UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[43066]

The Intercity trains are pretty busy throughout the day really, the 5 car 222s are a pain in the proverbial.

Now that the IC services have been speeded up, it would be interesting to know to what extent EMR had cannibalised passengers from the WCML/ECML who would previously have travelled to London from Crewe or Grantham rather than (respectively) Sheffield or Notts.

 

[tbtc]

if the long distance TOCs on the East Coast and Midland lines can recover their passenger numbers when running a relatively reliable service, it follows that long distance passenger numbers on XC and Avanti are being suppressed by the current reduced/chronically unreliable services on both?

The EMR “recovery” seems to be mainly about the (longer) half hourly EMUs replacing the hourly DMUs on Corby services (and therefore being a lot more attractive to Bedford/ Luton/ Airport passengers than the slower Thameslink services)

So really this seems to boil down to “LNER are doing better than before, Avanti/ XC/ TPE are doing worse than before… and people are complaining about Avanti/ XC/ TPE rather than accepting that LNER seems to be a relative outlier”

We could look at what LNER have done differently (maybe, despite thousands of complaints on the Forum about IET seats/ slopes/ lights etc, the 800/801s are actually popular with ordinary people… Maybe the single leg pricing isn’t putting too many people off… Maybe leisure-based places like York/ Leeds remain popular in an environment where horse racing/ stag nights are still essential journeys but Monday morning commutes aren’t) and see what lessons Avanti etc could learn…

(how come LNER have staffing problems yet still gain passengers ? Is part of the LNER improvement in passenger numbers because they have cut some fares to compete with Lumo since they aren’t worrying about profits?)…

…but there doesn’t seem to be an appetite for that, just continually pointing out that LNER are doing well and bemoaning the fact that others aren’t matching this “national” trend of long distance leisure passengers

 

[Killingworth]

Northern Rail had their 3rd highest revenue week ever recently.
As reported by Jen Williams - https://twitter.com/JenWilliams_FT/status/1604163614541504512?t=R_Q5V-Yxpzu3g7sKGvrgJA&s=19

Exactly. Hope Valley revenue on Northern may be up to 125% of pre-Covid. A lot of that will have been picked up from TPE in particular. Their higher fares and poor current reliabilty is leaving the slower services the best choice for increasing numbers - which means the aggregated net revenue for the line over all 3 operators will be markedly down.

First Lumo are offering a cheaper option than LNER. Northern offer a cheaper option than First TPE. That's competition.

 

[Watershed]

I'll bear the patronising "enthusiasts" sneer in mind when I'm working on the May 2023 timetable next week, thanks

Indeed. It's funny how some people accuse others of holding a blinkered mindset when they're guilty of the same sin themselves!

Also if the long distance TOCs on the East Coast and Midland lines can recover their passenger numbers when running a relatively reliable service, it follows that long distance passenger numbers on XC and Avanti are being suppressed by the current reduced/chronically unreliable services on both?

Precisely. XC, TPE and Avanti all have much depressed passenger figures (both absolute volumes and passenger-km) compared to other comparable operators. The common factor? Unreliability and severely reduced timetables. If it were an industry-wide phenomenon you'd also expect to see the likes of LNER, GWR, Northern etc. reporting comparable lower figures.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Northern Rail had their 3rd highest revenue week ever recently.
As reported by Jen Williams - https://twitter.com/JenWilliams_FT/status/1604163614541504512?t=R_Q5V-Yxpzu3g7sKGvrgJA&s=19

More significantly that links to FT article shining a light on DfT targeting significant cutbacks on services to save money

Budget cuts of more than 10 per cent were being discussed, although the exact amount may differ from company to company and some operators may not face such steep reductions, two people said.

Train company executives said that fewer train services were an inevitable consequence of the budgets being drawn up.

“These are very, very demanding cost reductions we fear will have an impact on the railway and on passenger experience,” another said.

Train operators are preparing their budgets for the financial year beginning in April 2023 under instruction from the DfT, which assumed all cost and revenue risk from the industry when Covid led to a near instant collapse in passenger numbers in March 2020.



Ministers have long said the industry must reform to save money and adapt to changing travel patterns, having spent billions keeping trains running during the pandemic.

But Louise Haigh, shadow transport secretary, said the government needed to “come clean” on its plans and “stop dodging accountability” for the problems on the railways.

