GwR potential rolling stock provision once HSTs are stood down

[Brubulus]

Is there any way that 80x sets may cleared beyond Westbury or is there some specific reason they could not deputise for turbos (I know end doors aren't ideal for the route).

 

[JonathanH]

Is there any way that 80x sets may cleared beyond Westbury or is there some specific reason they could not deputise for turbos (I know end doors aren't ideal for the route).

Traincrew knowledge is likely to also be a barrier to them working beyond Westbury.

Supposedly a new order was mooted, but I don't think that's going ahead just yet/at all. I'm sure all the latest info is on this forum somewhere if one dug around.

No, it has been publicly stated by GWR that any new order is a matter for the end of the decade, once decisions have been made about the requirements. HST replacement can be handled within the spare capacity in the 80x fleet.

 

[devon_belle]

No, it has been publicly stated by GWR that any new order is a matter for the end of the decade, once decisions have been made about the requirements. HST replacement can be handled within the spare capacity in the 80x fleet.

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[michael74]

Indeed the idea is 2+4 diagrams replaced with 5 car IETs. No new fleet order for years.

Edit... @JonathanH got there first.....

 

[50031]

Realtimetrains.co.uk suggests 800s on some Worcester-Bristol diagrams, not just HST 2+4 replacements. Half hourly to Yate/Gloucester AND half hourly Bristol-Keynsham-Oldfield Park-Bath-Westbury-Salisbury. Without 769s releasing Turbos for these services, trains needed from somewhere. I wonder if this also means an end to most or all 5 car working of Portsmouth services, to provide extra units for these significant enhancements?

 

[JonathanH]

Realtimetrains.co.uk suggests 800s on some Worcester-Bristol diagrams, not just HST 2+4 replacements. Half hourly to Yate/Gloucester AND half hourly Bristol-Keynsham-Oldfield Park-Bath-Westbury-Salisbury. Without 769s releasing Turbos for these services, trains needed from somewhere. I wonder if this also means an end to most or all 5 car working of Portsmouth services, to provide extra units for these significant enhancements?

It has already been discussed in previous threads. A few more 3-car 158s are to be restored to 2-car units to enable additional trains to run.

The capacity is then spread over more services.

More four car 158s for Cardiff - Portsmouth services

During the GWR Devon and Cornwall Webinar yesterday a slide was shown by GWR indicating that from May there would be more 4 car Class 158 services on the Cardiff-Portsmouth services. No indication however as to where the 158s are coming from. Possibly from the current Tarka line services? Split...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[50031]

It has already been discussed in previous threads. A few more 3-car 158s are to be restored to 2-car units to enable additional trains to run.

The capacity is then spread over more services.

More four car 158s for Cardiff - Portsmouth services

During the GWR Devon and Cornwall Webinar yesterday a slide was shown by GWR indicating that from May there would be more 4 car Class 158 services on the Cardiff-Portsmouth services. No indication however as to where the 158s are coming from. Possibly from the current Tarka line services? Split...

www.railforums.co.uk

Thanks

 

[Snow1964]

No, it has been publicly stated by GWR that any new order is a matter for the end of the decade, once decisions have been made about the requirements. HST replacement can be handled within the spare capacity in the 80x fleet.

Local rumours are that GWR are struggling with leisure growth rebound, and their we can cope for 5-7 years masterplan is under severe strain.

For clarity the crowding problems are apparently in Bristol and Exeter areas, not in Thames Valley.

My own view is they have few secondary route trains (the small 158 fleet). So have to try and cover many services with high speed IETs which are overkill, or ex suburban spec turbos which aren't ideal either. Remains to be seen if shortening some Cardiff-Portsmouth trains to 4cars will work, or if just means more reduced to 2cars in practice.

 

[JonathanH]

Local rumours are that GWR are struggling with leisure growth rebound, and their we can cope for 5-7 years masterplan is under severe strain.

The answer will be price gouging. If the market is doing well, then it will take higher fares, unfortunate as that may be.

(For the avoidance of doubt this is not what I want to see, and many fares in the area aren't that good value now, but it is a way that will either bring in more revenue, or suppress the overcrowding.)

 

[Snow1964]

The answer will be price gouging. If the market is doing well, then it will take higher fares, unfortunate as that may be.

(For the avoidance of doubt this is not what I want to see, and many fares in the area aren't that good value now, but it is a way that will either bring in more revenue, or suppress the overcrowding.)

As most local fares are standard or day returns, not advances, can they actually do that, I didn't think you could price people off with raising regulated fares that people seem to be using for their days out. Happy to be corrected though.

The recently introduced smart card in Bristol area might actually be increasing usage

GWR launches new pay-as-you-go smartcard for wider Bristol area | GWR News

Local train operator Great Western Railway has launched a new pay-as-you-go smartcard to roll payments and tickets into one, ensuring customers get the best value on the day of travel. Register now.

news.gwr.com

 

[JonathanH]

As most local fares are standard or day returns, not advances, can they actually do that, I didn't think you could price people off with raising regulated fares that people seem to be using for their days out. Happy to be corrected though.

The recently introduced smart card in Bristol area might actually be increasing usage

GWR launches new pay-as-you-go smartcard for wider Bristol area | GWR News

Local train operator Great Western Railway has launched a new pay-as-you-go smartcard to roll payments and tickets into one, ensuring customers get the best value on the day of travel. Register now.

news.gwr.com

I think you are probably right that there isn't a lot which can be done, since the regulated fares are either off-peak returns over longer distances, or anytime day returns over shorter distances, and there isn't a lot of difference between the off-peak and anytime fares in the region. Clearly, the government could change the basis of regulation as part of the GBR implementation.

