When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[birchesgreen]

The 1922 committee need to act now and do their shadowy moves stuff, they can't wait 4 days. This is really extraordinary.

 

[C J Snarzell]

This is getting rather ridiculous now. You'd think BJ would just throw the towel in and call it a day and announce he is resigning.

At the rate this is going, I am half expecting Carrie Symonds and their two children to leave number 10 next, while the blonde numpty remains inside.

It's almost like BJ is repeating Donald Trump's final days at the White House.

CJ

 

[Annetts key]

Even a few days ago, I would have said the suggestion in bold was nonsense. But now, who knows? I honestly wouldn't put anything past him now.

Even if he loses a vote of confidence next week, I don't think he'll go. I hope the Labour Party are ready to fight a general election as it's looking increasingly likely we'll have one soon.

Don’t confuse the two different aspects, which are the leader of the Conservative party and the Prime Minster. They are normally the same person when the Conservative party have a majority.

The Conservative party can’t remove Boris as PM, but can select a new Conservative party leader. If enough Conservative party MPs vote against him, he will no longer be the Conservative party leader.

The monarch will appoint the MP who can command confidence in the House of Commons. If Boris can no longer do this, the monarch will appoint an MP who can. There does not have to be a general election.

 

[DelayRepay]

The 1922 committee need to act now and do their shadowy moves stuff, they can't wait 4 days. This is really extraordinary.

I thought they'd tried that and failed last night when Graham Brady went to see Boris Johnson.

We know from the way the Brexit negotiations happened, and some of the decisions during Covid, that Boris Johnson only thinks of the short term. He'll be working to survive today and probably not even thinking about what might happen next week when the newly elected 1922 committee change the rules and hold a vote.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

Don’t confuse the two different aspects, which are the leader of the Conservative party and the Prime Minster. They are normally the same person when the Conservative party have a majority.

The Conservative party can’t remove Boris as PM, but can select a new Conservative party leader. If enough Conservative party MPs vote against him, he will no longer be the Conservative party leader.

The monarch will appoint the MP who can command confidence in the House of Commons. If Boris can no longer do this, the monarch will appoint an MP who can. There does not have to be a general election.

I'm not confusing the two things.

I understand that in the short term no general election is constitutionally necessary. But any new Conservative leader will come under pressure to hold one, as Prime Ministers who take up their position mid-term always do.

I would be surprised if, one way or another, we do not have a general election either later this year or next Spring.

 

[The Ham]

I would be surprised if, one way or another, we do not have a general election either later this year or next Spring.

Depending on who wins they may well look for an election if they think that some of the local Tory Party want their Boris loyalists out so that they don't have too many trouble makers.

Of course the risk is that too many of the Tory MP's get punished for being loyal to Boris for too long and get voted out.

 

[Fragezeichnen]

Brandon Lewis has decided to resign for real, evidently he was pleased with the result of his trial resignation last night

 

[birchesgreen]

I think if they hold a general election now it'll make 1997 look like a good result for them.

 

[450.emu]

Like the final Class 315s, Johnson may not be removed for some time yet...

 

[The Ham]

BBC are reporting Helen Whately, the exchequer secretary to the Treasury, has just announced her resignation from government.

 

[jfollows]

Boris Johnson is making the utterly specious claim that he has a "mandate" from the people, but people didn't vote for Boris, they voted for the Conservative Party. However of course we know that more people voted Conservative in 2019 because Boris was in charge, but that's not the same thing. He's trying to turn his job into a presidential one, which he'd like it to be clearly, but that's not the way it works here .... maybe there's an argument that it should, but that's a different topic.

But the thing to me is that it's clearly doomed, so he seems to want to be dragged out of the job with as much public noise as possible, because there's no way he's going to be able to stay in his job. So he wants his legacy to be that he didn't resign (because in some way that's dishonourable in his eyes?) but was "unfairly" kicked out of his job.

