UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Nicholas Lewis]

Worth noting that EMR have 'cannibalised' a lot of passengers from Thameslink with the new semifast Corby service. With Thameslink services not having been reduced to account for this, GTR's ratio of train-km to passenger journeys is lower than it would otherwise be.

Indeed and a clear example of where GTR should be curtailing the Gatwick-Bedford semi fasts to Luton but its all too difficult yet this is the sort of self help the industry should be offering to DfT even if the lead time is several timetable iterations to achieve.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Beyond those two stand out performers, the next best performing TOCs appear to be Merseyrail and London Overground. Good news, but this doesn’t tie in with the repeated claims on here that commuting has gone down hugely whilst the big increases have been in leisure services to scenic branch lines - you’d expect these two “urban” franchises to be struggling but instead they are outperforming the average TOC

I think it depends what you mean by commuting. Blue collar commuting hasn't gone down, because you can't service a car or build a wall from home. White collar long distance London commuting, long the South East railway's bread and butter, very much has. You'll see far more blue collar commuting on Merseyrail and LO than white collar because of the demographic of those areas.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2022 ==

Indeed and a clear example of where GTR should be curtailing the Gatwick-Bedford semi fasts to Luton but its all too difficult yet this is the sort of self help the industry should be offering to DfT even if the lead time is several timetable iterations to achieve.

Thameslink needs a massive tidy up to a consistent hourly pattern with a few peak extras as LNR have done.

 

[Taunton]

Notably road peak hour traffic is back to 100%, it seems that rail commuting is a "Distress Purchase" that only absorbs the overflow when road is impractical. I know that's a bit of a generalism, and Central London likely an exception due to the costs of having a car there, but believe it is broadly true. Those who are currently making rail commuting a nuisance/impractical please take note.

The percentage usage figures are all very well, but what is properly meaningful is the actual cash revenue coming in, because the usage figures can be hiding some significant change in the total income the railway receives.

 

[squizzler]

I don’t think I trust anyone who looks at this middle of data and claim that they can tell a clear pattern (one which, coincidently, agrees with all of their existing assumptions about the railway!)

I agree a little scepticism can be healthy; rather than take our word for it, why not plot it in an excel graph and see what trend line your computer gives?

 

[yorksrob]

I don’t think I trust anyone who looks at this middle of data and claim that they can tell a clear pattern (one which, coincidently, agrees with all of their existing assumptions about the railway!)

Firstly, I agree that we should ignore GC/ HT, given the small nature of the operations, can probably ignore Caledonian Sleeper and Heathrow Express too for similar reasons (although I guess credit to Heathrow Express for “only” losing 30% of passengers given the changes to flights etc)

LNER have done well for passengers, despite people on here complaining about how the single leg pricing is too expensive (albeit a ride that’s easy to get round, given the ability to buy a ticket for one stop further)

EMR have done well for passengers despite people on here complaining about the fact that some of their Turbostars have different coloured seats and the “Miles” mascot is the worst thing to happen to the railway, and the premature scrapping of trains in their fifth decade makes long distance travel to St Pancras unattractive (hey, maybe they are doing a good job and average passengers aren’t turned off by purple mascots or different coloured seats and maybe even don’t mind the occasional 180 instead of a train from the 1970s?)

Beyond those two stand out performers, the next best performing TOCs appear to be Merseyrail and London Overground. Good news, but this doesn’t tie in with the repeated claims on here that commuting has gone down hugely whilst the big increases have been in leisure services to scenic branch lines - you’d expect these two “urban” franchises to be struggling but instead they are outperforming the average TOC

There’s no way of knowing which of the other dots belong to who, but you’d expect to see a TOC like GWR doing better than Merseyrail/ London Overground if the Forum’s assumptions about leisure travel were correct. Instead, it seems like reliable simple networks are good and people trust what they know works

But constantly highlighting the fact that LNER are back above 2019 levels ignores the fact that they are a bit of an outlier and the majority of the railway has a long way to climb back

It's not just that though.

As has been pointed out, TPE, Avanti and XC should be riding the leisure wave but they're underperforming everyone.

 

[tbtc]

As has been pointed out, TPE, Avanti and XC should be riding the leisure wave but they're underperforming everyone.

What “leisure wave” though?

