TPE may keep 185s and send the Mk 5s to TfW

[D365]

I suspect that if the units go anywhere, that they may go to to Northern or West Midland Trains.

What units are you talking about?

If Scotrail do not want DMU's, then I suspect that they may take on the MK4's from LNER, in the same way that TFW have done.

Yet another suspicion

And what would haul these Mk4s?

 

[Wolfie]

It makes even more (financial) sense for them to go off lease with no one using them.

Absolutely, particularly given that they seem to be unreliable junk.

 

[CAF397]

... how likely are TPE to be able to wriggle out due to reliability or suchlike ?.

Depends on the contract.

If the Mark 5As are as unreliable as has been mentioned, there will surely be a break in the contract.

If that was your car you bought from the garage, and it's never worked properly from Day 1, has been in for modifications numerous times and has cost you many £££s you'd have consumer protection to end the deal. If TPE have similar with their leasing company, they could invoke it. Make it the leasing companys' problem with CAF.

 

[Neptune]

So many people seem to be taking this thread as fact yet it’s in the speculative section and the source is a mate on Facebook.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

It is only a rumour. The Mark 4s also work to Holyhead.

If they get the full fleet of Novas there is absolutely no reason to keep them just to work Holyheads. They’d either share the Novas between the two routes or use the spare 197s to bulk up all Holyheads to 5-197 rather than 3-197/4-5-MK4.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Mar 2023 ==

Nope, the plan there appears to be a withdrawl of LHCS full stop due to pollution controls wanted by Westminster Council.

Personally I don't see this as viable so soon after the introduction of the Mk.4s and as a Welsh taxpayer would be rather furious if the Mk.4s were withdrawn so quickly, wasting however much

Personally I don’t see why the Welsh taxpayer should be anymore furious than the English one that’s seen the 442 farce, GWR 769 wastage, and I doubt the MK4s had as much change as the XC MK3s did only a year or two beforehand, which will be axed in September.

 

[RobShipway]

What units are you talking about?

Yet another suspicion

And what would haul these Mk4s?

I will stand corrected, but I don't believe that all class 67's are in use. DB Cargo have at least 7 class 67's in store.

So many people seem to be taking this thread as fact yet it’s in the speculative section and the source is a mate on Facebook.

I am not sure that they are taking as fact, I think as this forum section is to do with speculation that they are doing just that and speculating. Time will tell, if TPE is really thinking about having the Mark 5a coaches move on to new areas.

No indeed. They would fit even less well there.

Why wouldn't they want multiple units? Either way they'll be something new, and certainly not mark 4s.

There's nothing to replace any of the fleets mentioned above. The operators concerned will simply run fewer or shorter services to compensate. TfW are, of course, an exception.

I read somewhere and yes it could have been within the speculative forum here, that when Scotrail come to replace the Inter7City fleet, that they would prefer diesel/electric hauled trains, rather than multiple units which is felt as more of a commuter train, than an inter-city train.

My bold. Polmadie, in Scotland, maintains the only other locomotive hauled Mk5s in the UK. So that would be a benefit not a problem. As for "sub-fleet" or micro-fleet - if the HSTs all left Scotland that would still be the same number of sub-fleets.

The only other option would be if the carriages from the Nova 3 sets could be inserted into the class 397 units or be added to the Caledonian sleeper fleet. Then use the Nova 3 driving cars as spare part vehicles.

I am not sure why, but I cannot see them going to Scotrail even if they can be maintained at Polmadie. One of the reasons for this, is if the MK5a fleet cannot cope with the hills of the Pennines, then I cannot see them coping with the hills of Scotland.

 

[skyhigh]

I am not sure why, but I cannot see them going to Scotrail even if they can be maintained at Polmadie. One of the reasons for this, is if the MK5a fleet cannot cope with the hills of the Pennines, then I cannot see them coping with the hills of Scotland.

Somehow I don't think the issue with Mk5s is hills......

 

[Peter Sarf]

Somehow I don't think the issue with Mk5s is hills......

Indeed, I suspect the 68s have plenty of grunt for the hills etc !.

But makes me wonder - I assume the problem is the Mk5s and not the 68s (apart from noise). Is that correct ?.

 

[D365]

I will stand corrected, but I don't believe that all class 67's are in use. DB Cargo have at least 7 class 67's in store.

The only other option would be if the carriages from the Nova 3 sets could be inserted into the class 397 units or be added to the Caledonian sleeper fleet. Then use the Nova 3 driving cars as spare part vehicles.

