When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[Nicholas Lewis]

Briefings are being put out they will use this as an opportunity to run a slimmed down government. Of course, you lose the committed ‘pay roll’ juniors.

Good idea merge or abolish lots of departments and save a load of civil service jobs

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

He doesn't need PPS's to run government. He could save the country a few quid.

A slimmed down Government...apparently that is being suggested now (according to Guardian website)

 

[philosopher]

This could be an opportunity for him. Clear out the government, go with a handful of ministries and a very small government (say no more than 20-30), and then stare the Tories down by saying that he's setting a new course of government without useless career politicians. If he packed the government with people from outside Westminster, he could sail the "People's PM" ship and give himself a chance at survival.

It would be a high risk strategy, but he would effectively be telling the Tories that he'll run against them in the next election, which would do huge amounts of damage and ensure that they wouldn't win. With his defiant behaviour so far, it could just motivate enough of them to keep him around for fear of what happens next.

It's a far-fetched scenario and unlikely to happen, but then again, I thought earlier that he would be resigning by 10pm!

I suspect if Boris tried that, he would face a parliamentary vote of no confidence, with a large number of Tories voting with the opposition.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Remarkably Johnson-like in your ability to always answer a different question to the one asked

If you ever see a politician being pressed for an answer when being interviewed, you will note they have this particular attribute.

At the age of 77, I can well remember cultivating this skill in top level managerial meetings, much to the annoyance of those with a different view to the one that I held.

 

[kristiang85]

Stanley Johnson is over on GBN in two minutes. Could be interesting...

 

[Cloud Strife]

I suspect if Boris tried that, he would face a parliamentary vote of no confidence, with a large number of Tories voting with the opposition.

He would, but this would be the perfect stage for him. He could announce that the "people have been betrayed by the elites", go full Trump, and fight the next election on exactly that. He wouldn't win, but the damage to the Tories would be tremendous. The Red Wall seats in particular could be swayed by populist arguments based on Brexit, while he would also appeal to the Rees-Mogg loving types in the South.

Still, I suppose that giving him time until Monday is likely about finding a new PM rather than out of any like for him.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Stanley Johnson is over on GBN in two minutes. Could be interesting...

He is saying the usual things, not really worth watching.

 

[WatcherZero]

This could be an opportunity for him. Clear out the government, go with a handful of ministries and a very small government (say no more than 20-30), and then stare the Tories down by saying that he's setting a new course of government without useless career politicians. If he packed the government with people from outside Westminster, he could sail the "People's PM" ship and give himself a chance at survival.

It would be a high risk strategy, but he would effectively be telling the Tories that he'll run against them in the next election, which would do huge amounts of damage and ensure that they wouldn't win. With his defiant behaviour so far, it could just motivate enough of them to keep him around for fear of what happens next.

It's a far-fetched scenario and unlikely to happen, but then again, I thought earlier that he would be resigning by 10pm!

If he was popular and his party wasnt that might work, the problem is the polling on 5th July was 69% of the country want him to resign including 54% of Conservative voters.
He also claims the mandate was for national reforms to housing, economy and infrastructure, you cant have a radical country reforming legislative program with small government. Already all planned committee meetings on the legislative programme tomorrow have been cancelled as they dont have people to appear before the committees to present their legislation.

 

[DarloRich]

He would, but this would be the perfect stage for him. He could announce that the "people have been betrayed by the elites", go full Trump, and fight the next election on exactly that. He wouldn't win, but the damage to the Tories would be tremendous. The Red Wall seats in particular could be swayed by populist arguments based on Brexit, while he would also appeal to the Rees-Mogg loving types in the South

Are you suggesting he set up a new party?

 

[baz962]

Added 4 more resignations and Gove sacking, at the Department of Levelling only three of eight ministers are left and only one of them is an MP. Boris now had more resignations than Theresa May, the most of any PM ever and also the most ministerial resignations in one day ever. More than 1/3rd of front benchers have resigned and hes lost 75 of the people that voted they had confidence in him last month.