Have you assumed that there ought to be a leisure boom, because that reinforces the kind of railway that you’d like there to be, and are now complaining that three of the main “leisure” TOCs are somehow “underperforming” (whilst London Overground and Merseyrail are two of the top four TOCs)

I suppose that, if you repeat a lie often enough, eventually you start to believe it yourself

I think it depends what you mean by commuting. Blue collar commuting hasn't gone down, because you can't service a car or build a wall from home. White collar long distance London commuting, long the South East railway's bread and butter, very much has. You'll see far more blue collar commuting on Merseyrail and LO than white collar because of the demographic of those areas.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2022 ==



Thameslink needs a massive tidy up to a consistent hourly pattern with a few peak extras as LNR have done.

I agree with both points (I’ve ranted before about how Thameslink should be much simpler)

I just thought that LO and Merseyrail doing relatively week was worth mentioning because a number of people on here are so keen to believe a narrative of “commuter lines are struggling but there’s a huge boom in leisure travel/ branch lines” (since that ties into their ideal railway)

The percentage usage figures are all very well, but what is properly meaningful is the actual cash revenue coming in, because the usage figures can be hiding some significant change in the total income the railway receives

Agreed

 

[yorksrob]

What “leisure wave” though?

Have you assumed that there ought to be a leisure boom, because that reinforces the kind of railway that you’d like there to be, and are now complaining that three of the main “leisure” TOCs are somehow “underperforming” (whilst London Overground and Merseyrail are two of the top four TOCs)

I suppose that, if you repeat a lie often enough, eventually you start to believe it yourself



I agree with both points (I’ve ranted before about how Thameslink should be much simpler)

I just thought that LO and Merseyrail doing relatively week was worth mentioning because a number of people on here are so keen to believe a narrative of “commuter lines are struggling but there’s a huge boom in leisure travel/ branch lines” (since that ties into their ideal railway)



Agreed

There has been a leisure boom. The services rebounding the most have been longer distance off peak ones which are primarily leisure.

 

[Watershed]

LNER have done well for passengers, despite people on here complaining about how the single leg pricing is too expensive (albeit a ride that’s easy to get round, given the ability to buy a ticket for one stop further)

The problem with single leg pricing isn't really that it's too expensive (that accusation could more fairly be levelled against Avanti's half-hearted "single leg" pricing which is actually 70% pricing). Rather, it's that there are no half-price Off-Peak Singles, only Super Off-Peak Singles - this clearly shows that the DfT (through LNER) intend to force more people onto Anytime tickets (or rather, Advances which aren't constrained by the cheaper Super Off-Peak prices).

There are other issues too, such as the loss of the ability to break your journey overnight on the return leg. But unfortunately that is a niche pursuit in the grand scheme of things, and so whilst it's very useful to clued-up passengers, the benefit for revenue protection (preventing people from reusing return portions) is going to outweigh that.

EMR have done well for passengers despite people on here complaining about the fact that some of their Turbostars have different coloured seats and the “Miles” mascot is the worst thing to happen to the railway, and the premature scrapping of trains in their fifth decade makes long distance travel to St Pancras unattractive (hey, maybe they are doing a good job and average passengers aren’t turned off by purple mascots or different coloured seats and maybe even don’t mind the occasional 180 instead of a train from the 1970s?)

As stated previously by others, a good proportion of EMR's "strong" recovery is really just cannibalisation of GTR passengers on the Bedford-London route. So really no different to Elizabeth Line having far more passengers than in 2019... no surprise when completely new services have been introduced since then!

EMR's Regional operation is "small change" in comparison to their Intercity and Connect operation - so regardless of how much people do or don't like the seats or stock, it's not going to make a big impact on their passenger numbers.

Beyond those two stand out performers, the next best performing TOCs appear to be Merseyrail and London Overground. Good news, but this doesn’t tie in with the repeated claims on here that commuting has gone down hugely whilst the big increases have been in leisure services to scenic branch lines - you’d expect these two “urban” franchises to be struggling but instead they are outperforming the average TOC

It has long been known that the reduction in commuting has primarily been over longer distances. These are the kinds of commutes that are typically done by white-collar workers, many of whom are now allowed to work from home. Naturally, that means that metro operators such as Merseyrail and London Overground are going to be less heavily affected by the reduction in commuting.

It is the likes of WMT, GA, SE, SWR etc. which are suffering much more - their "cash cows" (season ticket holders from further afield) have largely disappeared. They would be posting much worse figures if it weren't for the recovery in leisure travel.

