SNP to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

[oldman]

True. Point?

In relation to population, Scotland has more pensioners (even if they don't live so long), but pays less income tax and NI, about the same VAT. (Also more tobacco duty!). This affects the funding of public services.

The underlying problem is relatively low economic growth, which is of course the fault of ..... [insert usual suspect].

 

[Bletchleyite]

True. Point?

That what matters is tax/NI income vs. pension spending, not the absolute number of either. I suspect that isn't far off similar.

 

[najaB]

In relation to population, Scotland has more pensioners (even if they don't live so long), but pays less income tax and NI, about the same VAT. (Also more tobacco duty!). This affects the funding of public services.

Scotland has a slightly higher percentage of people at pension age, but they do die off sooner so it's probably a wash. AFAIK, anyone earning c. £30K pa or above will pay more income tax than elsewhere in the UK.

 

[Enthusiast]

I'd expect the second. The rUK is unlikely to ever join Schengen (nor would I think it sensible for it to do so), whereas I don't think I'd rule out it rejoining the Single Market (i.e. EEA or EFTA) in the sort of timescale likely between a "yes" vote and actual independence and EU membership for Scotland.

So let me understand this. In order to facilitate an independent Scotland's ambition of becoming an EU member, the rUK must sign up to be some sort of associate member of an organisation which more than 53% of those who voted in the referendum chose to leave. Doesn't seem like a particularly good deal to me. What's in it for rUK? Northern Ireland has already been fed to the dogs in order to to appease the EU and there is now an internal border within the UK. Are you suggesting that England & Wales should follow NI into the feeding bowl?

Instead of even considering that such accommodations might be forthcoming, the UK government should make it absolutely clear to the Scots that they won't.

 

[najaB]

In order to facilitate an independent Scotland's ambition of becoming an EU member, the rUK must sign up to be some sort of associate member of an organisation which more than 53% of those who voted in the referendum chose to leave.

How about you reply to what @Bletchleyite actually wrote instead of your imagined version of what he wrote?

 

[Bletchleyite]

How about you reply to what @Bletchleyite actually wrote instead of your imagined version of what he wrote?

Well, quite. It's my view that, as the Brexiteers (who are mostly older) die off, England's view will turn back towards the EU. We are unlikely to rejoin for many years if at all, but EEA/EFTA membership would likely win a referendum now, and so I predict it's what will happen in due course. Possibly within 10 years, probably within 20.

 

[najaB]

We are unlikely to rejoin for many years if at all, but EEA/EFTA membership would likely win a referendum now, and so I predict it's what will happen in due course. Possibly within 10 years, probably within 20.

Given that that is exactly what many Leave voters thought they were voting for, I agree with that assessement.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Given that that is exactly what many Leave voters thought they were voting for, I agree with that assessement.

Indeed. A very common moderate Brexiteer view is "we voted to join the EEC in 1970-whatever-it-was, but we didn't vote for closer political integration". EEA or EFTA would be basically returning to what the 1970s referendum voted for.

As it was 52-48 even back then, and as the bad effects of Brexit have become quite apparent now, I would predict a very strong vote in favour of EEA/EFTA even were one held now. Boris won't, but a future Government may well do.

In 20 years, a huge chunk of the (mostly older) Brexiteers will be dead. It'll only go one way...

 

[AlterEgo]

Indeed. A very common moderate Brexiteer view is "we voted to join the EEC in 1970-whatever-it-was, but we didn't vote for closer political integration". EEA or EFTA would be basically returning to what the 1970s referendum voted for.

I will eat my hat if Britain doesn’t join at least the single market within 20 years.

 

[MotCO]

I will eat my hat if Britain doesn’t join at least the single market within 20 years.

It depends if it still exists in 20 years' time

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Some commentary seems to be of the opinion that if you want to get rid of Boris Johnson and the Tories at the next General Election then Nicola Sturgeon's plan to use the next Westminster General Election as a de facto referendum on independence (presuming the Supreme Court does not authorise a second referendum) is bad news as the Tories could say that Labour would rely on SNP votes which would lead to the break up of the UK like Cameron did with Miliband in 2015 do you think this could be an issue?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Some commentary seems to be of the opinion that if you want to get rid of Boris Johnson and the Tories at the next General Election then Nicola Sturgeon's plan to use the next Westminster General Election as a de facto referendum on independence (presuming the Supreme Court does not authorise a second referendum) is bad news as the Tories could say that Labour would rely on SNP votes which would lead to the break up of the UK like Cameron did with Miliband in 2015 do you think this could be an issue?

