The man who also electioneered the day after Jo Cox's murder despite the main parties agreeing to suspend it, and had the gall to defend his actions. A shameless individual who deserves anything that may be coming his way.
As he had the Tory whip suspended, he'd have to stand as an 'independent.'
Graham Brady won’t stand at the next election.
That's a rather odd shaped constituency.
Designed to give a guaranteed Tory win for the then MP - Peter Lilley - 2 comfortably well off settlements and a swathe of equally well off country area.
Presumably the first of a number of Tory grandees who've decided that their party has less than a zero chance of being re-elected.
Alternatively, he have looked around him, at those on the green benches and compared what he sees now to what he saw when he was first elected (when Portillo was considered a right wing Tory) - fewer members capable of putting together a coherent argument, more with seemingly unbending views on just about everything, at the rise of the ERG, at the dearth of talent on the front bench, at the number of MPs who have been suspended or had resigned for committing the type misdemeanors that were certainly not public even if they had happened*, when he was first elected and decided that he had had enough of all this. The only way is down for him, he has never been a minister, probably never wanted to be one. His current role seems to be to preside over yet another leadership challenge, where he probably realises that he will come into conflict with the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO).
In 1997 Stafford was the seat that on a uniform swing guaranteed Labour an English yet alone a UK-wide majority. Despite this, the then Tory MP Bill Cash saw the seat to be vulnerable and went on the chicken run up the road to Stone.
Talking of Reading, Labour will retain Reading East and regain Reading West.Some might say that if 13 people want one thing, and 12 want the complete opposite, giving the 13 what they want and telling the 12 to get stuffed (rather than reaching a compromise to keep both groups happy) is not democratic!
Indeed, I am very glad he is going.
I'd rather hope it's May or June 2024; May or June is the normal time. Every election I remember, except that silly 2019 one, took place between April and June inclusive. (Well actually I hope it'll be May or June 2023 personally, as I want to see the back of the godawful political era that we've been plagued with since 2019).
Delaying to October will smack of arrogance and desperation, and will not be good for the Tories - both for that reason and also because as October marks the coming of winter, people are more likely to be a bit down compared to May or June, and might take that out on the incumbents.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Could be I guess, it's well-connected by public transport which might have a correlation with liberal tendency.
Sadly only a hope I suspect, though yes, I'd like that too.
Portsmouth North has come up in the past, but I rather think it will be a Tory hold due to strong social conservatism in that seat.
Portsmouth South is one of those university seats trending Labour, other examples are in Brighton and Reading. I suspect Labour hold with a large increase in majority.
Reading West should be a banker on the basis of Council results, not least with the Green’s becoming the Official Opposition on Reading Council last year with 7 seats and the Tories only having 6.
That's what Electoral Calculus seems to suggest.
In addition to the new rural (hence Tory) seat to the west, there is, though, another new seat to the east, Earley and Woodley, which is more built-up and thus may have a chance of a Labour gain (currently 84% chance, though doubtless this will drop):
I did notice it, but I am not aware of the area, therefore I assumed it was pre-existing and did not check further details.
Lib Dems perform best when they concentrate their efforts at the seats they think they’ve got the best chance at. Any seat they’re within 15k of if they throw the same level of resources into it as they did in the Shropshire, Tiverton and Chesham by elections they could win it.
I do agree with you; it also helps if they have some kind of history in a constituency, possibly through local elections and running local councils, it gives them a base to build on. So in my area I don't think that's my constituency - Tatton - but it applies to Cheadle, Hazel Grove and Stockport more. I'll certainly be refining my thoughts nearer election time because I'm definitely voting against Esther McVey (and Boris Johnson) rather than for Labour or Lib Dems.
Interesting as that was held by Ken Clarke from 1970 until the last election, including the Blair years.
The other one near there is Gedling, which has been mostly Labour before succumbing to Boris' charms. So presumably that one will revert to Labour.
Probably more like just over one year now; it's now March, so a May or June election next year would only be around 15 months from now, max.
Indeed Rushcliffe was indeed held by Clarke during those Labour years; however, it’s a Remain constituency and surrounding areas would move to Labour as the alternative to the Tories. We saw at the 2019 GE that constituencies that were held by Labour for decades and decades fell to the Tories; so it’s not out of the question that Rushcliffe could go the other way.
Then again, one could argue that Sunak doesn’t have anything to lose. Achieving anything less than the 165 seats in 1997 would be considered an absolute bloodbath; so whether the Tories get 50 or 150 seats, it’s a disaster waiting to happen; so might as well maximise the amount of time in office.