What “leisure wave” though?

Have you assumed that there ought to be a leisure boom, because that reinforces the kind of railway that you’d like there to be, and are now complaining that three of the main “leisure” TOCs are somehow “underperforming” (whilst London Overground and Merseyrail are two of the top four TOCs)

I suppose that, if you repeat a lie often enough, eventually you start to believe it yourself

I don't know why you insist on being so contrarian! There is no doubt that leisure has recovered the strongest of all markets. Nationwide, leisure demand averages around 110% of pre-Covid levels; commuting is nearer 50% and business is around 30%. There are local variances (as mentioned above - short distance commuter levels are much higher than long distance ones) but that is the broad picture. These kinds of figures have been confirmed by countless sources.

 

[43074]

What “leisure wave” though?

Have you assumed that there ought to be a leisure boom, because that reinforces the kind of railway that you’d like there to be, and are now complaining that three of the main “leisure” TOCs are somehow “underperforming” (whilst London Overground and Merseyrail are two of the top four TOCs)

I suppose that, if you repeat a lie often enough, eventually you start to believe it yourself

Leisure travel is around 115% of pre COVID, and if you look at the station usage stats from last year many of the stations which saw an increase in usage compared to 2019 are in areas where leisure traffic is an important part of the demand (Cornish main line, Hope Valley etc). The 'problem' depending on how you look at it is that many of these people are not travelling on full fare tickets so total revenue is still well down.

Incidentally, and unrelated, another station with an increase compared to 2019 was Kettering, which benefitted from the fast EMR Intercity services facilitated by EMR Connect so I'm not sure all of EMRs recovery can be pinned on abstraction from Thameslink.

 

[baz962]

I think it depends what you mean by commuting. Blue collar commuting hasn't gone down, because you can't service a car or build a wall from home. White collar long distance London commuting, long the South East railway's bread and butter, very much has. You'll see far more blue collar commuting on Merseyrail and LO than white collar because of the demographic of those areas.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Dec 2022 ==



Thameslink needs a massive tidy up to a consistent hourly pattern with a few peak extras as LNR have done.

Almost certainly correct about London Overground. As an ex LO driver, most of the customers I used to see in the commuting times were builders and hospital staff and school children etc. Builders and hospital staff can't obviously work from home.

 

[squizzler]

Have you assumed that there ought to be a leisure boom, because that reinforces the kind of railway that you’d like there to be, and are now complaining that three of the main “leisure” TOCs are somehow “underperforming” (whilst London Overground and Merseyrail are two of the top four TOCs)

I suppose that, if you repeat a lie often enough, eventually you start to believe it yourself

Leisure travel is around 115% of pre COVID, and if you look at the station usage stats from last year many of the stations which saw an increase in usage compared to 2019 are in areas where leisure traffic is an important part of the demand (Cornish main line, Hope Valley etc). The 'problem' depending on how you look at it is that many of these people are not travelling on full fare tickets so total revenue is still well down.

Yes. The industry press has been consistent that the rebound of leisure traffic is driving passenger recovery overall. Are the professional reporters mere propagandists selling us a distorted truth?

From where I am sitting it is those whose rail atlases are covered in tip-ex, not crayon, who are the more detached from reality these days.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

I think fundamentally you need to try and compare average seat occupancy like they do in aircraft, not so easy on trains as they have multiple stops.

The million dollar question throughout this thread is trying to work out if reduced timetables are suppressing demand or demand is suppressing service frequency. Not easy to answer as a 4 times an hour shuttle will attract more passengers than an hourly service just by being more convenient.

 

[Dr Hoo]

I wish that I could be a bit more optimistic about the 'leisure wave' and its likely durability. This is not just about rail travel. Here in the Peak District - a national park within quite easy reach of large urban populations - it isn't clear that there is much money sloshing around. Plenty of pubs and cafes seem to have closed during this year (i.e. not directly due to covid).

People can obviously come to Edale and Bamford and enjoy a free walk, etc., and bring a picnic but I'm as yet unconvinced that this is likely to drive the economy into a sustainable future.

On the Hope Valley line we now largely have Class 195s and the little Pacers are gone. And quite a few people using Northern's trains have been refugees from limited Transpennine (and to some extent EMR) services. So the trains might seem busy. Some regular posters can no doubt find services that are "full and standing" but I am far from convinced that we're on our way to the Sunlit Uplands of the Kinder Plateau or anywhere else.