Hard to say. English voters don't really care very much about the Union, and I suspect Red Wall voters would have the attitude that if Scotland wants to go, then they should go.

The more problematic thing for Labour is the argument that they can't win a majority by themselves because of the SNP and others.

 

[Enthusiast]

How about you reply to what @Bletchleyite actually wrote instead of your imagined version of what he wrote?

Er… I thought I had:

“...whereas I don't think I'd rule out it [rUK] rejoining the Single Market (i.e. EEA or EFTA)”

There was no timescale mentioned in the original post. That has only been explained in Bletchleyite’s later post. I assumed it was being suggested that rUK rejoined the Single Market so as to avoid the hard border between England and Scotland that the EU would inevitably insist on should Scotland rejoin as an independent nation.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Er… I thought I had:

“...whereas I don't think I'd rule out it [rUK] rejoining the Single Market (i.e. EEA or EFTA)”

There was no timescale mentioned in the original post. That has only been explained in Bletchleyite’s later post. I assumed it was being suggested that rUK rejoined the Single Market so as to avoid the hard border between England and Scotland that the EU would inevitably insist on should Scotland rejoin as an independent nation.

Sorry for not being clear. No, my suggestion wasn't that it would do it for Scotland, but that it will happen at some point anyway. Not under Boris Johnson, but possibly under a forthcoming Labour government.

 

[najaB]

Hard to say. English voters don't really care very much about the Union, and I suspect Red Wall voters would have the attitude that if Scotland wants to go, then they should go.

I don't think it's fair to say that majority of English voters don't care about the Union as much as it is that they don't understand what the Union actually is. I'm sure that a lot of people think that the talk about breaking/maintaining the Union is all about Northern Ireland. Certainly, as a child growing up in England in the 1980s Scotland was "that weird bit up north where the red-headed people live" and not much more than that.

 

[Wynd]

Seriously - 5 million Scots (not all of who pay tax) are subsidising the pensioners of England's 50 million population; More likely the exact opposite is true, given that public spending per head is higher in Scotland than the rest of the UK.



The liability has indeed been incurred by the UK, which includes Scotland, and has been, and will until the Last Day of Union, be paid by the UK Government, to all the UK including Scotland. After independence, all obligations from the rest of the UK to Scotland cease - That is what being independent means !



And also of course more, far far more, taxpayers in England than Scotland.

I have seen data showing that, as perverse as it may seem to some, because Scottish citizens die considerably sooner than their counterparts, and because Scotland is the most productive part of the UK outside of London/South East, you can say there is a subsidy.

Consider a Scottish worker who works from 16-65, draws 10 years of pension and dies. 49 years paying in, 10 paying out.
Take a comparable worker in RUK, similar working life, and provided they are not in London/South east, they generate less tax, and live longer, and therefore cost more.

Its also worth noting that Scotland is currently a net contributor in NIC's, in that it generates 12% of UK NIC's and takes 9% of UK NIC's.

This of course gets washed out in the mess that is GERS, but if we want to focus on one single point...

In terms of Pensions post indy, having worked a large proportion of my life as a citizen of the UK, and potentially working the rest in an independent country, im fully expecting a comparable pension arrangement to Ireland where a negotiated settlement is agreed on a long term basis.

 

[MotCO]

and because Scotland is the most productive part of the UK outside of London/South East, you can say there is a subsidy.

I hadn't expected that. A lot of Scotland is presumably agricultural, and industry concentrated in the lowlands and maybe in Aberdeen and the coast. Not too disimilar to England, so how come Scotland is more productive? What is your source? Are you taking GDP / population? I had thought (maybe unfairly, and without any data to back it up) that there were more unemployed in Scotland per head of population, so, if that was the case, that would reduce its productivity.

 

[Wynd]

I hadn't expected that. A lot of Scotland is presumably agricultural, and industry concentrated in the lowlands and maybe in Aberdeen and the coast. Not too disimilar to England, so how come Scotland is more productive? What is your source? Are you taking GDP / population? I had thought (maybe unfairly, and without any data to back it up) that there were more unemployed in Scotland per head of population, so, if that was the case, that would reduce its productivity.

