TPE may keep 185s and send the Mk 5s to TfW

[Jacob Porrett]

Source: Shaun (friend on social media)

Quotes from his messages

"Hearing there is the possibility that TPE will withdraw the Nova 3s and keep the 21 class 185s which were supposed to go off lease instead"

"Hearing TfW are interested in them for their Cardiff - Manchesters"

"13 sets would cover the entire timetable unlike 8 mk4 sets."

"Would also release some 197s to replace the 230s on the borderlands line"

 

[JonathanH]

"Would also release some 197s to replace the 230s on the borderlands line"

I'm sure TfW can find four 197s to replace five 230s without needing to take on 13 Hauled Sets.

Even if the rumour were to end up being true, the reasons put forward for TfW wanting them seem a little non sensical.

 

[43074]

I'm sure TfW can find four 197s to replace five 230s without needing to take on 13 Hauled Sets.

Even if the rumour were to end up being true, the reasons put forward for TfW wanting them seem a little non sensical.

Of all the places to possibly use 68s and Mk5s Manchester to Cardiff seems a good fit, Crewe and Longsight maintain them at the moment so there's no reason that would have to change.

A standard intercity style product on Manchester to Cardiff would seem to be a positive development for TfW if it does happen, TPE stated in an interview with Tony Miles on Rail Business UK in as many words the sets are more trouble for them than it's worth.

 

[JonathanH]

Of all the places to possibly use 68s and Mk5s Manchester to Cardiff seems a good fit, Crewe and Longsight maintain them at the moment so there's no reason that would have to change.

Yes, that is reasonable comment.

A standard intercity style product on Manchester to Cardiff would seem to be a positive development for TfW if it does happen

Again reasonable, although 197s provide this also at lower operational cost and with greater flexibility.

Let's not forget that the window alignment is atrocious on the Mark 5s and the 68s aren't exactly popular with the general public. Locomotive haulage on the Marches remains a vanity project for the Welsh government.

TPE stated in an interview with Tony Miles on Rail Business UK in as many words the sets are more trouble for them than it's worth.

That is the knub of the problem though. How exactly would they not be more trouble that it is worth for TfW as well? It would be a massive step in the dark for TfW to take them on with reliability still unproven.

 

[SuperLuke2334]

It seems like a potential idea, with the usefulness of CAF trains being all over the TFW network soon which makes maintenance easier I'd imagine.

However I would like to know where this 'Shaun' gets their information from as it just seems a bit odd to pop it out of the shadows.

 

[rjames87]

Would this mean they would no longer use the MK4s?

 

[JonathanH]

Would this mean they would no longer use the MK4s?

It is only a rumour. The Mark 4s also work to Holyhead.

 

[RobShipway]

Yes, that is reasonable comment.


Again reasonable, although 197s provide this also at lower operational cost and with greater flexibility.

Let's not forget that the window alignment is atrocious on the Mark 5s and the 68s aren't exactly popular with the general public. Locomotive haulage on the Marches remains a vanity project for the Welsh government.


That is the knub of the problem though. How exactly would they not be more trouble that it is worth for TfW as well? It would be a massive step in the dark for TfW to take them on with reliability still unproven.

I know that it maybe a while before it happens and as yet we do not know how the class 93 performs, but would it not be better to leave the change until after the class 93 has been introduced?

Would this mean they would no longer use the MK4s?

Possibly, they could use the MK4s on Cardiff - Holyhead services and the Mk5A sets on Cardiff - Manchester services replacing the need for DMU's to be used on either service. Otherwise, yes they would be replacing the MK4s.

However, could the Mk4s be used by Chiltern to replace the MK3's?

 

[Nick Ashwell]

However, could the Mk4s be used by Chiltern to replace the MK3's?

Nope, the plan there appears to be a withdrawl of LHCS full stop due to pollution controls wanted by Westminster Council.

Personally I don't see this as viable so soon after the introduction of the Mk.4s and as a Welsh taxpayer would be rather furious if the Mk.4s were withdrawn so quickly, wasting however much

 

[Wolfie]

However, could the Mk4s be used by Chiltern to replace the MK3's?

