another Study to consider Borders Railway extension

[wilbers]

following on from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/study-to-consider-borders-railway-extension.145163/page-26 that has been closed to future posts, I've just read on my local news that there is to be another £10M feasibility study https://www.itv.com/news/border/202...oss-border-railway-to-get-underway-imminently

What is this study likely to be able to find that the previous one didn't? and is the net result ever going to be any different to £10million spent/allocated on making a report, and £0 spent on railway infrastructure? or is it more that its looking at Hawick, and the rest of that article is spin?

 

[The Planner]

£10 million? Wow, presumably jewel encrusted pages.

 

[waverley47]

£10 million? Wow, presumably jewel encrusted pages.

following on from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/study-to-consider-borders-railway-extension.145163/page-26 that has been closed to future posts, I've just read on my local news that there is to be another £10M feasibility study https://www.itv.com/news/border/202...oss-border-railway-to-get-underway-imminently

What is this study likely to be able to find that the previous one didn't? and is the net result ever going to be any different to £10million spent/allocated on making a report, and £0 spent on railway infrastructure? or is it more that its looking at Hawick, and the rest of that article is spin?

The report will find that:

Kelso has a BCR of about 0.5
Hawick has a BCR of about 0.4
Jedburgh has a BCR of about 0.2

That's what we found in our study into the original borders line twenty years ago, and I very much doubt anything will change.

It's interesting that kelso has a higher BCR than Hawick, but that's because you start to pull in people from Northumberland and the Hawse, whereas Hawick is in the middle of nowhere.

 

[MattRat]

It's probably looking at a different route. Plenty of variables given the distance. Although I do wonder the point of the extension. Who exactly does it serve? Since Carlisle and Edinburgh already have a connection, and everything in between isn't that big.

 

[snowball]

On seeing this I at first wondered if it was a decision of the new First Minister - but on following the link I see to my astonishment that it's a UK govt decision.

If Johnson had still been PM I could have believed it, but now, in today's circumstances, it seems crazier than crazy.

 

[HSTEd]

It will provide positive headlines about reopening charming rural railways (that were and always will be huge money pits).

£10m for a positive headline or two is positively cheap these days.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2023 ==

It's interesting that kelso has a higher BCR than Hawick, but that's because you start to pull in people from Northumberland and the Hawse, whereas Hawick is in the middle of nowhere.

It's almost as if railway lines should go near where people live rather than trace random lines on a map between points through the closest thing to wilderness south of the Scottish Highlands, isn't it?

 

[snowball]

Hasn't the Scottish govt had its own review into the case for an extension at some time since the opening to Tweedbank in 2015?

 

[alf]

It will provide positive headlines about reopening charming rural railways (that were and always will be huge money pits).

£10m for a positive headline or two is positively cheap these days.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Mar 2023 ==

Especially when you are spending other people’s money.

 

[railjock]

Not convinced it will tell us anything new.

 

[pdeaves]

Not convinced it will tell us anything new.

That's the thing. Study X gave the 'wrong' answer so we did Study Y, but that was also 'wrong' so here's Study Z.

 

[LickeyIncliner]

On seeing this I at first wondered if it was a decision of the new First Minister - but on following the link I see to my astonishment that it's a UK govt decision.

If Johnson had still been PM I could have believed it, but now, in today's circumstances, it seems crazier than crazy.

It seems to be the same £10M study that was announced as part of the "Borderlands Inclusive Growth Deal" in early July 2019 - i.e. just before Johnson became PM. The scale of the budget suggests to me that some fairly serious survey work is intended e.g. on the condition of surviving structures or on ground conditions

 

[Bartsimho]

I could see maybe some better demand if it went Kelso, Coldstream, Berwick but that probably isn't desirable (It might allow for a better service with it being a through line though). Maybe even Kelso, Coldstream, Wooler, Alnwick.