Speculative or otherwise - I’m not sure what problems you are trying to solve here.

 

[43096]

"About the contract you signed for the Mk4s."
"What about it?"
"If you want to end the contract early please remember the penalty clause. It's going to cost you a lot to dump them now."
"Oh!"
I'm assuming the Mk4s are not on some crazy deal where TfW can simply walk away and hand them back whenever they like.

This story does come across as a solution looking for a problem. The Mk5s will have to be very cheap and very much more reliable for anyone to take them on.

The Mark 4s are owned by TfW, so no leasing contract.

 

[Energy]

Ah yes, those magical 93s that for some reason people have got into their heads that they'd be fine off wires on passenger trains.

They aren't too bad though the route would need to be pretty flat... and slow.

"About the contract you signed for the Mk4s."
"What about it?"
"If you want to end the contract early please remember the penalty clause. It's going to cost you a lot to dump them now."
"Oh!"
I'm assuming the Mk4s are not on some crazy deal where TfW can simply walk away and hand them back whenever they like.

This story does come across as a solution looking for a problem. The Mk5s will have to be very cheap and very much more reliable for anyone to take them on.

The Mk4s were bought by TfW at scrap value, they can sell them for scrap value with the money lost being AAR fitment.

I am not sure why, but I cannot see them going to Scotrail. I suspect that they would go to a train Operator already using CAF trains, as they would be commonality then in parts. Also, you would also have to get Scotrail engineers trained up on a sub fleet, which I cannot see happening.

I suspect that if the units go anywhere, that they may go to to Northern or West Midland Trains. I suspect that West Midland Trains is possibly more likely in replacing five class 172 trains made up of 2 car class 172, plus three car 172 units. These class 172 units could then potentially go to EMR.

Please don't send the mk5s to WMR, they would not fit well.

If Scotrail do not want DMU's, then I suspect that they may take on the MK4's from LNER, in the same way that TFW have done.

Scotrail have been stung once by the HST project.

The only other option would be if the carriages from the Nova 3 sets could be inserted into the class 397

Very unlikely.

or be added to the Caledonian sleeper fleet.

Caledonian sleeper loses enough money as it is.

hat when Scotrail come to replace the Inter7City fleet, that they would prefer diesel/electric hauled trains, rather than multiple units which is felt as more of a commuter train, than an inter-city train.

Scotrail pre-HST decided it didn't like underfloor engines due to noise and ultimately got HSTs, FirstGroup supposedly bid with refurbishing the 170s. The decarbonisation plan is mostly BEMUs with a bit of hydrogen for the Far North line etc.

 

[43096]

They aren't too bad though the route would need to be pretty flat... and slow.

Aren’t too bad? Type 3 rating on battery+diesel and Type 2 once the battery goes flat. And that’s before you take off the ETS requirement.

I’m not sure why but the phrase “asthmatic ant with some heavy shopping” springs to mind.

 

[MattRat]

It's nice to hear some intelligent thinking for once. The 68s are far more of a problem than the 185s, and if the 185s stay with TPE, people can stop talking about where to put them, as TPE is already their perfect home.

 

[swt_passenger]

Am I possibly the only one who read this thread’s title as “

“TPE Nova 3 sets to be withdrawn”, with “185s off to TFW”?​

Amazing how you can read it to imply something completely different to how the discussion has progressed…

(The thread title has subsequently been revised to reflect what was probably intended)

 

[Snow1964]

Tfw haven't even had the business case to re-activate the 8th Mk4 set approved yet. So getting all these extra sets approved seems a little difficult to believe especially as the Mk4s have been purchased and the SDO fitment of the first 7 sets literally just completed.

There are two ways of looking at this.

If the spare could be a mk5 set substituting, then it is better to spend money on that than another 33year old mk4 set

The alternative is have no long term plan for these routes so not keeping an eye open to grab any potential stock that would allow services to be improved.

I don't know how Wales focused TfW is, they accept English trains to Cardiff etc, but currently choose not to operate few miles over the English border to big cities like Bristol. What is their focus and aspirations as that might determine what gets approved financially

 

[adamedwards]

The reality is surely that the Mk5s are a mistake (like the 319 to 769 conversions) in that they were supposed to be a quick way to get new trains whilst TransPennine waited for the 802s and 397s to be delivered, but they turned out to be unreliable and so harder to get into service. If I were a train operator I would want a very good deal indeed on these before I would take them on. The threat of them having no home to go to is of course the market force which will drive the price down to something which might then make them worth the hassle. Failing that, they are likely to be the newest vehicles scrapped.

