Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Gloster]

I can’t see Williamsongate having much effect: the public have such low expectations of MPs that a bit of foul language and a fit of pique by a prima donna is pretty small beer. There will have been a bounce effect when Sunak took over, if only on the basis of ‘he can’t be as horrendously incompetent as his predecessor.’ How long this will last is to be seen: once he starts making unpopular decisions, even if he avoids making them in a way that is seen as favouring donors and cronies, the support is likely to fall. And saying that it is all the fault of the last lot is unlikely to be a particularly effective ploy.

 

[brad465]

I can’t see Williamsongate having much effect: the public have such low expectations of MPs that a bit of foul language and a fit of pique by a prima donna is pretty small beer. There will have been a bounce effect when Sunak took over, if only on the basis of ‘he can’t be as horrendously incompetent as his predecessor.’ How long this will last is to be seen: once he starts making unpopular decisions, even if he avoids making them in a way that is seen as favouring donors and cronies, the support is likely to fall. And saying that it is all the fault of the last lot is unlikely to be a particularly effective ploy.

There are in particular already low expectations of Williamson himself, such that they won't have much effect because he can't go much lower.

 

[43096]

Except the publicity is all about the U-turn, which is less than ideal.

Sunak couldn't win with COP27. If he'd said he's going, then Starmer would have accused him of neglecting domestic issues.

 

[najaB]

Sunak couldn't win with COP27. If he'd said he's going, then Starmer would have accused him of neglecting domestic issues.

Climate change is a domestic issue.

 

[y3j]

Climate change is a domestic issue.

You're just twisting words. Climate change is a domestic issue along with a screwed economy, strikes, and everything else. As 43096 said, he couldn't win.

 

[edwin_m]

Least bad outcome for him would have been to say from the start that he planned to attend, if possible repeal Truss's ban on King Charles, and counter any criticism from Starmer etc by saying that the climate is a major priority. But, like most of the best possible outcomes, that would probably annoy the Tory climate denier tendency. So he ended up with the worst outcome in PR terms, saying he wouldn't go then flip-flopping just after Johnson announced he was going.

 

[najaB]

You're just twisting words. Climate change is a domestic issue along with a screwed economy, strikes, and everything else. As 43096 said, he couldn't win.

Sorry, but I think you are completely wrong here. Starmer would never have attacked him for attending COP27, given that, as @edwin_m notes, the Conservatives are seen as not taking climate change seriously enough.
Not to mention the terrible optics and impact on the UK's reputation of our PM skipping the first major international conference of his premiership.

On top of which, the majority of the issues facing the UK at the moment are economic in nature, which is the Chancellor's job to sort out, which would give a line of defence against any attacks that were launched.

 

[nw1]

There are in particular already low expectations of Williamson himself, such that they won't have much effect because he can't go much lower.

Nonetheless I suspect it will cement the view that the Sunak government is nothing to be enthused about. Less bad than Truss, true, but certainly nothing to feel positive or excited about at all. The Tories will continue to bump along well behind Labour, albeit not quite as far behind as they were under Truss. In other words, the Isle of Wight should now be a safe Tory hold (!), Mordaunt is probably safe in Portsmouth North, but a Labour gain in at least one of the Bournemouth seats, and perhaps even one of the Worthing seats (given council results this year) seems likely.

I would agree with @Gloster that an austerity budget by Hunt will have far more negative effect on the polls than the antics of Williamson (or even Braverman).

 

[najaB]

I would agree with @Gloster that an austerity budget by Hunt will have far more negative effect on the polls than the antics of Williamson (or even Braverman).

I agree that Williamson's antics are nothing but background noise, but too much noise and people won't hear your message. That's what did it for Boris - he likely could have survived any one of the many scandals that dogged him, but the constant, incessant nature of them made him more of an electoral liability than asset.

 

[nw1]

I agree that Williamson's antics are nothing but background noise, but too much noise and people won't hear your message. That's what did it for Boris - he likely could have survived any one of the many scandals that dogged him, but the constant, incessant nature of them made him more of an electoral liability than asset.

I'm not even sure what the message of the Sunak government is (!) - I guess that proves your point.

"We're less bad than Truss" and "we have to make savage cuts" are the only things coming through, if you filter out Suellagate and Williamsongate.

 

[najaB]

"We're less bad than Truss" and "we have to make savage cuts" are the only things coming through, if you filter out Suellagate and Williamsongate.

