Brexit matters

[Sm5]

The EU FoM to the UK was wage and unemployment driven, in 2005, wages in Poland/ Romania /Bulgaria etc were a about fifth of the UK, an immigrant could earn in a week , a month of pay in Poland, the destruction of several economies , gave rise to major structural unemployment as high as 50%, within young people in the Southern Mediterranean states, Portugal, Spain in particular , , the UK became the repository for the unemployed of several states.

And everyman and his dog took advantage of them in hotels, bars, restaurants, catering, builders, joiners, plumbers, painters, DIY, fruit picking etc. restablished the dying high street with international foods and saved many churches. They also kept inflation down, currency up (taking those £’s back home with uk bought cars full of electronics etc), created a market for additional millions of UK jobs and helped maked second homes possible for Brits with a very strong rental market.

Now many have gone home, living in their self built homes overseas, in countries with salaries, spend and lifestyle quality that are now at or exceeding our own in some cases, but managed to secure a route to return with UK citizenship at some point, best of both worlds.. there millions of UK born EU children who will be free as dual nationals to work as both EU and UK citizens, setting up very strong future careers, against UK only born graduates who will have right to work in UK only.

as for..those jobs in hotels, bars, restaurants, catering, builders, joiners, plumbers, painters, DIY, fruit picking etc. well the BBC is spouting how bad inflation is daily… no other developed country has our levels of inflation, predicted to be ongoing for as much as 3 years…

 

[JamesT]

as for..those jobs in hotels, bars, restaurants, catering, builders, joiners, plumbers, painters, DIY, fruit picking etc. well the BBC is spouting how bad inflation is daily… no other developed country has our levels of inflation, predicted to be ongoing for as much as 3 years…

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe - depending on your definition of ‘developed’ I suppose you could exclude the Eastern European nations that have (much) higher rates of inflation than we do. Even at a push you could argue Greece and Spain aren’t as developed, even though Spain is a G20 member. But are you seriously arguing that the Netherlands aren’t a developed country? The EU average is only 0.3% off our current level.

 

[najaB]

But are you seriously arguing that the Netherlands aren’t a developed country? The EU average is only 0.3% off our current level.

I think the key part of @Sm5's post is the second part of the phrase "predicted to be ongoing for as much as 3 years" We're the only country predicted to have inflation as high as it is for as long as it is.

In the G20 only Argentina, Russia and Turkey are predicted to have a higher rate into 2023.

Inflation Rate Forecast 2026/2027

Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. Inflation Rate Forecast 2026/2027 - was last updated on Thursday, August 20, 2026.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Sm5]

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe - depending on your definition of ‘developed’ I suppose you could exclude the Eastern European nations that have (much) higher rates of inflation than we do. Even at a push you could argue Greece and Spain aren’t as developed, even though Spain is a G20 member. But are you seriously arguing that the Netherlands aren’t a developed country? The EU average is only 0.3% off our current level.

Do you have those figures from 2016 to current, and a forecast from 2022-2025 ?

edit, thanks the link you provided has the data…

i found on the same site, Euro area forceast to have peaked and inflation in decline…

between c4-c9% over 12 month already peaked

https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi

And UK…

between 4-15% over 18 month, not yet peaked Until Jan 2023, and even then only dropping to 10% over 2 years.

United Kingdom Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in the United Kingdom increased to 2.90 percent in July from 2.60 percent in June of 2026. This page provides - United Kingdom Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

and your Dutch example..

Between 5-10% over 12 month and already peaked dropping to 5% in 6 months..
.

Netherlands Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate in Netherlands increased to 3.20 percent in July from 2.90 percent in June of 2026. This page provides - Netherlands Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

iirc.. your £1 bottle of milk:

Uk to £1.04 in 2021, to £1.15 in 2022 and then £1.32 in 2023….£1.45 in 2024

Holland to £1.05 in 2021, £1.10 in 2022 and £1.21 in 2023..£1.27 in 2024

That assumes the bottle of milk was £1 in both Holland and UK to begin with.