 

[Philip]

Am I possibly the only one who read this thread’s title as “

“TPE Nova 3 sets to be withdrawn”, with “185s off to TFW”?​

Amazing how you can read it to imply something completely different to how the discussion has progressed…

Arguably the way the title reads would make more sense than 68/mk5s going to TfW. If the TPE 68/mk5 fleet should go anywhere else, ScotRail to replace HSTs would probably make the most sense...the power would be good for the hills and even though the reliability would be a risk, at least they'd be replacing 50-year old trains which are corroded, more polluting and less powerful - so almost certainly an upgrade.

 

[D365]

If the TPE 68/mk5 fleet should go anywhere else, ScotRail to replace HSTs would probably make the most sense...the power would be good for the hills and even though the reliability would be a risk, at least they'd be replacing 50-year old trains which are corroded, more polluting and less powerful - so almost certainly an upgrade.

Even though there’s only thirteen rakes?

 

[craigybagel]

As I said on one of the other TfW threads - could it happen? Yes. But you'd need a lot of things to fall into place, many of them unlikely. So will it happen? Almost certainly not.

I know that it maybe a while before it happens and as yet we do not know how the class 93 performs, but would it not be better to leave the change until after the class 93 has been introduced?

Class 93s would be useless on Manchester/Holyhead - Cardiff services. The Marches line is just too hilly

Am I possibly the only one who read this thread’s title as “

“TPE Nova 3 sets to be withdrawn”, with “185s off to TFW”?​

Amazing how you can read it to imply something completely different to how the discussion has progressed…

No I read it like that as well - normally I wouldn't even bother visiting the cesspit that is the speculation section but Google suggested this thread without mentioning where on the forum it was so I had to check in case it was based on actual fact.

 

[RobShipway]

Speculative or otherwise - I’m not sure what problems you are trying to solve here.

Just trying to solve world crisis on what possibly may happen to 13 sets of Mark 5a coaches stock and 14 driving trailers if TPE are going to ditch them! Nothing out of the ordinary within the Speculation forum.

Am I possibly the only one who read this thread’s title as “

“TPE Nova 3 sets to be withdrawn”, with “185s off to TFW”?​

Amazing how you can read it to imply something completely different to how the discussion has progressed…

As I said on one of the other TfW threads - could it happen? Yes. But you'd need a lot of things to fall into place, many of them unlikely. So will it happen? Almost certainly not.

Class 93s would be useless on Manchester/Holyhead - Cardiff services. The Marches line is just too hilly


No I read it like that as well - normally I wouldn't even bother visiting the cesspit that is the speculation section but Google suggested this thread without mentioning where on the forum it was so I had to check in case it was based on actual fact.

Class 93s would be useless on Manchester/Holyhead - Cardiff services. The Marches line is just too hilly

Fair enough.

I must confess I am wondering if many of us are just too gullible and that this is perhaps a joke given what the date is this Saturday?

 

[haggishunter]

Arguably the way the title reads would make more sense than 68/mk5s going to TfW. If the TPE 68/mk5 fleet should go anywhere else, ScotRail to replace HSTs would probably make the most sense...the power would be good for the hills and even though the reliability would be a risk, at least they'd be replacing 50-year old trains which are corroded, more polluting and less powerful - so almost certainly an upgrade.

Pretty sure I recall that 68s and mk3,4 or 5 sets could not match HSTs on the Highland Mainline? The mk5 sleeper consist can’t match 156 timing on the WHL, LNER Azumas can’t match a 2+9 HST on the Highland Mainline, let alone a 2+4 HST.

So if in the hypothetical scenario they came to ScotRail it would surely be better to supplement the HSTs, reducing they number that need to be out each day while still allowing more inter7city services.

Even with a longer journey time, and out and back service from Ft William and Inverness to Edinburgh or Glasgow with Mk5a’s with improved window alignment and the sleeper seats for first and the lounge cars serving proper meals would be a winner!

It’s the speculative thread, don’t ruin it with facts!

 

[MattRat]

Even though there’s only thirteen rakes?

It's not perfect, but they could be used in tandem. You could then keep only the best HSTs, and wouldn't have to substitute with 170s and 158s all the time, which can then be used elsewhere.

 

[a1904]

Can't see any universe in which this would not lead to more three carriage trains across the TPE network which will lead to more overcrowding which will lead to more delays

 

[craigybagel]

Just trying to solve world crisis on what possibly may happen to 13 sets of Mark 5a coaches stock and 14 driving trailers if TPE are going to ditch them! Nothing out of the ordinary within the Speculation forum.