And it's not even "we have to make savage cuts" as much as it is "we choose to make savage cuts because we don't want to crack down on tax avoidance".

 

[DynamicSpirit]

And it's not even "we have to make savage cuts" as much as it is "we choose to make savage cuts because we don't want to crack down on tax avoidance".

I'm sure that's very fair. From all the reports, the Government has to fill a £60bn black hole in the budget forecasts. There's no way you could realistically find anything like that overnight by cracking down on tax avoidance.

Besides, what makes you think that the Government hasn't already been for many years trying to crack down on tax avoidance?

 

[najaB]

Besides, what makes you think that the Government hasn't already been for many years trying to crack down on tax avoidance?

Amazon’s main UK division paid no corporation tax in 2021, despite profits rocketing 60% to £204m.

The online retailer used the former Chancellor and now Tory leadership hopeful Rishi Sunak’s “super deduction” scheme for businesses that invest in infrastructure, by opening four new fulfilment centres

Amazon's main UK division paid no corporation tax in 2021 as profits rocketed 60%

Amazon’s main UK division paid no corporation tax in 2021, despite profits rocketing 60% to £204m.

www.thebookseller.com

Shell paid no tax on their UK oil and gas production in 2021 while receiving £100 million from taxpayers in government handouts, according to Labour.

The research by the Labour Party revealed that Shell and BP have taken £700 million of government handouts for oil and gas production since 2016, as new poorly designed tax breaks hand back billions more.

Shell paid no tax on UK production in 2021 and received £100m from taxpayer

With consumers facing £4,200 average household bills next year Labour called on the Tory government to do more to squeeze the oil giants record profits.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk

Starbucks paid just £5.4m in UK corporation tax last year despite making a gross profit of £95m.

The company, which has faced years of heated criticism for paying very little tax in the UK, paid out £26.5m in royalty payments, almost five times as much the UK tax it paid, according to accounts filed at Companies House.

Starbucks pays just £5m UK corporation tax on £95m gross profit

‘Administrative expenses’ of £78m, including royalties, utilities and maintenance, helped bring taxable profits down to £13m

www.theguardian.com

The amount of tax lost in Britain through non-payment, avoidance and fraud has increased to £35bn, according to official figures.

HM Revenue and Customs said the tax gap – the difference between the expected income for the exchequer and actual receipts – was estimated to have jumped by about £2bn in the 2019-20 financial year from the period a year earlier.

It said the figure represented a 5.3% shortfall of theoretical tax liabilities due, compared with 5% in 2018-19.

Tax lost in UK amounts to £35bn – almost half, say campaigners, due to fraud

Annual snapshot from HMRC comes as public finances are under biggest strain since the second world war

www.theguardian.com

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Amazon's main UK division paid no corporation tax in 2021 as profits rocketed 60%

Amazon’s main UK division paid no corporation tax in 2021, despite profits rocketing 60% to £204m.

www.thebookseller.com

Shell paid no tax on UK production in 2021 and received £100m from taxpayer

With consumers facing £4,200 average household bills next year Labour called on the Tory government to do more to squeeze the oil giants record profits.

www.dailyrecord.co.uk

Starbucks pays just £5m UK corporation tax on £95m gross profit

‘Administrative expenses’ of £78m, including royalties, utilities and maintenance, helped bring taxable profits down to £13m

www.theguardian.com

Tax lost in UK amounts to £35bn – almost half, say campaigners, due to fraud

Annual snapshot from HMRC comes as public finances are under biggest strain since the second world war

www.theguardian.com

Sure, those links show that there is potential for collecting more tax, but that doesn't automatically mean it's easy or that the Government aren't already trying to do that.

I certainly think we should be trying to make sure that everyone and all businesses pay their correct fair share of tax (after all, who wouldn't think that!) but I don't for a minute believe that the Government can just wave it's arms and magically instantly get an extra £60 bn in revenues.

 

[najaB]

Sure, those links show that there is potential for collecting more tax, but that doesn't automatically mean it's easy or that the Government aren't already trying to do that.

The thing is, a lot of the loopholes that corporations use to avoid paying more than the absolute minimum tax would be trivial to close, which is something has been known to the government for ages.

As a more recent example, consider the windfall tax that was reluctantly imposed on the oil and gas companies earlier this year. The months of dithering before implementing it and the overly-generous investment allowances meant literal billions in unrealised revenue: eg. Shell paid nothing despite global profits of over £20B so far this year.

