Future of Class 379

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I must admit - 26 years of service isn’t too shabby for the 365s. Granted they could have gone on for longer, but you can understand why they didn’t. You could understand the issues with the 379s if they were not really part of a common platform. It isn’t as if spare parts will be an issue.

The other shame is that the timing didn’t work out that EMR got the 360s rather than the 379s. Again if they had we would be having the exact same discussions about the 360s.

That is the trouble with fragmentation, back in BRs days people would have factored in the 150’s are not going to last forever and will cost x to replace. so we are going to need to spend this anyway, might as well spend this on wires and use existing trains.

Similarly, with the 360/2s, people need to realise that this is not like for like.
A fleet of 5 trains from 2005 is not the same as a fleet of 30 from 2011. What's anyone going to do with five five-carriage EMUs, other than EMR who clearly don't want them - they've got enough to run solidly 12 car services anyway and barely even make Corby solid eight car?

Thirty is a far more flexible number, and seeing as GWR want to replace Castles with IETs, and to be able to send some IETs off for crack repairs and bolster the many, many currently 5 car Swansea and Bristol services, I continue to think that the DfT should allow GWR to nab them. You only need fifteen to run a solid 12 car entirely electric hourly service to Cardiff, with the Swansea service remaining in the hands of IETs. They've got 2+2 seating and 2+1 in first class, space for a trolley and they've even got the same pale wood furnishings as the IETs - just need new seat covers and external green paint You’d release between 5 and 10 IETs (depending on whether single 800/3s or double 800/0s are used)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Nov 2022 ==

Point of order, it was a bit later than 94. 96 or even 97 from memory, the exact date was posted somewhere on here a while back.

Thank you for the information. It, however, does not change the point that 365s date from NSE time in the 90s, and 379s are around fifteen years younger and more modern in terms of features.

 

[bramling]

I must admit - 26 years of service isn’t too shabby for the 365s.

It isn’t 26 years. If we go with 96 as entry to service year, and some of the units being pulled from early 2018, some units will have only worked about 21-22 years. Others did a bit more, albeit very low mileage from 2018-21.

That is the trouble with fragmentation, back in BRs days people would have factored in the 150’s are not going to last forever and will cost x to replace. so we are going to need to spend this anyway, might as well spend this on wires and use existing trains.

Yes it’s frustrating that the wrong trains have tended to be replaced. Pacers hung on to the bitter end, 150/156/158 in particular are likely to be around for a long time yet (even if numbers reduce), then there’s some not particularly great modern designs which hang in there - 180 and Voyagers. The 321 and 365 fleets certainly weren’t life-expired.

 

[Failed Unit]

It isn’t 26 years. If we go with 96 as entry to service year, and some of the units being pulled from early 2018, some units will have only worked about 21-22 years. Others did a bit more, albeit very low mileage from 2018-21.




Yes it’s frustrating that the wrong trains have tended to be replaced. Pacers hung on to the bitter end, 150/156/158 in particular are likely to be around for a long time yet (even if numbers reduce), then there’s some not particularly great modern designs which hang in there - 180 and Voyagers. The 321 and 365 fleets certainly weren’t life-expired.

Yep one for a different thread, but they would be perfect for Wolverhampton - Shrewsbury, Sheffield - Leeds etc. Routes we are using 19x on now…. Very sad.

 

[JonathanH]

You only need fifteen to run a solid 12 car entirely electric hourly service to Cardiff, with the Swansea service remaining in the hands of IETs.

Cardiff services aren't in any way self contained though, so there would need to be a cut in Swansea services to do what you suggest. Problem then is that there is an Hitachi depot at Swansea which needs to see a proportion of the fleet each night.

Electrification to Oxford and Bristol is the better option but that involves capital expenditure.

 

[Bikeman78]

In what world would Southern lose some of their 377s, considering they’re getting the ones from SE as they simply don’t have enough units to replace their 40+ year old EMUs?

Nothing would surprise me any more. Are the 379s most similar to 375, 377 or 387? I'd have thought some sort of cascade could send more Electrostars to South Eastern and bin off some 465s. I think the latter still work to Tonbridge, Ashford and Gillingham so those workings could be replaced with Electrostars.