The chances of DfT/HMT funding that equate to zero.

 

[Anonymous10]

Nope, the plan there appears to be a withdrawl of LHCS full stop due to pollution controls wanted by Westminster Council.

Personally I don't see this as viable so soon after the introduction of the Mk.4s and as a Welsh taxpayer would be rather furious if the Mk.4s were withdrawn so quickly, wasting however much

And even if they displaced the mk4 units to Holyhead that leaves a fair few 2 and 3 car 197 trains without work

 

[Starmill]

How exactly would they not be more trouble that it is worth for TfW as well? It would be a massive step in the dark for TfW to take them on with reliability still unproven.

The risk would be enormous. Of course, doing nothing is also a risk because the mark 4s are old and will reach life expiry soon anyway. However I'd be amazed if this is a solution which would lower risk.

It's not a surprise TPE want to get rid of the sets though. They're shockingly poor.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Mar 2023 ==

And even if they displaced the mk4 units to Holyhead that leaves a fair few 2 and 3 car 197 trains without work

I don't think it does, because in addition to the 230s, they'd just replace the remaining TfW Sprinter work.

 

[Anonymous10]

The risk would be enormous. Of course, doing nothing is also a risk because the mark 4s are old and will reach life expiry soon anyway. However I'd be amazed if this is a solution which would lower risk.

It's not a surprise TPE want to get rid of the sets though. They're shockingly poor.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Mar 2023 ==


I don't think it does, because in addition to the 230s, they'd just replace the remaining TfW Sprinter work.

I think it's 3 2 car units for how and then you have a few 2 car for 230s possibly still seems like a bit of a nonsensical solution if all long distance was to be uniform which was the plan

 

[Starmill]

Locomotive haulage on the Marches remains a vanity project for the Welsh government.

To be fair to them, they were cheap, and it got them out of a hole with the 197 fleet being far too stretched. Chef-cooked meals are questionable, but then they're no longer included in the prices of First Class tickets.

 

[RobShipway]

The chances of DfT/HMT funding that equate to zero.

I know, but had to ask the question so that it was got out of the way before someone asked the question later in the thread!

The risk would be enormous. Of course, doing nothing is also a risk because the mark 4s are old and will reach life expiry soon anyway. However I'd be amazed if this is a solution which would lower risk.

It's not a surprise TPE want to get rid of the sets though. They're shockingly poor.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Mar 2023 ==


I don't think it does, because in addition to the 230s, they'd just replace the remaining TfW Sprinter work.

The oldest MK4 units are 34 years old. How old are the Mk3 units being used by Scotrail, Chiltern and GWR? I do believe that some of the MK3 units where built back in the mid 1970's and could potentially older than the class 313 units!

 

[43096]

I know that it maybe a while before it happens and as yet we do not know how the class 93 performs, but would it not be better to leave the change until after the class 93 has been introduced?

Ah yes, those magical 93s that for some reason people have got into their heads that they'd be fine off wires on passenger trains.

 

[Brubulus]

I thought their was a plan to couple up the 197s at Swansea and run them to Manchester so loco-hauled would be questionable. I think that as soon as 197 assembly begins to wind down at Newport they'll order a few more 2 car units to replace the 153s they're somehow planning to keep long term. Plus 35/40 Mk5a coaches so that WG can claim to have saved jobs at CAF. If the TPE sets are going to go anywhere it'll be ScotRail as they are going to need to end the HST experiment soon and aren't willing to order DMUs.

 

[sd0733]

Tfw haven't even had the business case to re-activate the 8th Mk4 set approved yet. So getting all these extra sets approved seems a little difficult to believe especially as the Mk4s have been purchased and the SDO fitment of the first 7 sets literally just completed.

 

[Starmill]

I know, but had to ask the question so that it was got out of the way before someone asked the question later in the thread!


