another Study to consider Borders Railway extension

[snowball]

Does anyone have an idea where the £10m figure came from, or is it going to have to be a written question to an MSP to explain? It feels like a lot of money.

Some stuff from an FOI 4 years ago here. It appears the UK and Scottish governments agreed then to conduct the study.

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/foi-eir-release/2019/09/foi-19-01980/documents/foi-19-01980---correspondence/foi-19-01980---correspondence/govscot%3Adocument/FOI-19-01980%2B-%2BCorrespondence.pdf

There are also news stories from the same period, such as this:

Funding secured for Borders Railway extension study

FUNDING has been allocated for a feasibility study into the extension of the Edinburgh - Tweedbank Borders Railway to Hawick and Carlisle.

www.railjournal.com

 

[Wynd]

Many thanks, snowball.

That clarifies things, "....up to £5m...."

Still, it would be quite a thing if the whole £10m was spent on studies! Questions would be asked.

 

[snowball]

That clarifies things, "....up to £5m...."

Still, it would be quite a thing if the whole £10m was spent on studies! Questions would be asked.

But I think that's up to £5M from each government, so up to £10M total.

 

[MadMac]

These “studies” will generally yield answers you already knew to questions you didn’t actually ask in the first place…..

 

[John R]

Yes - because the area isn't a 'tourist hot spot' even now.

For somewhere to be a tourist destination there need to be things people want to visit - pre Covid Melrose Abbey was attracting about 60,000 visitors a year - about 1000 a week. That's a very low number - and that's for one of the area's "top" visitor attractions.

Outside London, Birmingham and Manchester, nowhere do a majority or even sizeable minority of visitors arrive in an area by train or bus.

You've clearly not been to St Ives in the summer then.

And ok, I had clearly misjudged the level of tourism in the area, as I thought that area was popular. But of course, there is the argument that if you make somewhere accessible by rail then it will drive an increase in tourism by people who don't have the option of a car (including tourists to Edinburgh, of whom there are I believe a few over the course of a year.)

 

[D6130]

Cant help but feel 10 milli would go some way towards rebuilding to Hawick.

Can't help but wonder how the money that was squandered on the huge white elephant/local MP's vanity project that is Reston International could have been put to better use on other transport projects in the Borders - either bus or rail - but preferably the latter.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

So in the end if it happens it will be a purely political and not financial decision.

 

[dcsprior]

Can't help but wonder how the money that was squandered on the huge white elephant/local MP's vanity project that is Reston International could have been put to better use on other transport projects in the Borders - either bus or rail - but preferably the latter.

But isn't adding a couple of platforms where there's already a line (Reston, East Linton, Edinburgh Gateway, Inverness Airport) significantly cheaper than reopening a mothballed line (Alloa) and hugely cheaper building a new stretch of line (Borders, Levenmouth)?

 

[zwk500]

But isn't adding a couple of platforms where there's already a line (Reston, East Linton, Edinburgh Gateway, Inverness Airport) significantly cheaper than reopening a mothballed line (Alloa) and hugely cheaper building a new stretch of line (Borders, Levenmouth)?

In theory, but of course cost is only half the equation. Reston serves a, ahem, limited population catchment. For the price of Reston station you could have built a hell of a lot of nice bus stops.

 

[dcsprior]

In theory, but of course cost is only half the equation. Reston serves a, ahem, limited population catchment. For the price of Reston station you could have built a hell of a lot of nice bus stops.

Fair enough.

I wonder if the fact that the Borders Railway and Alloa both significantly exceeded the expected number of passengers has meant people being over-optimistic about other Scottish (re-)openings.

Or is it a "build it and they will come" kind of thing? The idea that by building a station, they'll make the area more attractive to housebuilders? If it's part of a plan to have significant housing growth in a ~5 mile radius of Reston over the next 20 years, I could see that as quite sensible (I say that as someone who lives near Shawfair - it was in the middle of nowhere when it opened, that's less and less the case with every house that goes up!)

 

[zwk500]

Fair enough.

I wonder if the fact that the Borders Railway and Alloa both significantly exceeded the expected number of passengers has meant people being over-optimistic about other Scottish (re-)openings.

Or is it a "build it and they will come" kind of thing? The idea that by building a station, they'll make the area more attractive to housebuilders? If it's part of a plan to have significant housing growth in a ~5 mile radius of Reston over the next 20 years, I could see that as quite sensible (I say that as someone who lives near Shawfair - it was in the middle of nowhere when it opened, that's less and less the case with every house that goes up!)

