Predict gains/losses in your local area in next GE

[Gloster]

Leeds will have lots of boundary changes to add something new into the mix.

Leeds North West will be split in half, with the inner-city part going into the new Headingley constituency which will be an ultra-safe Labour seat. The outer part (Otley, Yeadon, Wharfedale) will join with Horsforth and Guiseley (from the existing Pudsey seat) to form a new seat, confusingly also named Leeds North West. This could well be a future 3-way marginal and one to watch.

The existing Leeds West seat will also be split up in the boundary changes. Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is the current MP. Will she be satisfied with standing for election in the new Pudsey constituency (Bramley, Armley, Pudsey and Farsley wards), which would appear to be the closest geographical fit to her existing seat? Although this seems fairly safe for Labour as a whole, Pudsey ward has been trending rapidly towards the Tories in recent local elections. Or will she claim the ultra-safe new Headingley seat? In that case, Alex Sobel (current Labour Leeds North West MP) will be forced to stand in the new Leeds North West, although culturally he would fit with the Headingley student population far better than Rachel Reeves would.

Meanwhile Leeds East, home to Corbynite Richard Burgon, will be gaining more Tory-leaning commuter territory in Garforth, making it a much more marginal seat. But it seems it won't lose Harehills, home to Leeds' strongest Asian population and reliably Labour, after all, so Burgon will probably be safe.

So a gain for the Conservatives there.

 

[rapmastaj]

So a gain for the Conservatives there.

I doubt it! I'd guess Burgon will hang on. And if the new Leeds North West goes Labour, that'll be a gain for Labour.

 

[JonathanH]

I doubt it! I'd guess Burgon will hang on. And if the new Leeds North West goes Labour, that'll be a gain for Labour.

The OP was being ironic about the qualities of Mr Burgon, whose relevance has diminished since the change of leader. I wonder whether Mr Burgon will manage the same 37 year term of holding the seat as Denis Healey managed - seems plausible that he could still be the incumbent until 2052.

 

[infobleep]

Guildford - Lib Dem gain. Well connected university town, and was Lib Dem briefly in the past. I'd again suggest a Lib Dem gain this time.

I think you may be right.

I'd like a coalition. Be happy with Lib Dem and Labour but I think if any coalition took place it would be SNP and Labour.

As for when, Lewis Goodall, on his LBC show, suggested October 2024.

The election must be called by 18 December 2024. If the Conservatives think they are likely to lose then I think they will delay for as long as possible so they can remain in power for as long as possible.

I work as poll clerk so any election that is outside the usual dates of May usually means extra money and I'm not going to turn that down. So from a selfish point of view I'd like it in Autumn 2024. For my electoral services collages, October is the usual canvas of electors period so they might not welcome it then.

 

[rapmastaj]

The OP was being ironic about the qualities of Mr Burgon, whose relevance has diminished since the change of leader. I wonder whether Mr Burgon will manage the same 37 year term of holding the seat as Denis Healey managed - seems plausible that he could still be the incumbent until 2052.

Yes, I realised

I wouldn't be surprised if Burgon is forced out fairly soon, one way or another, the way Labour is going under Starmer.

 

[JonathanH]

I wouldn't be surprised if Burgon is forced out fairly soon, one way or another, the way Labour is going under Starmer.

That will be a shame because it is quite good fun comparing the following he has on his side of the party with what he has in the rest of the political arena.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Following on from the discussion in the Tories/Sunak thread, I wonder if people have any idea about changes in their local area, assuming a GE in around 15 months' time (so May or June 2024).

I'll go with Hampshire, Surrey, West Sussex and the IoW.

The south of course tends Tory anyway, so maybe not many seats will flip, but I predict:

Southampton Itchen - will be a Labour gain. It was Labour from 1992 to 2015, there has been rightwards movement recently but I suspect it's the sort of urban seat that will flip next time.

