What decisions could the UK actually take to avoid managed decline?

[simonw]

In that highly unlikely situation then you might have to take other measures, for example using internal passports to expel the economically inactive from high-demand areas. Send the pensioners to wherever the cheapest housing is.

But the reality is that there is nowhere in the UK where increased housing provision is not practical.
As to desirable, desirable for the general population or for the subset of comparatively rich homeowners?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jan 2023 ==


But the reality is that those areas' unattractiveness is inherent!

Human history has been characterised by ever-increasing urbanisation, it even survived the coming of massively increased mobility from motor vehicles.

Living in small towns in the middle of nowhere is simply not attractive to a large enough fraction of the population. They were only sustained by outmoded means of agricultural production that simply no longer exist.
Human settlements have appeared and vanished throughout human history, it is only in 1948 that we suddenly decide that the urban structure of the country must remain fixed for the rest of time.

Economic output will be dramatically held down if we continue to force people to live in random small towns in the countryside, which the house price imbalance demonstrates they don't want to live in.
And in any case, there is still a massive national housing shortage.

I'm not talking about small towns, I'm talking about the economies of cities outside the SE.

 

[nw1]

Until you try it (early retirement) you will not know. To follow your argument means that you should never retire but work until you drop dead !.

I do know that I would have very little spending money (if I wanted my pension to last the rest of my life). I'd be constantly worrying about money and having to live an austere lifestyle, so it definitely isn't something that remotely appeals to me. If you raid your pension aged 57, there's less available when you're 70 or older.

And without the money to spend on leisure pursuits, nor the occupation of a job, it wouldn't be good psychologically (for me, at least).

Plus it makes you "feel old", older than you actually are. I am "young for my age" so the notion of retiring below the normal age is a complete anathema personally.

There are limits however - I did say I would not support increasing the retirement age to 70 or above.

 

[The Ham]

Which demonstrates a massive, massive flaw in that PTAL figure.

MKC is excellently connected by rail to London, and good (but not excellent due to a lack of late evening service on Saturdays when most needed) to Birmingham.

Public transport to Stansted Airport, say? Nope. Occasional coach from Coachway. Wellingborough? Nope. And so on.

Public transport in the SE is good at getting people to/from Central London, and only that. Clearly PTAL doesn't consider enough about practicalities.

Cars will not and should not go away. The approach needs to be to discourage their most harmful uses (that is, driving them into the very dense parts of large cities) and on electrifying them. A car club isn't good enough, as there's not guaranteed availability.

Which is why it isn't used outside of London, as in London there's a good chance a short hop will get you to an interchange to go where you want to go.

However the difference between 4 (score of 15-20) and 6a (score of 25-40) and 6b (score of 40+) is quite significant (even 6a is about double that of a 4) to the extent where you'd need something like 2 MKC's worth of public transport to get to a score of 6.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jan 2023 ==

I do know that I would have very little spending money (if I wanted my pension to last the rest of my life). I'd be constantly worrying about money and having to live an austere lifestyle, so it definitely isn't something that remotely appeals to me. If you raid your pension aged 57, there's less available when you're 70 or older.

And without the money to spend on leisure pursuits, nor the occupation of a job, it wouldn't be good psychologically (for me, at least).

There are limits however - I did say I would not support increasing the retirement age to 70 or above.

It's why many work part time from 55(ish) once they've reduced their mortgage to having a few years left and then retiring fully at 70.

 

[nw1]

It's why many work part time from 55(ish) once they've reduced their mortgage to having a few years left and then retiring fully at 70.

Good luck to them. Not all of us were lucky enough to get a mortgage aged 25 or 30! I'm Gen-X and had to wait until almost 40, and for millennials I'd imagine it is even worse.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's why many work part time from 55(ish) once they've reduced their mortgage to having a few years left and then retiring fully at 70.

I certainly expect to "step down" a bit in work terms when I get to 55-60 or so even though I'm unlikely to retire until at least 70.

 

[Broucek]

And herein lies the reason that we have to use rather large sticks to stop people from owning a car which is used maybe a few dozen times a year when public transport is very good (actually crazily good compared to almost anywhere else in the country).