Shell has paid zero windfall tax in the UK despite making record global profits of nearly $30bn (£26bn) so far this year, prompting calls for the government to overhaul a scheme that was supposed to raise billions to tackle the cost of living crisis.

The UK-headquartered oil company said it had not paid the levy and did not expect to throughout 2022, because its British corporate entity did not make any profits during the quarter, in part, because of heavy spending on drilling more oil in the North Sea.

Rishi Sunak, who took office as prime minister on Tuesday, introduced the energy profits levy in May when he was chancellor to help pay for support for British households hit by the cost of living crisis.

The government had expected to raise £5bn from the energy profits levy, but some analysts have warned that extensive use of tax reliefs could lead to much less being recouped.

Shell paid zero windfall tax in UK despite record global profits

Labour calls for ‘proper windfall tax’ on oil and gas while TUC describes profits as ‘obscene’

www.theguardian.com

 

[JamesT]

The thing is, a lot of the loopholes that corporations use to avoid paying more than the absolute minimum tax would be trivial to close, which is something has been known to the government for ages.

As a more recent example, consider the windfall tax that was reluctantly imposed on the oil and gas companies earlier this year. The months of dithering before implementing it and the overly-generous investment allowances meant literal billions in unrealised revenue: eg. Shell paid nothing despite global profits of over £20B so far this year.

Shell paid zero windfall tax in UK despite record global profits

Labour calls for ‘proper windfall tax’ on oil and gas while TUC describes profits as ‘obscene’

www.theguardian.com

Global profits are mostly irrelevant. Unless they've managed to find somewhere with lower taxes than the UK, then double-taxation treaties will mean they're paying their taxes on overseas operations overseas. Shell were already paying over double the normal corporation tax rate on their North Sea operations before the windfall tax came in.

Isn't investment to be encouraged? Taxing bumper profits now may feel good, but encouraging investment should result in future profits to be taxed, along with greater security of supply from production domestically.

 

[najaB]

Isn't investment to be encouraged?

If it's in renewables, yes. But they were able to write off UK tax obligations by investing in North Sea oil fields, which is a great way to help meet our climate change commitments.

Taxing bumper profits now may feel good, but encouraging investment should result in future profits to be taxed, along with greater security of supply from production domestically.

Shell 'invested' over $4B in buying their own stock. Not sure how that's going to result in future profits or greater security of supply.

And, for the umteenth time, it doesn't matter where the oil or gas are produced we pay the global price.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm sure that's very fair. From all the reports, the Government has to fill a £60bn black hole in the budget forecasts.

A hole that's entirely due to the actions of Conservative Government in recent weeks and months...

 

[Gloster]

The BBC and others are reporting that the new Royal Yacht, a.k.a. The Boris McBoatyface, is to be shelved. So that is £250 million (plus the usual MoD overrun) that won’t be spent/wasted on a vanity project.

 

[Peterthegreat]

A hole that's entirely due to the actions of Conservative Government in recent weeks and months...

And years.........

 

[brad465]

He sounds like an absolutely great guy to work around:

Senior civil servant claims Gavin Williamson told them to ‘slit your throat’

Exclusive: MoD official says minister subjected them to campaign of bullying when he was defence secretary

www.theguardian.com

A senior civil servant claims Gavin Williamson told them to “slit your throat” in what they felt was a sustained campaign of bullying while he was defence secretary.

The Ministry of Defence official told the Guardian Williamson made the extraordinary remarks in front of other civil servants in a meeting, and on a separate occasion told them to “jump out of the window”.

The Whitehall aide, who worked closely with the cabinet minister, claimed Williamson “deliberately demeaned and intimidated” them on a regular basis.

They reported the behaviour unofficially to the MoD’s head of human resources and took contemporaneous notes of the alleged incidents, but decided against making a formal complaint against the cabinet minister at that time.

Williamson, who was defence secretary from November 2017 until May 2019 when he was sacked after a leak from the national security council, was said to have “shouted and raged”.

The senior civil servant, who later left government, said the abuse was so bad that a senior military aide working in the department had later apologised for not calling it out.

Williamson denied that he bullied the civil servant and said he had good working relationships with his officials. However, the Guardian understands that he is not denying that he used those specific words.

In a statement, he said: “I strongly reject this allegation and have enjoyed good working relationships with the many brilliant officials I have worked with across government. No specific allegations have ever been brought to my attention.”