Winchester - Lib Dem gain. The Lib Dems had high hopes last time and came close, but not quite there. This time I think it'll inevitably be a Lib Dem gain.

Esher and Walton - Lib Dem gain. Raab is unpopular and it swung markedly towards the Lib Dems last time. I think they'll take it this time, particularly if Raab remains the Tory candidate.

Guildford - Lib Dem gain. Well connected university town, and was Lib Dem briefly in the past. I'd again suggest a Lib Dem gain this time.

Finally a wildcard: Worthing East and Shoreham - Labour gain. Tory majority not vast (7500) and dropped to 5100 in 2017, before certain voters drunk the Boris kool-aid. Nonetheless Worthing council was Labour gain last time, and I get the impression the area is getting more liberal due to influx of people from Brighton.

Other than that, all other seats to be a hold for the existing party, mostly the Tories.

Woking. Lib Dem gain. The Lib Dem’s took the council last time round after well over a decade having a Tory majority.

South West Surrey. Lib Dem gain. This is a hope more than anything because I want Hunt to have a Portillo moment.

Portsmouth North. Labour gain. This seat tends to flip flop to whomever is in government at the time. In 1974, it went to Labour, in 1979 to the Tories, in 1997 to Labour and 2010 to Penny Mordaunt.

Portsmouth South is an interesting one. Portsmouth is a university city and the student vote turned it Lib Dem in 1997. This was held until 2013 when Mike Hancock was expelled from the Lib Dems. It went briefly Tory before going to Labour in 2017... I suspect a Labour hold with a reduced majority.

 

[nw1]

The present South Ribble constituency however is the more typical marginal seat that votes for the winner, being Labour from 1997 - 2010, but with Southport losing its most Labour voting wards closest to Liverpool and its best ever result for Labour in 2019 (although that was the fault of Jo Swinson and her undemocratic “Lib Dems to stop Brexit” rubbish)

Some might say that if 13 people want one thing, and 12 want the complete opposite, giving the 13 what they want and telling the 12 to get stuffed (rather than reaching a compromise to keep both groups happy) is not democratic!

But note the quite disgusting comments made by Crispin Blunt in support of the disgraced former Conservative MP for Wakefield, a convicted paedophile.

Indeed, I am very glad he is going.

I think you may be right.

I'd like a coalition. Be happy with Lib Dem and Labour but I think if any coalition took place it would be SNP and Labour.

As for when, Lewis Goodall, on his LBC show, suggested October 2024.

The election must be called by 18 December 2024. If the Conservatives think they are likely to lose then I think they will delay for as long as possible so they can remain in power for as long as possible.

I work as poll clerk so any election that is outside the usual dates of May usually means extra money and I'm not going to turn that down. So from a selfish point of view I'd like it in Autumn 2024. For my electoral services collages, October is the usual canvas of electors period so they might not welcome it then.

I'd rather hope it's May or June 2024; May or June is the normal time. Every election I remember, except that silly 2019 one, took place between April and June inclusive. (Well actually I hope it'll be May or June 2023 personally, as I want to see the back of the godawful political era that we've been plagued with since 2019).

Delaying to October will smack of arrogance and desperation, and will not be good for the Tories - both for that reason and also because as October marks the coming of winter, people are more likely to be a bit down compared to May or June, and might take that out on the incumbents.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2023 ==

Woking. Lib Dem gain. The Lib Dem’s took the council last time round after well over a decade having a Tory majority.

Could be I guess, it's well-connected by public transport which might have a correlation with liberal tendency.

South West Surrey. Lib Dem gain. This is a hope more than anything because I want Hunt to have a Portillo moment.

Sadly only a hope I suspect, though yes, I'd like that too.

Portsmouth North. Labour gain. This seat tends to flip flop to whomever is in government at the time. In 1974, it went to Labour, in 1979 to the Tories, in 1997 to Labour and 2010 to Penny Mordaunt.