I wonder how treasury plans to deal with the oversized 701 and 720 fleets?

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Nothing would surprise me any more. Are the 379s most similar to 375, 377 or 387?

In terms of hardware, at least, 377-6/7 or 387.

 

[Bikeman78]

Yes, how dare those naughty passengers try to use the passenger railway. They must be priced off!

If trains can be overcrowded and still not come close to "paying their way" at current British fare levels, there is something fundamentally wrong with the system which will not be fixed by just increasing the fares a bit.

I have the same concern, and fares are already perceived by the general public to be expensive.

 

[43102EMR]

Nothing would surprise me any more. Are the 379s most similar to 375, 377 or 387? I'd have thought some sort of cascade could send more Electrostars to South Eastern and bin off some 465s. I think the latter still work to Tonbridge, Ashford and Gillingham so those workings could be replaced with Electrostars.

I wonder how treasury plans to deal with the oversized 701 and 720 fleets?

They lack the necessary third rail equipment - the only place they have in GTR is working the Great Northern route from Kings Cross to Peterborough/Cambridge/Kings Lynn.

 

[43096]

It will be an interesting situation when you think about it as just a metal box.

These numbers are to demonstrate the point, they are not real.

Current owned can’t least them so they decide to sell them
Scrap dealer offers £10,000
I offer £12,000

They should really sell them to me to get best value for their shareholders.

However I have got a cunning plan to least them a £1000 per year.

Suddenly scrapping them seems the better options as I am going to undercut them on other fleets, so they may scrap them to avoid me getting them. However they may also think, actually it is better to get £1500 per year (rather than the £3000 we originally wanted) to a least get some money back from our asset.

I don’t think they will be scrapped. I suspect they will lease them at a more realistic rate in the end. Scrapping will get immediate cash, but they are likely to offer them out on tender which means that others could buy them with the view of leasing them out. Selling them for scrap only could cause issue with shareholders.

The 379's are Akiem's only UK EMU fleet, so the risk of undercutting as you describe is absolutely minimal. Akiem only have them as they were part of the Macquarie European Rail acquisition, which was really about acquiring Macquarie's mainland European fleets (TRAXX etc) rather than any strategic wish to get into the UK passenger stock market.

 

[Bikeman78]

They lack the necessary third rail equipment - the only place they have in GTR is working the Great Northern route from Kings Cross to Peterborough/Cambridge/Kings Lynn.

Yes, I understand that, though conversion to dual voltage or third rail wouldn't be impossible. It's unfortunate that 30 units is slightly too small for Great Western or Great Northern. If they did one of those routes then 387s could go to Southern and 377s to South Eastern. That said, if 379s could run in multi with 387s, GW/GN could keep a few 387s if required.

 

[Failed Unit]

The 379's are Akiem's only UK EMU fleet, so the risk of undercutting as you describe is absolutely minimal. Akiem only have them as they were part of the Macquarie European Rail acquisition, which was really about acquiring Macquarie's mainland European fleets (TRAXX etc) rather than any strategic wish to get into the UK passenger stock market.

I guess that will make sale to the highest bidder more likely (even if it is the scrap merchant) They get out of rail and cut their losses. If another ROSCO chooses to buy them they will do that on its own business case on whatever capital cost they pay.

I should have done more research, so thank you. My bet is they get sold to another ROSCO so the race to the bottom can begin. If that results in another fleet going off lease that is business.

 

[JonathanH]

My bet is they get sold to another ROSCO so the race to the bottom can begin.

Why would another ROSCO buy a fleet of trains that no one wants to lease? Eversholt have Renatus 321s they would like to get further revenue from. Porterbrook have 323s and 350/2s they want to lease. Angel may have off lease units in due course as well. They aren't going to be able to both buy the 379s and lease them to an operator for less than Akiem can. It just doesn't make economic sense.

 

[Failed Unit]

Why would another ROSCO buy a fleet of trains that no one wants to lease? Eversholt have Renatus 321s they would like to get further revenue from. Porterbrook have 323s and 350/2s they want to lease. Angel may have off lease units in due course as well. They aren't going to be able to both buy the 379s and lease them to an operator for less than Akiem can. It just doesn't make economic sense.