 

[Kite159]

.

I wish that I could be a bit more optimistic about the 'leisure wave' and its likely durability. This is not just about rail travel. Here in the Peak District - a national park within quite easy reach of large urban populations - it isn't clear that there is much money sloshing around. Plenty of pubs and cafes seem to have closed during this year (i.e. not directly due to covid).

People can obviously come to Edale and Bamford and enjoy a free walk, etc., and bring a picnic but I'm as yet unconvinced that this is likely to drive the economy into a sustainable future.

On the Hope Valley line we now largely have Class 195s and the little Pacers are gone. And quite a few people using Northern's trains have been refugees from limited Transpennine (and to some extent EMR) services. So the trains might seem busy. Some regular posters can no doubt find services that are "full and standing" but I am far from convinced that we're on our way to the Sunlit Uplands of the Kinder Plateau or anywhere else.

And how many passengers have tried using the train from Edale to return to Manchester/Sheffield after a day out only to find themselves unable to board due to the train being full of passengers going end up end on cheap £5 advances

 

[yorksrob]

I wish that I could be a bit more optimistic about the 'leisure wave' and its likely durability. This is not just about rail travel. Here in the Peak District - a national park within quite easy reach of large urban populations - it isn't clear that there is much money sloshing around. Plenty of pubs and cafes seem to have closed during this year (i.e. not directly due to covid).

People can obviously come to Edale and Bamford and enjoy a free walk, etc., and bring a picnic but I'm as yet unconvinced that this is likely to drive the economy into a sustainable future.

On the Hope Valley line we now largely have Class 195s and the little Pacers are gone. And quite a few people using Northern's trains have been refugees from limited Transpennine (and to some extent EMR) services. So the trains might seem busy. Some regular posters can no doubt find services that are "full and standing" but I am far from convinced that we're on our way to the Sunlit Uplands of the Kinder Plateau or anywhere else.

That's a very pertinent point for the interest rate thread. Economists tell us that we need higher interest rates because there's too much money around apparently. As you say, it's not immediately apparent where it is.

In my view, in the current economic climate, Government should be using the railways, and public transport in general, as an enabler to allow people to go about their business and contribute to the wider economy more cost effectively. That would involve holding fares down, rather than hiking them up at every opportunity though.

 

[PeteFLT]

Indeed and a clear example of where GTR should be curtailing the Gatwick-Bedford semi fasts to Luton but its all too difficult yet this is the sort of self help the industry should be offering to DfT even if the lead time is several timetable iterations to achieve.

And screw those who live in Leagrave, Harlington and Flitwick? Thameslink North of STP forgets about anyone North of Luton (or St Albans during disruption) enough without timetabling it to!

 

[Ken H]

I wish that I could be a bit more optimistic about the 'leisure wave' and its likely durability. This is not just about rail travel. Here in the Peak District - a national park within quite easy reach of large urban populations - it isn't clear that there is much money sloshing around. Plenty of pubs and cafes seem to have closed during this year (i.e. not directly due to covid).

People can obviously come to Edale and Bamford and enjoy a free walk, etc., and bring a picnic but I'm as yet unconvinced that this is likely to drive the economy into a sustainable future.

On the Hope Valley line we now largely have Class 195s and the little Pacers are gone. And quite a few people using Northern's trains have been refugees from limited Transpennine (and to some extent EMR) services. So the trains might seem busy. Some regular posters can no doubt find services that are "full and standing" but I am far from convinced that we're on our way to the Sunlit Uplands of the Kinder Plateau or anywhere else.

I think hospitality is struggling because of loans taken out during covid under the guarantee scheme. No affordability checks so now the repayments are simply killing the businesses.

 

[tbtc]

I wish that I could be a bit more optimistic about the 'leisure wave' and its likely durability. This is not just about rail travel. Here in the Peak District - a national park within quite easy reach of large urban populations - it isn't clear that there is much money sloshing around. Plenty of pubs and cafes seem to have closed during this year (i.e. not directly due to covid).

People can obviously come to Edale and Bamford and enjoy a free walk, etc., and bring a picnic but I'm as yet unconvinced that this is likely to drive the economy into a sustainable future.