“Rail passengers across the country have been forced to rely on a failing service thanks to years of Tory broken promises on infrastructure and an indefensible refusal to hold failing private operators to account,” she said.

“The veil of secrecy over steep cuts to already shockingly poor services is deeply troubling.”

The railway’s shattered finances have also contributed to the most significant industrial unrest in a generation, as unions stage waves of strike action in disputes over pay rises and changes to working practices.

With budgets so tight, the government has said major pay rises must be tied to modernisation, sparking a clash with the RMT union.

The Department for Transport said: “Due to commercial confidentiality, we cannot comment on ongoing budget discussions. We continue to ensure all rail operators deliver services that better meet post pandemic demand, in the most cost effective way.”

 

[YorkshireBear]

More significantly that links to FT article shining a light on DfT targeting significant cutbacks on services to save money

It will be interesting to see how many of the rumoured cuts are undertaken as some would be incredibly unpalatable.

 

[Peterthegreat]

It will be interesting to see how many of the rumoured cuts are undertaken as some would be incredibly unpalatable.

The cynic in me wonders if the lack of trains in some parts of the country on non-strike days is deliberate policy from the DfT.

 

[43074]

The EMR “recovery” seems to be mainly about the (longer) half hourly EMUs replacing the hourly DMUs on Corby services (and therefore being a lot more attractive to Bedford/ Luton/ Airport passengers than the slower Thameslink services)

EMR Intercity services are busy too though, anecdotally the 0735 Leicester to London (10 car 222) is typically loading to around 75% departing Leicester, whereas pre COVID the equivalent HST service which then filled up with commuters from Kettering & Wellingborough loaded to no more than 50% leaving Leicester.

Off peak the 5-car 222s are more often than not rammed - I'm sure you'll argue a 5 car 222 doesn't mean much blah blah blah, but if you get out from behind your keyboard and go and travel on the trains you'll find why I'm sceptical of the EMR Connect/Thameslink abstraction theory as an explanation for their recovery alone.

So really this seems to boil down to “LNER are doing better than before, Avanti/ XC/ TPE are doing worse than before… and people are complaining about Avanti/ XC/ TPE rather than accepting that LNER seems to be a relative outlier”

As has been pointed out the traincrew situation with Avanti/XC/TPE is substantially worse than it is on LNER, LNER is an outlier in that whilst perhaps there are a dozen cancellations a day, on Avanti and TPE the number of cancellations daily on the two combined is easily over a hundred. Why is this such a hard concept for you to accept?

 

[ChrisC]

EMR Intercity services are busy too though, anecdotally the 0735 Leicester to London (10 car 222) is typically loading to around 75% departing Leicester, whereas pre COVID the equivalent HST service which then filled up with commuters from Kettering & Wellingborough loaded to no more than 50% leaving Leicester.

Off peak the 5-car 222s are more often than not rammed - I'm sure you'll argue a 5 car 222 doesn't mean much blah blah blah, but if you get out from behind your keyboard and go and travel on the trains you'll find why I'm sceptical of the EMR Connect/Thameslink abstraction theory as an explanation for their recovery alone.

I agree that EMR Intercity services are very busy. EMR Regional services are also busier than some people here have been suggesting. The regional services were badly affected by the supposedly temporary timetables which were introduced during the covid lockdowns. Unfortunately, some services like Nottingham to Matlock and off peak Nottingham to Mansfield Woodhouse have still not returned and perhaps never will. However, 2 carriage 170 trains to Crewe are now much busier than they were when it was only a single 153 from Derby, with many through passengers from Nottingham. The Skegness line had a very busy summer and the routes from Lincoln are also busy. The Norwich to Liverpool route, when it runs and is not short formed, is as busy as ever.

 

[Killingworth]

I agree that EMR Intercity services are very busy. EMR Regional services are also busier than some people here have been suggesting. The regional services were badly affected by the supposedly temporary timetables which were introduced during the covid lockdowns. Unfortunately, some services like Nottingham to Matlock and off peak Nottingham to Mansfield Woodhouse have still not returned and perhaps never will. However, 2 carriage 170 trains to Crewe are now much busier than they were when it was only a single 153 from Derby, with many through passengers from Nottingham. The Skegness line had a very busy summer and the routes from Lincoln are also busy. The Norwich to Liverpool route, when it runs and is not short formed, is as busy as ever.

