do a bad job of running the council.

 

[Cross City]

My area of Bromsgrove moving to NOC from Conservative is massive. My ward alone went from a strong Tory majority to the Lib Dem but trouncing the incumbent with 3x the vote.

Sandi Jarvis is the MP here and it’s been solidly Tory for decades.

Next door Stratford going Lib Dem is also big.

 

[nw1]

My area of Bromsgrove moving to NOC from Conservative is massive.

I misread this as "my area of Bromsgrove moving from NOC to Conservative is massive", and got worried just for a couple of seconds!

Next door Stratford going Lib Dem is also big.

The Zahawi effect, at least partly?

 

[jfollows]

I don't think it's too surprising as a generalisation (https://twitter.com/drjennings/):

An update on how the #LocalElections2023 vote is looking by Brexit vote. We continue to see a clear pattern where the Conservatives are losing most support in Remain voting areas, while Labour is gaining most in places that voted Leave in 2016.
@SkyNews

 

[nw1]

I don't think it's too surprising as a generalisation (https://twitter.com/drjennings/):

View attachment 134475

A sign that many Brexiters "lent" the Tories their vote and are now taking it away again, while Remainers are still annoyed at them and aren't giving their vote back?

Either way, they appear to be screwed from both ends.

 

[jfollows]

I see that in Rushmoor, all five council seats in Aldershot have flipped to Labour. Aldershot has been staunch Tory territory for as far back as I can remember.

Although the Tories still control Rushmoor, their majority has almost halved.

Bracknell Forest went Labour today also, 22 out of 41 seats

 

[brad465]

The council that I think will be most interesting to watch out for I think is Bracknell Forest: It is very strongly Conservative controlled (they have all but 5 seats), but there is a suspected electoral pact between Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens to the point they are not standing against each other:

Frustration at Labour and Lib Dem HQs as local parties ‘go rogue’ to create progressive alliance

List of council candidates in Tory heartland of Bracknell reveals de facto pact between opposition parties, undermining national positions

www.theguardian.com

Bracknell Forest went Labour today also, 22 out of 41 seats

As per my post above, there was a formal pact in place in this council, which will have been the main factor in Labour gaining control.

 

[RichJF]

Tories have lost Wealden council (neighbouring one to me). That's been Conservative for decades.

Labour even gained a seat there for the first time in 50 years. You know it's bad when staunch Tory Surrey/Sussex councils are falling.

 

[Cross City]

Sunak today: people want us to stop the small boats

The people of Dover today: vote in Labour.

 

[gg1]

Except for my local council (Sandwell) where there was, er, a swing TO the Conservatives.

Not surprising really when you consider the bunch of Muppets we have in charge, who think they own the place, are so incompetent that the government had to send in commissioners to run the place instead

Well you always like local anomalies in local elections such as in the People's Democratic Republic of Sandwell.

Doesn't seem to be a huge amount of change in the West Midlands as a whole.

Of the 164 seats up for election, Dudley, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Solihull and Coventry combined have seen net changes of Labour -1, Tories +1, Lib Dem +1, Independent -1

 

[Thirteen]

I wonder if the West Midlands is the anomaly because of the Mayor of West Midlands Andy Street who despite being a Conservative managed to increase his vote share in the last Mayoral election and is generally quite popular.

 

[Typhoon]

Tories have lost Wealden council (neighbouring one to me). That's been Conservative for decades.

Labour even gained a seat there for the first time in 50 years. You know it's bad when staunch Tory Surrey/Sussex councils are falling.

I was just looking at that. They lost 26 seats, and now are behind the Greens and LibDems. It is perhaps worth mentioning that it really is a few smallish towns (Crowborough, Uckfield, Hailsham) and loads of Areas of Outstanding National Beauty.

It is in the Conservative heartlands that they are doing badly. For all this 'Bring Back Boris', I suspect he is part of the problem, his disregard for the very things that voters think are 'right'. That and Truss' appalling budget. Sunak suffering as a result.

 

[Herefordian]

A trend-bucking result in Herefordshire. The Conservatives emerge as the largest party.

Conservative: 21 (+8)
Liberal Democrats: 12 (+5)
Green: 9 (+2)
Independent: 8 (-10)
It's Our County: 2 (-5)
Labour: 1 (+1)

27 needed for a majority.

My councillor retained their seat, which is pleasing.

 

[nw1]

I wonder if the West Midlands is the anomaly because of the Mayor of West Midlands Andy Street who despite being a Conservative managed to increase his vote share in the last Mayoral election and is generally quite popular.