Portsmouth North has come up in the past, but I rather think it will be a Tory hold due to strong social conservatism in that seat.

Portsmouth South is an interesting one. Portsmouth is a university city and the student vote turned it Lib Dem in 1997. This was held until 2013 when Mike Hancock was expelled from the Lib Dems. It went briefly Tory before going to Labour in 2017... I suspect a Labour hold with a reduced majority.

Portsmouth South is one of those university seats trending Labour, other examples are in Brighton and Reading. I suspect Labour hold with a large increase in majority.

 

[Yew]

Major's government arrived at a point when, no matter what they did, they were always going to lose - and, arguably, that government contained a few better quality politicians than today's. This government has hit that point too, but Starmer doesn't appear to be another Blair; perhaps a competent 'administrator', but not a leader. My impression is that he generally waits to see which way the wind is blowing.... and then follows it. For all his faults, Blair was far more of a conviction politician and put his points over with some charisma. So my guess is that there will be no landslide, but that Labour will achieve a sizeable majority.

After the last few years, I could get on board with a boring administrator, even if it is Kier Starmer.

 

[Typhoon]

After the last few years, I could get on board with a boring administrator, even if it is Kier Starmer.

In my opinion, the best Prime Minister in my lifetime (not that I remember it) was Clem Attlee, an administrator if there ever was one. He had a stack of able ministers, unfortunately I'm less convinced about the current shadow cabinet.

 

[507020]

Some might say that if 13 people want one thing, and 12 want the complete opposite, giving the 13 what they want and telling the 12 to get stuffed (rather than reaching a compromise to keep both groups happy) is not democratic!

I suspect it might be difficult to establish what Southport excluding Ainsdale but including the surrounding villages will want until election night.

 

[infobleep]

I'd rather hope it's May or June 2024; May or June is the normal time. Every election I remember, except that silly 2019 one, took place between April and June inclusive. (Well actually I hope it'll be May or June 2023 personally, as I want to see the back of the godawful political era that we've been plagued with since 2019).

Delaying to October will smack of arrogance and desperation, and will not be good for the Tories - both for that reason and also because as October marks the coming of winter, people are more likely to be a bit down compared to May or June, and might take that out on the incumbents.

If you were in power and thought you might lose next time, when would you like the election to be held?

 

[nw1]

If you were in power and thought you might lose next time, when would you like the election to be held?

I see what you mean, but one also has to think of the effect on their reputation. Holding on beyond the obvious date of next May/June will smack of arrogance and desparation, as I said, and will I suspect cause them to perform worse than they would in a May/June election. They need to recognise that their time is up, offer an election, and if they lose, spend 4 or 5 years regrouping and detoxifying. And the sooner they can begin the regrouping and detoxifying process, the better it will be for them in the long run.

Plus, as I said, no-one wants an election in the winter months, when people are more likely to be in a bad mood for various reasons, and there are of course restricted hours of daylight for campaigning.

 

[Thirteen]

May or June makes the most sense, I'd say tie it with local and Mayoral elections.

 

[507020]

They need to recognise that their time is up, offer an election, and if when they lose, spend 4 or 5 years regrouping and detoxifying. And the sooner they can begin the regrouping and detoxifying process, the better it will be for them in the long run.

Plus, as I said, no-one wants an election in the winter months, when people are more likely to be in a bad mood for various reasons

Them regrouping within the 4-5 years of an electoral cycle is what we don’t want! The Tories must remain a thoroughly broken, unelectable party beyond May 2029, for Kier Starmer’s Labour government to implement proportional representation in its 2nd term. That will keep them out for good, a few years in advance of the major demographic changes and lack of action on the climate as we approach the 2nd half of the century shifts us to the left anyway.

(Forgive me as I have made a minor correction to your original post)

 

[duncanp]

If you were in power and thought you might lose next time, when would you like the election to be held?

Which is of course exactly what the Labour party did in 2010, holding off calling the election until the last possible moment, because they thought they were going to lose.