 

[lachlan]

is the possibility of extending just to Melrose or possibly St Boswells to be investigated? Feels like a more achievable way to bring more people within walking distance of a station and increase usage of the line

 

[snowball]

It seems to be the same £10M study that was announced as part of the "Borderlands Inclusive Growth Deal" in early July 2019 - i.e. just before Johnson became PM. The scale of the budget suggests to me that some fairly serious survey work is intended e.g. on the condition of surviving structures or on ground conditions

Thanks. The BIGD is a joint project of the UK and Scottish governments and the £10M for the rail study seems to be half from each government. The earliest reference I've found to it is a full four years old - 1 April 2019!

 

[A0]

is the possibility of extending just to Melrose or possibly St Boswells to be investigated? Feels like a more achievable way to bring more people within walking distance of a station and increase usage of the line

Melrose is 2,500 people - it really isn't worth it - 2 miles of new railway will easily cost £80m, it would be easier and cheaper to offer a free taxi service for the residents of Melrose to Tweedbank station.

Newtown St Boswells is 1,500 people - it's even less worthwhile.

Hawick's the only worthwhile extension - and even that's pretty dubious from a benefit perspective. That said if there was the possibility of doubling the size of both Melrose and Newtown St Boswell's as well as increasing the size of Hawick by 50% it might start to make sense, however I somehow think the local communities won't be very happy that the price of a new railway is lots and lots of new houses.

And short extensions like those you suggest would massively increase running costs - currently the turnaround at Tweedback is about 8 mins. So if you extended the railway to Newtown you'd definitely screw that up and result in additional costs of more units etc. Even Melrose would be touch and go.

 

[Kingston Dan]

Melrose is 2,500 people - it really isn't worth it - 2 miles of new railway will easily cost £80m, it would be easier and cheaper to offer a free taxi service for the residents of Melrose to Tweedbank station.

Newtown St Boswells is 1,500 people - it's even less worthwhile.

Hawick's the only worthwhile extension - and even that's pretty dubious from a benefit perspective. That said if there was the possibility of doubling the size of both Melrose and Newtown St Boswell's as well as increasing the size of Hawick by 50% it might start to make sense, however I somehow think the local communities won't be very happy that the price of a new railway is lots and lots of new houses.

And short extensions like those you suggest would massively increase running costs - currently the turnaround at Tweedback is about 8 mins. So if you extended the railway to Newtown you'd definitely screw that up and result in additional costs of more units etc. Even Melrose would be touch and go.

Of course two of the biggest employers in the Borders are in Melrose and Newtown - Borders General Hospital and Borders Council. Hawick is c14,000 people. The problem this latest study has it is part of the ridiculous union connectivity agenda so will no doubt looking at getting through 40 miles of nothing to Carlisle (for the sake of the precious union).

The union connectivity stuff needs binning and the focus should be on intra border connectivity - a link to the ECML at Berwick via Kelso and Coldstream would make more sense than getting to Carlisle.

 

[snowball]

The problem this latest study has it is part of the ridiculous union connectivity agenda so will no doubt looking at getting through 40 miles of nothing to Carlisle (for the sake of the precious union).

It's true that it involves both governments but it's not technically linked to the Union Connectivity Review. The final report of the UCR mentions the Borders Railway only in a footnote where it welcomes the separate decision to hold this review. The UCR was Johnson's idea when he was prime minister, but this review seems to date from when May was still in the job.

The Scottish government was pissed off by Johnson's colonial attitude and didn't cooperate with the UCR, but this review originates in a separate and cooperative exercise.

However it may well still be too focussed on trying to go to Carlisle. Time will tell.

 

[Fleetmaster]

Would it benefit Dumfries?

 

[waverley47]

Would it benefit Dumfries?

If it was happening, then no.

But it's not going to happen until perhaps* post 2035.

*Post 2035 it's still not going to happen, but by that point there may be money to extend a couple of miles to Newtown, or, at a push, Kelso.

 

[Arkeeos]

every single pound spent on these rural branch lines extension that net +2 ridership yearly, is a pound that could be put into urban lines and urban infrastructure with a far greater benefit.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

every single pound spent on these rural branch lines extension that net +2 ridership yearly, is a pound that could be put into urban lines and urban infrastructure with a far greater benefit.

I like your optimism.

It won't be put into urban lines and urban infrastructure. It will be put into tax cuts for the ultra-rich and the £28bn roads budget.