On the Hope Valley line we now largely have Class 195s and the little Pacers are gone. And quite a few people using Northern's trains have been refugees from limited Transpennine (and to some extent EMR) services. So the trains might seem busy. Some regular posters can no doubt find services that are "full and standing" but I am far from convinced that we're on our way to the Sunlit Uplands of the Kinder Plateau or anywhere else.

I agree

I think that the big increase at Grindleford suggests that more ordinary passengers are switched on to the Derbyshire Wayfarer “trick” of splitting tickets… the atrocious TPE performance has pushed a lot more people onto the Northern services (the stopper leaves Sheffield about three minutes after the TPE service was meant to, so it’s natural that this is the train that TPE passengers gravitate to rather than waiting half an hour for the EMR service)… the modern 46m 195s are much more attractive than the BR-era 30m 142s… Plus the cheap tickets the stopper attract more passengers (now that Northern have more seats to flog)… all of which makes the Northern service look busier but is overall revenue on line up or is it just canibalised? And, as you say, are the walkers contributing much to the economy with their thermoses? Passengers are welcome but some contribute more to the economy than others, and if we are arguing for more subsidies then we need to show how essential the railway is to jobs/ economy etc

(There’s also the problem that a route like the Hope Valley stopper is tough to plan for… will a 46m DMU be half empty on a rainy day but horribly busy when hundreds of people try to cram their bikes on board during the sunny periods… unlike a commuter route when you could predict the passenger numbers/ train length a lot better)

Economists tell us that we need higher interest rates because there's too much money around apparently

The Interest Rates rise was more about trying to get inflation down (due to fuel prices etc), rather than to dampen growth as was often the case in the boom years of the 1980s

In my view, in the current economic climate, Government should be using the railways, and public transport in general, as an enabler to allow people to go about their business and contribute to the wider economy more cost effectively. That would involve holding fares down, rather than hiking them up at every opportunity though.

The problem is that you give the same answer regardless of the “current economic climate” (cheaper tickets, subsidised trains, focus on getting bums on seats even if overall revenue goes down)

That’s fair enough, those are your preferences, but let’s not pretend that this is your objective response to the specific problems of an economy recovering from higher fuel prices/ covid/ Brexit etc

 

[Ken H]

I agree

I think that the big increase at Grindleford suggests that more ordinary passengers are switched on to the Derbyshire Wayfarer “trick” of splitting tickets… the atrocious TPE performance has pushed a lot more people onto the Northern services (the stopper leaves Sheffield about three minutes after the TPE service was meant to, so it’s natural that this is the train that TPE passengers gravitate to rather than waiting half an hour for the EMR service)… the modern 46m 195s are much more attractive than the BR-era 30m 142s… Plus the cheap tickets the stopper attract more passengers (now that Northern have more seats to flog)… all of which makes the Northern service look busier but is overall revenue on line up or is it just canibalised? And, as you say, are the walkers contributing much to the economy with their thermoses? Passengers are welcome but some contribute more to the economy than others, and if we are arguing for more subsidies then we need to show how essential the railway is to jobs/ economy etc

(There’s also the problem that a route like the Hope Valley stopper is tough to plan for… will a 46m DMU be half empty on a rainy day but horribly busy when hundreds of people try to cram their bikes on board during the sunny periods… unlike a commuter route when you could predict the passenger numbers/ train length a lot better)



The Interest Rates rise was more about trying to get inflation down (due to fuel prices etc), rather than to dampen growth as was often the case in the boom years of the 1980s

Inflation is caused by excess government borrowing and printing money (QE). Governments around the world have been doing both for 2 1/2 decades. Then went mad during COVID. Now the chickens have come home to roost.
Inflation could damage public transport far more than government policy.

 

[yorksrob]

I agree

I think that the big increase at Grindleford suggests that more ordinary passengers are switched on to the Derbyshire Wayfarer “trick” of splitting tickets… the atrocious TPE performance has pushed a lot more people onto the Northern services (the stopper leaves Sheffield about three minutes after the TPE service was meant to, so it’s natural that this is the train that TPE passengers gravitate to rather than waiting half an hour for the EMR service)… the modern 46m 195s are much more attractive than the BR-era 30m 142s… Plus the cheap tickets the stopper attract more passengers (now that Northern have more seats to flog)… all of which makes the Northern service look busier but is overall revenue on line up or is it just canibalised? And, as you say, are the walkers contributing much to the economy with their thermoses? Passengers are welcome but some contribute more to the economy than others, and if we are arguing for more subsidies then we need to show how essential the railway is to jobs/ economy etc