I suspect both have been a significant factor.

 

[A0]

You've clearly not been to St Ives in the summer then.

And ok, I had clearly misjudged the level of tourism in the area, as I thought that area was popular. But of course, there is the argument that if you make somewhere accessible by rail then it will drive an increase in tourism by people who don't have the option of a car (including tourists to Edinburgh, of whom there are I believe a few over the course of a year.)

In the height of summer no - but the height of summer isn't the 52 weeks a year which people visit St Ives.

But no mainline rail reopening has, or will, justify itself on the basis of tourism - because tourism is highly seasonal, so for 10 weeks a year it will be full and overflowing and 42 weeks a year, carting fresh air around.

The only things which can underpin a national rail reopening are either housing or jobs - and since there aren't the latter in the borders, then it will be the former with the railway line providing the link to Edinburgh. But the locals won't want 10k houses which will justify the railway line's extension. In the same way the eastern section of EWR from Bedford can only be justified if it serves places like Cambourne (which is getting about 10k houses built).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Apr 2023 ==

Fair enough.

I wonder if the fact that the Borders Railway and Alloa both significantly exceeded the expected number of passengers has meant people being over-optimistic about other Scottish (re-)openings.

Or is it a "build it and they will come" kind of thing? The idea that by building a station, they'll make the area more attractive to housebuilders? If it's part of a plan to have significant housing growth in a ~5 mile radius of Reston over the next 20 years, I could see that as quite sensible (I say that as someone who lives near Shawfair - it was in the middle of nowhere when it opened, that's less and less the case with every house that goes up!)

Bit in bold - I'm pretty sure @Bald Rick explained on one thread that Borders Rail *hadn't* exceeded the expectations at all ? Can't find the post at the moment.

 

[dcsprior]

But no mainline rail reopening has, or will, justify itself on the basis of tourism - because tourism is highly seasonal, so for 10 weeks a year it will be full and overflowing and 42 weeks a year, carting fresh air around.

Being pedantic, airport stations?

But the only ones I can find that could be called mainline re-openings are Inverness Airport and Southpamton Airport Parkway.

 

[A0]

Being pedantic, airport stations?

But the only ones I can find that could be called mainline re-openings are Inverness Airport and Southpamton Airport Parkway.

Neither were line (re) openings - instead they were simply new stations on existing lines, same as Luton Aiport Parkway, East Midlands Parkway.

The only airports (I can think of) which have justified new heavy rail lines were Stanstead and Manchester - though in both cases the prime reason was a direct link to the nearest main city (Stanstead was marketed as "London's 3rd airport").

And air travellers aren't just tourists - business travellers, people who work at the airports etc are all part of the equation.

 

[zwk500]

Neither were line (re) openings - instead they were simply new stations on existing lines, same as Luton Aiport Parkway, East Midlands Parkway.

The only airports (I can think of) which have justified new heavy rail lines were Stanstead and Manchester - though in both cases the prime reason was a direct link to the nearest main city (Stanstead was marketed as "London's 3rd airport").

And air travellers aren't just tourists - business travellers, people who work at the airports etc are all part of the equation.

Also Airports aren't destinations - they're multi-modal nodes. That concentrates traffic significantly.

 

[Bald Rick]

In theory, but of course cost is only half the equation. Reston serves a, ahem, limited population catchment. For the price of Reston station you could have built a hell of a lot of nice bus stops.

For the price of Reston you could have bought a fleet of executive coaches sufficient to run an hourly express service from Carlisle - Hawick - Selkirk - Gala - Melrose - Kelso - Coldstream - Berwick, and run it for a trial period of 5 years, and made it free for all passengers, and still have handed back £5m to the Scottish taxpayer.

I wonder if the fact that the Borders Railway and Alloa both significantly exceeded the expected number of passengers has meant people being over-optimistic about other Scottish (re-)openings.

They didn’t. They did in the first couple of years, because the assumptions for traffic build up were incorrect (as they are for most new railways and stations) but in the medium term they are much closer to the forecasts (Even allowing for Covid).

The rather difficult fact of the matter is that the Borders line was a political reopening, and wouldn’t get built now if it was proposed (The MSP responsible for championing the line freely told me this just after it opened). The rest of the old line has no chance, and rightly so. It would be a criminal waste of taxpayers money.