 

[reddragon]

Must admit it's a source of amusement to watch the hard brexiteer types constantly whinging about them 'comin' over here'. They'll never be happy and if they spent as much time on the real issues facing the world we might actually start getting somewhere in terms of solutions.

Of course the British living in the EU are expats not immigrants and exceed those who can here by a factor of 2!

 

[tomuk]

Of course the British living in the EU are expats now immigrants and exceed those who can here by a factor of 2!

Not sure what you trying to say because that sentence doesn't make sense. Anyhow most figures say that there were twice as many people taking advantage of FOM from outside the UK as those from within.

 

[Doppelganger]

The EU FoM to the UK was wage and unemployment driven, in 2005, wages in Poland/ Romania /Bulgaria etc were a about fifth of the UK, an immigrant could earn in a week

Ignorance, they say is bliss.

Isn't it easy to just scoop everyone together?

For reference Poland and Hungary joined the EU in 2004 and Bulgaria in 2007.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Aug 2022 ==

you could exclude the Eastern European nations that have (much) higher rates of inflation than we do.

And this speaks volumes too.

Poland and Hungary for instance are Central Europe, why are they being clumped into "Eastern Europe"??? There is a massive lack of understanding about the politics and geography of Europe!

 

[alex397]

Poland and Hungary for instance are Central Europe, why are they being clumped into "Eastern Europe"??? There is a massive lack of understanding about the politics and geography of Europe!

Indeed there is!

Although I’ll say there’s a better level of understanding on RailUK than the British average. Lots of people I know don’t even understand local geography. For example, on my Geography course, a fellow student was convinced Hertfordshire (where they lived) was south of London.

 

[Annetts key]

The EU FoM to the UK was wage and unemployment driven, in 2005, wages in Poland/ Romania /Bulgaria etc were a about fifth of the UK, an immigrant could earn in a week , a month of pay in Poland, the destruction of several economies , gave rise to major structural unemployment as high as 50%, within young people in the Southern Mediterranean states, Portugal, Spain in particular , , the UK became the repository for the unemployed of several states.

And of course, there has never been people moving both within the U.K. and between the U.K. and other countries before due to there being a better job opportunity elsewhere has there?

 

[E27007]

And of course, there has never been people moving both within the U.K. and between the U.K. and other countries before due to there being a better job opportunity elsewhere has there?

And of course there is no a correlation whatsoever between the surge-growth of Payday loan companies and/or Poundshop-style outlets and mass immigration of cut-wage labour from everyone-knows-where.

 

[RT4038]

And of course, there has never been people moving both within the U.K. and between the U.K. and other countries before due to there being a better job opportunity elsewhere has there?

There has, of course - all a matter of degree. Not sure there has been a comparable movement which destabilised the local workforce in quite the same way (the rural to urban internal, and the outward colonial worker migrants, were mainly for employment in sectors not previously worked at all - that isn't to say they did not destabilise the local social systems, but the locals didn't have referenda on the matter.) Possibly the UK migrants to the Transvaal for the gold mines, and look what conflict was stirred up there! Different era and circumstances of course.

 

[reddragon]

There has, of course - all a matter of degree. Not sure there has been a comparable movement which destabilised the local workforce in quite the same way (the rural to urban internal, and the outward colonial worker migrants, were mainly for employment in sectors not previously worked at all - that isn't to say they did not destabilise the local social systems.) Possibly the UK migrants to the Transvaal for the gold mines, and look what conflict was stirred up there! Different era and circumstances of course.

There was significant migration south from Northern cities in the 1970's-1980's due to deindustrialisation with some like Liverpool losing 2% per annum down from 1.4m to 850k over that period.

 

[najaB]

Not sure there has been a comparable movement which destabilised the local workforce in quite the same way (the rural to urban internal, and the outward colonial worker migrants, were mainly for employment in sectors not previously worked at all - that isn't to say they did not destabilise the local social systems, but the locals didn't have referenda on the matter.)

*cough* Highland Clearances *cough*

 

[RT4038]

Poland and Hungary for instance are Central Europe, why are they being clumped into "Eastern Europe"??? There is a massive lack of understanding about the politics and geography of Europe!

