When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[WatcherZero]

Health Minister Edward Argar has just resigned.

Reportedly the Whips have told Johnson all except 65 Conservative MP's have submitted letters of no-confidence or otherwise indicated they would vote against him in a fresh 1922 committee no-confidence motion, meaning he would lose 295-65.

 

[dgl]

Of course if the Queen really wanted to she could go round to number 10 with a ceremonial sword and get rid of him permanently, don't know how that would go down with the public though.

 

[Gloster]

Of course if the Queen really wanted to she could go round to number 10 with a ceremonial sword and get rid of him permanently, don't know how that would go down with the public though.

At the moment the attitude would probably be sympathy for the Queen having to go to such effort in her state of health. Johnson should show consideration for her and go to the palace.

 

[WatcherZero]

Surely all she has to do is say loudly so some Knights overhear "Will no one rid me of this turbulent Prime Minister"

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Of course if the Queen really wanted to she could go round to number 10 with a ceremonial sword and get rid of him permanently, don't know how that would go down with the public though.

Now that would be good for the history books

 

[Cloud Strife]

Health Minister Edward Argar has just resigned.

Reportedly the Whips have told Johnson all except 65 Conservative MP's have submitted letters of no-confidence or otherwise indicated they would vote against him in a fresh 1922 committee no-confidence motion, meaning he would lose 295-65.

295-65 is still a very dangerous position for the Tories. It means that he might have 20-30 of them willing to go into battle under his banner, which (combined with the inevitable collapse in the Tory vote) all but guarantees that they lose the next election.

Anything is possible right now, although as we've been saying all along, he has completely wrecked the Conservatives from within.

 

[johntea]

Avoid ITV at all costs right now, Matt Hancock has crawled out of the woodwork!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Suella Braverman has just told Peston on ITV that she will be running to be Tory leader but its not a resigning matter but will Boris sack her now

 

[brad465]

Suella Braverman has just told Peston on ITV that she will be running to be Tory leader but its not a resigning matter but will Boris sack her now

There are now a few Ministers at least who fit the terms of what Gove was sacked on, but haven't yet been sacked. He might wait till the morning to do it, or if this number genuinely shoots up, then he might dismiss everybody and try and rule like a King, given he has no ability to resign willingly (from what we've seen so far).

 

[DerekC]

Will Johnson invite Farage to join his new party, do you think?? Farage still has his supporters.

 

[brad465]

Apologies if this was already mentioned in this fast moving thread, but the Shrewsbury MP claims he was told to back Boris Johnson by three Curry's staff:

Shrewsbury MP says three Currys employees told him to 'stand by Boris'

Daniel Kawczynski has defended Boris Johnson, saying three Currys employees told him to stand by the embattled Prime Minister while he was buying a vacuum cleaner.

www.shropshirestar.com

The Shrewsbury and Atcham MP recalled the exchange while speaking to Colin Murray during his show on BBC Radio 5 Live on Tuesday night.
Mr Kawczynski was a guest on a night the first flurry of ministers, led by Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, resigned from the Government.
In a lively debate, Mr Murry quoted Theo Clarke as she quit as Trade Envoy to Kenya, who pinpointed the decision to promote Chris Pincher to Deputy Chief Whip as the main reason for her resignation.

He said: "When I was in Currys in Shrewsbury, on Saturday, buying a new vacuum cleaner, I had three employees in that building come up to me and say 'you've got to stand by Boris, you've got to back Boris'.

"I've never come across people coming up to me in an electrical store asking me to support any other Prime Minister that I've come across."
"So if three had come up to you and said don't back him and ask him to resign would you have done that based on three employees in Currys?", responded the presenter. "I mean come on. You're giving me poppycock."
Mr Kawczynski defended himself, adding: "That actually happened, that's not poppycock. I'm relaying the story"

After being asked if he was deflecting from the subject of Ms Clarke's resignation, the Shrewsbury MP replied: "I'm giving you a story that in my consistuency on Saturday when I was not performing my role as a Member of Parliament, but I happened to be in Currys in Shrewsbury buying a new vacuum cleaner, but people happened to recognise me as being the local MP, and they came up to me and they said 'please back Boris'. Now, that is the truth.
"Why were you so flabbergasted and angry about me relaying an incident that happened to me in my constituency?"
Mr Murray told him it was because he was talking about "three people who sold you a vacuum cleaner over a specific question about the reasons an MP has withdrawn her support for the Primer Minister".