I suspect the Manchester-Sheffield leg of Liverpool - Norwich is loading well due to the unpredictable lack of TPE services.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I suspect the Manchester-Sheffield leg of Liverpool - Norwich is loading well due to the unpredictable lack of TPE services.

Actually the lack of TPE services is entirely predictable. Which ones are lacking though is more unpredictable

 

[Jozhua]

Exactly. Hope Valley revenue on Northern may be up to 125% of pre-Covid. A lot of that will have been picked up from TPE in particular. Their higher fares and poor current reliability is leaving the slower services the best choice for increasing numbers - which means the aggregated net revenue for the line over all 3 operators will be markedly down.

First Lumo are offering a cheaper option than LNER. Northern offer a cheaper option than First TPE. That's competition.

Reliability is vitally important. Northern have a bad reputation, but on corridors where congestion isn't too bad and there isn't a mingling of weird crewing schedules/diagrams, they actually run a pretty solid service. Nottingham - Leeds and Sheffield - Manchester I've always had a good experience on. The issue is that the two car 195s are just not going to cut it on many routes, although I do find them very comfortable. Perhaps some infill coach orders would be good to see, to create more 3-car sets and perhaps some fully walk through 4-cars. These would probably be quite cost effective, as the driving cabs are going to add a lot to the cost of the train, plus the expensive design work has already been done.

I've found the ridership on the Nottingham Trams has been really solid, the frequency is rather incredible! (Often wait no more than 3/4 minutes for a tram into town.) A lot of this goes to show if you run a reliable, frequent service, people will use it.

 

[SE%Traveller]

Is a plea for more trains out of the question!? About to take take the plunge and buy a season ticket but i'd be lying if i said there wasn't any resentment for shelling out £200 more for a ticket than when i last bought one when the Peak Services are as rammed as they ever were and the off peak is now 50% of what it was. As a rail enthusiast and an environmentalist it's very disheartening...

this from Thameslink paints a grim picture and it's similar on their other metro lines too

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Is a plea for more trains out of the question!? About to take take the plunge and buy a season ticket but i'd be lying if i said there wasn't any resentment for shelling out £200 more for a ticket than when i last bought one when the Peak Services are as rammed as they ever were and the off peak is now 50% of what it was. As a rail enthusiast and an environmentalist it's very disheartening...

this from Thameslink paints a grim picture and it's similar on their other metro lines too

If an operator has this clear a picture of loadings should be easy to target where extra capacity should be provided but of course they wont be allowed to as teh rest of the day trains will be under utilised. the industry needs to get smarter in matching capacity to where demand is even if that means messing around with service frequency to avoid more trains being needed.

 

[SE%Traveller]

It always struck me as odd that they linked 2 peak only "north" (Welwyn/ Luton) services with two "all day" south Services (Sevenoaks/ Orpington). I always try to be an optimist but in order to run more trains via Elephant U can't see round the need to remove all the conflicting moves on the approach...

 

[The Ham]

Precisely. XC, TPE and Avanti all have much depressed passenger figures (both absolute volumes and passenger-km) compared to other comparable operators. The common factor? Unreliability and severely reduced timetables. If it were an industry-wide phenomenon you'd also expect to see the likes of LNER, GWR, Northern etc. reporting comparable lower figures.

Unsurprisingly given that they are running between 60% and 65% of the services km that there were running pre Covid.

Whilst the likes of GWR are running 95% of services km.

There low rates of services by XC, TPE and Avanti (being longer distance TOC's) may mean that it's harder for other TOC's to get back to where they were because there's not the services to connect to.

Unfortunately it does appear that the biggest impact from those TOC's is likely to be felt in the North. Which makes a mockery of leveling up, when the government appear to be actively encouraging the strikes to continue by not going to the negotiating table.

Pre Covid £1bn of the £6bn in support for the railways was due to Network Rail debt, does National Highways (was Highways England) have the same requirement to cover their debt payments?

Those debts and other large NR costs mean that running every service which just about covers it's costs plus a bit is likely to result in less support from the government than if we tried cutting our way to a viable future. As unless we can cut NR costs (and running a few fewer trains isn't going to make much of a debt in that) the overall costs are likely to be broadly the same if not higher due to there just not being the passengers who are willing to use the railways due to poor reliability, poor frequency, etc.