The politics are that they are all ex USSR satellite states in one way or another, and geographically they are all East of Western Europe. When we speak of Western Europe this usually includes Spain, Italy and Austria - no-one particularly makes distinction of Austria being in Central Europe or Italy as Southern Europe, unless drilling down into some detail. It is not a 'massive lack of understanding', it is political and geographical shorthand, and not necessarily inaccurate.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There has, of course - all a matter of degree. Not sure there has been a comparable movement which destabilised the local workforce in quite the same way (the rural to urban internal, and the outward colonial worker migrants, were mainly for employment in sectors not previously worked at all - that isn't to say they did not destabilise the local social systems, but the locals didn't have referenda on the matter.) Possibly the UK migrants to the Transvaal for the gold mines, and look what conflict was stirred up there! Different era and circumstances of course.

You could probably cite the recent movement of (usually, wealthy) people from around London to places like the West Country and the large-scale purchasing of second homes as a somewhat comparable thing within the UK. It's not directly displacing local people from jobs, but is making it very hard for locals to find somewhere to live.

 

[RT4038]

*cough* Highland Clearances *cough*

And how did that destabilise the local workforces elsewhere in the country?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Aug 2022 ==

You could probably cite the recent movement of (usually, wealthy) people from around London to places like the West Country and the large-scale purchasing of second homes as a somewhat comparable thing within the UK. It's not directly displacing local people from jobs, but is making it very hard for locals to find somewhere to live.

But it is not directly comparable, as you say, because it has not really affected the local employment markets as such. Yes, there are social issues (as of course provincial people moving to London has increased rent and house prices there).

British people moving from one part of the country to the other, for whatever reason, is not really comparable. Need to find examples of UK workers emigrating to other countries and undercutting the local workforce already in employment. I can't immediately think of any comparable examples, certainly not on any scale.

 

[najaB]

And how did that destabilise the local workforces elsewhere in the country?

Large numbers of unskilled workers (at least, not skilled in industry) arriving into Glasgow and the surrounding areas lead to massive social issues in the areas they moved to. It's not surprising that a significant number of the crofters who were cleared ended up emigrating to Canada.

 

[RT4038]

Large numbers of unskilled workers (at least, not skilled in industry) arriving into Glasgow and the surrounding areas lead to massive social issues in the areas they moved to. It's not surprising that a significant number of the crofters who were cleared ended up emigrating to Canada.

I am sure there were social issues (as there were with the Agricultural Revolution elsewhere in the UK causing a similar rural to urban emigration), and the 'safety valves' were further emigration, particularly to Canada, but elsewhere in the Empire too, and the Industrial revolution also provided large numbers of new jobs in the Central Belt of Scotland, which this immigration would have filled. Were the circumstances, including the safety valves, that similar to the situation of foreign national FOMers? Not really.

 

[Doppelganger]

The politics are that they are all ex USSR satellite states in one way or another, and geographically they are all East of Western Europe. When we speak of Western Europe this usually includes Spain, Italy and Austria - no-one particularly makes distinction of Austria being in Central Europe or Italy as Southern Europe, unless drilling down into some detail. It is not a 'massive lack of understanding', it is political and geographical shorthand, and not necessarily inaccurate.

No one days Italy is Southern Europe?

They certainly do.

Central European countries want to move away from the association with being part of the Soviet bloc, so please at least afford them that courtesy and acknowledge they are where they are and aren't still forced into a relationship they had zero say over.

 

[najaB]

Were the circumstances, including the safety valves, that similar to the situation of foreign national FOMers? Not really.

Agreed. Because we had the right to require those people to leave if they didn't find work, unlike the situation with people who had moved from one part of the country to another.

 

[AM9]

No one days Italy is Southern Europe?

They certainly do.

Central European countries want to move away from the association with being part of the Soviet bloc, so please at least afford them that courtesy and acknowledge they are where they are and aren't still forced into a relationship they had zero say over.

