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Liz Truss and the Conservative Party.

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yorksrob

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The 2019 Tory manifesto says 'We not only want to freeze taxes, but to cut them too'. Yes, that is given a specific context of raising tax thresholds at the bottom end, but it seems a fairly clear general statement. At another point it says 'Already, the top 1 per cent of income taxpayers pay over 29 per cent of income tax – higher than at any time under the last Labour Government.' which seems a fairly clear indication they would like to reduce the amount of tax that top 1 per cent pay.

(source : https://www.conservatives.com/our-plan/conservative-party-manifesto-2019)

Of course it also very explicitly says that National Insurance wouldn't be raised, and it was (did people ask for a general election about that?), so quite how much stock people want to put in manifestos is highly debateable anyway.

They don't mention anything about bout funding such cuts by public borrowing and service cuts.

If this plan is so well thought out, they should have no difficulty in commending it to the electorate.
 
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SuspectUsual

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Personally, she's better than Boris Johnson because everything she says isn't a lie, and because she seems capable and willing of answering questions directly

Really?!?

Most of the time there's an extended silence, followed by an awkward and mechanical regurgitation of something that may just be tangentially related to the question. (Apart from when she was asked about the triple lock, she was quick to answer that)
 

nw1

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Really?!?

Most of the time there's an extended silence, followed by an awkward and mechanical regurgitation of something that may just be tangentially related to the question. (Apart from when she was asked about the triple lock, she was quick to answer that)

Interviewer: "The pound has gone down. Are you happy about that?"

Truss: (5 seconds later) "It's all because of Vlad-i-mir Pioutin".
 

nw1

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A few days old, but this one hasn't come up yet.


Any sensible UK PM would tell far-right extremists like Meloni to go to hell.

Yet to people like Truss (and Thatcher), it seems like as long as a leader is right-wing, they are quite worthy of having good relations with even if they are thoroughly unpleasant individuals (cf. Thatcher and Pinochet).
 
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DynamicSpirit

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A few days old, but this one hasn't come up yet.


Any sensible UK PM would tell far-right extremists like Meloni to go to hell.

What on Earth is the problem with that tweet? Whatever the disagreement with Meloni's politics, she's just won a general election and looks set to become Prime Minister of a country that is supposedly one of the UK's allies, so the UK Government is going to have to work with her. It'd be pretty churlish and counter-productive not to start by congratulating her on her victory. Telling her to 'go to hell' as you suggest is hardly going to get relations off to a good start.

Or do you imagine the UK Government should just try to make enemies of anyone who's politics we might disapprove of?
 

dosxuk

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Or do you imagine the UK Government should just try to make enemies of anyone who's politics we might disapprove of?

Well she didn't seem to mind annoying Macron by failing to decide whether he was a friend or foe.

On another note, just as the Chancellor was wrapping up his speech, Savanta ComRes released a poll, with Labour again hitting the 50% mark.

https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1576962260773539841 said:
Lab 50 (+7)
Con 25 (-4)
LD 11 (-1)
SNP 3 (-2)
Gre 3 (-1)
Other 8 (=)
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The U-turn has only cost us £65 billion, what amazing value for money!
Bank of England have conducted 4 days of gilt buying and have only spent 3.6B so far and have got the 10Yr gilt down from 4.5 to 3.9% so unlikely to have spend anywhere like the 65B they said they would. Remember a lot of this is about posturing to the market to point out to them they have got a lot to lose if they really push.
 

Busaholic

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What on Earth is the problem with that tweet? Whatever the disagreement with Meloni's politics, she's just won a general election and looks set to become Prime Minister of a country that is supposedly one of the UK's allies, so the UK Government is going to have to work with her. It'd be pretty churlish and counter-productive not to start by congratulating her on her victory. Telling her to 'go to hell' as you suggest is hardly going to get relations off to a good start.