The oldest MK4 units are 34 years old. How old are the Mk3 units being used by Scotrail, Chiltern and GWR? I do believe that some of the MK3 units where built back in the mid 1970's and could potentially older than the class 313 units!

The class 313s, Chiltern hauled sets and GWR and CrossCountry HSTs will all be withdrawn shortly though.

Indeed so will the other Mark 4s at LNER. So it's really only the ScotRail HST sets to compare with.

 

[Anonymous10]

Tfw haven't even had the business case to re-activate the 8th Mk4 set approved yet. So getting all these extra sets approved seems a little difficult to believe especially as the Mk4s have been purchased and the SDO fitment of the first 7 sets literally just completed.

I thought their was a plan to couple up the 197s at Swansea and run them to Manchester so loco-hauled would be questionable. I think that as soon as 197 assembly begins to wind down at Newport they'll order a few more 2 car units to replace the 153s they're somehow planning to keep long term. Plus 35/40 Mk5a coaches so that WG can claim to have saved jobs at CAF. If the TPE sets are going to go anywhere it'll be ScotRail as they are going to need to end the HST experiment soon and aren't willing to order DMUs.

I think the above is more likely they eventually get replaced with caf mk5 coaches for maintenance built in Newport ect

 

[adamedwards]

"About the contract you signed for the Mk4s."
"What about it?"
"If you want to end the contract early please remember the penalty clause. It's going to cost you a lot to dump them now."
"Oh!"
I'm assuming the Mk4s are not on some crazy deal where TfW can simply walk away and hand them back whenever they like.

This story does come across as a solution looking for a problem. The Mk5s will have to be very cheap and very much more reliable for anyone to take them on.

 

[RobShipway]

I thought their was a plan to couple up the 197s at Swansea and run them to Manchester so loco-hauled would be questionable. I think that as soon as 197 assembly begins to wind down at Newport they'll order a few more 2 car units to replace the 153s they're somehow planning to keep long term. Plus 35/40 Mk5a coaches so that WG can claim to have saved jobs at CAF. If the TPE sets are going to go anywhere it'll be ScotRail as they are going to need to end the HST experiment soon and aren't willing to order DMUs.

I am not sure why, but I cannot see them going to Scotrail. I suspect that they would go to a train Operator already using CAF trains, as they would be commonality then in parts. Also, you would also have to get Scotrail engineers trained up on a sub fleet, which I cannot see happening.

I suspect that if the units go anywhere, that they may go to to Northern or West Midland Trains. I suspect that West Midland Trains is possibly more likely in replacing five class 172 trains made up of 2 car class 172, plus three car 172 units. These class 172 units could then potentially go to EMR.

The class 313s, Chiltern hauled sets and GWR and CrossCountry HSTs will all be withdrawn shortly though.

Indeed so will the other Mark 4s at LNER. So it's really only the ScotRail HST sets to compare with.

Fair point, but as I point out above I don't believe that the Mk5a coaches will go to Scotrail. If Scotrail do not want DMU's, then I suspect that they may take on the MK4's from LNER, in the same way that TFW have done. I believe that LNER though will extend the contract on the MK4's into next year and will continue to use them for a few years, as they currently have nothing to replace the MK4 fleet.

 

[LOL The Irony]

This makes sense and would see them fully utilised but I don't see it happening without some string pulling from the Welsh government.

 

[xotGD]

Random person quotes another random person and people give it credibility. There is so much chaff being flung out when it comes to the TPE 68s.

Somebody told me that the moon is made of cheese. Any takers?

 

[Wolfie]

I suspect that if the units go anywhere, that they may go to to Northern or West Midland Trains. I suspect that West Midland Trains is possibly more likely in replacing five class 172 trains made up of 2 car class 172, plus three car 172 units. These class 172 units could then potentially go to EMR.

Off topic for this thread but why in God's name would WMT, which now has all of the 172s (which are hardly a large fleet), release some to form a stupidly small microfleet elsewhere, in order to take on a similarly illogical microfleet itself?