The claims come after Downing Street said No 10 had “full confidence” in the Cabinet Office minister despite the emergence of bullying claims and abusive text messages he sent to the former Conservative chief whip Wendy Morton.

Speaking at the Cop27 summit in Egypt, Rishi Sunak said: “There’s an independent complaints investigation that is happening and it’s right that we let that process run its course before passing judgment. I want to see the results of that, obviously, but I’ve been very clear that language is not right, it’s not acceptable. And that’s why I welcome the fact that Gavin Williamson has expressed regret about that and now we wait to see what the investigation says.”

The latest allegation poses yet more questions for the prime minister about his political judgment after he decided to reappoint Williamson – a close political ally who is seen to have played a key role in his leadership campaign – to government despite being aware of Morton’s complaint.

Text messages revealed over the weekend included angry remonstrations about not being invited to the Queen’s funeral and one that said “there is a price for everything”.

The prime minister’s spokesperson said on Monday that Sunak had a zero-tolerance approach to bullying, but had refused to sack Williamson, claiming he had an “important contribution to make to government”.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

He sounds like an absolutely great guy to work around:

Senior civil servant claims Gavin Williamson told them to ‘slit your throat’

Exclusive: MoD official says minister subjected them to campaign of bullying when he was defence secretary

www.theguardian.com

Its totally unacceptable to have people like this in position of power what sort of message does it send to the rest of the population. Sunak doesn't want to appear to be pushed around but like Boris he will crack and move him out probably before PMQs!

 

[Gloster]

Sunak appears to be backing Williamson, even though he is giving himself a little wriggle room by saying he will wait for the enquiry to report. So either he makes yet another U-turn if the enquiry is critical or he tries the Johnson ploy of saying, “Oh, that was long ago.”

 

[edwin_m]

Sunak appears to be backing Williamson, even though he is giving himself a little wriggle room by saying he will wait for the enquiry to report. So either he makes yet another U-turn if the enquiry is critical or he tries the Johnson ploy of saying, “Oh, that was long ago.”

Longer ago than 6 days as in the case of Braverman, so he's probably in the clear.

 

[AlterEgo]

Surprised Johnson’s resignation honours haven’t done the rounds on here yet. Some eye catching choices (!)

 

[Gloster]

Surprised Johnson’s resignation honours haven’t done the rounds on here yet. Some eye catching choices (!)

Have the Resignation Honours been announced: the ones announced on 14 October were routine Political Honours? The Resignation Honours list may still be being scrutinised by Lord Bew and the House of Lords Appointments Commission.

 

[AlterEgo]

Have the Resignation Honours been announced: the ones announced on 14 October were routine Political Honours? The Resignation Honours list may still be being scrutinised by Lord Bew and the House of Lords Appointments Commission.

They have indeed. He’s put an unknown adviser in her 20s in the Lords as a life peer. All seems terribly above board.

Pay walled but BBC will run it tomorrow I’m sure. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/young-aides-included-on-boris-johnsons-lords-list-8x2hnt5jn

The advisers are Ross Kempsell, 30, and Charlotte Owen, a former assistant to Johnson believed to be in her late twenties. Dan Rosenfield, the former Downing Street chief of staff, and Ben Gascoigne, a former deputy chief of staff, are also on the list.

 

[brad465]

Surprised Johnson’s resignation honours haven’t done the rounds on here yet. Some eye catching choices (!)

What's caught my eye and probably will be the most controversial aspect of the honours list is that 4 sitting MPs have been selected who, according to reports, will defer taking their seats in the Lords until after the General Election in order to avoid by-elections, which would be unprecedented/unconstitutional.

 

[Busaholic]

I certainly think we should be trying to make sure that everyone and all businesses pay their correct fair share of tax (after all, who wouldn't think that!)

Oh, the innocence!

Longer ago than 6 days as in the case of Braverman, so he's probably in the clear.

He owed Braverman, who might have brought some ERG support with her, whereas everyone loathes Williamson bar Sir Gawain himself. Presumably he was knighted for services to the tarantula industry!

 

[Gloster]

They have indeed. He’s put an unknown adviser in her 20s in the Lords as a life peer. All seems terribly above board.

Is this the final list or just the nominations? In theory the Appointments Commission could object to nominations, probably discreetly couched in terms like ‘expressed disquiet’, but I am not sure if they can actually block a nomination. They were unhappy about Lord Cruddas, but Johnson still pushed him into the Lords.