Cabinet ministers

• Rishi Sunak - Chancellor
• Sajid Javid -Health secretary
• Michael Gove - Housing and Communities, Levelling Up, Home Nations (Sacked for "saying he should go on TV")

Ministers

• Will Quince - minister for children and families
• Alex Chalk - solicitor general
• John Glen - Treasury minister
• Victoria Atkins - Justice minister
• Robin Walker - Education minister
• Jo Churchill - Defra minister
• Stuart Andrew - Housing minister
• Julia Lopez - Culture minister
• Lee Rowley - Business minister
• Alex Burghart - Education minister
• Neil O'Brien - Levelling up minister
• Kemi Badenoch - Local Government minister
• Mims Davies - Work and Pensions
• Rachel Maclean - Safeguarding Minister
• Mike Freer - Minister for Exports and Minister for Equalities

Ministerial aides

• Laura Trott - parliamentary private secretary (PPS) to the Transport secretary
• Jonathan Gullis - PPS to the Northern Ireland secretary
• Saqib Bhatti - PPS to the Health secretary
• Nicola Richards - PPS to the Department for Transport
• Virginia Crosbie - PPS at the Welsh office
• Felicity Buchan - PPS at the Business Department
• David Johnson - PPS at the Treasury
• Claire Coutinho - PPS in Education
• Selaine Saxby - PPS at the Treasury
• Duncan Baker - PPS Levelling Up Department
• Fay Jones - PPS House of Commons
• Craig Williams - PPS at the Treasury
• Mark Logan - PPS Northern Ireland
• Rachel Maclean - Safeguarding Minister
• Mark Fletcher - PPS Department for Business
• Sara Britcliffe - PPS Department for Education
• Ruth Edwards - PPS Scotland Office
• Peter Gibson - PPS Department for Trade
• James Sunderland - PPS DEFRA
• Jacob Young - PPS Levelling Up
• James Daly - PPS Work and Pensions
• Danny Kruger - PPS Levelling Up

Others

• Bim Afolami MP - vice-chair of the Conservative Party
• Theo Clarke MP - trade envoy to Kenya
• Andrew Murrison MP - trade envoy to Morocco
• David Daguid MP - trade envoy to Angola and Zambia
• David Mundell MP - trade envoy to New Zealand
• Robert Halfron MP - Chair education select committee: Letter of no-confidence
• Lee Anderson MP - Letter of no confidence
• Tom Hunt MP - Letter of no confidence
• Robert Jenrick MP - Letter of no confidence
• Kate Griffiths MP - Letter of no confidence
• Liam Fox MP - Letter of no confidence
• Dehenna Davison MP - Letter of no confidence

Boris has sent PPS James Duddridge out to say everythings fine and there will be tax cuts announced tommorow.

All those names and I have heard of five.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

All those names and I have heard of five.

exactly govt has become full of hangers on. This is a great move by BoJo to slim down govt and blow up the Tory party at the same time

 

[Cloud Strife]

Are you suggesting he set up a new party?

It's possible. Imagine that he's about to face a vote of confidence in the Commons, and he uses his speech to declare that he's not going to be pushed out against the will of 'his' electorate. He doesn't need much, it's enough to have one attention seeker in every constituency willing to put up the deposit.

The unthinkable scenario has a new Tory leader trying to defend against a populist Johnson who pulls a Trump-style THEY STOLE IT FROM ME drama llama act constantly. It could just work well enough to sabotage the Tories...

If he was popular and his party wasnt that might work, the problem is the polling on 5th July was 69% of the country want him to resign including 54% of Conservative voters.

That still leaves 46% of them that want him to stay. If we assume that the number is now 30%, it's still a not-insignificant number.

I'm saying this as someone who absolutely detests Johnson, by the way.

 

[gabrielhj07]

All those names and I have heard of five.

This will work to his advantage in pushing a 'slimmed down government' narrative.

 

[DarloRich]

All those names and I have heard of five.

Would it be easier to have a list of people still on his side? It seems my MP, Iain Stewart, is very much on Team Johnson

As for those in the PPS section above - check out their majorities and see how twitchy their backside are right now? They might get evicted from the gravy train

 

[kristiang85]

He is saying the usual things, not really worth watching.

Yeah, I switched back to BBC after about 5 minutes!

 

[WatcherZero]

Welsh Secretary Simon Hart just resigned, one of the Ministers to give Boris a resign before tonight or I will ultimatum.

 

[Cloud Strife]

This will work to his advantage in pushing a 'slimmed down government' narrative.

I hate to say this, I really hate to say this, but this could work very much in his favour. If he turns up tomorrow after having sacked half the cabinet and by getting rid of all the unpopular names, he's got four days to impose his agenda on the country. A few very high profile appointments from the world of business and sport, combined with a Trump-style 'with me or I'll fight you' challenge, and suddenly you've got a situation where a backbencher will have to decide whether or not they can survive a Trump-style attack at the next GE.

A cornered and wounded animal is dangerous, and Boris might decide that he has nothing to lose.

 

[philosopher]

Out of curiosity, could the queen sack Boris Johnson? I know the queen can only act on the advice of her ministers. However if I understand correctly, most of her ministers have told Boris to resign. So it could be argued that if she sacked Boris, she would still be acting on the advice of her ministers.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Yeah, I switched back to BBC after about 5 minutes!