The only things which can underpin a national rail reopening are either housing or jobs - and since there aren't the latter in the borders, then it will be the former with the railway line providing the link to Edinburgh. But the locals won't want 10k houses which will justify the railway line's extension. In the same way the eastern section of EWR from Bedford can only be justified if it serves places like Cambourne (which is getting about 10k houses built).

EWR was originally predicated on well over 100k houses along the corridor. Many of those are already built - see the new states all around Aylesbury, Bicester, etc.

Stanstead was marketed as "London's 3rd airport").

Hence the engineers line reference (ELR) code for the Stansted Branch is ‘TLA’

 

[The Planner]

So in the end if it happens it will be a purely political and not financial decision.

We have a winner!

 

[John R]

In the height of summer no - but the height of summer isn't the 52 weeks a year which people visit St Ives.

St Ives has a population of 5,000 and around 750,000 entries and exits each year, so I'd suggest that the branch attracts significant volumes of business across a goodly part of the year. Still, I agree that's a special case, and somewhat OT.

 

[MisterSheeps]

The rest of the old line has no chance

there is the access to Kielder Forest, not in itself worth rebuilding, but would provide originating freight, routing either via Langholm, or Riccarton

 

[Bald Rick]

there is the access to Kielder Forest, not in itself worth rebuilding, but would provide originating freight, routing either via Langholm, or Riccarton

irrelevant, I’m afraid.

 

[Starmill]

Fair enough.

I wonder if the fact that the Borders Railway and Alloa both significantly exceeded the expected number of passengers has meant people being over-optimistic about other Scottish (re-)openings.

Or is it a "build it and they will come" kind of thing? The idea that by building a station, they'll make the area more attractive to housebuilders? If it's part of a plan to have significant housing growth in a ~5 mile radius of Reston over the next 20 years, I could see that as quite sensible (I say that as someone who lives near Shawfair - it was in the middle of nowhere when it opened, that's less and less the case with every house that goes up!)

Even if the developers were absolutely clamouring after Reston (and they're not) there's next to no chance of large-scale development near there. It would never get permission.

 

[A0]

Even if the developers were absolutely clamouring after Reston (and they're not) there's next to no chance of large-scale development near there. It would never get permission.

Why?

It's not in a national park, it's not in an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty or Site of Special Scientific Interest.

It's farmland - no different to Cambourne some 300 miles south.

 

[Starmill]

Why?

It's not in a national park, it's not in an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty or Site of Special Scientific Interest.

It's farmland - no different to Cambourne some 300 miles south.

Because the locals are so adept at playing the planning system to their advantage.

 

[D6130]

It's farmland - no different to Cambourne some 300 miles south.

It's very valuable and productive farmland, growing huge quantities of barley - largely for the whisky and brewing industries - and a lesser quantity of potatoes.

 

[zwk500]

Why?

It's not in a national park, it's not in an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty or Site of Special Scientific Interest.

It's farmland - no different to Cambourne some 300 miles south.

1. Cambourne is near Cambridge and London, so demand for housing is very high (not that Edinburgh isn't under similar pressures though.
2. Isn't Cambourne largely around an old airfield?

 

[A0]

1. Cambourne is near Cambridge and London, so demand for housing is very high (not that Edinburgh isn't under similar pressures though.
2. Isn't Cambourne largely around an old airfield?

On 2 - yes, but that's not the only site around there being developed. It's a relatively small airfield in the scheme of things

 

[dcsprior]

Neither were line (re) openings - instead they were simply new stations on existing lines, same as Luton Aiport Parkway, East Midlands Parkway.

The post I replied to didn't say "line reopenings".

Both those examples were stations being reopened.

 

[zwk500]

The post I replied to didn't say "line reopenings".

Both those examples were stations being reopened.

On a pedantic note, Inverness and Southampton Airport stations were simply openings, weren't they, rather than reopenings?

 

[daodao]

On a pedantic note, Inverness and Southampton Airport stations were simply openings, weren't they, rather than reopenings?

Inverness Airport railway station (opened earlier in 2023) is close to the site of the former Dalcross railway station (closed 1965), so is really a re-opening.

 

[mrgreen]

Hence the engineers line reference (ELR) code for the Stansted Branch is ‘TLA’

Making it a classic TLA (Three-Letter Acronym)