Depends what they buy them for, if they are just above scrap value that is very possible.

 

[JonathanH]

Depends what they buy them for, if they are just above scrap value that is very possible.

But being available for scrap value implies that no operator wants to lease them. It is a bit circular.

I think what you envisage is similar to the GWR market testing exercise - eg Porterbrook says to GTR that it can provide 387s to Southern if it obtains the 379s for scrap value and touts them to GWR at a price that means it will release the 387s.

However, what isn't clear is why GWR / DfT would do this deal with Porterbrook owning both fleets but not with Akiem owning one and Porterbrook owning the other, if the market testing exercise hasn't reached that outcome. The DfT can reportedly move fleets about as it wishes so it isn't obvious where the saving comes from.

 

[Failed Unit]

But being available for scrap value implies that no operator wants to lease them. It is a bit circular.

I think what you envisage is similar to the GWR market testing exercise - eg Porterbrook says to GTR that it can provide 387s to Southern if it obtains the 379s for scrap value and touts them to GWR at a price that means it will release the 387s.

However, what isn't clear is why GWR / DfT would do this deal with Porterbrook owning both fleets but not with Akiem owning one and Porterbrook owning the other, if the market testing exercise hasn't reached that outcome. The DfT can reportedly move fleets about as it wishes so it isn't obvious where the saving comes from.

I am not aware of what the lease price for the 379s is currently

If Akiem want £5000 and GTR are leasing the 387s for £3000 then me buying the 379s for scrap value and leasing them to GTR for £1000 is good for GTR (and DfT). But as you say this race to the bottom is bad as someone has to write of the cash. The whole 379 story has actually burnt Akiem - but maybe the whole market as dumping the stock to get money some money on an asset is a real possibility.

I will leave it there, as I maybe risk taking this off topic. But I have a hunch these won’t be scrapped and these units will end up somewhere with some capital write off. Which could start a race to the bottom as the homeless 360/2 join the market.

In one respect it is amazing we got here in the first place, granted their were good reasons to replacement for a more standard fleet. Hopefully lessons are learned here, the 701 story is just as bad but at least the 465s are older (but still have lots of life left in them for an EMU)

 

[Energy]

Electrification to Oxford and Bristol is the better option but that involves capital expenditure.

Electrification to Oxford should happen once the Oxford remodelling is done. Didcot to Oxford is only 15 mins (12 mins without a stop at Radley) so I doubt there will be a need for any more stock.

 

[JonathanH]

Electrification to Oxford should happen once the Oxford remodelling is done. Didcot to Oxford is only 15 mins (12 mins without a stop at Radley) so I doubt there will be a need for any more stock.

Yes, particularly if running the locals fast from Slough saves a diagram, although Oxford services have typically run on to the sidings to turn back, which takes up time.

There is a chance that some Oxford fasts that don't go to the Cotswolds could be units, but I note that it is difficult to come up with self-contained diagrams.

 

[Energy]

Yes, particularly if running the locals fast from Slough saves a diagram, although Oxford services have typically run on to the sidings to turn back, which takes up time.

There is a chance that some Oxford fasts that don't go to the Cotswolds could be units, but I note that it is difficult to come up with self-contained diagrams.

I'd expect them to extend the current Didcot Parkway to Paddington service to Oxford.

 

[JonathanH]

I'd expect them to extend the current Didcot Parkway to Paddington service to Oxford.

Yes, but given the turnaround at Didcot is 17 minutes, running that on to Oxford requires at least one extra cycle.

 

[43096]

If Akiem want £5000 and GTR are leasing the 387s for £3000 then me buying the 379s for scrap value and leasing them to GTR for £1000 is good for GTR (and DfT). But as you say this race to the bottom is bad as someone has to write of the cash. The whole 379 story has actually burnt Akiem - but maybe the whole market as dumping the stock to get money some money on an asset is a real possibility.