 

[Peter Sarf]

I thought their was a plan to couple up the 197s at Swansea and run them to Manchester so loco-hauled would be questionable. I think that as soon as 197 assembly begins to wind down at Newport they'll order a few more 2 car units to replace the 153s they're somehow planning to keep long term. Plus 35/40 Mk5a coaches so that WG can claim to have saved jobs at CAF. If the TPE sets are going to go anywhere it'll be ScotRail as they are going to need to end the HST experiment soon and aren't willing to order DMUs.

Scotrail would be my favourite for a new home for the TPE Mk5s. There is enough electrification on the routes they would serve to make Bi-Mode locomotives a possibility. Plus Scotrail are looking at Bi-Mode iirc. Certainly more so than Cardiff Northwards.

I am not sure why, but I cannot see them going to Scotrail. I suspect that they would go to a train Operator already using CAF trains, as they would be commonality then in parts. Also, you would also have to get Scotrail engineers trained up on a sub fleet, which I cannot see happening.

I suspect that if the units go anywhere, that they may go to to Northern or West Midland Trains. I suspect that West Midland Trains is possibly more likely in replacing five class 172 trains made up of 2 car class 172, plus three car 172 units. These class 172 units could then potentially go to EMR.


Fair point, but as I point out above I don't believe that the Mk5a coaches will go to Scotrail. If Scotrail do not want DMU's, then I suspect that they may take on the MK4's from LNER, in the same way that TFW have done. I believe that LNER though will extend the contract on the MK4's into next year and will continue to use them for a few years, as they currently have nothing to replace the MK4 fleet.

My bold. Polmadie, in Scotland, maintains the only other locomotive hauled Mk5s in the UK. So that would be a benefit not a problem. As for "sub-fleet" or micro-fleet - if the HSTs all left Scotland that would still be the same number of sub-fleets.

EDIT
I do think this is all just a rumour. The only concern I have is that TPE do appear to concentrate on running their other types of train more than Mk5s so I can see they the Mk5s must be at the top of TPEs unwanted list.

 

[Mzzzs]

DFT are all about cost-cutting right now however they also need to ensure all assets are being used somewhat to their fullest.
The mk5a are not being used, so moving them to another operator makes sense to actually use the sets. I am sure most TOC can find a use in them.

My personal thought is that I would love them to go to GWR and be used on similar services as the castle sets.

 

[JonathanH]

The mk5a are not being used, so moving them to another operator makes sense to actually use the sets.

It makes even more (financial) sense for them to go off lease with no one using them.

DFT are all about cost-cutting right now however they also need to ensure all assets are being used somewhat to their fullest.

They aren't assets of the DfT though. The DfT needs to pay out in order for them to be used.

My personal thought is that I would love them to go to GWR and be used on similar services as the castle sets.

Not happening. The Castle sets are being replaced by spare capacity in the 80x fleet.

 

[Peter Sarf]

It makes even more (financial) sense for them to go off lease with no one using them.


They aren't assets of the DfT though. The DfT needs to pay out in order for them to be used.


Not happening. The Castle sets are being replaced by spare capacity in the 80x fleet.

Its true. The obvious fact is that if one TOC (TPE) can (or have to) manage with fewer trains the other TOCs will be in the same position.

Anything that can go off lease easily/soon is a target. So when does the TPE Mk5s lease end ? OR how likely are TPE to be able to wriggle out due to reliability or suchlike ?.

 

[Starmill]

Fair point, but as I point out above I don't believe that the Mk5a coaches will go to Scotrail.

No indeed. They would fit even less well there.

If Scotrail do not want DMU's, then I suspect that they may take on the MK4's from LNER, in the same way that TFW have done.

Why wouldn't they want multiple units? Either way they'll be something new, and certainly not mark 4s.

I believe that LNER though will extend the contract on the MK4's into next year and will continue to use them for a few years, as they currently have nothing to replace the MK4 fleet.

There's nothing to replace any of the fleets mentioned above. The operators concerned will simply run fewer or shorter services to compensate. TfW are, of course, an exception.