Or do you imagine the UK Government should just try to make enemies of anyone who's politics we might disapprove of?
Meloni is merely the leader of a coalition of three parties, the other two's leaders being men by the names of Berlusconi and Salvini, both unashamed and vocal Putin supporters until a few weeks ago, though they've been more silent recently. So, the 'jury's out' on Macron's France, but Meloni's win is to be welcomed! I'd describe that as extraordinary, if only it wasn't so par for the course for this mediocrity imposed upon us without our consent.
 

nw1

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What on Earth is the problem with that tweet? Whatever the disagreement with Meloni's politics, she's just won a general election and looks set to become Prime Minister of a country that is supposedly one of the UK's allies, so the UK Government is going to have to work with her. It'd be pretty churlish and counter-productive not to start by congratulating her on her victory. Telling her to 'go to hell' as you suggest is hardly going to get relations off to a good start.

Or do you imagine the UK Government should just try to make enemies of anyone who's politics we might disapprove of?
Should we treat people like her as friends though?

She seems to have some very questionable views indeed about LGBTQ rights, abortion and socialists, as well as non-Christian (Muslim?) immigrants. Plus she praised Mussolini as a young adult. She seems an extremely suspect individual.

I'm sorry, but it's time we stopped treating these hard-right leaders with respect, and deal with them very much with the greatest of caution. Not just her, but others like her, such as Le Pen, Orban, Bolsonaro (thankfully on the way out, it seems) and Erdogan. OK maybe not telling her to "go to hell", but just ignoring the result and not giving Meloni the attention she doubtless craves. Truss actively congratulating her just legitimises Meloni, and thus her views, on the international scene. I note that fellow congratulators included such questionable characters as Orban, Le Pen, the hard-right Vox party of Spain, the son of Bolsonaro and the leader of Poland's hard-right Law and Justice Party (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/political-reaction-italian-election-outcome-2022-09-26/). Other international figures, such as those from the USA, France or the EU, make much more muted comments.

Is this the sort of club the UK should be part of? Personally, I think the answer is most definitely No.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Meloni is merely the leader of a coalition of three parties, the other two's leaders being men by the names of Berlusconi and Salvini, both unashamed and vocal Putin supporters until a few weeks ago, though they've been more silent recently.
Salvini - another hard-right militant. Berlusconi - nuff said, basically. And if they are indeed Putin supporters, they can certainly go to hell.
So, the 'jury's out' on Macron's France, but Meloni's win is to be welcomed!
Quite. That statement says all we need to know about Truss.
 
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LittleAH

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They don't mention anything about bout funding such cuts by public borrowing and service cuts.

If this plan is so well thought out, they should have no difficulty in commending it to the electorate.
And ironically, while they were u-turning. It turns out another £18bn of public service cuts are on their way. Most notably hitting areas that are already on their knees such as social care.

But apparently to some, its all the medias fault...
 

yorksrob

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And ironically, while they were u-turning. It turns out another £18bn of public service cuts are on their way. Most notably hitting areas that are already on their knees such as social care.

But apparently to some, its all the medias fault...

Yes, that's what it will boil down to. Another round of cuts that no one voted for.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Should we treat people like her as friends though?

Yes we should. IF, once in Government they do things that are hostile to us, THEN we should reconsider, but not before that. For example, I would not regard either Trump or Orban as friends - but that's because they have both actually done things that are clearly harmful to humanity (In Orban's case, all but destroying democracy in Hungary, and undermining the EU's efforts to assist Ukraine, and in Trump's case, the obvious serial lying, the undermining of democracy, and the refusal to engage on the climate crisis). You're basically putting Meloni in the same camp purely on the basis of hearsay about her politics, without having seen anything of what she is actually going to do in Government.

Besides, the most serious and urgent problem on the international scene is making sure Russia is defeated in Ukraine. Meloni has taken a strong pro-Ukraine line but is allied with people who are (appallingly in my view) pro-Russia. In those circumstances, we need to engage to try to make sure that under Meloni, Italy does stay on-side as far as the Ukraine war is concerned. Deciding we want to treat her as some pariah purely because we don't agree with her views on - say - gay rights - before she's even taken office is really not going to help things at all!