It does seem to be the urban West Midlands, rather than the more rural areas, which is not swinging away from the Tories (as well as the East). Walsall Tory but Tamworth NOC definitely seems like a curious anomaly. (Or perhaps in the latter, it's the Pincher effect?)

 

[MikeWM]

John Curtice (who generally knows his stuff) is saying that the vote share shown yesterday, extrapolated over the country, would make Labour the biggest party at the next General Election - but about 20 seats short of a majority. Which doesn't seem much of an endorsement for Starmer's leadership, given how much the Tories are detested by just about everyone at this point, including most of their own supporters.

Labour vote share appears to be about 8-10% ahead of the Tories. The last two times we were 18-24 months out from a change in government, the gap was much much larger - in 1995 the Labour lead was 22%, and in 2008 the Tories were 20% ahead of Labour.

Also worth remembering that the Tories beat Labour by 12% in the 2005 local elections, despite Labour winning the general election held on the same day!

So these elections are indicative of something, but the next general election is still totally up for grabs.

 

[nw1]

John Curtice (who generally knows his stuff) is saying that the vote share shown yesterday, extrapolated over the country, would make Labour the biggest party at the next General Election - but about 20 seats short of a majority. Which doesn't seem much of an endorsement for Starmer's leadership, given how much the Tories are detested by just about everyone at this point, including most of their own supporters.

Labour vote share appears to be about 8-10% ahead of the Tories. The last two times we were 18-24 months out from a change in government, the gap was much much larger - in 1995 the Labour lead was 22%, and in 2008 the Tories were 20% ahead of Labour.

Also worth remembering that the Tories beat Labour by 12% in the 2005 local elections, despite Labour winning the general election held on the same day!

So these elections are indicative of something, but the next general election is still totally up for grabs.

Remember that many of the most Labour areas of the country, such as London or South Wales, did not vote this time. So the area which had votes yesterday is inherently more Tory and less Labour than the UK as a whole, so the Labour lead will be less.

 

[yorksrob]

I see that there has been a decent showing for the Greens this time around.

I wonder if this debunks the myth that the electorate aren't interested in issues such as public transport.

 

[Thirteen]

I have to assume that if you have a Tory Council that is well run, you're not going to vote them out because that is cutting your nose to spite your face.

 

[gg1]

I wonder if the West Midlands is the anomaly because of the Mayor of West Midlands Andy Street who despite being a Conservative managed to increase his vote share in the last Mayoral election and is generally quite popular.

Possibly.

It's notable that in Dudley the turnout in every single one of the 24 wards is down compared to last year (Dudley council has multi-councillor wards elected in separate years), maybe an effect of the voter ID requirement. Don't know about the other local councils, Dudley is the only one who's website makes it easy to make the comparison.
https://online.dudley.gov.uk/elections/local2023.asp

 

[Thirteen]

I see that there has been a decent showing for the Greens this time around.

I wonder if this debunks the myth that the electorate aren't interested in issues such as public transport.

It's never been true generally. I know with London Mayoral elections, transport and TfL always come up as a priority to the candidates.

 

[DarloRich]

An incredible result is Milton Keynes: Olney had elected it's first Labour councillor. Ever.

Olney is a lovely upper middle class town. It is solid shire Tory. They weigh the vote there.

Labour.

It is over lads. Best get those GB News gigs signed up asap

 

[MikeWM]

Remember that many of the most Labour areas of the country, such as London or South Wales, did not vote this time. So the area which had votes yesterday is inherently more Tory and less Labour than the UK as a whole, so the Labour lead will be less.

True, and the figures I gave for 1995 and 2008 may well have such biases in them (plus what councils vote when moves around over time, so very hard to make direct comparisons).

However, Curtice's figures are (I believe) a projection from the areas that did vote, to the whole country.

This appears to be a better result for Labour than last year, which I cautioned against at the time was siginificantly less good than it appeared. But I'm not at all convinced this is a trajectory that takes Starmer to number 10 - polls are very likely to tighten the closer we get to the election.

--

I have to assume that if you have a Tory Council that is well run, you're not going to vote them out because that is cutting your nose to spite your face.

One would hope so. That appears to have been the case here in East Cambs, for example.

 

[yorksrob]

It's never been true generally. I know with London Mayoral elections, transport and TfL always come up as a priority to the candidates.

I would hope so, but it doesn't seem to feature that highly in the minds of the national parties.

 

[nw1]

.Labour vote share appears to be about 8-10% ahead of the Tories. The last two times we were 18-24 months out from a change in government, the gap was much much larger - in 1995 the Labour lead was 22%, and in 2008 the Tories were 20% ahead of Labour.

Even if the next election is delayed until October, it won't be in the 18-24 month bracket.