I would doubt that it has burnt Akiem. At the time the Akiem acquisition of Macquarie European Rail went through (Feb 2020) the risk around re-leasing the 379s was already known, so Akiem would/should have factored that risk into its price. Macquarie would have been the losers. I would expect that Macquarie and/or Akiem may well have been writing down the asset value of the 379s as the risk has become greater.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Need a decent bit of suburban electrification to swallow up 30 units. But it needs to be done quickly !. And what is more likely at the moment is that existing electrification gets scaled back.

 

[RobShipway]

Electrification to Oxford should happen once the Oxford remodelling is done. Didcot to Oxford is only 15 mins (12 mins without a stop at Radley) so I doubt there will be a need for any more stock.

But you have also got to factor in the fact of electrification of the sidings so that the trains can turnaround, which would also mean that you electrify on the Cotswold line as far as Hanborough and as far as Banbury on the Midland/Chiltern line in the process.

If the above was to be done, then there is the likely possibility that GWR would need more EMU units, which could mean them using the class 379 units with them being similar to the class 387's units.

This could also mean if they used the whole 30 units in the class 379 fleet, that services to Cardiff could be replaced with using the class 379 units instead of the 80X units, which could then have the

Similarly, with the 360/2s, people need to realise that this is not like for like.
A fleet of 5 trains from 2005 is not the same as a fleet of 30 from 2011. What's anyone going to do with five five-carriage EMUs, other than EMR who clearly don't want them - they've got enough to run solidly 12 car services anyway and barely even make Corby solid eight car?

Thirty is a far more flexible number, and seeing as GWR want to replace Castles with IETs, and to be able to send some IETs off for crack repairs and bolster the many, many currently 5 car Swansea and Bristol services, I continue to think that the DfT should allow GWR to nab them. You only need fifteen to run a solid 12 car entirely electric hourly service to Cardiff, with the Swansea service remaining in the hands of IETs. They've got 2+2 seating and 2+1 in first class, space for a trolley and they've even got the same pale wood furnishings as the IETs - just need new seat covers and external green paint You’d release between 5 and 10 IETs (depending on whether single 800/3s or double 800/0s are used)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Nov 2022 ==


Thank you for the information. It, however, does not change the point that 365s date from NSE time in the 90s, and 379s are around fifteen years younger and more modern in terms of features.

You could then do as TT-ONR-NRN suggests above.

However, I am still of the opinion that we will see the class 379 units going to Great Northern, so that it releases the class 387's to go to Southern and then Southern releases 377 units to go to South Eastern, whilst at the same time using the class 377/3 units to replace the class 313 units.

 

[Southern Dvr]

Class 379s aren’t going to GN.
GN have sent their first Class 387 for ERTMS conversion work. Remember that work is so they can ditch all the lineside signals so the empty trains nobody is travelling on can get to the north quicker

I don’t believe SN cascading 377s away has ever been a plan.

 

[py_megapixel]

Class 379s aren’t going to GN.
GN have sent their first Class 387 for ERTMS conversion work. Remember that work is so they can ditch all the lineside signals so the empty trains nobody is travelling on can get to the north quicker

"Empty trains nobody is travelling on" - isn't LNER actually one of the few TOCs that has fully restored (and possibly even exceeded) its pre-Covid passenger numbers?

 

[RailWonderer]

It isn’t 26 years. If we go with 96 as entry to service year, and some of the units being pulled from early 2018, some units will have only worked about 21-22 years. Others did a bit more, albeit very low mileage from 2018-21.

Yes it’s frustrating that the wrong trains have tended to be replaced. Pacers hung on to the bitter end, 150/156/158 in particular are likely to be around for a long time yet (even if numbers reduce), then there’s some not particularly great modern designs which hang in there - 180 and Voyagers. The 321 and 365 fleets certainly weren’t life-expired.

I never understood why the GN had their 317s replaced with 365s so soon then 387s 20 years later yet the north and other regions were stuck with the same old trains for 40 years. Is there a reason behind this? Pacers and 153 should have been replaced at this time but again the government seemed to think (and to an extent still does) that only London and the south east matters.

The 321s were replaced early on the south WCML because of the route upgrades. You cannot have 100mph EMUs on a 125mph mainline hence the need for the 350/1s and to standardise the fleet and increase capacity they ordered the /2s, then the /3s a few years later and the /4s were a cascade. On the GN the 321s were replaced because of the Thameslink upgrades. Northern replaced theirs at the right time and on GA they were just old and tired from the great NX neglect years anyway.