I'm sorry, but it's time we stopped treating these hard-right leaders with respect,

I have to say I think that's an appalling attitude. We live in a World in which people have different opinions - for the very good reason that everyone has different life experiences which lead them to believe different things about the World. Some people's life experiences lead them to have opinions that other people find repulsive, and vice versa, but that's life! If you believe in democracy and in respecting human beings then you have to accept that - and get along by engaging with people, accepting those differences and trying to explain why you think your beliefs are correct. If you start going down the road of, only respecting people whose opinions you agree with then - bluntly - you're making yourself no better than people like Donald Trump or Victor Orban.
 

takno

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What on Earth is the problem with that tweet? Whatever the disagreement with Meloni's politics, she's just won a general election and looks set to become Prime Minister of a country that is supposedly one of the UK's allies, so the UK Government is going to have to work with her. It'd be pretty churlish and counter-productive not to start by congratulating her on her victory. Telling her to 'go to hell' as you suggest is hardly going to get relations off to a good start.

Or do you imagine the UK Government should just try to make enemies of anyone who's politics we might disapprove of?
Obviously there was something wrong with it because, classic Liz, she's only gone and u-turned by deleting it.
 

AlterEgo

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Should we treat people like her as friends though?
I thought we should be friends with our neighbours in the EU. We will need to work with Italy and have them onside.
She seems to have some very questionable views indeed about LGBTQ rights, abortion and socialists, as well as non-Christian (Muslim?) immigrants. Plus she praised Mussolini as a young adult. She seems an extremely suspect individual.
Yes she does seem very suspect. But she is also the elected leader of her country’s government - a major EU state and economy - and we have to engage with her in cordial terms.
 

brad465

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Obviously there was something wrong with it because, classic Liz, she's only gone and u-turned by deleting it.
Really? I've just checked and I can still see it. The bigger issue I and many others had was not so much her congratulating Meloni, but that at the time it was like the only time we'd heard from her while the markets were in turmoil as a result of Kwarteng's actions a few days earlier.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Really? I've just checked and I can still see it.

That's really weird! I just checked again and I can see it now too. I'm sure when I checked after reading @takno's post that it was explicitly showing as 'no longer visible' (or something like that - I can't recall the exact words on the Twitter page). Either I'm going mad or something very odd was happening. :lol:
 

Bletchleyite

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That's really weird! I just checked again and I can see it now too. I'm sure when I checked after reading @takno's post that it was explicitly showing as 'no longer visible' (or something like that - I can't recall the exact words on the Twitter page). Either I'm going mad or something very odd was happening. :lol:

If you block someone who quote Tweets you, your Tweet is not visible in their quote any more as well as not visible to the quoter, but is visible to everyone else if they access it directly. Could well be that. With Twitter having turned into a total block-fest, this is very, very common.
 

jfollows

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Kwasi Kwarteng (and Liz Truss) have now probably been forced to bring forward the new "fiscal statement" which was planned for 23 November(see https://www.theguardian.com/politic...fter-u-turn-on-top-rate-of-tax-kwasi-kwarteng, for example), at which time the Office for Budget Responsibility report was going to be published as well, although the Treasury will receive the report on 7 October. The OBR forecasts are likely to be published alongside a "fiscal statement" later in October instead.
This is presumably in response to the criticism of the relatively long time until 23 November when this was first announced, and the delay in publication of the OBR forecasts, and presumably Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng became aware of the trouble their back-bench MPs could put them under.
It seems to me that Liz Truss, in particular, has continued the same mistake of Boris Johnson by appointing only supporters to her cabinet, who - even if consulted about the budget fiasco - weren't the people who would point out the potential problems with it in advance. Her icon - Margaret Thatcher - didn't make that mistake, at least not until towards the end of her time in office anyway.

EDIT In addition, her refusal to guarantee benefits will rise in line with inflation (even given that it would be CPI inflation rather than RPI inflation) is a gift to Labour, and has caused dissenting opinion to be raised by Penny Mordaunt, who is in the Cabinet, so today's U-turn topic has been set out.

I just noticed also that on the radio this morning she said she leads a "listening government" which seems to me to be a triumph of wishful thinking over reality - she and her government only started listening when they realised their jobs were on the line.
 
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yorksrob

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The sooner we get to see the scale of cuts they will require, the better.
 

nw1

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I have to say I think that's an appalling attitude. We live in a World in which people have different opinions - for the very good reason that everyone has different life experiences which lead them to believe different things about the World. Some people's life experiences lead them to have opinions that other people find repulsive, and vice versa, but that's life! If you believe in democracy and in respecting human beings then you have to accept that - and get along by engaging with people, accepting those differences and trying to explain why you think your beliefs are correct. If you start going down the road of, only respecting people whose opinions you agree with then - bluntly - you're making yourself no better than people like Donald Trump or Victor Orban.