My guess is that the election will be in May or June, following the budget in March, where they will find some money to raise the income tax thresholds.

If the economy is doing badly, they may hold off calling the election until October, but they can't realistically postpone it any further.

 

[nw1]

(unintentional reply - mods please delete)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2023 ==

Them regrouping within the 4-5 years of an electoral cycle is what we don’t want! The Tories must remain a thoroughly broken, unelectable party beyond May 2029, for Kier Starmer’s Labour government to implement proportional representation in its 2nd term. That will keep them out for good, a few years in advance of the major demographic changes and lack of action on the climate as we approach the 2nd half of the century shifts us to the left anyway.

(Forgive me as I have made a minor correction to your original post)

True, though I'd far rather a relatively centrist version of the Tories comes back than anything approaching the current lot.

(Though I would definitely prefer them out of power for 10-15 years, or ideally forever).

 

[brad465]

So a gain for the Conservatives there.

I doubt it! I'd guess Burgon will hang on. And if the new Leeds North West goes Labour, that'll be a gain for Labour.

Jokes aside, if Leeds overall is supportive of HS2 then the scaling back of the Eastern leg to not serve there will be used against the Tories.

 

[rapmastaj]

Jokes aside, if Leeds overall is supportive of HS2 then the scaling back of the Eastern leg to not serve there will be used against the Tories.

Tbh I'd guess most people in Leeds couldn't care less about HS2. The council and a few business folk over in north Leeds / Ilkley / Harrogate way could be pissed off about it, but for the majority, if they care about rail at all, the horrendous failures of TPE will be a far more important electoral issue.

 

[david1212]

At the last GE our Labour MP retained the seat with a majority of only a few hundred. He is a back-bencher and has a genuine interest in local issues, unlike his conservative predecessor.

Two adjacent constituancies are strongly conservative so very unlikely either would change to Labour. For one there ought to be a difference depending if the current MP stands again or not. He ought to be ousted but that would only be by a Green or Liberal MP while I suspect he would retain the seat.

Several years ago the chairman of our County Council and a few others were ousted by the Green candidate but that is very different to a GE.

Where I work is strongly Labour and unlikely to change beyond a bigger majority.

 

[Busaholic]

Romford is probably still safe for another election cycle or two, but how much longer can it stay Conservative against the prevailing London headwinds? The spillover from rock-solid Labour areas like Ilford, Newham and Hackney, coupled with the Elizabeth Line can only mean one thing in the future for Romford...

Given Andrew Rossindell has been barred from Parliament since May 2022, which his constituents are well aware of even though he's never 'officially' been named, I think the seat could well change hands. Farage's bunch wouldn't have challenged the seat if the furthest right of all Tory MPs had stood again, but they would doubtless save their deposit here. The local Romford Mercury newspaper deserves great credit for losing patience with the news blackout in July 2022 and naming him, after which many other sources did too.

 

[Horizon22]

Given Andrew Rossindell has been barred from Parliament since May 2022, which his constituents are well aware of even though he's never 'officially' been named, I think the seat could well change hands. Farage's bunch wouldn't have challenged the seat if the furthest right of all Tory MPs had stood again, but they would doubtless save their deposit here. The local Romford Mercury newspaper deserves great credit for losing patience with the news blackout in July 2022 and naming him, after which many other sources did too.

The seat has quite a substantial majority of 17,000 though. It evidently won't be that high this time, but I doubt it would go that far across.

As for those stating the Lib Dems seats will change hands many will, however I don't think it will be all stated because there's much less of a core vote there and they rely on councillors, activists and members to actually do the hard graft more than Labour and the Tories. So some obvious ones might be Esher and Walton, Guildford, Wimbledon which has a relatively wealthy but actually socially liberal outlook on life as well as others that were also held by Lib Dems in the past (Winchester, Eastbourne, Hazel Grove) and still have a good base might too.