I think a lot of his thoughts whilst being PM has been about his "legacy". He wants to be thought of as a "great" prime minister by "history". I think he'll be thought of as a great disaster of a prime minister, but that's for others and time to judge. Some prime ministers' reputations improve over time (John Major?) whereas others tarnish (Tony Blair?).

I think the sad thing is that Boris Johnson is primarily and almost exclusively interested in Boris Johnson, and not the country for which he has been lucky to be appointed to a senior post. My view is that he's always put his interests before those of everyone else, but that's just me.

He will be gone soon, and surely even he can't think otherwise, so it's just the manner of his departure that he's influencing now. Sadly.

 

[DelayRepay]

Brandon Lewis has decided to resign for real, evidently he was pleased with the result of his trial resignation last night

Nicely timed to be on the morning news. Last night's attempt came too late in the day and got lost amongst all the other resignations.

Is the Northern Ireland Assembly still suspended? Because I would imagine having no Northern Ireland Assembly, and no Secretary of State for Northern Ireland is quite a dangerous position, given the ongoing Brexit issues.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

I think a lot of his thoughts whilst being PM has been about his "legacy". He wants to be thought of as a "great" prime minister by "history". I think he'll be thought of as a great disaster of a prime minister, but that's for others and time to judge. Some prime ministers' reputations improve over time (John Major?) whereas others tarnish (Tony Blair?).

If he'd gone earlier, he might have been remembered as the Prime Minister who delivered Brexit (and whatever you think about that topic, his party were elected with a large majority on a commitment to 'Get Brexit Done').

People may have been sympathetic that much of his Premiership was spent dealing with Covid, rather than delivering new hospitals and all the other things he promised to do. I think most people agree the vaccine programme was a big achievement. Other mistakes were made during the pandemic, and we need to see what the enquiry says, but I think overall he may have left office with his reputation in tact.

Now, he won't be remembered for the good things but for the sleaze, the lies and his desperate attempt to cling onto power at all costs. It's a bit like Blair - he did a huge amount of good as Prime Minister, but his legacy isn't the Good Friday Agreement, the National Minimum Wage or any of the other achievements. It's the illegal war in Iraq which has made him a hated figure by many in his own party, despite him being the only leader of that party to win a general election in the last half century.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

Edit: And another one's gone. Damian Hinds has resigned as Security Minister.

Edit 2: The Science Minister George Freeman has also gone.

 

[Spamcan81]

This whole situation is proof, if proof is needed, that the Johnson thinks only about himself. He’s prepared to do untold damage to his party, Parliament and country just to remain in number 10.

 

[Typhoon]

This is getting rather ridiculous now. You'd think BJ would just throw the towel in and call it a day and announce he is resigning.

At the rate this is going, I am half expecting Carrie Symonds and their two children to leave number 10 next, while the blonde numpty remains inside.

It's almost like BJ is repeating Donald Trump's final days at the White House.

CJ

I'm half expecting them to be announced as new members of the cabinet.

Still, some younger Forum members will be able to contribute to the (still going) 'You know you are getting old ...' thread with recollections of July 2022 in thirty years or so.

A new government needs to commit to ensuring that this never happens again. Truss is out in Asia (Indonesia) at some conference (best place for her), how can anyone take her contributions seriously?

 

[Snow1964]

So now reached 50 resignations

…. and Boris still hasn’t understood message that he is not wanted as leader anymore

 

[32475]

If it hasn’t been mentioned before, it’s high time Boris ordered a Shepherds Hut just like his friend Dave.

 

[birchesgreen]

Everytime i refresh this page someone else resigns, today might be even more ridiculous than yesterday

 

[nw1]

Absolutely and i dearly hope they are ALL consigned to the back benches

Yes, time to "drain the swamp", so to speak. All the Johnson brown-nosers must disappear from government. Patel, Raab, Truss, and all the rest.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Just as long as the pro-restrictions lot are all barred from running.

 

[nw1]

hahahahahahahahaha - comedy gold. Corbyn was, is and always will be a crank. He was unfit to lead the Labour party and unfit for office. He is as big a clown as Johnson.

