National Grid warns of possible blackouts

[Bald Rick]

It was 17.8GW, but yes, a record.

 

[Noddy]

It was 17.8GW, but yes, a record.

That’s quite a difference from iamkate data! Can you point me in the direction of the more accurate figures?

 

[Bald Rick]

That’s quite a difference from iamkate data! Can you point me in the direction of the more accurate figures?

my mistake, as I used past 24h, not the full day.

it was indeed 20GW, which smashes the previous record.

 

[Noddy]

my mistake, as I used past 24h, not the full day.
it was indeed 20GW, which smashes the previous record.

Ah fair enough, even better! It’s amazing that 20GW for a 30 min period was only passed for the first time in November and now two months later it’s for an entire 24 hour period!

 

[Bald Rick]

Ah fair enough, even better! It’s amazing that 20GW for a 30 min period was only passed for the first time in November and now two months later it’s for an entire 24 hour period!

yep - the wind conditions were ‘somewhat’ favourable this week, in fact they have been all year so far!

that record will go again before the year is out I would imagine, as Seagreen concludes commissioning and goes fully operational, and Dogger Bank A, Neart na Gaoithe and (hopefully) Viking start generating in the second half of the year.

 

[Russel]

So, are these blackouts happening then or not?

I'd hate for all that media fearmongering at the end of last year to go to waste...

 

[Lost property]

So, are these blackouts happening then or not?

I'd hate for all that media fearmongering at the end of last year to go to waste...

Well if they are, they've been cunningly disguised..

However, the "media fearmongering " was anything but. The projections were based on the usage that could reasonably be expected during cold periods and overall usage in a UK winter...so nothing remotely alarmist or "fearmongering "...only prudent warnings of the potential for outages to occur.

Enter that capricious and fickle lady, Mother Nature, who has decided this winter will, so far, be comparatively mild across the UK and mainland Europe.

 

[AM9]

So, are these blackouts happening then or not?

I'd hate for all that media fearmongering at the end of last year to go to waste...

No indication of sarcasm there so so you really think that power cuts are a good thing?

 

[SJL2020]

Neart na Gaoithe and (hopefully) Viking start generating in the second half of the year.

I was involved in the development work on NNG as far back as 2009/10; I doubt anyone at the time suspected it would take this long to deliver, but lessons were learned...

 

[Bald Rick]

I was involved in the development work on NNG as far back as 2009/10; I doubt anyone at the time suspected it would take this long to deliver, but lessons were learned...

When I read threads about how long it takes to plan and develop railway projects, I often think I might start a spoof thread moaning about “why does it take so long to build an offshore wind farm“. I mean it’s only a couple of big fans plonked in the seabed…

 

[AM9]

When I read threads about how long it takes to plan and develop railway projects, I often think I might start a spoof thread moaning about “why does it take so long to build an offshore wind farm“. I mean it’s only a couple of big fans in the seabed…

... and when they start back on land based wind farms, it will be the squabbling with NIMBYs and other "my environment is more important than the global environment" types that gobble up most of the time from initial funding to actually feeding the grid.

 

[telstarbox]

Gridwatch shows 56% renewables at the moment (very windy and slightly sunny outside my window) - is that as high as it can get or will that push higher with stronger solar in summer months?

 

[Bald Rick]

Gridwatch shows 56% renewables at the moment (very windy and slightly sunny outside my window) - is that as high as it can get or will that push higher with stronger solar in summer months?

The record for instantaneous renewables % is 26 June last year, when there was a period that had 72.8% of our electricity generated by wind, solar, and hydro (very little of the last).

The full day record was 28 March 2021, when over the whole day 66.3% of power was generated by renewables.

If we have a windy sunny day anytime from April - August this year, both records will go.

 

[Russel]

Well if they are, they've been cunningly disguised..

However, the "media fearmongering " was anything but. The projections were based on the usage that could reasonably be expected during cold periods and overall usage in a UK winter...so nothing remotely alarmist or "fearmongering "...only prudent warnings of the potential for outages to occur.

Enter that capricious and fickle lady, Mother Nature, who has decided this winter will, so far, be comparatively mild across the UK and mainland Europe.

No indication of sarcasm there so so you really think that power cuts are a good thing?

Oh please, every autumn we see the same warnings, they were just a lot more hyped up this year.

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair, the warnings of blackouts were always presented as a worse case scenario.

 

[Russel]

To be fair, the warnings of blackouts were always presented as a worse case scenario.

Yes, but parroted by the media as an almost certainty to happen.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes, but parroted by the media as an almost certainty to happen.

Yes, well that's the media for you !

 

[AM9]

Yes, but parroted by the media as an almost certainty to happen.

Maybe the media should have played them down so that they could have a scoop when they happen. Seriously, most adults take these matters in their stride.

 

[najaB]

Yes, but parroted by the media as an almost certainty to happen.

Citation needed.

Every article I read said that they would only be likely in the event of a particularly cold winter.

 

[HSTEd]

Blackouts have been put off by unseasonably warm weather, ultimately.

 

[AM9]

Blackouts have been put off by unseasonably warm weather, ultimately.

