SNP to launch fresh Scottish independence campaign

[duncanp]

I hope the same principles that I outlined earlier

Thanks, although the pessimist in me suspects we'll end up doing that anyway and learn none of the lessons. I live in hope!

If a future UK government does agree to a second Scottish independence referendum, I hope they adopt the principles I outlined earlier.

No doubt Nicola Sturgeon will huff and puff, but she can't object as she was in favour of a "people's vote" to confirm the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Thanks, although the pessimist in me suspects we'll end up doing that anyway and learn none of the lessons. I live in hope!

We almost certainly won't. It's so much easier just to re-do a yes/no vote than it would be to take the idea of independence seriously, considering what that actually means.

but she can't object

She will alright! She's as two-faced as any other politician.

 

[duncanp]

She will alright! She's as two-faced as any other politician.

The worst thing you can do to Nicola Sturgeon is deprive her of a grievance.

 

[gabrielhj07]

The worst thing you can do to Nicola Sturgeon is deprive her of a grievance.

General rule of thumb for politics.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

How would the electorate communicate which terms they wanted to be renegotiated ?

I imagine the Scottish Government would have a good sense of that from the tone of the debate during the referendum, as well as from opinion polls and things like focus groups. There would also likely be input from opposition parties, business groups, etc. on what things are most concerning to them. In the event of a 'Renegotiate' vote, the Scottish Government would, assuming it was still SNP-run, have a very strong incentive to address voter's main concerns, so they get an 'Accept' vote next time, so I'm pretty sure they'd be paying a lot of attention to what issues have come up.

 

[Wynd]

The worst thing you can do to Nicola Sturgeon is deprive her of a grievance.

Sounds like a good argument to get a S30 order in place then isnt it?

Grievance; Scotland isn't a democracy?

Solution; Here's a S30 off you go and have your vote.

Simple.

 

[Berliner]

The breaking news now is that the proposed date for the second referendum is 19th October 2023. The proposed question will be "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Finally, something to work towards!

 

[Simon11]

Hmm, with that type of question being asked then I can easily see people voting yes of course. I presume there will not be any follow up questions or context, as to what that really looks like? Could be taking the Scottish people down the slippery slope just like we had with Brexit!

Considering the mess the Scottish Government are and have been making around covid and railways, what have they actually done well at?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Isn't that the exact same question as last time?

 

[Simon11]

Isn't that the exact same question as last time?

You are right!

The referendum question in 2014 was, "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour.

 

[Berliner]

Hmm, with that type of question being asked then I can easily see people voting yes of course. I presume there will not be any follow up questions or context, as to what that really looks like? Could be taking the Scottish people down the slippery slope just like we had with Brexit!

Considering the mess the Scottish Government are and have been making around covid and railways, what have they actually done well at?

The difference is of course the Scottish Government will, like last time, release in-depth papers as to what their plans are should they win the vote, so people will be informed before making a choice. The No side, I assume, will just say they want things to remain as is. It would be up to other parties to release their manifestos in time for an elction, outlining their plans on how to run Scotland following a successful Yes vote.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The difference is of course the Scottish Government will, like last time, release in-depth papers as to what their plans are should they win the vote, so people will be informed before making a choice. The No side, I assume, will just say they want things to remain as is. It would be up to other parties to release their manifestos in time for an elction, outlining their plans on how to run Scotland following a successful Yes vote.

There is a third way, though, the so-called "devo max", i.e. Scotland getting more independent powers e.g. tax-setting. That should be offered in some form too.

 

[Berliner]

There is a third way, though, the so-called "devo max", i.e. Scotland getting more independent powers e.g. tax-setting. That should be offered in some form too.

None of the unionist parties are even entertaining the idea of a second vote, so they appear to be pretty quiet on what they actually want to offer, due to a lack of any material from their side, one must assume they just want the status quo to continue. As usual, they prefer to just moan about things being so bad, but come up with zero solutions of their own, other than, of course, "Independence bad"!

The Tories are apparently just going to ignore the whole thing and have decided the line is that it's a "pretend referendum".

