Comment piece in Passenger Transport - "The railway risks becoming irrelevant"

[Goldfish62]

I agree, but have made a slight correction, as I think that the closures and cutbacks will be somewhat greater than most people on this forum would like/envisage. For example, it would be optimistic for the Settle and Carlisle line still to be open in 2030.

I certainly do. That's an increasingly strategically important line for freight, and freight by rail is most certainly not going to become irrelevant.

What I do see is gradually increasing amounts of timetabled bustitution on some secondary lines, with the occasional parliamentary service so that formal closure proceedings are not required.

 

[yorksrob]

Rail is ideal for serving large flows, intercity or commuting into bigger centres. When the passenger numbers are there it is by far the most efficient and cost-effective option. Rail is less good at sparsely used rural routes, from an economic point of view - the line to Whitby for example sees 6 trains per day, and Whitby only gets ~500 passengers per day, both arriving and departing. So each train has, on average, 41 passengers. The subsidy for those journeys must be astronomical, somewhat more than 28p per mile for a start.

It is however very useful for getting the crowds to where they want to be. I'm sure that if the route had a decent timetable that was actually attractive to leisure travelers, it would gain a lot more passengers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I certainly do. That's an increasingly strategically important line for freight, and freight by rail is most certainly not going to become irrelevant.

What I do see is gradually increasing amounts of timetabled bustitution on some secondary lines, with the occasional parliamentary service so that formal closure proceedings are not required.

I would be surprised to see even that, but there will be thinning and - I am confident of this - universal DOO. If I was a guard I would be very worried. I would also expect no ticket offices at all, and possibly - and I know this will be controversial - increased use of e-tickets, contactless etc, possibly to the point of it not being permitted to board at a local minor station without having purchased in advance using one's own device.

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It is however very useful for getting the crowds to where they want to be. I'm sure that if the route had a decent timetable that was actually attractive to leisure travelers, it would gain a lot more passengers.

Probably not enough to pay though. I think this was a case of closing the wrong line - York to Whitby would probably have done better.

 

[daodao]

That's an increasingly strategically important line for freight, and freight by rail is most certainly not going to become irrelevant.

Since the demise of coal, there is now minimal through freight traffic on the Settle and Carlisle line. Closure of the line north of Horton would have little effect on freight other than removing rail access to the Gypsum plant at Newbiggin.

 

[yorksrob]

Probably not enough to pay though. I think this was a case of closing the wrong line - York to Whitby would probably have done better.

True, but then most railways don't in pure farebox terms.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Since the demise of coal, there is now minimal through freight traffic on the Settle and Carlisle line. Closure of the line north of Horton would have little effect on freight other than removing rail access to the Gypsum plant at Newbiggin.

Too big a political pawn. The Conwy Valley south of Betws (dressed up as a frequency increase) and the Far North, perhaps.

 

[LowLevel]

I would be surprised to see even that, but there will be thinning and - I am confident of this - universal DOO. If I was a guard I would be very worried.

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Probably not enough to pay though. I think this was a case of closing the wrong line - York to Whitby would probably have done better.

I don't see why.

The DfT have gone out of their way to renegotiate our guards' contracts this year with longer notice periods and Sundays inside to put them in line with drivers. I agree that metro services could be an easy target, but I doubt your guard on regional or intercity services has much to worry about as long as the trains are still operating.

Providing a guard on a half hourly or hourly regional train where they provide all of the staff contact and functions is nowhere near the numbers involved in providing them on say 10 metro trains an hour.

 

[The Planner]

Since the demise of coal, there is now minimal through freight traffic on the Settle and Carlisle line. Closure of the line north of Horton would have little effect on freight other than removing rail access to the Gypsum plant at Newbiggin.

The S&C won't close, its already being looked at as a strategic piece of the jigsaw post HS2.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

The S&C won't close, its already being looked at as a strategic piece of the jigsaw post HS2.

Ah! Can you enlarge on that? I'm sure many here would be interested.

 

[AlterEgo]

I certainly do. That's an increasingly strategically important line for freight, and freight by rail is most certainly not going to become irrelevant.

What I do see is gradually increasing amounts of timetabled bustitution on some secondary lines, with the occasional parliamentary service so that formal closure proceedings are not required.

Far more likely, indeed.

S+C is also Britain's (arguably) most photogenic line and would be very resistant to closure. Actual rail closures and network shrinkage are, and still will be, political anathema. The shrinkage will come from reduced headcount and reskilling.

 

[The Planner]

Ah! Can you enlarge on that? I'm sure many here would be interested.

Very doubtful you will get any Class 6 paths north of Preston post HS2 phase 1 and the Cumbrian coast isn't an option, pretty sure there are new early designs for a few line nominal speed increases etc too.