Wow. Just wow. Thats one of the most despicably controlling manifestos I’ve ever heard.

I hope you and people like you never get anywhere near public office.

I LOVE my car. I live right by the tube and buses and I use them all the time but I STILL love my car….

 

[johncrossley]

I do know that I would have very little spending money (if I wanted my pension to last the rest of my life). I'd be constantly worrying about money and having to live an austere lifestyle

But when you retire (or semi-retire) most people realise they don't need as much money as they thought. For some, it dawns on them that they have wasted huge amounts of money over the years for no good reason and they probably could have retired even earlier. As stated, you don't realise until then. Lots of people wouldn't be retiring early now if they preferred going to work.

 

[nw1]

But when you retire (or semi-retire) most people realise they don't need as much money as they thought. For some, it dawns on them that they have wasted huge amounts of money over the years for no good reason and they probably could have retired even earlier. As stated, you don't realise until then. Lots of people wouldn't be retiring early now if they preferred going to work.

Maybe but what do you do about the unexpected expenses of life? Things like dental treatment, or maintenance work, which can add up to quite a bit. By cutting your income, you end up struggling if these kind of things occur.

 

[simonw]

But when you retire (or semi-retire) most people realise they don't need as much money as they thought. For some, it dawns on them that they have wasted huge amounts of money over the years for no good reason and they probably could have retired even earlier. As stated, you don't realise until then. Lots of people wouldn't be retiring early now if they preferred going to work.

actually a fair number of people find they either want to spend more money as they have more spare time, or need to spend more due to various factors.

 

[johncrossley]

Maybe but what do you do about the unexpected expenses of life? Things like dental treatment, or maintenance work, which can add up to quite a bit. By cutting your income, you end up struggling if these kind of things occur.

Everyone needs to have a few thousand saved up regardless of your age to pay for unexpected expenses. A lot of people retiring in their 50s have a net worth excluding housing of at least a quarter of a million. Obviously people living "pay cheque to pay cheque" won't retire early, if ever. That includes a lot of people who have earned a good salary most of their lives but have been unable to resist high spending.

 

[najaB]

If you read this thread you would think that the cities are where all the jobs are. But if you look at the maps here

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8748/CBP-8748.pdf
the highest unemployment rates are in the major metropolitan areas. The lowest unemployment rates are in rural England.

Because people move away from rural areas when they can't find a job. So the people who don't leave likely already have a job.

 

[The Ham]

Wow. Just wow. Thats one of the most despicably controlling manifestos I’ve ever heard.

I hope you and people like you never get anywhere near public office.

I LOVE my car. I live right by the tube and buses and I use them all the time but I STILL love my car….

Maybe reread my post on the context of a new development site with a PTAL of 6 (major station with good bus links, most likely in inner London) which was providing zero car parking spaces in response to a post about how there should be no sticks.

By all means own a car in London, but don't expect developments in highly accessible locations in inner London to be suitable for you to own a car. That either means paying to park your car or moving to a less accessable location where there will be more parking provision (although in London parking provision is still likely to be quite a bit lower than in areas outside of London).

Regardless how anyone feels about cars they are primarily about getting from A to B, much like any other form of transport. The issue is there generally too many cars in this country, especially in highly accessable locations.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Most places which are 6 are likely to have access to a choice of car club vehicles.

Why would you spend over £2,000 a year (average car ownership costs are currently over £3,500/year, see link below, so £2,000 is quite a way below the average) for something that you probably aren't going to use all that often.

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Someone with 2 kids who lived in Brighton never owned a car, used public transport for day to day. When they went to visit their parents would use a car club car for the weekend (using their own kids car seats), as they did that less than a dozen times a year.



Depends where, check out this map, it's surprising just how much the scores drop off:

Experience

tfl.gov.uk

For example whilst South Croydon Station is 5, not that far from it drops to 3 and not much further out dropping to 1b.

Blimay - I am only 1b but, like you say it drops off quite quickly from higher numbers. Really could do with a new scale as a lot of places must be lumped in the "1".