How patronising towards the people of Scotland. This is our government, who won our election, who is proposing this vote. Their contempt for Holyrood is clear to see.

 

[Runningaround]

I wish we could have had more than one BREXIT vote until I got the result I wanted - remain.

You did or those 18 and over had a choice in the 70's. The vote to join didn't stop another vote 40 years later or from parties changing there mind.
Should there be ''you choose now so lump it for the next 200 years'' clause in all referendums?

 

[westv]

You did or those 18 and over had a choice in the 70's. The vote to join didn't stop another vote 40 years later or from parties changing there mind.
Should there be ''you choose now so lump it for the next 200 years'' clause in all referendums?

40 years isn't the same as 8 years.

 

[Berliner]

You did or those 18 and over had a choice in the 70's. The vote to join didn't stop another vote 40 years later or from parties changing there mind.
Should there be ''you choose now so lump it for the next 200 years'' clause in all referendums?

There is also nothing stopping any party from running on a second EU referendum, winning, and then holding that vote. We just happen to have an anti-EU government in place right now. It doesn't help that none of the English-run parties want a second vote mind you, but that's up to the members to influence their decisions and policies.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jun 2022 ==

40 years isn't the same as 8 years.

Why are people fixated on the time scale? By the time this comes to fruition it will have been over 9 years since the first vote, nearly a decade.

SNP and Greens want independence and between them have either come out top in every election or combined to create a majority in an election, since 2014. The policy is still front and center of Scottish politics, why can't it be voted on again, exactly?

 

[duncanp]

You did or those 18 and over had a choice in the 70's. The vote to join didn't stop another vote 40 years later or from parties changing there mind.
Should there be ''you choose now so lump it for the next 200 years'' clause in all referendums?

The vote in 1975 was organised by the Labour government in order to confirm the decision of the previous Conservative government to join the then E.E.C. in 1973 without consulting the people beforehand.

From what I can see from recent polls, opinion in Scotland is split fairly evenly on whether to have another referendum in the first place, and how people would vote if another referendum were to be held.

So it is by no means certain that Nicola Sturgeon would get the result she wants.

Perhaps the reason she is so keen to hold a referendum on 19th October 2023 is that she wants it to happen whilst the Conservatives, and Boris Johnson in particular, are still in office.

She knows that the unpopularity of the Conservatives in Scotland is one thing that swings opinion in her favour, and if the next UK general election results in a minority government headed by Sir Keir Starmer, then support for independence in Scotland may decline, especially if a new (UK) government decides to strengthen ties with the E.U..

 

[Red Onion]

It’ll still be a no from me. I am in no way opposed to independence and there’s a part of me that wants it but, like the last time, I don’t think the campaign will do anything to convince me. There were far too many unanswered questions the last time and sadly I feel this will be much the same, they spent far too long on the anti-Westminster rhetoric and this campaign seems to be going the same way. Convince me otherwise and I could swing my answer!

Plus I also think we need new people to lead us into it, folk with a semblance of competence. This lot can’t even build a ferry in a shipyard that they own for a ferry company that they own so I dread to think what an absolute mess they’d make of taking a country into independence.

I want to vote yes but I am so far from convinced that I don’t think it’ll be something I do.

 

[El Blanco]

The difference is of course the Scottish Government will, like last time, release in-depth papers as to what their plans are should they win the vote, so people will be informed before making a choice. The No side, I assume, will just say they want things to remain as is. It would be up to other parties to release their manifestos in time for an elction, outlining their plans on how to run Scotland following a successful Yes vote.

Challenge for the SNP is that the previous White Paper contained a lot of speculation that didn’t bear fruit (oil price projections), inaccurate costings (the proposed costs of setting up all the instruments of State turned out to be less than they spent on setting up one devolved benefit) and other things which were economical with the truth (assurances received from the EU regarding future membership).

