Russia invades Ukraine

[Broucek]

I think some of it was designed for the likes of the Daily Express to pick up on, and duly frighten its readers

Not just the Express... Same in the Guardian. BBC rather less hysterical, to its credit

Unfortunately, fear and anger are part of the business model for today's media ("impact rather than insight" as a senior FT journo said to me recently).

 

[najaB]

I think some of it was designed for the likes of the Daily Express to pick up on, and duly frighten its readers

I thought the Express pretty much was Pravda with glasses and a fake moustache?

 

[Cdd89]

I wonder if this is an example of “escalating to deescalate”. I suspect they would be prepared to walk away with current borders formalised (referendums and “defending Russia” only works in that context) and they are gambling that they will get that.

 

[adc82140]

I wonder if this is an example of “escalating to deescalate”. I suspect they would be prepared to walk away with current borders formalised (referendums and “defending Russia” only works in that context) and they are gambling that they will get that.

You may be right. Attempting to strengthen their position before entering in to negotiations. If that were the case, Ukraine should take the position that if Russia takes any territory, the rest of Ukraine should be free to join NATO.

 

[takno]

I wonder if this is an example of “escalating to deescalate”. I suspect they would be prepared to walk away with current borders formalised (referendums and “defending Russia” only works in that context) and they are gambling that they will get that.

Not a chance anybody is going to accept a Russian takeover of the south, so the places he's currently faking referendums in couldn't ever provide a basis for negotiation. The pre 2022 battle lines might be what he's after, but he isn't doing anything that would drive negotiations in that direction

 

[najaB]

I suspect they would be prepared to walk away with current borders formalised (referendums and “defending Russia” only works in that context) and they are gambling that they will get that.

And rewarding Russia for their aggression towards Ukraine with tens of thousands of square kilometres of additional territory is in whose interest?

 

[GS250]

Putin threatening nuclear attacks on Britain again!!! Absolute evil b*****d. How worried should we be that he'll actually do this? I would say he is mad and evil enough to do so. This is extremely extremely worryingly.

We've been here before but whatever he does will be met with at minimum a full UK nuclear response. Just remember we have enough warheads to pretty much end Russia as a functional Nation. In all likelihood it would be a full NATO response including America anyway. No more Russia of any description. China....who are probably the key players here would NOT be impressed at the post apocalypse environmental and economic catastrophe.

As someone else has said, it plays into the Western media's hands nicely. Yet again there's images of weapons systems any how many could be deployed etc. The 'willy waving' count of how many thousands of warheads is academic anyway. Once the first few hundred are done with...that's likely the end of proceedings anyway.

Its clear for me, Putin is nearing the end. However, the more he continues to fool his own people the longer he holds onto power.

 

[RichJF]

We've been here before but whatever he does will be met with at minimum a full UK nuclear response. Just remember we have enough warheads to pretty much end Russia as a functional Nation. In all likelihood it would be a full NATO response including America anyway. No more Russia of any description. China....who are probably the key players here would NOT be impressed at the post apocalypse environmental and economic catastrophe.

As someone else has said, it plays into the Western media's hands nicely. Yet again there's images of weapons systems any how many could be deployed etc. The 'willy waving' count of how many thousands of warheads is academic anyway. Once the first few hundred are done with...that's likely the end of proceedings anyway.

Its clear for me, Putin is nearing the end. However, the more he continues to fool his own people the longer he holds onto power.

Pretty much what the Soviet Union used to do in the 70s/80s. Constantly threaten & try to provoke the rest of the world into fear, then get what they want.

It's only because the 90s/00s made us less fearful of rhetoric like this, that we're scared again.

 

[TheEdge]

We've been here before but whatever he does will be met with at minimum a full UK nuclear response. Just remember we have enough warheads to pretty much end Russia as a functional Nation. In all likelihood it would be a full NATO response including America anyway. No more Russia of any description. China....who are probably the key players here would NOT be impressed at the post apocalypse environmental and economic catastrophe.

Got to remember about NATO article 5. A nuclear attack on any NATO member would result in retaliation from NATO as a whole, and one of the cornerstones of NATO is a willingness to use nuclear weapons if needed. So that's the US, UK and France bringing their arsenals to bear.

I'm not too concerned, mainly because there is clearly atrocious rot in the Russia Ground Forces, Air Force and Navy. I have no doubt the same rot is in the Rocket Forces and those rockets and warheads that need constant maintenance and likely of dubious functionality. I do wonder where North Korea and Iran got their nuclear material from...

 

[najaB]

I do wonder where North Korea and Iran got their nuclear material from.

Iran has domestic enrichment capacity sufficient to produce enough nuclear material for several nuclear reactors (their stated purpose) or a smaller number of fission bombs. It's slightly less clear if DPRK enriched all of their own material or purchased it from reprocessed Soviet-era devices.

 

[Gloster]

The following is my opinion. The differences between now and the pre-1990s was that the Soviet leadership was more of a collective one: even though the General Secretary was dominant, it would be very difficult for him to take such a drastic decision alone. Putin has pretty well concentrated all the power in his hands, so there is nobody to put forward a more moderate view. The only restraint on Putin is that he must get the military to do the dirty work for him. The best hope is that the military will get fed up with seeing their forces being destroyed and decide that enough is enough. This is one case where a military coup might be a least worst option.