If the fares between Trowbridge and Bath are £9.80 for an anytime day return and £9.30 for an off-peak day return, removing the off-peak fare doesn't make a whole lot of difference. £10 for return journey of less than ten miles each way is already pretty steep.

As you say, smart card pay as you go makes travel more convenient.

 

[Annetts key]

And they are pushing their smart card via automated announcements on many of their trains.

The other thing to think about, is that many of their passengers don’t drive (school children, both young adults and older people who don’t have a car, and around Bristol and Bath, people who choose not to use their car due to the congestion (which is bad) or the clean air zones.

So if prices do go up, it may not actually significantly reduce demand.

 

[Trainbike46]

Are there any 158s being released by other operators that GWR could take to fill the gap?

Maybe TfW or EMR would release some?

 

[Anonymous10]

Are there any 158s being released by other operators that GWR could take to fill the gap?

Maybe TfW or EMR would release some?

Tfw have extended their lease till end of 2024 till 197s are fully operational so once 197s are in South Wales could likely only spare a few and emr are keeping Norwich to Liverpool so will need their fleet

 

[Trainbike46]

so nothing in the short term then, unfortunately

 

[Anonymous10]

so nothing in the short term then, unfortunately

Unfortunately not only stock going spare in short term will likely be the 175 fleet which would require a complete new training regime

 

[Snow1964]

If the fares between Trowbridge and Bath are £9.80 for an anytime day return and £9.30 for an off-peak day return, removing the off-peak fare doesn't make a whole lot of difference. £10 for return journey of less than ten miles each way is already pretty steep.

As you say, smart card pay as you go makes travel more convenient.

The Bristol area smart card doesn't reach Wiltshire (except Chippenham which was strangely included). Its launch coincided with the clean air zone (which no doubt affected those with older cars), and hefty bus cuts in the Bristol and Bath area.

The Bristol-Westbury corridor gets enhanced service in few weeks, however the uneven time spacing in Trowbridge area (and nearby stations) might cause some very uneven loadings. (has been arranged so if don't get busy Portsmouth train, arrival on next train will be upto 32 minutes later, as new service in Trowbridge area is not spaced about every 20 minutes)

My concern is if GWR have miscalculated how their unevenly spaced timetable will affect passengers preferences then going to have to strengthen the Portsmouth trains again having disbanded a number of 3car 158s. And I have no idea where stock would come from.

 

[Benjwri]

however the uneven time spacing in Trowbridge area (and nearby stations) might cause some very uneven loadings. (has been arranged so if don't get busy Portsmouth train, arrival on next train will be upto 32 minutes later, as new service in Trowbridge area is not spaced about every 20 minutes)

My concern is if GWR have miscalculated how their unevenly spaced timetable will affect passengers preferences then going to have to strengthen the Portsmouth trains again having disbanded a number of 3car 158s. And I have no idea where stock would come from.

The uneven spacing is because it's all that the pathing would allow for. It unfortunately isn't really possible to change it without retiming the Cardiff to Portsmouth services, which just isn't feasible because of the number of regions it has to fit into, or retiming the London to Bristol services, which again isn't possible because they'd have to replace something else into London, likely the Cardiff/Swansea trains, and then how do they fit in? To time them evenly might not even be possible to be honest, without making another route uneven, but would definitely require a quite large rewrite of a lot of timetables.

No idea how they're going to cope though, 80 services short formed today, on a Sunday service.

 

[michael74]

The internal GWR colleague call this week is with the engineering director, it may (or may not) be enlightening. I am sure this will be discussed as well as the Turbo refurbishment and the creaking 150s.....

 

[Snow1964]

DfT has just published (5th June) the GWR business plan commitments, and train plan, although document is few months old has indicated the dates

(page 26) 2.1 The Operator shall develop and submit to the Secretary of State by no later than 9 December 2022 an outline proposal (the “Future Fleet and Depot Proposal”) which as a minimum: (a) sets out the Operator’s proposals for the future implementation of an integrated rolling stock, depot and stabling, operating and supporting infrastructure strategy in connection with the Operator’s provision of the Rail Services, including proposals for the optimal future provision of the ‘Night Riviera’ Sleeper Services;

seems that commenced procurement new trains within next 3.5 months

(iv) contract award, it being acknowledged that such procurement strategy and plan shall be required to be prepared on the basis of an assumption that the Operator will be required to commence procurement in accordance with such procurement strategy and plan by no later than 23 September 2023;

and seems pretty clear that GWR future fleet plan must be implemented within 3.5 months

2.5 The Secretary of State may, in accordance with paragraph 3 (Annual Business Plan Process) or paragraph 6 (Business Plan Revisions) of Chapter 7.7 (Business Plan) of the Contract (as the case may be), direct the Operator to implement the Future Fleet Proposal as a specified future business plan commitment, it being acknowledged that (subject to such a direction being given) the Secretary of State intends that a future business plan commitment will apply to oblige the Operator to commence procurement in accordance with the Operator’s procurement strategy and plan (as comprised in the Future Fleet Proposal, and subject to such changes as the Secretary of State may specify), by no later than 30 September 2023.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1160393/first-greater-western-limited-2022-business-plan-commitments.pdf