I’d hazard a guess that even if the Unionist side agreed to a referendum (they won’t) then they would likely insist on a second vote on the settlement.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’d hazard a guess that even if the Unionist side agreed to a referendum (they won’t) then they would likely insist on a second vote on the settlement.

As per Brexit this is a genuinely good idea. Vote again once you know what it actually will look like.

 

[Berliner]

It’ll still be a no from me. I am in no way opposed to independence and there’s a part of me that wants it but, like the last time, I don’t think the campaign will do anything to convince me. There were far too many unanswered questions the last time and sadly I feel this will be much the same, they spent far too long on the anti-Westminster rhetoric and this campaign seems to be going the same way. Convince me otherwise and I could swing my answer!

Plus I also think we need new people to lead us into it, folk with a semblance of competence. This lot can’t even build a ferry in a shipyard that they own for a ferry company that they own so I dread to think what an absolute mess they’d make of taking a country into independence.

I want to vote yes but I am so far from convinced that I don’t think it’ll be something I do.

You realise that voting Yes would mean that the SNP would likely die a death and we would have a realignment of all parties in Scotland? I don't particularly like the SNP or Sturgeon and I hope to God she is kept well away from the official campaign, but I see them merely as a vehicle to get independence. Ater that I'd be more likely to vote for a Lib Dem style party, but there is no way in hell I'll vote for them in their current Unionist form. The SNP are merely one group of people pushing for independence, they alone won't form an independent Scotland, and nor should they. the major problem with Brexit was the Tories owned it and refused to accept a consensus or get anyone other than Tories around the table. I can't see the SNP doing that. They will very quickly need to get all walks of life around the table to forge a way forward after independence. The problem we have in Scotland is the unionist parties won't even contemplate independence so refuse to come up with how they would run the country, so we are stuck with only the SNPs vision. I am willing to look beyond that and understand that in the future there will be an open playing field come the first Scottish General Election. The parties will simply have to come up with their own visions and there will likely be better ones out there than what the SNP propose if they even decide to stick together. it's a party made up of quite diverse opinions who simply unite under one main ideal.

 

[westv]

You are right!

The referendum question in 2014 was, "Should Scotland be an independent country?", which voters answered with "Yes" or "No". The "No" side won with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour.

I guess the difference is the UK has left a political and economic union so the SNP are asking Scotland to leave an economic and political union because they weren't happy that the UK left a political and economic union.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I guess the difference is the UK has left a political and economic union so the SNP are asking Scotland to leave an economic and political union because they weren't happy that the UK left a political and economic union.

I don't see why it's entirely far-fetched to suggest that one of those Unions may be considered better for Scotland than the other, and at the moment it is an either-or.

 

[Red Onion]

You realise that voting Yes would mean that the SNP would likely die a death and we would have a realignment of all parties in Scotland? I don't particularly like the SNP or Sturgeon and I hope to God she is kept well away from the official campaign, but I see them merely as a vehicle to get independence. Ater that I'd be more likely to vote for a Lib Dem style party, but there is no way in hell I'll vote for them in their current Unionist form. The SNP are merely one group of people pushing for independence, they alone won't form an independent Scotland, and nor should they. the major problem with Brexit was the Tories owned it and refused to accept a consensus or get anyone other than Tories around the table. I can't see the SNP doing that. They will very quickly need to get all walks of life around the table to forge a way forward after independence. The problem we have in Scotland is the unionist parties won't even contemplate independence so refuse to come up with how they would run the country, so we are stuck with only the SNPs vision. I am willing to look beyond that and understand that in the future there will be an open playing field come the first Scottish General Election. The parties will simply have to come up with their own visions and there will likely be better ones out there than what the SNP propose if they even decide to stick together. it's a party made up of quite diverse opinions who simply unite under one main ideal.

Oh absolutely, I know they’d cease to exist. My fear is that it’s them that have to take us into independence and start everything and given how much of a mess they make of almost everything they touch then I can’t go with them just now. Get new, competent, leadership then I’m more likely to go. It’s too much of a gamble for our future just now with them in charge!