Saying that the ex Soviet countries are in Eastern Europe is not only a politicalfalsehood, it also shows a basic lack of knowledge of what the continent 'Europe' is:
Excluding the Atlantic archipelagos of the Azores, the Canaries, and Madeira the continent of Europe stretches from the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula (approx. 9 deg W), and the Ural Mountains (approx. 58 deg E). Thus the median longitude is about 24 deg E, (which is to the east of Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hugary, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia. That means that none of those countries are 'East European' geographically.
If devided into West, Central and East, then half of Ukraine is in Central Europe.

 

[RT4038]

No one days Italy is Southern Europe?

They certainly do.

Central European countries want to move away from the association with being part of the Soviet bloc, so please at least afford them that courtesy and acknowledge they are where they are and aren't still forced into a relationship they had zero say over.

The association with being part of the Soviet bloc is a fact; a part of their history. With that association comes a certain economic state at the time of dissolution. Their geography has not changed they are in the central part of Eastern Europe (as in not Western Europe as understood politically and geographically prior to 1980).

Agreed. Because we had the right to require those people to leave if they didn't find work, unlike the situation with people who had moved from one part of the country to another.

But that is neither here or there, especially as the exercising of that right was not really practicable without further 'mainland Europeanisation' of our systems. Now we have the right not to allow those people to look for work at all, which reduces the downward pressure on wages on, and overlooking of, the resident workforce.

Saying that the ex Soviet countries are in Eastern Europe is not only a politicalfalsehood, it also shows a basic lack of knowledge of what the continent 'Europe' is:
Excluding the Atlantic archipelagos of the Azores, the Canaries, and Madeira the continent of Europe stretches from the Atlantic coast of the Iberian Peninsula (approx. 9 deg W), and the Ural Mountains (approx. 58 deg E). Thus the median longitude is about 24 deg E, (which is to the east of Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hugary, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia. That means that none of those countries are 'East European' geographically.
If devided into West, Central and East, then half of Ukraine is in Central Europe.

They were 'Eastern' Europe politically prior to 1980, with the other countries being 'Western' Europe. They are still East of the countries previously considered 'West'. Owing to their history prior to 1980, they had certain economic characteristics post 1980. However, their history cannot be wiped out, no matter how much they might like. This is a mixture of politics, history and geography, and has no intention of being exactly geographically correct. When their economies and politics align with the Western European countries then maybe 'Eastern Europe' may only refer to Ukraine and Russia in time to come? But all this is an aside really.

 

[Doppelganger]

The association with being part of the Soviet bloc is a fact; a part of their history. With that association comes a certain economic state at the time of dissolution. Their geography has not changed they are in the central part of Eastern Europe (as in not Western Europe as understood politically and geographically prior to 1980).


But that is neither here or there, especially as the exercising of that right was not really practicable without further 'mainland Europeanisation' of our systems. Now we have the right not to allow those people to look for work at all, which reduces the downward pressure on wages on, and overlooking of, the resident workforce.


They were 'Eastern' Europe politically prior to 1980, with the other countries being 'Western' Europe. They are still East of the countries previously considered 'West'. Owing to their history prior to 1980, they had certain economic characteristics post 1980. However, their history cannot be wiped out, no matter how much they might like. This is a mixture of politics, history and geography, and has no intention of being exactly geographically correct. When their economies and politics align with the Western European countries then maybe 'Eastern Europe' may only refer to Ukraine and Russia in time to come? But all this is an aside really.

Where are you getting 1980 from???

Politically they were Eastern Europe until 1989.

Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary Slovakia etc have always been in central Europe. Trust me, if you tell a Pole they are Eastern Europe, they will tell you Poland is in Central Europe in no uncertain terms.

 

[najaB]

But that is neither here or there, especially as the exercising of that right was not really practicable without further 'mainland Europeanisation' of our systems.

Again, the fact that we chose not to do things that we had the right to do is nobody's fault but our own, and not really a justification for making trade with our largest trading partner exponentially more difficult.

Now we have the right not to allow those people to look for work at all, which reduces the downward pressure on wages on, and overlooking of, the resident workforce.