 

[TheEdge]

Iran has domestic enrichment capacity sufficient to produce enough nuclear material for several nuclear reactors (their stated purpose) or a smaller number of fission bombs. It's slightly less clear if DPRK enriched all of their own material or purchased it from reprocessed Soviet-era devices.

I would still suspect there may be a few military officers with very nice dachas on the Black Sea who are probably sweating quite a bit at the moment.

Meanwhile Non Credible Defense continues to make an utter mockery of everything that comes out of the Kremlin, esepcially about how they are "at war" with NATO...

"My Tzar, we are in a war against the entire NATO!"

"I see... What are our losses?"

"80 000+ causalities, 10 000+ armored vehicles, hundreds of aircraft, thousands of tons of ammunition in destroyed ammo depots, our foreign stocks, our credit rating, and our international image."

"And NATO losses?"

"NATO hasn't entered the battlefield yet."

Russia-NATO war

Russia: 50 000 dead, thousands of equipment destroyed, economy in ruins

NATO: has not yet entered the conflict

I do recommend a read of that subreddit if you want a surreal chuckle at this whole situation. NSFW if you do want to follow that link and quite tasteless at times.

 

[Essan]

You can read a full transcript of Putin's lies to the people of Russia here: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

 

[DustyBin]

Got to remember about NATO article 5. A nuclear attack on any NATO member would result in retaliation from NATO as a whole, and one of the cornerstones of NATO is a willingness to use nuclear weapons if needed. So that's the US, UK and France bringing their arsenals to bear.

I'm not too concerned, mainly because there is clearly atrocious rot in the Russia Ground Forces, Air Force and Navy. I have no doubt the same rot is in the Rocket Forces and those rockets and warheads that need constant maintenance and likely of dubious functionality. I do wonder where North Korea and Iran got their nuclear material from...

The other problem with launching an ICBM is that the launch would be detected instantly but (I don't think?) anybody would know the target. Therefore you'll very likely get a full response from all potential adversaries. It's completely suicidal.

 

[GS250]

You can read a full transcript of Putin's lies to the people of Russia here: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

I know the West isn't as squeakie clean as it makes out. Russia quite rightly views it with suspicion. However that speech from Putin is absolutely obscene as it is dangerous.

 

[jon0844]

I think some of it was designed for the likes of the Daily Express to pick up on, and duly frighten its readers

They're probably more terrified about whatever Meghan Markle is saying or doing.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

They're probably more terrified about whatever Meghan Markle is saying or doing.

Good to see that true Socialists are not similarly affected by such trivialities....

 

[Russel]

I think some of it was designed for the likes of the Daily Express to pick up on, and duly frighten its readers

The Express is a disgrace, if you pay attention to them, WW3 has been due to start every day since Feb 24th.

 

[takno]

The Express is a disgrace, if you pay attention to them, WW3 has been due to start every day since Feb 24th.

That's simply not true. They had a week off that to pay respects to the queen, and they've been kept up "everything gives you cancer" Fridays throughout. I haven't actually checked, but I imagine the ongoing McCann saga has taken up some of their attention as well.

I'm still a bit confused as to who their audience is tbh. I can't imagine anybody under 60 reads it, and they must remember what it was like to live insouciantly under these kinds of threats in the 80s.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I think some of it was designed for the likes of the Daily Express to pick up on, and duly frighten its readers

Didn't work if that was the intention. Looking at the pictures on the BBC's Newspaper headline summary (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-62989911), the Express is the only paper that doesn't mention Putin's threats on the front page (It's leading on a story about a proposed 2-week limit on the time to wait for a GP appointment). I think The Sun has the cleverest headline (Good News... Vlad News, contrasting the release of the Britons being held by the rebels in Donbas with Putin's threats)

 

[OhNoAPacer]

What is not known us how China is going to react to the outcome of the 'referenda' whereby Russia takes ownership of parts of Ukraine. If the Chinese response is to support the outcome and so recognise these areas as being Russian territory then they could then supply Russia with weaponry under the guise of helping a country to defend it's territory.

 

[Howardh]

What is not known us how China is going to react to the outcome of the 'referenda' whereby Russia takes ownership of parts of Ukraine. If the Chinese response is to support the outcome and so recognise these areas as being Russian territory then they could then supply Russia with weaponry under the guise of helping a country to defend it's territory.

Doesn't any "swap" of land have to go throught the United Nations or similar body? Surely you can't just claim territory on fixed referendums?

Ukraine war: Russia arrests hundreds as call-up sparks protests

Russia's partial military call-up triggers protests - and a rush for flights to foreign destinations.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russian police are reported to have arrested hundreds of protesters rallying against the Kremlin's decision to call up thousands of extra troops to fight in Ukraine.
Russian human rights group OVD-Info put the total at more than 1,300. The largest numbers arrested were in St Petersburg and Moscow.
Dozens were held in Irkutsk and other Siberian cities, and Yekaterinburg.
Flights out of Russia sold out fast after Vladimir Putin's announcement.

