I don't work on the railway but l imagine that rigid staff application of all H&S law, regulations etc could pretty much bring things to a shuddering half....
Let’s be honest the railway could be made to run pretty terribly for as long as this government is likely to remain in power. The current issues at TPE/AWC would spread much more widely over the network. Even the legislation we are discussing isn’t likely to be in much before the end of the year (AIUI), and there’s nothing to stop RDW bans and work to rule continuing after that. There’s no way they will want that kind of thing in the run up to the GE, so I suspect they will want to settle by spring/summer 2023 latest.
ASLEF are (supposedly) making good progress with RDG according to their latest communications and there is an update to members later this week.
Favours would end. If your last train gets cancelled then you'll have to sit in the messroom until your booked finish time, rather than asking the TCS if you can go home early.
Zero favours goes both ways, of course: refusal to do anything not on diagram, taking the absolute maximum possible time to do things, no overtime. Nobody wants to work like that because it’s childish and petty, but things can certainly be made very, very awkward if the company starts behaving like that in the first place.
There simply isn't a realistic alternative to replace the capacity it provides for such places.
So how about simply negotiating in good faith (including perhaps allowing more localised negotiations), making a fair (still below inflation) offer, with reasonable (ie much more minor) changes to Ts and Cs and settling the dispute?
That is the glaringly obvious solution for those who
actually want the railway to improve for both staff and passengers, rather than just wanting to see unions attacked at any cost.
I think that is highly likely. A 25% service will require 40%+ staffing. A good way of neutering strike action.
No doubt that’s what they’d really like, but if the levels get set too high they’d potentially run into embarrassing ECHR Article 11 type challenges.
Even a 25% service - not that much more than we have currently on RMT strike days - isn’t that useable and would potentially lead to dangerous levels of overcrowding; something increasingly likely as numbers travelling rise (we’ve all become used to quieter trains, but overcrowding has returned with a vengeance). So that neatly goes back to the question of what is this legislation
really likely to achieve, other than making the UK government look like it’s taking advice from Moscow on how to manage its internal affairs.