(There’s also the problem that a route like the Hope Valley stopper is tough to plan for… will a 46m DMU be half empty on a rainy day but horribly busy when hundreds of people try to cram their bikes on board during the sunny periods… unlike a commuter route when you could predict the passenger numbers/ train length a lot better)



The Interest Rates rise was more about trying to get inflation down (due to fuel prices etc), rather than to dampen growth as was often the case in the boom years of the 1980s



The problem is that you give the same answer regardless of the “current economic climate” (cheaper tickets, subsidised trains, focus on getting bums on seats even if overall revenue goes down)

That’s fair enough, those are your preferences, but let’s not pretend that this is your objective response to the specific problems of an economy recovering from higher fuel prices/ covid/ Brexit etc

And what is the mechanism by which these higher interest rates are going to control inflation ?

You're not going to make imported fuel any cheaper. It might relieve pressure on the employment market by making people skinter as they won't be able to buy things and businesses will go bust, but they already seem pretty skint.

My public transport philosophy is part of a wider philosophy to get people spending money on domestic businesses in the British economy that are less affected by imported inflation.

 

[APT618S]

And what is the mechanism by which these higher interest rates are going to control inflation ?

You're not going to make imported fuel any cheaper

In theory increasing interest rates should increase the value of the pound reducing the price of imports. Another benefit is that it puts pressure on domestic companies to keep their prices down to avoid losing business to foreign companies.

That's a very pertinent point for the interest rate thread. Economists tell us that we need higher interest rates because there's too much money around apparently. As you say, it's not immediately apparent where it is.

Due to covid, since the start of 2020 the UK money supply M2 has increased by about 35% or around £800billion to well over £3trillion.
It is therefore hardly surprising that prices are rising as they have been:

United Kingdom Money Supply M2

Money Supply M2 in the United Kingdom increased to 3239710 GBP Million in July from 3236285 GBP Million in June of 2026. This page provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[yorksrob]

In theory increasing interest rates should increase the value of the pound reducing the price of imports. Another benefit is that it puts pressure on domestic companies to keep their prices down to avoid losing business to foreign companies.

Due to covid, since the start of 2020 the UK money supply M2 has increased by about 35% or around £800billion to well over £3trillion.
It is therefore hardly surprising that prices are rising as they have been:

United Kingdom Money Supply M2

Money Supply M2 in the United Kingdom increased to 3239710 GBP Million in July from 3236285 GBP Million in June of 2026. This page provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

The economists answer to this conundrum seems to be "make everyone skinter so things shut down", however (correct me if I'm wrong) everything shutting down was what got us into this mess in the first place.

My suggestion is to stimulate the service industries to soak up some of this excess money (wherever it is - doesn't appear to be round here) and retain a greater proportion of the wealth domestically.

 

[Bantamzen]

But constantly highlighting the fact that LNER are back above 2019 levels ignores the fact that they are a bit of an outlier and the majority of the railway has a long way to climb back

Exactly this. Much of the network has far to recover back to 2019 levels. For example on my morning commute into Leeds trains that would be full and standing more or less from the off are barely half full. There are signs during the day and weekends that a some recovery is underway, but the litmus test for me is that I have yet had to stand on any Aire or Wharfe service in or out of Leeds, even when I've hit the platform right before departure time. Pre-pandemic I was more often standing than sitting.

 

[RPI]

Imagine if the railway actually made an effort to collect most of the revenue due, would probably hugely reduce the burden on the tax payer

 

[greyman42]

I wish that I could be a bit more optimistic about the 'leisure wave' and its likely durability. This is not just about rail travel. Here in the Peak District - a national park within quite easy reach of large urban populations - it isn't clear that there is much money sloshing around. Plenty of pubs and cafes seem to have closed during this year (i.e. not directly due to covid).

I live in York and regularly visit London and both appear to be awash with money.

 

[Stephen42]

A few standouts

TPE now bottom of the table for recovery compared to 2019 although with the abysmal service provision hardly a surprise and this from an operator that had taken 54m in subsidy payments upto end of July see DfT release yesterday.

AWC close 2nd to bottom again poor service provision although it worsened further since Q3 although hopefully now has the foundations to rebuild.

LNER (106%) and EMR !00%) two standout operators driving passenger numbers.