The myth of Scotland being a land of workshy subsidy junkies with drinking problems is in truth just propaganda to keep Scotland's citizens thinking they couldn't run their own country. The precise opposite is the truth. The hardworking, Calvinistic, penny pincher who wants to get on in life and works for fun is much closer to an accurate picture of the "average Scottish citizen"

Its a lot like the Daily Mail using the benefit claimants/immigrants headlines to keep the middle classes hating the poor whilst the upper class walk away with the spoils.

Per above, perceptions and realities of Scotland are at variance.

 

[najaB]

A lot of Scotland is presumably agricultural, and industry concentrated in the lowlands and maybe in Aberdeen and the coast. Not too disimilar to England, so how come Scotland is more productive?

There's a surprising amount of tech and creative industry companies based in Scotland too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What's the definition of "productivity" here? GDP per head?

Edit: it appears to be output (what output?) per hour worked. Which might be skewed by farming, as that can produce quite high outputs with very high automation? Otherwise I find it quite surprising that the North West is lower when you have places like Manchester in the mix.

 

[najaB]

What's the definition of "productivity" here? GDP per head?

That's one measure: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1168072/uk-gdp-per-head-by-region/

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's one measure: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1168072/uk-gdp-per-head-by-region/

Does to be fair give you a similar shaped chart.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2022 ==

Its also worth noting that Scotland is currently a net contributor in NIC's, in that it generates 12% of UK NIC's and takes 9% of UK NIC's.

If that's the case then if there was no settlement you'd be better off, as a settlement should have Scotland paying England!

Remember NICs are not contributory, they are spent now. The "sort of contributory" nature is just based on the principle of "if you pay for today's pensioners, tomorrow's workers pay for yours". There is no pot to split.

 

[Wynd]

Does to be fair give you a similar shaped chart.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2022 ==



If that's the case then if there was no settlement you'd be better off, as a settlement should have Scotland paying England!

Remember NICs are not contributory, they are spent now. The "sort of contributory" nature is just based on the principle of "if you pay for today's pensioners, tomorrow's workers pay for yours". There is no pot to split.

Is this another instance of you disliking the message so much, or it being against your viewpoint that you seek to attack the credibility of the ONS/Bloomberg, rather than accept the facts?

Its getting pretty tiring hearing about a pot that everyone accepts is non existent. Could you perhaps stop doing that as its as patronizing as it is incessant? Either way, it means that there is a 3% differential, that could be given to current Scottish domiciled pensioners if Scotland was controlling its own pensions/NICs, just as a hypothetical.

This pensions argument is a red herring. The UK has a number of reciprocal pension agreements with other countries, why wouldn't it have one with Scotland?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2022 ==

What's the definition of "productivity" here? GDP per head?

Edit: it appears to be output (what output?) per hour worked. Which might be skewed by farming, as that can produce quite high outputs with very high automation? Otherwise I find it quite surprising that the North West is lower when you have places like Manchester in the mix.

Farming is 1% of the Scottish economy. Do you want to try again or will you accept the facts as they are?#

And anyway, why do you pick farming? Why is there a widely held view that Scotland is just farming?

 

[duncanp]

Is this another instance of you disliking the message so much, or it being against your viewpoint that you seek to attack the credibility of the ONS/Bloomberg, rather than accept the facts?

Its getting pretty tiring hearing about a pot that everyone accepts is non existent. Could you perhaps stop doing that as its as patronizing as it is incessant? Either way, it means that there is a 3% differential, that could be given to current Scottish domiciled pensioners if Scotland was controlling its own pensions/NICs, just as a hypothetical.

This pensions argument is a red herring. The UK has a number of reciprocal pension agreements with other countries, why wouldn't it have one with Scotland?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jul 2022 ==



Farming is 1% of the Scottish economy. Do you want to try again or will you accept the facts as they are?

If everyone accepts that there is no pension pot then it should be a simple matter of the Scottish government paying the pensions of people who are domiciled in Scotand, and the UK government paying the pensions of people who are domiciled in England, Wales or Northern Ireland.