I do know that I would have very little spending money (if I wanted my pension to last the rest of my life). I'd be constantly worrying about money and having to live an austere lifestyle, so it definitely isn't something that remotely appeals to me. If you raid your pension aged 57, there's less available when you're 70 or older.

And without the money to spend on leisure pursuits, nor the occupation of a job, it wouldn't be good psychologically (for me, at least).

Plus it makes you "feel old", older than you actually are. I am "young for my age" so the notion of retiring below the normal age is a complete anathema personally.

There are limits however - I did say I would not support increasing the retirement age to 70 or above.

Well. We will have to wait to see how many of those Furlough-retirees drift back to work, how soon and how many hours per week.

For me I am managing OK financially and I suspect many others are. Biggest deal is I feel the urge to get out of the house - but I can now go where my interests take me. And I used to be one of those who hoped to carry on working part time after I reached 66. But I just do not need the stress and bull**** that came with jobs.

Wow. Just wow. Thats one of the most despicably controlling manifestos I’ve ever heard.

I hope you and people like you never get anywhere near public office.

I LOVE my car. I live right by the tube and buses and I use them all the time but I STILL love my car….

Last paragraph sums me up as well. I am proud of my use of walking and public transport but I don't want to go without a car altogether. Made worse by the decline of Croydon town centre (where the buses nearly go). We now need to go to out of town for food shopping. I have also discovered that Sutton and Bromley are far far better than Croydon for other stuff.

But when you retire (or semi-retire) most people realise they don't need as much money as they thought. For some, it dawns on them that they have wasted huge amounts of money over the years for no good reason and they probably could have retired even earlier. As stated, you don't realise until then. Lots of people wouldn't be retiring early now if they preferred going to work.

There is no commuting costs, no need to book a holiday to look forward to, no need for treats to help you through the day.

actually a fair number of people find they either want to spend more money as they have more spare time, or need to spend more due to various factors.

This can be true - it is one of the costs of unemployment. But it depends how busy you keep yourself with hobbies etc.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Wow. Just wow. Thats one of the most despicably controlling manifestos I’ve ever heard.

I hope you and people like you never get anywhere near public office.

I LOVE my car. I live right by the tube and buses and I use them all the time but I STILL love my car….

You might well LOVE your car. But I wonder if other people love the pollution, the noise, and the extra congestion that you undoubtedly inflict on them, without their having any say in the matter, whenever you use it?

There are very good reasons why we need to discourage car use - and it's not - as you seem to be saying - about controlling people, it's about protecting all the people who are harmed by unnecessary car use (which is pretty much anyone who lives in a city) .

 

[Peter Sarf]

You might well LOVE your car. But I wonder if other people love the pollution, the noise, and the extra congestion that you undoubtedly inflict on them, without their having any say in the matter, whenever you use it?

There are very good reasons why we need to discourage car use - and it's not - as you seem to be saying - about controlling people, it's about protecting all the people who are harmed by unnecessary car use (which is pretty much anyone who lives in a city) .

He reckons he still uses public transport and so like me the car is a little used possession that is quite essential for a certain few journeys. I suppose the pollution using your own car occasionally vs a hire-car/car-club-car is the same anyway.

The carbon footprint might be worth considering though. In my case my car is far older than a car club car would be so I am avoiding the carbon footprint of manufacture. However someone else might buy a brand new car every few years even though they hardly use it !.

 

[The Ham]

He reckons he still uses public transport and so like me the car is a little used possession that is quite essential for a certain few journeys. I suppose the pollution using your own car occasionally vs a hire-car/car-club-car is the same anyway.

The carbon footprint might be worth considering though. In my case my car is far older than a car club car would be so I am avoiding the carbon footprint of manufacture. However someone else might buy a brand new car every few years even though they hardly use it !.

Part of the issue is that parked cars take up highway space (I would say road space but too often they are parked partway across footways), in many urban streets this results in a single track road for traffic to use.