On the revenue side season tickets remains at a lacklustre 34% of 2019 and in the qtr was worth £164 million of franchised passenger revenue compared to £556 million earned three years ago. Reinforcing as we know that this revenue stream is the fundamental issue for railway finances and in all likelihood has limited scope for further recovery although clearly must be some substitution of daily ordinary and off peak fares taking place as ridership isn't that low. However, the industry really does need to reset its offering to reflect the change working arrangements and I would have thought not having to resource the high peak should save cost in the longer term although there is a lot of infrastructure there which still needs looking after.

The best example of why the railway needs to be careful about how it changes its service offering going forward is this chart showing clear correlation with operators who are running a decent service vs those that aren't. Hopefully DfT will see that as well before it goes hacking further into service frequency.

View attachment 125339

The correlation for any trend is pretty low, while some specific operators may not be doing as well as they could be, there is a swathe of operators between -20% and -40% of journeys with near same passenger train kilometres to significantly less than their 2019 levels.

There were several other data series released at the same time which allow for different comparisons. Below is a graph comparing the same periods using passenger kilometres and passenger vehicle kilometres.

Some observations including LNER, Hull Trains and East Midlands have reduced passenger km even though larger passenger journeys (possibly longer distance commuting and split tickets). LNER has much lower train vehicle km despite only a minimal drop in passenger km suggesting better loadings - potentially yield management pricing tickets lower with higher occupancy? Nearly all operators have larger reductions in passenger km than train vehicle km. The correlation for the trend line is even worse on this comparison. My main take away would be that each operator has individual circumstances that makes comparisons tricky and revenue/subsidy figures not included are those more important to the ultimate decision makers.

 

[dk1]

I live in York and regularly visit London and both appear to be awash with money.

Couldn’t agree more. Was in York midweek recently & gave up trying to find anywhere in the central area due to queues out the doors one no tables available. London seems to be doing very well indeed except on strike days.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Couldn’t agree more. Was in York midweek recently & gave up trying to find anywhere in the central area due to queues out the doors one no tables available. London seems to be doing very well indeed except on strike days.

Yes, the contrast between some specific 'hotspots' and much of the rest of the UK is amazing. In the past couple of weeks I have attended two 'evening meals for five'. Central London - difficulty in booking and no change from £300 for two courses. Corby - easy availability and change from £60 for three courses.

Just goes to show how many people have to budget their lives and has an obvious extension into how much money is left 'sloshing around' for things like rail travel.

 

[dk1]

Yes, the contrast between some specific 'hotspots' and much of the rest of the UK is amazing. In the past couple of weeks I have attended two 'evening meals for five'. Central London - difficulty in booking and no change from £300 for two courses. Corby - easy availability and change from £60 for three courses.

Just goes to show how many people have to budget their lives and has an obvious extension into how much money is left 'sloshing around' for things like rail travel.

Those same days where the busiest I’ve seen York Railway station too even before the pandemic except for maybe race days. Such busy trains from & to all points. Today in Norwich you’d struggle to get a table in most decent establishments.

 

[Bald Rick]

Indeed and a clear example of where GTR should be curtailing the Gatwick-Bedford semi fasts to Luton but its all too difficult yet this is the sort of self help the industry should be offering to DfT even if the lead time is several timetable iterations to achieve.

Curtailing at Luton doesn’t actually save much money, and loses a lot more in revenue than the costs saved. It’s also not really possible in the timetable. However there’s plenty of other options available for Thameslinkand the wider GTR operation.

Thameslink needs a massive tidy up to a consistent hourly pattern with a few peak extras as LNR have done.

That’s exactly what the TL timetable is, north of the river at least.

Notably road peak hour traffic is back to 100%, it seems that rail commuting is a "Distress Purchase" that only absorbs the overflow when road is impractical. I know that's a bit of a generalism, and Central London likely an exception due to the costs of having a car there, but believe it is broadly true.

I tend to agree. London is definitely an exception, and a large one at that.

The services rebounding the most have been longer distance off peak ones which are primarily leisure.

That’s not correct. The type of passengers that have ‘rebounded’ the most are short distance leisure/off peak traffic. That’s well above Pre Covid levels, and the Rebound is nationwide including London (which has a much higher base, so the rebound affects the total figure disproportionately)

Long distance leisure /off peak traffic is below Pre covid, and has never been above it (since covid, obviously) There is wide variation between individual lines of route, naturally.