Someone may, of course, decide to move from Scotland to England after retirement. In that case the UK government would take over responsibility for payment of the pension, but in return would get the benefit of the income tax (and other taxes such as VAT) which that person would pay. The flip side of the coin would be that the Scottish government loses the tax revenue, but is relieved of the responsibility of paying the pension.

The same arrangement would apply to people moving to Scotland from the UK.

It is not just pensions that you have to consider, it is things like the right to use the NHS and other public services.

The UK does have reciprocal arrangements with other countries, but the usual arrangement is that UK citizens have the right to use those services on the same terms as citizens of that countries. This may mean that UK citizens have to pay fees to use a service (such as seeing a GP in France (€25)) that would be free in the UK.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If everyone accepts that there is no pension pot then it should be a simple matter of the Scottish government paying the pensions of people who are domiciled in Scotand, and the UK government paying the pensions of people who are domiciled in England, Wales or Northern Ireland.

Yep, exactly this. It is indeed an agreement, but it doesn't require any capital to go either way.

The alternative is that Scotland pays the pensions of Scottish citizens and rUK pays the pensions of rUK citizens, though something would need to deal with how it works for the potentially very large number of dual citizens there would be at breakup.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

and because Scotland is the most productive part of the UK outside of London/South East, you can say there is a subsidy.

Might I suggest that you need to check more carefully what the stats you quote are measuring before jumping to conclusions about them. I've annotated the figure to highlight the rather obvious problems:



It's measuring relative productivity per hour. Before you can figure out whether that means Scotland is generating more wealth per person than the rest of the UK, you have to multiply that by the average numbers of hours worked, and the % of the population who are actually working. (I don't know how doing that would impact the results but it's bound to have some impact).

The chart also compares to the median region, not the mean GDP. That will be distorting the results because the two regions of London and the SouthEast are both hugely more productive than the other regions - and they will cause the mean to be higher than the median. Even worse, the regions are not weighted by population. The regions listed below Scotland in the chart are, on the whole much smaller than the two regions above Scotland (London and the SouthEast). Once you take those corrections, into account, it's pretty clear that the bar chart will be over-egging the actual productivity of Scotland. I don't know what the total production per head is in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK, but it is simply not possible from that chart to deduce that either the productivity or the total production per head in Scotland is higher than the UK average.

(I'm not by the way trying to knock either the chart or Scotland. The purpose of the chart appears to be to show how much more wealth per hour worked is generated in London compared to anywhere else, and it shows that very well. The chart was rather clearly not designed to show you anything about how Scotland compares to the rest of the UK, which is why you can't reasonably deduce anything meaningful about Scotland from it).

The myth of Scotland being a land of workshy subsidy junkies with drinking problems is in truth just propaganda to keep Scotland's citizens thinking they couldn't run their own country.

I don't know where you get that myth from, as I've never heard it before. But the fact is that Scotland does receive a considerable net subsidy in UK Government expenditure, and if Scotland loses that subsidy as a result of becoming independent, then EITHER the Scottish Government will have to oversee a massive cut in services OR there will have to be massive tax rises to make up the gap.

 

[D6130]

But the fact is that Scotland does receive a considerable net subsidy in UK Government expenditure, and if Scotland loses that subsidy as a result of becoming independent, then EITHER the Scottish Government will have to oversee a massive cut in services OR there will have to be massive tax rises.

.....or perhaps Scotland will start selling their surplus electricity to England, which I believe is currently donated free of charge via the interconnector?

 

[GusB]

don't know where you get that myth from, as I've never heard it before. But the fact is that Scotland does receive a considerable net subsidy in UK Government expenditure, and if Scotland loses that subsidy as a result of becoming independent, then EITHER the Scottish Government will have to oversee a massive cut in services OR there will have to be massive tax rises to make up the gap.

As you're so quick to demand that everyone else supplies facts and figures, please provide the source that backs up your claim about Scotland receiving a net subsidy.

 

[Wynd]

The fact, uncomfortable tho they may be to some, is that Scotland would be in a negotiation with RUK, and pensions would form part of that negotiation.

That is, like it or not, the way it would work.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The fact, uncomfortable tho they may be to some, is that Scotland would be in a negotiation with RUK, and pensions would form part of that negotiation.

That is, like it or not, the way it would work.

I'm sure it would, however as an English voter I would want England to take a strong position in England's favour in any such negotiations and not concede to unreasonable demands.