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Will Johnson invite Farage to join his new party, do you think?? Farage still has his supporters.

Churchill used a lot of outsiders in his war cabinet but not sure whether that would be permitted now. He could of course ask any MP to take a position

 

[Gloster]

Apologies if this was already mentioned in this fast moving thread, but the Shrewsbury MP claims he was told to back Boris Johnson by three Curry's staff.

He must be the only person who has ever paid attention to advice given by Curry’s staff.

 

[Annetts key]

Churchill used a lot of outsiders in his war cabinet but not sure whether that would be permitted now. He could of course ask any MP to take a position

The PM can, if I remember correctly, appoint Lords as ministers. But I’m not sure about people from outside Parliament. They normally can only be appointed as special advisers.

 

[Shrop]

Apologies if this was already mentioned in this fast moving thread, but the Shrewsbury MP claims he was told to back Boris Johnson by three Curry's staff

We struggle in Shropshire with Danny K. He has often displayed far more interest in Saudi Arabia than he does in Shropshire, being known by some locally as the (dis)Honourable Member for Shrewsbury and Riyadh. Shrewsbury suffers with the blue rosette on a pig syndrome, ie people care little for the character of the MP, just what colour they represent. As for his reasoning for backing Boris, little would surprise me.

 

[WatcherZero]

Another resignation; Gareth Davies PPS at Health

Edit:

And another James Davies PPS at Health, said he announced his intention to resign to the whips this morning but stayed on to complete his parliamentary business today in support of his boss Ed Argar (whose also resigned)

 

[Whistler40145]

Is Boris Johnson the only member of the House of Commons who's exempt from having the Party Whip removed?

 

[AlterEgo]

The PM can, if I remember correctly, appoint Lords as ministers. But I’m not sure about people from outside Parliament. They normally can only be appointed as special advisers.

Jan Smuts was not a member of parliament but was in the cabinet. Exceptional times, though. Anyone can be appointed to the cabinet, in theory.

 

[Howardh]

Another resignation; Gareth Davies PPS at Health

Edit:

And another James Davies PPS at Health, said he announced his intention to resign to the whips this morning but stayed on to complete his parliamentary business today in support of his boss Ed Argar (whose also resigned)

Just gonna write it's after midnight and they are still resigning!

 

[WatcherZero]

Jan Smuts was not a member of parliament but was in the cabinet. Exceptional times, though. Anyone can be appointed to the cabinet, in theory.

I think he was in the Imperial War Cabinet, that was a seperate body to co-ordinate military affairs between the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Newfoundland, India and South Africa during WW1.

 

[MattA7]

Has a prime minister ever been removed from parliament by the queen (or past monarch) before?

Also does Borris have the authority to abolish the monarchy? Which would be a bit ironic given the queen has the authority to remove Him as prime minister.

 

[brad465]

Waking up later this morning is going to be interesting, seeing how many others have resigned/been sacked. A huge load of Parliamentary business, including Committee-related activity, has already had to be cancelled as a number of ministerial posts involved are now vacant.

 

[najaB]

Also does Borris have the authority to abolish the monarchy?

No. It would require an act of parliament, which would have to be signed into law by the monarch.

Edit: A little more reading tells me that if the monarch refused to give royal assent then the law would come into effect after six months.