This massively restricts what can use those streets. They aren't great for cycling along, as other cars can't get past and so get grumpy when they meet a cyclist, when there's two cars going in opposite directions they need to find a gap to pass (sometimes only available at junctions).

Likewise, especially if there's parking of the footways, it doesn't make for a great walking route either. However even if they aren't parked on the footway then just the car being parked right next to the kerb restricted the available footway width (as typically any first with a vertical feature (wall, fence, hedge, parked car, etc.) feels about half a metre narrower than one alongside a grass verge, when the footway is 1.8m that can feel quite narrow. If a car parks 0.25m into it then it ends up feeling about 1m wide, when typically a person needs about 0.6m of width to walk in.

 

[yorksrob]

Well, I've always wondered what forty years of unfettered market capitalism has achieved, and now the IMF has an answer - the worst economic forecast of all major economies, including Russia:

UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 - IMF

Even sanctions-hit Russia is expected to grow this year, but the IMF says the UK is "on the right track".

www.bbc.co.uk

The UK economy will shrink and perform worse than other advanced economies as the cost of living continues to hit households, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted.
However, the IMF also said that after the Autumn Statement it thinks the UK economy is now "on the right track".
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the UK outperformed many forecasts last year.
But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the figures showed the UK "lagging behind our peers".
In its World Economic Outlook update, the IMF, which works to stabilise economic growth, said the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would shrink rather than grow by 0.3% this year.

Proof, if needed that over-reliance on the global "free market" has been an unmitigated disaster.

The first thing the Government needs to do is to suspend all new licensing for North Sea fuel extraction until they can come up with a model that supports the British economy, rather than multi-nationals.

 

[Broucek]

He reckons he still uses public transport and so like me the car is a little used possession that is quite essential for a certain few journeys.

Thanks, yes that's exactly it. Also, I wonder how many woman are in on this discussion? Our church is bus-able but my wife would always to go to any evening meeting by car for safety (and because bus frequency tails off in the evening).

 

[Parjon]

And herein lies the reason that we have to use rather large sticks to stop people from owning a car which is used maybe a few dozen times a year when public transport is very good (actually crazily good compared to almost anywhere else in the country).

I am curious, if they only use their car a dozen times a year, what problem do you believe is being solved by taking that away from them?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jan 2023 ==

Well, I've always wondered what forty years of unfettered market capitalism has achieved, and now the IMF has an answer - the worst economic forecast of all major economies, including Russia:

UK expected to be only major economy to shrink in 2023 - IMF

Even sanctions-hit Russia is expected to grow this year, but the IMF says the UK is "on the right track".

www.bbc.co.uk

Proof, if needed that over-reliance on the global "free market" has been an unmitigated disaster.

The first thing the Government needs to do is to suspend all new licensing for North Sea fuel extraction until they can come up with a model that supports the British economy, rather than multi-nationals.

To be fair, the IMF frequently says this about the UK and then has to backtrack when proved wrong.

The answer to the oil and gas issue, and the above in fact, is for all democracies to realise they've been played by dictatorships. That the markets that are supposed to be facilitate society have been manipulated to strangle it, and that war has been silently (deliberately silently) declared against us.

Accepting that, that the rules have been ruined by malign players, the democratic governments should suspend the rules, take control of the means of production and reset trading oil and gas with each other.

The dictatorships will be outraged, and claim it shows that the free world makes rules up when it suits us. And use that to sow division. So what? They do that anyway.

We just need politicians with the clarity and balls to make it happen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am curious, if they only use their car a dozen times a year, what problem do you believe is being solved by taking that away from them?

I guess parking. However, this issue is totally solved by underground parking on apartment developments.

 

[yorksrob]

I am curious, if they only use their car a dozen times a year, what problem do you believe is being solved by taking that away from them?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jan 2023 ==


To be fair, the IMF frequently says this about the UK and then has to backtrack when proved wrong.

The answer to the oil and gas issue, and the above in fact, is for all democracies to realise they've been played by dictatorships. That the markets that are supposed to be facilitate society have been manipulated to strangle it, and that war has been silently (deliberately silently) declared against us.