Indeed. Sadly though the most likely scenario if TPE really don't want them is storage. Such is the modern railway.

But if there was another TOC they could go to, to be fair TfW probably is the most likely.

Pretty sure I recall that 68s and mk3,4 or 5 sets could not match HSTs on the Highland Mainline? The mk5 sleeper consist can’t match 156 timing on the WHL, LNER Azumas can’t match a 2+9 HST on the Highland Mainline, let alone a 2+4 HST.

I'd be very surprised if they couldn't match HST timings on the HML. 5 MK5s isn't a particularly challenging load for a 68 and TPE staff have commented on how well they climb up and down the Pennines.

The WHL is a different matter - I would assume the main issue with the sleeper is the reduced speed limit for loco hauled sets, as opposed to the MU speeds the 156s run at. Also, I would expect a 68 to comfortably outperform a 73

Can't see any universe in which this would not lead to more three carriage trains across the TPE network which will lead to more overcrowding which will lead to more delays

Indeed, but since when have the DfT shown any signs of caring about overcrowding?

 

[JonathanH]

Indeed. Sadly though the most likely scenario if TPE really don't want them is storage. Such is the modern railway.

What is sad about that? If something doesn't work, it should be binned, and lessons can be learnt from the mistakes made. That is one of the advantages of leasing rolling stock. It is no different to an office block, or a shop, standing vacant because it isn't needed.

A train should not have sentimental value. It is just an investment, and in the case of these trains a bad one. The 68s could find other freight work. The rolling stock could be rebuilt, or recycled.

 

[skyhigh]

at least they'd be replacing 50-year old trains which are corroded

Although they had significant work to correct that

more polluting

The engines are not 50 years old so the gap may not be as wide as you think...

and less powerful

A single HST powercar has 2250hp so 4500hp on a set. A 68 has 3800hp.

- so almost certainly an upgrade.

For other reasons yes

 

[6Gman]

Random person quotes another random person and people give it credibility. There is so much chaff being flung out when it comes to the TPE 68s.

Somebody told me that the moon is made of cheese. Any takers?

And GBRF have got the contract to fetch said cheese. Using 442s stripped out to carry goods.

Saltley men.

(Already sign the route.)

 

[Greybeard33]

Anything that can go off lease easily/soon is a target. So when does the TPE Mk5s lease end ? OR how likely are TPE to be able to wriggle out due to reliability or suchlike ?.

According to the 2016 TPE franchise agreement, the lease expiry dates for the Mk5a's, 68s, 397s and 802s were to be 1st April 2023 (this was originally to be the end date of the franchise, until the DfT and First agreed early termination in 2021). I stand to be corrected, but I would assume that it remains the case that the stock can be returned to the lessors without penalty from this date.

Given the DfT's current focus on cost cutting, I imagine they will be looking critically at the scope for savings in TPE lease expenditure and other operating costs. The Mk5a+68 fleet would seem to be especially vulnerable unless new "firesale" lease rates have been negotiated.

 

[craigybagel]

What is sad about that? If something doesn't work, it should be binned, and lessons can be learnt from the mistakes made. That is one of the advantages of leasing rolling stock. It is no different to an office block, or a shop, standing vacant because it isn't needed.

A train should not have sentimental value. It is just an investment, and in the case of these trains a bad one. The 68s could find other freight work. The rolling stock could be rebuilt, or recycled.

My sadness has nothing to do about sentimentality. It's sad to see an industry I care about waste money on failed projects, especially when there are so many other areas for potential improvement crying out for investment.

 

[DanNCL]

Some of the stuff I’ve seen in this thread is even more bonkers than ideas that used to float around these forums for 442s.
Mark 5s won’t be going to Chiltern. And Mark 5s definitely won’t be going to WMT!
If TPE axe anything it’ll be 21 185s. Beacon Rail have a fleet that’s almost new with little prospect of finding work elsewhere, they’ll probably offer TPE a price that the DFT can’t refuse. Unlike Eversholt who could easily find someone else to take on 21 185s and therefore have no incentive to lower the price of them.

Indeed so will the other Mark 4s at LNER. So it's really only the ScotRail HST sets to compare with.

Withdrawal of LNER’s Mark 4 sets is not confirmed. There are internal whispers that they may be withdrawn, but there’s also internal whispers that a new contract until 2027 is about to be signed. Nobody outside of the DFT, LNER senior management and Eversholt really knows what the future beyond August is for LNER’s Mark 4s. They may be withdrawn, they may not be.