I never said "only respecting people whose opinions you agree with". I singled out the hard-right as a group who should not be respected. Not the plain right.

For example I definitely did not agree with the beliefs of Margaret Thatcher or Ronald Reagan. I don't completely agree with Macron and various other EU leaders. I didn't think much of George W. Bush. I am scarcely the biggest fan of Boris Johnson. But because none of these are hard-right, they are all worthy of some degree of respect.

To me Meloni belongs much more in the Trump/Orban/Le Pen camp than the Thatcher/Reagan/Bush/Johnson one. How is she really that different to Trump? I always find it strange when people attack Trump but defend his European equivalents.

I should also say that the BBC describe her as far-right, so it's not just my own opinions coming into play here. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62659183

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I just noticed also that on the radio this morning she said she leads a "listening government" which seems to me to be a triumph of wishful thinking over reality - she and her government only started listening when they realised their jobs were on the line.

She comes across incredibly amateurish on the radio. And, from the way she speaks, almost as if she is trying to be a young person, not sure if it's some kind of manufactured naivety or intonation in an attempt to be "right-on".
 
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Typhoon

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That's really weird! I just checked again and I can see it now too. I'm sure when I checked after reading @takno's post that it was explicitly showing as 'no longer visible' (or something like that - I can't recall the exact words on the Twitter page). Either I'm going mad or something very odd was happening. :lol:
Maybe she U-turned her U-turn? :)
 

jfollows

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Truss refuses to say that she "has confidence in" her Chancellor, Kwarteng. At the same time, unnamed members of her Cabinet are briefing that she didn't bring proposals such as the abolition of the 45% tax rate to Cabinet for discussion. So she either doesn't trust her Cabinet or has lost control of it, even more surprising since it's a cabinet of supposed Truss supporters. And her back-bench MPs have effectively gone wild now, they know they can derail any of her policies they don't like with ease.
So, as I said earlier, it's like 1995-97 again, the government is up against a time limit when it's going to get a major beating which will put the Conservatives out of power for years, so it will struggle on to January 2025 until it's forced to call an election, which I believe has to be 25 working days or fewer after the fifth anniversary of 17 December 2019, which gets to Thursday 23 January 2025 I believe.

EDIT To me, the interesting numbers are:
  • Truss won 113 votes from Conservative MPs out of 358, with Sunak winning 137 votes and Mordaunt 105
  • Boris won 160 votes from Conservative MPs out of 313, with Hunt winning 77 votes and Gove 75
More MPs in total for Truss (but she still had fewer votes) but Boris won more than 50% of the possible votes and Truss won less than 32%.

So there are 242 Conservative MPs who didn't vote for Truss, and what percentage of that number does it take to cause her serious trouble?
 
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nw1

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Truss refuses to say that she "has confidence in" her Chancellor, Kwarteng. At the same time, unnamed members of her Cabinet are briefing that she didn't bring proposals such as the abolition of the 45% tax rate to Cabinet for discussion. So she either doesn't trust her Cabinet or has lost control of it, even more surprising since it's a cabinet of supposed Truss supporters. And her back-bench MPs have effectively gone wild now, they know they can derail any of her policies they don't like with ease.
So, as I said earlier, it's like 1995-97 again, the government is up against a time limit when it's going to get a major beating which will put the Conservatives out of power for years, so it will struggle on to January 2025 until it's forced to call an election, which I believe has to be 25 working days or fewer after the fifth anniversary of 17 December 2019, which gets to Thursday 23 January 2025 I believe.
But do you actually think they'll have another silly winter election?

No-one will be able to campaign effectively as it will be dark, wet and miserable except during working hours and weekends.

And people might not be bothered to vote if there's an election in a dark, wet, miserable time of year.

I'd hope they'd hold it (at the latest) in the latest sensible timeslot possible, namely June 2024. (July and August being no-go due to being the holiday season).

Of course maybe that's part of the plan - hold an election at a time of year when the turnout will be low, in the knowledge that Tory voters tend to be the most reliable at voting, and hope for a "largest party in a hung parliament" outcome as a result.

Maybe we should change the election laws so that they have to be held in the spring and summer, so as to encourage turnout...
 