Nothing there that wasn't predicted, those wishing to escape the call up can only fly to territories that accept Russians without visas, I'm thinking maybe we in Europe could accept them if they can prove they are "reservists" to (a) save their lives and (b) reduce the numbers fighting against Ukraine?

 

[kristiang85]

The Express is a disgrace, if you pay attention to them, WW3 has been due to start every day since Feb 24th.

I'm surprised they haven't run an opinion piece on what Princess Diana would have done in WW3....

 

[DustyBin]

Didn't work if that was the intention. Looking at the pictures on the BBC's Newspaper headline summary (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-62989911), the Express is the only paper that doesn't mention Putin's threats on the front page (It's leading on a story about a proposed 2-week limit on the time to wait for a GP appointment). I think The Sun has the cleverest headline (Good News... Vlad News, contrasting the release of the Britons being held by the rebels in Donbas with Putin's threats)

It seems slightly odd to threaten us with nuclear annihilation and then a few hours later say “here, have your captured nationals back”. I suspect it’s all just to keep us guessing……

Nothing there that wasn't predicted, those wishing to escape the call up can only fly to territories that accept Russians without visas, I'm thinking maybe we in Europe could accept them if they can prove they are "reservists" to (a) save their lives and (b) reduce the numbers fighting against Ukraine?

I thought the same but I suppose the security risk is too great.

Putin did previously say he’d cause a refugee crisis didn’t he?

 

[Yew]

It seems slightly odd to threaten us with nuclear annihilation and then a few hours later say “here, have your captured nationals back”. I suspect it’s all just to keep us guessing……



I thought the same but I suppose the security risk is too great.

Putin did previously say he’d cause a refugee crisis didn’t he?

Such threats are fairly routine, it's just that the papers have decided to make some headlines - doom (however unlikely) makes them money.

 

[DustyBin]

Such threats are fairly routine, it's just that the papers have decided to make some headlines - doom (however unlikely) makes them money.

True, although it’s not usually Putin himself making them. At least he confirmed that he was indeed bluffing previously though!

 

[Howardh]

It seems slightly odd to threaten us with nuclear annihilation and then a few hours later say “here, have your captured nationals back”. I suspect it’s all just to keep us guessing……



I thought the same but I suppose the security risk is too great.

Putin did previously say he’d cause a refugee crisis didn’t he?

Think the obvious solution is to get called up, end up on the front line, surrender, be captured as a Prisoner of War and claim asylum? That's if you can get to the point of surrender without being killed first. If it were me, my mental mindset would be, the minute I'm given a weapon, would be to turn it against my superiors and say "if I'm going down then you're going down with me" vis-a-vis those superiors will be watching their backs more than their Ukranian opponents?

 

[DustyBin]

Think the obvious solution is to get called up, end up on the front line, surrender, be captured as a Prisoner of War and claim asylum? That's if you can get to the point of surrender without being killed first. If it were me, my mental mindset would be, the minute I'm given a weapon, would be to turn it against my superiors and say "if I'm going down then you're going down with me" vis-a-vis those superiors will be watching their backs more than their Ukranian opponents?

This is the problem Putin now has. As I’ve said previously, none of these reservists are willing participants, or else they wouldn’t be reservists at this point. The Russians have been trying to recruit for months. Some may feel a sense of duty and fight, albeit reluctantly, but I expect many will do whatever it takes not to, whether that be surrendering to the Ukrainians, blowing holes in themselves, deserting, or indeed mutinying.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Doesn't any "swap" of land have to go throught the United Nations or similar body?

In the 1920s, what methodology was used in Ireland as there were certain border areas that were subject to much discussion when the country was finally split in twain?

 

[Howardh]

This is the problem Putin now has. As I’ve said previously, none of these reservists are willing participants, or else they wouldn’t be reservists at this point. The Russians have been trying to recruit for months. Some may feel a sense of duty and fight, albeit reluctantly, but I expect many will do whatever it takes not to, whether that be surrendering to the Ukrainians, blowing holes in themselves, deserting, or indeed mutinying.

One thought, if they can't train, equip or feed their regular army properly, what chance the reservists? They would have been last in line for any such training/equipment, and I doubt they will get much before being thrown to the wolves, and add there's a very severe winter ahead of them - they will probably be extremely cold, hungry, frightened, homesick....basically a ticking bomb. I frankly can't see it any other way....if they wanted to fight the war, they'd already be there?

But back home, if Putin starts to call up the police then I bet they won't be as keen to break up the demonstrations. The key phrase that the Russians are "googling" is "how to break an arm" apparantly - a disability like that means you don't get called up I suppose. What price an arm and a leg??

'How to Break Arm' Becomes Top Google Trend as Russians Face Conscription

Google searches for 'how to break arm' explode in Russia after Putin announces a partial mobilization to fight his war in Ukraine.

www.newsweek.com

Google searches for "how to break an arm at home" surged in Russia after President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilisation

of the population to fight in Ukraine.

The Russian president said conscription would only be applied to reservists, with the decree taking effect on Wednesday.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who spoke after Putin's address to the nation, said 300,000 men with "previous military experience" would now be called up.