Accepting that, that the rules have been ruined by malign players, the democratic governments should suspend the rules, take control of the means of production and reset trading oil and gas with each other.

The dictatorships will be outraged, and claim it shows that the free world makes rules up when it suits us. And use that to sow division. So what? They do that anyway.

We just need politicians with the clarity and balls to make it happen.

Indeed. The West must have enough resources between itself to make the transition to renewable/nuclear.

It's about time it used it decisively.

 

[ainsworth74]

Indeed. The West must have enough resources between itself to make the transition to renewable/nuclear.

It's about time it used it decisively.

Yes but that might reduce the profit margins of some key companies and result in some obscenely wealthy individuals seeing their fortunes grow slightly more slowly. Which is, as I'm sure you appreciate, wholly unacceptable.

 

[Magdalia]

Indeed. The West must have enough resources between itself to make the transition to renewable/nuclear.

Er, no.

More than half of global supply of microchips is made in Taiwan.

China has stitched up most of the supply of rare earths while the west has been obsessing about oil.

The first thing the Government needs to do is to suspend all new licensing for North Sea fuel extraction

That needs to happen for climate change reasons.

 

[yorksrob]

Er, no.

More than half of global supply of microchips is made in Taiwan.

China has stitched up most of the supply of rare earths while the west has been obsessing about oil.

That needs to happen for climate change reasons.

Taiwan is "the west" in political/economical terms, although given its location, some diversification needs to happen.

I'm not sure about the rare earths situation. The West does include a lot of continental territory, which makes me wonder whether it just hasn't discovered a lot of it yet.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jan 2023 ==

Yes but that might reduce the profit margins of some key companies and result in some obscenely wealthy individuals seeing their fortunes grow slightly more slowly. Which is, as I'm sure you appreciate, wholly unacceptable.

Indeed, why should the City and the 1% invest in the democracies futures when they can make a fast buck !

 

[DC1989]

I am curious, if they only use their car a dozen times a year, what problem do you believe is being solved by taking that away from them?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Jan 2023 ==


To be fair, the IMF frequently says this about the UK and then has to backtrack when proved wrong.

Indeed - its usually much worse that what they say!

 

[ainsworth74]

China has stitched up most of the supply of rare earths while the west has been obsessing about oil.

To be fair rare earths aren't that rare, it's more that China has done more than most to corner the market to the point that it hasn't been economic to invest in the infrastructure to extract and process them. That's the hurdle to be overcome. Sweden recently found a big chunk of them which it can exploit, I think Australia has similarly quite large deposits which have only recently started to be exploited. So I'm fairly laid back on access to rare earths as long as (and it's here I'm considerably less laid back) the relevant governments are willing to provide assistance to enable those resources to be exploited.

 

[ainsworth74]

Indeed, why should the City and the 1% invest in the democracies futures when they can make a fast buck !

I knew you'd get it!

 

[deltic]

Not sure the last 100 posts have anything to do with OP's question!

We spend far too much time discussing issues that are irrelevant to solving the big problems we face. More media coverage is given to whether Dominic Rabb threw tomatoes in his office or if Nadeem Zawi got fined by HMRC than why productivity has been so low for so long.

 

[nw1]

Everyone needs to have a few thousand saved up regardless of your age to pay for unexpected expenses. A lot of people retiring in their 50s have a net worth excluding housing of at least a quarter of a million.

£250,000, before property? Who are these people? Only very senior management and successful entrepreneurs would have that sort of money, presumably - which must be a very small percentage of the population.

 

[johncrossley]

£250,000, before property? Who are these people? Only very senior management and successful entrepreneurs would have that sort of money, presumably.

I was actually being conservative with that figure. We have been told consistently since the 90s that the state pension will either not exist or be worth very little when we retire and therefore you should make your own provision for retirement. People who have been investing a sensible amount of their salary since their 20s should have at least £250K in their funds/portfolios, particularly if they have been getting tax relief and employer contributions.

As it has turned out, despite being told we must save for our own retirement, the state pension has been protected with the triple lock, so the spendthrifts have got away with it anyway.