Lost property

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Truss refuses to say that she "has confidence in" her Chancellor, Kwarteng. At the same time, unnamed members of her Cabinet are briefing that she didn't bring proposals such as the abolition of the 45% tax rate to Cabinet for discussion. So she either doesn't trust her Cabinet or has lost control of it, even more surprising since it's a cabinet of supposed Truss supporters. And her back-bench MPs have effectively gone wild now, they know they can derail any of her policies they don't like with ease.
So, as I said earlier, it's like 1995-97 again, the government is up against a time limit when it's going to get a major beating which will put the Conservatives out of power for years, so it will struggle on to January 2025 until it's forced to call an election, which I believe has to be 25 working days or fewer after the fifth anniversary of 17 December 2019, which gets to Thursday 23 January 2025 I believe.
Whilst this may be technically correct, to be fair, the chances of a GE in a invariably cold and miserable January are probably nil. Boris got away with by being the charismatic lying narcissus that he is.

Her "success " in winning the so called "leadership " contest was helped by Sunak tarnishing his own carefully created "brand Sunak" all by himself even if, with hindsight, he was proven correct about her non existent grasp of economics.

Jokes about her aside, not that there's anything remotely funny about her or her ideology, and remember her ideological inspiration is Thatcher which should set every form of alarm ringing in itself, she's actually a very dangerous individual when it comes to running the UK.

She may, although this could change of course, be committed to the "triple lock " but, when it comes to benefits, she's under the impression benefit claimants are actually able to work so just force them to do by denying them benefits linked to inflation and do, please, remember who the Deputy PM is and her well documented and actioned vindictive attacks on benefits.

If she is actually arrogant enough to try and reduce benefits, then she, and the Tory party (genuine and current anything but Tory party alike) are finished for a very. very long time. This would be karma for all the damage and hardships they have wreaked on the UK and the electorate.
 

jfollows

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But do you actually think they'll have another silly winter election?
I think there's a good possibility, if the polling doesn't improve (and it may well do, of course), because there's no point in going to nigh-on-certain defeat in August if you can string it out until January. Notwithstanding the further harm having a completely dead government in charge for five months will do, but I don't think they care about that.
 

dosxuk

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So after yesterdays claims that they're listening and that's why they're changing their minds, Truss has been out doing the media rounds saying she still wants to reduce the tax rates for higher earners, but still won't commit to keeping benefits in line with inflation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63131391

At this rate there's going to be a full scale rebellion amongst the Tory party - it feels like even the cabinet are starting to realise how bad things are looking for them.

But do you actually think they'll have another silly winter election?

Yes - the way things are looking, they're going to be getting a kicking from the electorate, so I expect them to put that off for as long as possible.
 

Typhoon

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So, as I said earlier, it's like 1995-97 again, the government is up against a time limit when it's going to get a major beating which will put the Conservatives out of power for years, so it will struggle on to January 2025 until it's forced to call an election, which I believe has to be 25 working days or fewer after the fifth anniversary of 17 December 2019, which gets to Thursday 23 January 2025 I believe.
I hate to say this, it is worse than Major's government. He had obtained a mandate by seeing off Kinnock (a more credible PM than Corbyn). He had the support of the (vast) majority of MPs. He had a cabinet with a spine of proven ministers, the flack was almost entirely from outside (I notice Mordaunt has spoken out - below). It was only when Maastricht came along did he really run into difficulty. This government is falling apart after a month and I'm not sure she has the political nous to get it back on track, she is too driven by "Brittania Unchained". And the climb down was earlier than any I think Major did. She now has a problem with rebels; they suggested voting against financial measures (such as the 45p tax band), they were threatened with withdrawal of the whip, only to find they were proved to be 'right' in that it was withdrawn. What happens next time? I don't think many can be cowered into not opposing (or at least not opposing) government policy when mutterings create a U-turn. I gather whips even had to ring round to try to get MPs to attend the conference.

From https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1577177068919754753?s=20&t=2HsQ-CC5om7j-X5zoLhMmw
Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt tells me #TimesRadio benefits SHOULD rise with inflation: “I’ve always supported - whether it’s pensions, whether it’s our welfare system - keeping pace with inflation. It makes sense to do so. That’s what I voted for before.”
 
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