Which although convenient with the current CoL and fuel supply issues, is really quite worrying in the more serious area of global climate change.

 

[yorksrob]

Which although convenient with the current CoL and fuel supply issues, is really quite worrying in the more serious area of global climate change.

It's a let-off. An opportunity to prepare for climate change and disengagement from untrustworthy countries.

 

[DelayRepay]

Citation needed.

Every article I read said that they would only be likely in the event of a particularly cold winter.

I agree - the reports said I saw said they were a possibility in certain circumstances. I don't think they over-hyped the situation.

Personally I made some sensible plans, mainly making sure I had torches, a battery powered radio and spare batteries in an accessible place. Other than that I've carried on as normal, and I would expect everyone else to have done the same.

Worth remembering we did have a particularly cold few days in December, and we're not through the winter yet. Whilst things are looking a bit more positive we could still see issues if the weather takes a turn for the worse.

 

[nw1]

Blackouts have been put off by unseasonably warm weather, ultimately.

Or just a lack of much in the way of prolonged unseasonably cold weather.

If the weather had been bang-on average, I doubt they would have happened either. And I think, next week certainly, it's getting colder though not severe, but I doubt it will be bad enough to trigger blackouts.

Remember we had that 10-day cold spell in December during the days of the earliest sunsets, and also in the lead up to Christmas, so quite possibly the time of heaviest demand through the whole winter - and nothing happened. Unless we get a severe spell in February, I think we're probably safe now.

 

[DelayRepay]

Remember we had that 10-day cold spell in December during the days of the earliest sunsets, and also in the lead up to Christmas, so quite possibly the time of heaviest demand through the whole winter - and nothing happened. Unless we get a severe spell in February, I think we're probably safe now.

I agree we're probably safe, but remember that the 'Beast from the East' happened in late February so we're not completely safe yet. Still, I don't regret spending a few quid on spare batteries just in case.

 

[Bald Rick]

Reasonable to assume we’re safe for this winter.

The macro issue was the overall level of gas reserves in Europe. The mild winter means that is now not a problem, for this winter.

I read somewhere this week that the windy spell here between 27 Dec and 9 Jan has saved us (the taxpayer) the equivalent of £2bn worth of gas for electricity generation.

 

[DelayRepay]

Reasonable to assume we’re safe for this winter.

The macro issue was the overall level of gas reserves in Europe. The mild winter means that is now not a problem, for this winter.

I read somewhere this week that the windy spell here between 27 Dec and 9 Jan has saved us (the taxpayer) the equivalent of £2bn worth of gas for electricity generation.

Do you know how energy use this winter compares to last? I guess different temperatures will make direct comparisons difficult, but I am interested in whether people are using less energy (whether that be to save money or due to concern about shortages, or other reasons)?

 

[yorksrob]

Reasonable to assume we’re safe for this winter.

The macro issue was the overall level of gas reserves in Europe. The mild winter means that is now not a problem, for this winter.

I read somewhere this week that the windy spell here between 27 Dec and 9 Jan has saved us (the taxpayer) the equivalent of £2bn worth of gas for electricity generation.

A good let-off.

Ourselves and Europe need to spend the next year learning how not to depend on ones enemies.

 

[Annetts key]

Some studies have suggested that, with respect to power cycling vs continuous output, that the fuel cost of nuclear may be effectively negative.

"Two shifting" nuclear plant and powering it down or reducing output can cause significant thermal and fatigue stresses on the reactor system and the balance of plant. This has implications for maintenance and inspection requirements.
As a result it may be cheaper to just run the reactor flat out regardless, even if the electricity price falls to zero (or even marginally below zero).

This is especially true as a shut down reactor (that does not restart almost immediately) may fall into a 'xenon pit' and not be able to restart for 36 hours or so. That might leave you unable to generate in a forthcoming peak demand period.

As I understand it, the nuclear power stations in the U.K. run at or near their maximum safe output all the time, unless they have to go off-line for maintenance, or due to an equipment fault or safety issue.

With our current mix of energy sources for electricity generation, and with the number of older generation nuclear power stations gradually being decommissioned, there is not likely to be a reason to change this anytime soon.

So, are these blackouts happening then or not?

I'd hate for all that media fearmongering at the end of last year to go to waste...

Stamps feet with an angry look on his face, one was promised power cuts! Where are they? How is one supposed to conduct a real life test of the standby power systems that one has put in place?…

In all seriousness, we had a similar warning for the winter of 2021/2022 and there were no national power cuts. This year, the government arranged for some coal power stations to remain available rather than being decommissioned. And the fear was that we could have had calm very cold weather with a lack of sufficient gas.

To be fair, two European countries have suffered power cuts - Moldova and Ukraine. But for very different reasons.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you know how energy use this winter compares to last? I guess different temperatures will make direct comparisons difficult, but I am interested in whether people are using less energy (whether that be to save money or due to concern about shortages, or other reasons)?

I’ve seen some reports that energy use in a Germany is significantly down, because of Government led public campaigns. We haven’t had that here.

A good let-off.

Ourselves and Europe need to spend the next year learning how not to depend on ones enemies.

Safe to say that Governments across Europe have been doing thus for over a year now.