You lasted that long? I found the interviewer more irritating than SJ, funnily enough.

Out of curiosity, could the queen sack Boris Johnson? I know the queen can only act on the advice of her ministers. However if I understand correctly, most of her ministers have told Boris to resign. So it could be argued that if she sacked Boris, she would still be acting on the advice of her ministers.

This would make a great documentary one day.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

exactly govt has become full of hangers on. This is a great move by BoJo to slim down govt and blow up the Tory party at the same time

Of course - a new policy that he's never espoused before, and doesn't need all those people who he appointed in the last three years.

That still leaves 46% of them that want him to stay.

It was 33% with 13% as don't knows

I'd not be shocked if he is following the Trump playbook. He has no loyalty to the Conservative Party - just to himself. Much as Trump to the Republicans

 

[Mikw]

A slimmed down Government...apparently that is being suggested now (according to Guardian website)

Raab and Dorries with many posts each most likely - that's not going to go well.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Simon Hart Minister for Wales resigned

Perhaps he should cut Wales, Scotland & NI full slack to run themselves and save even more MPs and civil servants

 

[Cloud Strife]

Out of curiosity, could the queen sack Boris Johnson? I know the queen can only act on the advice of her ministers. However if I understand correctly, most of her ministers have told Boris to resign. So it could be argued that if she sacked Boris, she would still be acting on the advice of her ministers.

From what I understand, the general idea is that the Queen appoints and dismisses the PM based on their ability to command a majority in the Commons. So yes, if he lost a vote of confidence in the House of Commons and then refused to resign, she could sack him, although it's believed that there should be someone to replace the PM in order for her to do it.

What I imagine would happen would be that he would lose a vote of confidence in the Commons, followed by another vote to confirm Parliament's choice of a new PM. This would then be communicated to the Palace by the Speaker, and he would be given the opportunity to resign. If he refused, then the Queen would dismiss him and appoint the new PM.

This actually seems like the most likely scenario now.

 

[WatcherZero]

Out of curiosity, could the queen sack Boris Johnson? I know the queen can only act on the advice of her ministers. However if I understand correctly, most of her ministers have told Boris to resign. So it could be argued that if she sacked Boris, she would still be acting on the advice of her ministers.

The Queen appoints Parliament, in theory if senior members of the house of commons and the Conservative Party went to her and said that Boris was unable to form a government then yes she would have to ask someone else to attempt to form one.
A vote of confidence could be called in the Commons to achieve that, though many Conservatives may be hesitant at the prospect of a snap general election. There could be a pact formed with Labour for a vote without a general election though not sure Labour would agree to it.

 

[Annetts key]

With cabinet minister Simon Hart resiging, and the sacking of Gove, does that get us to Boris loosing 44 ministers and aides? It’s getting difficult to keep count…

 

[Wivenswold]

Boris is going to need to hire some agency workers to fill the vacancies in Cabinet.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From what I understand, the general idea is that the Queen appoints and dismisses the PM based on their ability to command a majority in the Commons. So yes, if he lost a vote of confidence in the House of Commons and then refused to resign, she could sack him, although it's believed that there should be someone to replace the PM in order for her to do it.

What I imagine would happen would be that he would lose a vote of confidence in the Commons, followed by another vote to confirm Parliament's choice of a new PM. This would then be communicated to the Palace by the Speaker, and he would be given the opportunity to resign. If he refused, then the Queen would dismiss him and appoint the new PM.

This actually seems like the most likely scenario now.

his credibility would be destroyed if he ropes the Queen into this

 

[ABB125]

He's not the messiah; he's a very naughty boy!

I'm just wondering how today's events would look in a Monty Python film...

 

[RichJF]

With cabinet minister Simon Hart resiging, and the sacking of Gove, does that get us to Boris loosing 44 ministers and aides? It’s getting difficult to keep count…

Believe it's 44 after loyalist Edward Argar has just resigned.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The Queen appoints Parliament, in theory if senior members of the house of commons and the Conservative Party went to her and said that Boris was unable to form a government then yes she would have to ask someone else to attempt to form one.
A vote of confidence could be called in the Commons to achieve that, though many Conservatives may be hesitant at the prospect of a snap general election.

From what I understand, the Queen can act if it's clear that the PM no longer has the confidence of the House. So, it might be enough just to pass a motion that "The House has no confidence in Boris Johnson and nominates xx as Prime Minister". It wouldn't be a binding vote as such, it would be just enough for the Queen to sack Boris and appoint a new PM on the recommendation of the House.

As long as the new PM enjoys the confidence of the majority, there's no need for a snap GE.