Further edit: Apparently that six month limit applies in several Commonwealth Nations but not the UK.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

Under current Conservative party rules they cannot remove him as leader of the party.
However to ensure prime minister you have to command the confidence of the house, so if enough tory mps were to join with opposition parties and vote against him in a vote of no confidence then he would find it all but impossible to remain as prime minister.
The constitutional issues following this would be unprecedented as usually the Queen would then ask the outgoing PM who could command the confidence of the house.
I think it would take some prior maneuvering to sort out the what happens after he is gone in that situation.
The whole thing is an absolute mess, and so predictable when letting a mendacious self centred and entitled person like that become prime minister in the first place.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yes I believe the only way they could do it was if they kicked him out of the party for bringing into disrepute, that requires a 4 member governance committee drawn from 6 of his parties leaders (including himself) to refer him to an independent standards subcommittee for investigation, pretty lengthy process and 1922 committee likely faster.

 

[najaB]

It's pretty clear that he doesn't command the support of the majority of MPs so a the next few days (until recess) are ripe for a motion of no confidence to be debated in the house.

 

[WatcherZero]

Has a prime minister ever been removed from parliament by the queen (or past monarch) before?

Yes but last time was William IV in 1834, Lord Grey (Whig) resigned and the Tories couldnt command a majority so the King asked Lord Melbourne as the Whig with the next largest number of supporters to form a government. Melbournes minority government was pretty weak and had to pander to a lot of extreme lobbies forming an extremist government (Opposed Catholic Emancipation, opposed Repeal of the Corn Laws, and he personally advocated a return of slavery). The King sacked Melbourne for having an extremist government that endangered the state after four months and appointed Lord Peel (Conservative) but he only managed a minority government with Whig support for a couple of months before being forced to call and lose a General Election and Melbournes Whigs became a majority and the King was forced to make him PM again. Incidentally the Tamworth Manifesto that Peel wrote and lost the General Election on which accepted the 1832 Reform Act which his party previously opposed (boundary changes abolishing rotten boroughs and establishing seats that we would recognize today albeit with 2 MP's per seat, and nearly universal Male suffrage) and accepting slow but steady government/public reform and a honest judiciary became the founding doctrine of the modern Conservative Party.

 

[AlterEgo]

I think he was in the Imperial War Cabinet, that was a seperate body to co-ordinate military affairs between the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Newfoundland, India and South Africa during WW1.

Cabinet members of whatever ilk are still a prime ministerial appointment under advice to the Crown and there are no qualifying criteria at all.

If you want a more recent example, Nicky Morgan stood down as MP and remained a member of the cabinet completely outside of parliament, until her creation as a Baroness and a seat in the Lords.

Anyone can be a member of cabinet. Alec Douglas Home even had a brief period where he was in neither House of Parliament and was the Prime Minister!

 

[WatcherZero]

Nicky Morgan stood down as an MP on 12th Dec after announcing 5 months earlier she wasnt going to contest the election, Parliament was convened on the 17th December and was formally appointed a lord on 6th Jan. The Queen had already signed off her becoming a Lord before the general election but as you know you cant sit in the Commons and the Lords at the same time so the two weeks between was merely bureaucracy.

Alec Douglas Home is an interesting one, he was in the Lords when he became Prime Minister, four days after being elected leader of his party and the new PM he renounced his Earldom peerage and sought immediate election in a by-election 20 days later, during this gap Parliament was not in session and its return was delayed two weeks until after the seat was declared. Its unique but technically not wrong as when parliament is in recess or dissolved all ministers (including the PM) automatically retain their cabinet positions. This is the mechanism that makes it possible to still have a functioning government between a general election being called and the results being declared when MP's are legally no longer in office and are banned from stepping foot on the Parliamentary Estate or visiting their government offices to stop them abusing their access for electoral gain.

 

[DelayRepay]

There are now a few Ministers at least who fit the terms of what Gove was sacked on, but haven't yet been sacked. He might wait till the morning to do it, or if this number genuinely shoots up, then he might dismiss everybody and try and rule like a King, given he has no ability to resign willingly (from what we've seen so far).

Even a few days ago, I would have said the suggestion in bold was nonsense. But now, who knows? I honestly wouldn't put anything past him now.

Even if he loses a vote of confidence next week, I don't think he'll go. I hope the Labour Party are ready to fight a general election as it's looking increasingly likely we'll have one soon.