Yes there maybe some places where cutting services would reduce TOC costs by more than the income. However there's currently likely to be a lot of services which could run and provide income to the government to cover a bit more off the NR costs. Do that enough and use and income may not be that far behind where they were.

Don't do that and the government will still be on the hook (even if every line closed in the UK) for £1bn of NR debt (and traffic congestion would be loads worse, so there'd have to be a significant spend on roads to cater for that - which would be impossible in London as we'd not have the land to provide the extra roads without impacting significantly on other properties).

 

[yorksrob]

I think that some posters are deluding themselves that lousy service has nothing whatsoever to do with the poor performance of some TOC's and that it's all due to some mystical change in peoples travel habits.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2022 ==

If passenger journeys are down by less than passenger km, then average journeys have got shorter

But even a decrease in passenger km on a longer distance TOC may still signal a better recovery on its long distance services on account of it operating longer distance services to begin with.

 

[stuu]

Pre Covid £1bn of the £6bn in support for the railways was due to Network Rail debt, does National Highways (was Highways England) have the same requirement to cover their debt payments?

National Highways has never used debt finance, at least not directly, so doesn't carry any on it's balance sheet.

It's irrelevant anyway, as the NR debts have to be paid, they are part of the national debt and have been for a number of years. What you really mean is that subsidy should increase to cover the debt, but the government could reasonably argue that it already does that with the increase in financial support

 

[yorksrob]

It's irrelevant anyway, as the NR debts have to be paid, they are part of the national debt and have been for a number of years. What you really mean is that subsidy should increase to cover the debt, but the government could reasonably argue that it already does that with the increase in financial support

It is, and as you say is part of the national debt.

Since NR ceased to be a non-public concern, it has not had the capacity to borrow more on the "magic credit card".

Perhaps now is the time to do what Barbra Castle did for BR and remove the debt from NR altogether.

 

[stuu]

It is, and as you say is part of the national debt.

Since NR ceased to be a non-public concern, it has not had the capacity to borrow more on the "magic credit card".

Perhaps now is the time to do what Barbra Castle did for BR and remove the debt from NR altogether.

That won't magically make more money available, it is only passed through NR for accounting reasons now.

I think you mean non-private (not that it ever was really)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It is, and as you say is part of the national debt.

Since NR ceased to be a non-public concern, it has not had the capacity to borrow more on the "magic credit card".

Perhaps now is the time to do what Barbra Castle did for BR and remove the debt from NR altogether.

NR is at least being insulated against the extra interest costs on the index linked debt they have which is just as well as that would have made things a whole magnitude worse

 

[yorksrob]

That won't magically make more money available, it is only passed through NR for accounting reasons now.

I think you mean non-private (not that it ever was really)

You're correct, I do.

I guess I was saying that it would move the debt somewhere else, so repayments wouldn't appear on the NR balance sheet.

 

[SussexSeagull]

I do think that is someone's job doesn't now require them to be in the office five day a week then it probably will stay that way and we can't start to try and work out the new normal.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think that some posters are deluding themselves that lousy service has nothing whatsoever to do with the poor performance of some TOC's and that it's all due to some mystical change in peoples travel habits.

I didn’t think anyone is suggesting that lousy service is nothing to do with reduced passenger / revenue numbers on some TOCs. That clearly is a factor.

However it is not the only factor.

It is simply not the case that peoples travel habits have not changed, because they very definitely have. Business travel is well under half what it was Pre covid - that alone is a billion pound gap each year. Commuting is also only a little more than half what it was, and that’s another £1.5bn gap. It is great that leisure has come back strongly, particularly on short distance and particularly in and to London, but it is only making up 20% of the shortfall of the other two. And, in fact, the leisure market is simply back on the growth line that was forecast Pre covid.

Even if Avanti, TPE and Cross Country were running perfect services, it’s not going to bring back the full trains in the peak full of high yield business and commuter passengers.

 

[30907]

If an operator has this clear a picture of loadings should be easy to target where extra capacity should be provided but of course they wont be allowed to as teh rest of the day trains will be under utilised. the industry needs to get smarter in matching capacity to where demand is even if that means messing around with service frequency to avoid more trains being needed.

This is on a line where 100% of the pre-covid TL peak service is running, where extra stops were introduced in May (or before?) on SE "fasts" to Victoria, and where an additional train via Lewisham has just been introduced.
I wonder why the Catford Loop is doing so well?