By, as you yourself have said, shrinking our economy!

They were 'Eastern' Europe politically prior to 1980, with the other countries being 'Western' Europe.

Checks calendar. Yes, it is still 2022.

 

[RT4038]

Where are you getting 1980 from???

Politically they were Eastern Europe until 1989.

Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary Slovakia etc have always been in central Europe. Trust me, if you tell a Pole they are Eastern Europe, they will tell you Poland is in Central Europe in no uncertain terms.

Sorry, 1990 not 1980 ! A Pole may well think so, but I'm not a Pole.

Again, the fact that we chose not to do things that we had the right to do is nobody's fault but our own, and not really a justification for making trade with our largest trading partner exponentially more difficult.

I don't think that is really fair - the right was based on the practicalities of mainland European administrative systems - which was not really appropriate for the circumstances here. Also the Govt. at the time did not think the immigration of FOMers was going to be the issue that it became. Whatever the mistakes then, did not mean that a quantity of the population just had to put up with the situation for evermore - they voted Brexit. No amount of arguing or pointing to historical precedents, or upselling their right to live and work in Bulgaria, to justify why they should put up with it matters - Brexit is done.

By, as you yourself have said, shrinking our economy!

Due to the oil / gas price shocks mainly, I think, which will probably affect European economies similarly. if Brexit affects our economy even worse, so be it. We have gone through plenty of crises before and come out better (by at least some measure) the other side......

 

[Doppelganger]

Sorry, 1990 not 1980 ! A Pole may well think so, but I'm not a Pole.

You still have the year wrong. 1989. Check out the Solidarity movement and the fall of the Berlin wall.

Secondly, do you not think a Pole knows where they live? Probably a Brit knows better though, right?

 

[najaB]

Due to the oil / gas price shocks mainly, I think, which will probably affect European economies similarly. if Brexit affects our economy even worse, so be it.

Okaaayy...

We have gone through plenty of crises before and come out better (by at least some measure) the other side.

How many of them were self-inflicted and ongoing though?

Probably a Brit knows better though, right?

Sigh. That'll be the same British exceptionalism that informs Brexit.

 

[Gloster]

...if Brexit affects our economy even worse, so be it. We have gone through plenty of crises before and come out better (by at least some measure) the other side......

The traditional, ‘We’re British. We survived the Blitz. We can take it.’ Usually followed with an increasing Churchillian voice and mutterings about Spitfires, the White Cliffs of Dover, seeing off Johnny Foreigner, etc. Too many people in this country are harking back to past glories achieved by others and somehow feel that that means they can meet any challenge with a stiff upper lip (and shouting louder at foreigners). There are plenty of things in our recent past for Brits to be proud of, but you must deal with new problems with new solutions, not saying, ‘Well, that’s how we beat the Luftwaffe’. End of rant.

 

[RT4038]

How many of them were self-inflicted and ongoing though?

Sigh. That'll be the same British exceptionalism that informs Brexit.

Most self inflicted in one way or the other, I should think! Britain is exceptional.

The traditional, ‘We’re British. We survived the Blitz. We can take it.’ Usually followed with an increasing Churchillian voice and mutterings about Spitfires, the White Cliffs of Dover, seeing off Johnny Foreigner, etc. Too many people in this country are harking back to past glories achieved by others and somehow feel that that means they can meet any challenge with a stiff upper lip (and shouting louder at foreigners). There are plenty of things in our recent past for Brits to be proud of, but you must deal with new problems with new solutions, not saying, ‘Well, that’s how we beat the Luftwaffe’. End of rant.

If you're not proud to be British, and believe in yourself and your fellow countrymen and women, then where does that leave you? Should have moved to EU Europe when you could. Too many people hanging their heads in shame for our history, relying on others to look after us - when the chips are down they will look after no. 1 (as we have seen already in the Ukraine game). That is not to say that we should despise anyone or not be friends - just not too close. Perhaps EU membership was just that - too close and controlling. (Other views are available).

 

[Doppelganger]

Britain is exceptional.

Are you really writing this stuff???

This is comedy gold.