And of course is partly responsible for the Johnson nightmare of the past three years. Part of the reason we got Johnson as PM is that Corbyn wasn't exactly a great alternative.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think if they hold a general election now it'll make 1997 look like a good result for them.

That is why "older and wiser heads" in the Conservative Party, in the full knowledge of such a scenario, will ensure a General Election will not be an immediacy.

 

[baz962]

As long as Shapps goes , I'm happy.

 

[AlterEgo]

Guy Opperman, some pensions minister, has resigned.

 

[nw1]

He would, but this would be the perfect stage for him. He could announce that the "people have been betrayed by the elites", go full Trump, and fight the next election on exactly that. He wouldn't win, but the damage to the Tories would be tremendous. The Red Wall seats in particular could be swayed by populist arguments based on Brexit, while he would also appeal to the Rees-Mogg loving types in the South.

Not so sure now. I think even the most stupid people now realise that Hard Brexit was a device to massage Johnson's ego. As London mayor, IIRC he was pro-EU. He neither believes nor disbelieves in Brexit. Not even sure he believes in the Tory Party. He believes in just one thing. Boris Johnson.

I suspect once people realise they have been "had" by Johnson, they will no longer lend their support to him.

 

[The Ham]

Everytime i refresh this page someone else resigns, today might be even more ridiculous than yesterday

Mathematical is that even possible?!?

 

[nw1]

Suella Braverman has just told Peston on ITV that she will be running to be Tory leader but its not a resigning matter but will Boris sack her now

Braverman? No thanks. A stridently-pro-Brexit former Johnson loyalist, IIRC.

 

[jfollows]

Braverman? No thanks. A stridently-pro-Brexit former Johnson loyalist, IIRC.

She's also seriously dim, but that in itself doesn't put her in the minority in Boris's cabinet.

 

[birchesgreen]

Another one gone, mind you the junior ministers resigning is a bit boring after awhile. Are there many left?

 

[nw1]

I thought they'd tried that and failed last night when Graham Brady went to see Boris Johnson.

We know from the way the Brexit negotiations happened, and some of the decisions during Covid, that Boris Johnson only thinks of the short term. He'll be working to survive today and probably not even thinking about what might happen next week when the newly elected 1922 committee change the rules and hold a vote.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==


I'm not confusing the two things.

I understand that in the short term no general election is constitutionally necessary. But any new Conservative leader will come under pressure to hold one, as Prime Ministers who take up their position mid-term always do.

I would be surprised if, one way or another, we do not have a general election either later this year or next Spring.

When it happens (if it happens) will influence how well the Tories do, I suspect. If it happens very soon, e.g. September, the Tories will be in with a chance of winning with a new leader. In the spring, after what may be a difficult winter for many with fuel bills in particular, I suspect opinion of the government will be low whoever's leading it, and the incumbents would likely lose.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jul 2022 ==

Depending on who wins they may well look for an election if they think that some of the local Tory Party want their Boris loyalists out so that they don't have too many trouble makers.

Of course the risk is that too many of the Tory MP's get punished for being loyal to Boris for too long and get voted out.

Certainly probably will happen in Esher now, if Raab stands again next time.

Witham.. pipedream sadly. The kind of constituency that will never vote anything but Conservative, if its results are anything to go by. Suspect Patel will still be holding that in 2050.

 

[GS250]

Just as long as the pro-restrictions lot are all barred from running.

Exactly this.

I don't think any restrictions will be respected anyway. People are now seeing the economic consequences of restrictions.

As for the results of a possible election....not convinced Labour would romp home. Forget opinion polls. That's wishful thinking from some.

When it comes to it ...unless there is a stand out alternative, people curse, hold their nose and then vote Tory.

 

[HST274]

The minister Suella braverman who has just been on the radio sounds absolutely awful in terms of policies and ideas, bringing up wokeism and universities, while obviously being incredibly pro brexit and waffling on about the regulation burdens of the eu. In the end, of course, she failed to put into words any actual plan for post brexit Britain.
Boris is awful and self serving etc. But there are certainly more right wing horrible people who could be in charge.