 

[duncanp]

I don't see why it's entirely far-fetched to suggest that one of those Unions may be considered better for Scotland than the other, and at the moment it is an either-or.

What the voters of Scotland will have to decide, one way or the other is :-

Do you wish Scotland to remain inside the UK (and therefore outside the EU) or do you wish Scotland to leave the UK (and potentially rejoin the EU at some date in the future).

Even if a referendum is held on 19th October 2023 and the resulting vote is Yes for independence, the consequent negotiations with the UK government are unlikely to be concluded before the next UK general election in 2024, and after that legislation will need to be passed at Westminster and Holyrood.

We saw how the Brexit negotiations took over three years, and any potential Scottish independence settlement is likely to take just as long, depending on how long it takes the UK and Scottish governments to come to an agreement over the division of assets and liabilities (eg pensions and the national debt)

 

[najaB]

It’ll still be a no from me. I am in no way opposed to independence and there’s a part of me that wants it but, like the last time, I don’t think the campaign will do anything to convince me. There were far too many unanswered questions the last time and sadly I feel this will be much the same, they spent far too long on the anti-Westminster rhetoric and this campaign seems to be going the same way.

At the moment it's still a "No" from me as well, though I could be convinced otherwise. I need to see the detailed planning.

 

[Falcon1200]

The proposed question will be "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

Surely, in the interests of fairness, this time round the positive response 'Yes' should be applied to 'Should Scotland remain in the Union' ?

This is our government, who won our election

The only party with independence as their primary, if not sole, reason for existing failed, despite the best efforts of Brexit, Covid, Boris etc to win either a majority of seats or votes in the last Scottish Government election. People desperate for Independence as their first priority voted SNP, not Green.

Why are people fixated on the time scale?

Because certain SNP figures declared Indyref 1 to be a once in a generation opportunity, clearly they forgot to add 'if we win'. A generation is a bit more than 8 or 10 years.

Anyway, Nicola's illegal Pretendy Referendy is irrelevant to me because I'm washing my hair on October 19th next year.....

We saw how the Brexit negotiations took over three years, and any potential Scottish independence settlement is likely to take just as long, depending on how long it takes the UK and Scottish governments to come to an agreement over the division of assets and liabilities (eg pensions and the national debt)

That is assuming agreement can ever be reached, given things like the SNP's lunatic assertion that the UK will continue paying Scots' pensions post-independence. Separation after 300 years of common history will make Brexit look like the simplest thing ever. And Scotland will not be in a position to dictate terms.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

That is assuming agreement can ever be reached, given things like the SNP's lunatic assertion that the UK will continue paying Scots' pensions post-independence. Separation after 300 years of common history will make Brexit look like the simplest thing ever. And Scotland will not be in a position to dictate terms.....

It's not impossible, though. Czechoslovakia managed a reasonably amicable divorce into Czechia and Slovakia.

 

[duncanp]

It's not impossible, though. Czechoslovakia managed a reasonably amicable divorce into Czechia and Slovakia.

Anyone who has been through a divorce will appreciate that whether the divorce is amicable or acrimonious depends on the willingness of both parties to come to an agreement.

This in turn depends on both parties being fair and reasonable over the division of common assets and liabilities.

The SNP are labouring under the delusion that the UK government will be paying the state pension of Scottish people after independence. They will also have to accept liability for a fair proportion of the UK national debt.

All these issues can resolved by independent arbitration, if both parties are willing to accept the outcome of the arbitration.

But if the SNP think they can present the UK government with a shopping list of demands, and that the UK government is going to roll over meekly and accept those demands, they are living in cloud cuckoo land.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately the only reason she wants to go directly to the supreme court will be because she was unable to persuade her party political Advocate to certify the bill as compliant with the terms of the Scotland Acts.
Otherwise she would have proceeded directly to the referendum bill.

If even a handpicked-by-the-SNP lawyer doesn't agree that she can do what she wants..... not a chance in hell the Supreme Court will.

I don't think anyone can sensibly claim that a referendum on the Union of Scotland and England does not relate to the Union of Scotland and England.