Why would Voyagers be replaced on XC? The government won't fund a replacement so they wil hang in there for a while to come although Avanti are replacing theirs. Voyagers to be honest are great when doubled up or used in singles on less busy routes but are often crowded and full but as a train I am a fan of them.

 

[Failed Unit]

I never understood why the GN had their 317s replaced with 365s so soon then 387s 20 years later yet the north and other regions were stuck with the same old trains for 40 years. Is there a reason behind this? Pacers and 153 should have been replaced at this time but again the government seemed to think (and to an extent still does) that only London and the south east matters.

The 321s were replaced early on the south WCML because of the route upgrades. You cannot have 100mph EMUs on a 125mph mainline hence the need for the 350/1s and to standardise the fleet and increase capacity they ordered the /2s, then the /3s a few years later and the /4s were a cascade. On the GN the 321s were replaced because of the Thameslink upgrades. Northern replaced theirs at the right time and on GA they were just old and tired from the great NX neglect years anyway.

Why would Voyagers be replaced on XC? The government won't fund a replacement so they wil hang in there for a while to come although Avanti are replacing theirs. Voyagers to be honest are great when doubled up or used in singles on less busy routes but are often crowded and full but as a train I am a fan of them.

The 365s build was purely political to keep the factory at York open, then why not send it to the region of the prime minister at the time.

However it did help a few other issues. It was planned to run the 321s between Cambridge and Liverpool St. The DOO monitors were in the wrong place so they used the 317s instead. The 321s then went on the Great Eastern Mainline so they did directly replace slam door stock.

The pacers etc really was the lack of rolling electrification that kept them, some of the routes still are not even planned to be electrified.

But imagine if the MML had got electrified to Leeds, Birmingham - Nottiingham and TPE. Lots of other gaps in electrification could have helped in the North. Maybe they needed a levelling up project

 

[Southern Dvr]

"Empty trains nobody is travelling on" - isn't LNER actually one of the few TOCs that has fully restored (and possibly even exceeded) its pre-Covid passenger numbers?

Yes but that doesn’t suit the DfT narrative so isn’t well publicised. Most trains now are very busy and crying out for more stock. However (and I know we’re digressing) with ticket gates open and ticket offices closed there is no proper record of the journeys being made and thus no demand for more rolling stock because the trains are empty when they aren’t.

 

[Energy]

The 365s build was purely political to keep the factory at York open

Then soon after it closed.

You cannot have 100mph EMUs on a 125mph mainline hence the need for the 350/1s

The 350/1s were diverted from the SWT 450 order and didn't replace any stock apart from some temporarily hired loco hauled stock.

Class 379s aren’t going to GN.
GN have sent their first Class 387 for ERTMS conversion work.

The plan is all the electrostars to be done once the first 387 is approved under a join ROSCO agreement which includes Akiem.

 

[Failed Unit]

Then soon after it closed.

The general election was won then so who cares? (In the view of the people that used it as an election winning bribe) Still happening now with “Northern Powerhouse” and “levelling up”. As you know they say / do anything to get elected, then who cares until the next election.

 

[bramling]

The 365s build was purely political to keep the factory at York open, then why not send it to the region of the prime minister at the time.

However it did help a few other issues. It was planned to run the 321s between Cambridge and Liverpool St. The DOO monitors were in the wrong place so they used the 317s instead. The 321s then went on the Great Eastern Mainline so they did directly replace slam door stock.

The pacers etc really was the lack of rolling electrification that kept them, some of the routes still are not even planned to be electrified.

But imagine if the MML had got electrified to Leeds, Birmingham - Nottiingham and TPE. Lots of other gaps in electrification could have helped in the North. Maybe they needed a levelling up project

The 365s also allowed some 317s to be cascaded to LTS (though LTS never got all 25x 317 displaced), which combined with some other moves allowed the 302s to be withdrawn, and at one point most of the off-peak LTS service could in theory have become sliding-door, though I don’t think this was ever actually achieved in practice. Meanwhile, the 365s on GN were able to achieve significant growth thanks to their superior ambience.