 

[Wynd]

Cant help but feel 10 milli would go some way towards rebuilding to Hawick... Accepted, not very far given the current cost of rail, but it would all help.

 

[lachlan]

Cant help but feel 10 milli would go some way towards rebuilding to Hawick... Accepted, not very far given the current cost of rail, but it would all help.

Or most of the way to reopening a station. £10m on a study doesn’t feel like an effective use of funds at all

 

[HSTEd]

Or most of the way to reopening a station. £10m on a study doesn’t feel like an effective use of funds at all

It's ten million pounds for buying votes, the line itself has nothing to do with it.

If it wasn't for this they'd find some eye-grabbing study to spend it on.

 

[Wynd]

Or most of the way to reopening a station. £10m on a study doesn’t feel like an effective use of funds at all

I am curious as to how that number was arrived at when Laurencikirk and Peterhead/Fraserburgh studies, those completed and ongoing, are orders of magnitude below the 10m mark.

 

[lachlan]

I am curious as to how that number was arrived at when Laurencikirk and Peterhead/Fraserburgh studies, those completed and ongoing, are orders of magnitude below the 10m mark.

Just memory of Kintore being £14 million, that’s all. Not a carefully considered figure

 

[Wynd]

Just memory of Kintore being £14 million, that’s all. Not a carefully considered figure

£281,124.01 of which was CCTV alone, even more than the cost of design which was £262,331.29.

Anyway, off topic.

Does anyone have an idea where the £10m figure came from, or is it going to have to be a written question to an MSP to explain? It feels like a lot of money.

 

[zwk500]

£10 million? Wow, presumably jewel encrusted pages.

I expect it reflects the amount of rock's they're going to have to turn over to find enough pennies of benefit to get to the answer the politicians seem to have decided upon already.

 

[John R]

Melrose is 2,500 people - it really isn't worth it - 2 miles of new railway will easily cost £80m, it would be easier and cheaper to offer a free taxi service for the residents of Melrose to Tweedbank station.

Newtown St Boswells is 1,500 people - it's even less worthwhile.

Hawick's the only worthwhile extension - and even that's pretty dubious from a benefit perspective. That said if there was the possibility of doubling the size of both Melrose and Newtown St Boswell's as well as increasing the size of Hawick by 50% it might start to make sense, however I somehow think the local communities won't be very happy that the price of a new railway is lots and lots of new houses.

And short extensions like those you suggest would massively increase running costs - currently the turnaround at Tweedback is about 8 mins. So if you extended the railway to Newtown you'd definitely screw that up and result in additional costs of more units etc. Even Melrose would be touch and go.

Are you taking into account the potential to make the area more attractive to tourists to visit from Edinburgh? Even the 1 1/2 mile walk from Tweedbank to Melrose Abbey will put a lot of people off thinking of a day trip. So the number of additional trips is likely to be significantly more than you would expect from a place with such a small population.

As to timings, hopefully electrification and BEMUs would shave enough minutes off the return trip to enable an extension as far as Melrose to be completed within the existing number of diagrams (not sure if it would mess with the required sitings of the double track sections though).

 

[A0]

Are you taking into account the potential to make the area more attractive to tourists to visit from Edinburgh? Even the 1 1/2 mile walk from Tweedbank to Melrose Abbey will put a lot of people off thinking of a day trip. So the number of additional trips is likely to be significantly more than you would expect from a place with such a small population.

As to timings, hopefully electrification and BEMUs would shave enough minutes off the return trip to enable an extension as far as Melrose to be completed within the existing number of diagrams (not sure if it would mess with the required sitings of the double track sections though).

Yes - because the area isn't a 'tourist hot spot' even now.

For somewhere to be a tourist destination there need to be things people want to visit - pre Covid Melrose Abbey was attracting about 60,000 visitors a year - about 1000 a week. That's a very low number - and that's for one of the area's "top" visitor attractions.

Outside London, Birmingham and Manchester, nowhere do a majority or even sizeable minority of visitors arrive in an area by train or bus.

The only way this line would be viable for extension is with a *huge* increase in house building to make it a commuter line into Edinburgh - and I suspect the locals don't want that.