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is simply not the case that peoples travel habits have not changed, because they very definitely have. Business travel is well under half what it was Pre covid - that alone is a billion pound gap each year. Commuting is also only a little more than half what it was, and that’s another £1.5bn gap. It is great that leisure has come back strongly, particularly on short distance and particularly in and to London, but it is only making up 20% of the shortfall of the other two. And, in fact, the leisure market is simply back on the growth line that was forecast Pre covid.

Even if Avanti, TPE and Cross Country were running perfect services, it’s not going to bring back the full trains in the peak full of high yield business and commuter passengers.

Do you not think, though, that the way leisure travel has grown despite travel on TPE, Avanti and XC being such utter purgatory (and Avanti actively turning away some custom with that "sold out" tripe) suggests that if we had a more 2018-like quality of service, leisure growth could massively surpass predictions?

It seems to me quite miraculous that Avanti's passenger loadings are at 70% or thereabouts of pre-COVID, and not at about 10%, given how utterly dire the service is.

 

[Stephen42]

This is on a line where 100% of the pre-covid TL peak service is running, where extra stops were introduced in May (or before?) on SE "fasts" to Victoria, and where an additional train via Lewisham has just been introduced.
I wonder why the Catford Loop is doing so well?

It's shorter distance commuting and Denmark Hill has the hospitals which probably helps. The loading data is also questionable, Ravensbourne and Beckenham Hill aren't the busiest of stations so them taking a 8-car class 700 from few seats available to even standing space limited seems unlikely to me.

 

[SE%Traveller]

This is on a line where 100% of the pre-covid TL peak service is running, where extra stops were introduced in May (or before?) on SE "fasts" to Victoria,

IIRC these were introduced as PiXC busters and have been around for a while now, think it was back in 2016/17 they were introduced. TBH as they're timed to leave Bromley South 7 mins after the Welwyn Stopper they've got plenty of time to call!

 

[yorksrob]

I didn’t think anyone is suggesting that lousy service is nothing to do with reduced passenger / revenue numbers on some TOCs. That clearly is a factor.

However it is not the only factor.

It is simply not the case that peoples travel habits have not changed, because they very definitely have. Business travel is well under half what it was Pre covid - that alone is a billion pound gap each year. Commuting is also only a little more than half what it was, and that’s another £1.5bn gap. It is great that leisure has come back strongly, particularly on short distance and particularly in and to London, but it is only making up 20% of the shortfall of the other two. And, in fact, the leisure market is simply back on the growth line that was forecast Pre covid.

Even if Avanti, TPE and Cross Country were running perfect services, it’s not going to bring back the full trains in the peak full of high yield business and commuter passengers.

Well, we did start off on this exchange discussing long distance leisure - and I take your point that the long distance business and commuting has taken a hit.

However, that gap would be that much smaller if all of the longer distance TOC's - all TOC's indeed, were performing somewhere near to how they should be and benefiting from the resurgence in long distance leisure travel that is a thing.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you not think, though, that the way leisure travel has grown despite travel on TPE, Avanti and XC being such utter purgatory (and Avanti actively turning away some custom with that "sold out" tripe) suggests that if we had a more 2018-like quality of service, leisure growth could massively surpass predictions?

Not massively, no, although there would be a small effect, maybe a couple of %. As you note later, the loadings haven’t fallen that much on Avanti (but see below). There’s also some evidence that there has been a not insignificant number of passengers transferring across to EMR and LNER from Avanti where that is feasible, eg Scotland or people living mid-Pennines; this is unquestionably some of the reason why EMR and LNER are doing better. In pure passenger terms the numbers ‘lost’ by Avanti and TPE are relatively small compared to the size of the short distance leisure market to London, for example, so even if they were running a perfect service, the passenger numbers for the whole leisure market would be slightly bigger, but not massively so.

It seems to me quite miraculous that Avanti's passenger loadings are at 70% or thereabouts of pre-COVID, and not at about 10%, given how utterly dire the service is.

Don’t forget those numbers are July - Sept, before the Avanti issues really got going.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2022 ==

However, that gap would be that much smaller if all of the longer distance TOC's - all TOC's indeed, were performing somewhere near to how they should be and benefiting from the resurgence in long distance leisure travel that is a thing

No doubt it would be better, but the data is very clear that it is short distance leisure travel that is what is driving the leisure ’resurgence’, not long distance.