It would be hard for the Lib Dems to top more than 30 seats on prevailing trends only, such is the way that the electoral system works.

 

[McRhu]

Lanark &Hamilton East. Labour win with Conservatives a close second. People’s SNP Front third, SNP People’s Front 4th, The Front for the Scottish People’s National Party 5th, etc, etc.

(For the avoidance of potential conflict I am alluding to the possibility of a potential split in the SNP, which might just fragment their vote.)

 

[philosopher]

Bermondsey and Old Southwark. An unusual seat in that it is only Labour and the Lib Dems who have a chance. The Tories are usually a distance third. Until a few weeks ago I would have said this was a near certain win for Labour. However the MP, Neil Coyle has been embroiled in some controversy over the past few weeks. I think Labour will still win, but it will be a close election.

 

[Horizon22]

Bermondsey and Old Southwark. An unusual seat in that it is only Labour and the Lib Dems who have a chance. The Tories are usually a distance third. Until a few weeks ago I would have said this was a near certain win for Labour. However the MP, Neil Coyle has been embroiled in some controversy over the past few weeks. I think Labour will still win, but it will be a close election.

I don't. The old Lib Dem MP had a strong personal vote and there were lots of local councillors. There are now fewer councillors and no such personal vote. Labour will easily win that as the Lib Dems have bigger targets in London.

 

[nw1]

Given Andrew Rossindell has been barred from Parliament since May 2022, which his constituents are well aware of even though he's never 'officially' been named, I think the seat could well change hands. Farage's bunch wouldn't have challenged the seat if the furthest right of all Tory MPs had stood again, but they would doubtless save their deposit here. The local Romford Mercury newspaper deserves great credit for losing patience with the news blackout in July 2022 and naming him, after which many other sources did too.

Ah Rosindell, the man who, IIRC, threw a Brexit party in his constituency (apparently open to anyone) on Jan 31 2020 as a "celebration".

Wasn't aware he had been barred from Parliament though. EDIT: did a bit of googling. Ah.

 

[DC1989]

Rosindell is my MP and despite pretty much everyone in the area knowing he groomed a young teenager who eventually became leader of the council, will still win. It's shameful stuff

 

[yorksrob]

Ah ok, thanks for the clarification. No, I've never been (well more accurately, I went round the edge in 1994 but not into the centre, and maybe it didn't have that character at that time).

The Green Party is not pro-Brexit, surely?

See for example: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/...ng-closer-relationship-with-eu-on-europe-day/

Talking of Totnes, that's another strange one. I've heard of it being more progressive yet it has been solidly Tory, though one gets the impression former MP Sarah Wollaston was not, by any means, a hard Tory - and eventually flipped to the Lib Dems. But she couldn't hold the seat and they presumably got a Borisbot instead.

I agree - the blonde one, for all his faults, is still personally very popular with a large part of the electorate, both traditional tory voters and those who switched from labour in 2019. In a sense this is something he has in common with Blair - whatever you may think of their policies, they both knew how to fight an election.

I think we need to be careful listening too much to opinion polls. They may show a large lead for Labour, but I believe there will be a lot of people who won't want to admit they're planning to vote tory, but when they're in the privacy of the voting booth, that's where they'll mark their x.



I was confused by that comment too - the Green Party were pro-remain, and although they 'respect the referendum result' are pushing for closer relationships with the EU. I suspect if there is ever a referendum on re-joining the EU (or common market etc) they would be firmly on the 'yes' side.

The Scottish Greens are separatists, as far as I'm aware. Whatever their views on Brexit, they're not concerned about breaking up Btitain.

 

[nw1]

If an MP has serious allegations made against them, presumably they will be deselected and someone else will stand next time. One would hope, anyway.

 

[Revilo]

If an MP has serious allegations made against them, presumably they will be deselected and someone else will stand next time. One would hope, anyway.

But they are only allegations. Innocent until proven guilty.