 

[Ken H]

I agree, but have made a slight correction, as I think that the closures and cutbacks will be somewhat greater than most people on this forum would like/envisage. For example, it would be optimistic for the Settle and Carlisle line still to be open in 2030.

S&C is just the sort of line the railway needs for leisure traffic. the fact the Sunday service is so poor is a disgrace. It should be a peak day for making money.

I would think some redundant stuff in the SE would go first. Does Hertford need 2 railways. Could we lose a route through Lewisham?

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Very doubtful you will get any Class 6 paths north of Preston post HS2 phase 1 and the Cumbrian coast isn't an option, pretty sure there are new early designs for a few line nominal speed increases etc too.

Thank you. Is it not the case that most of the freight north of Preston today is in containers and that the tunnels on the S & C line do not permit container (intermodal) trains?

 

[Ken H]

Since the demise of coal, there is now minimal through freight traffic on the Settle and Carlisle line. Closure of the line north of Horton would have little effect on freight other than removing rail access to the Gypsum plant at Newbiggin.

quite a bit of network rail traffic tho. They seem to ship train loads of ballast long distances.

 

[The Planner]

Thank you. Is it not the case that most of the freight north of Preston today is in containers and that the tunnels on the S & C line do not permit container (intermodal) trains?

Yes, the S&C has low gauge clearance, especially at the tunnels.

 

[HSTEd]

And the S&C is not electirified and is unlikely to ever be, it hardly fits the railway's "decarbonisation agenda".

 

[Goldfish62]

And the S&C is not electirified and is unlikely to ever be, it hardly fits the railway's "decarbonisation agenda".

That's the same for the majority of the network...

Freight operators investing in bi-mode locos does however fit the agenda.

 

[HSTEd]

Freight operators investing in bi-mode locos does however fit the agenda.

As far as I know the only electro diesels available are Class 88 family and various Class 73 derivatives, neither of which are particularly suitable for long distance diesel operation of freight trains.

And indeed the only company to buy 25kV capable electrodiesels is owned by the state.

EDIT:

Correction, a tiny handful of new electrodiesels were purchased for use by GBRf in 2025....

 

[stuu]

S&C is just the sort of line the railway needs for leisure traffic. the fact the Sunday service is so poor is a disgrace. It should be a peak day for making money.

I would think some redundant stuff in the SE would go first. Does Hertford need 2 railways. Could we lose a route through Lewisham?

Which redundant railways in the SE would that be? Both Hertford stations saw 1.5m passengers each pre-covid. If you are suggesting closing anything with less than 1.5m passengers then there won't be a lot left. The simple fact is that railways in London and the SE are by far the busiest in the country. Down to population density and the lack of alternatives, not just government favouritism which is the usual trope on here

 

[The Planner]

As far as I know the only electro diesels available are Class 88 family and various Class 73 derivatives, neither of which are particularly suitable for long distance diesel operation of freight trains.

And indeed the only company to buy 25kV capable electrodiesels is owned by the state.

EDIT:

Correction, a tiny handful of new electrodiesels were purchased for use by GBRf in 2025....

We get you despise freight but 30 class 99s is not a handful.

 

[HSTEd]

We get you despise freight but 30 class 99s is not a handful.

Compared to the diesel locomotive fleet it is.

There are 400+ Class 66 alone.

 

[The Planner]

Compared to the diesel locomotive fleet it is.

There are 400+ Class 66 alone.

How many of those are in use at once?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't see why.

The DfT have gone out of their way to renegotiate our guards' contracts this year with longer notice periods and Sundays inside to put them in line with drivers. I agree that metro services could be an easy target, but I doubt your guard on regional or intercity services has much to worry about as long as the trains are still operating.

I would be surprised to see single-manned long distance InterCity or long distance regional services like Liverpool-Notts or TPE. I would be unsurprised if the second member of staff ended up as a non-safety-critical steward of some kind.

But I would be equally unsurprised if, say, West Midlands Trains wasn't DOO before very long, at least south of Northampton plus Birmingham urban services. Southeastern similarly. And I wouldn't be sure of the future of Southern OBSs on the shorter routes.

 

[GoneSouth]

I would be surprised to see single-manned long distance InterCity or long distance regional services like Liverpool-Notts or TPE. I would be unsurprised if the second member of staff ended up as a non-safety-critical steward of some kind.

But I would be equally unsurprised if, say, West Midlands Trains wasn't DOO before very long, at least south of Northampton plus Birmingham urban services. Southeastern similarly. And I wouldn't be sure of the future of Southern OBSs on the shorter routes.

I don’t understand what DOO is really, does it literally mean only 1 member of staff per train?

If this is the case, how are disabled people catered for? Does the driver have to jump out of the cab every time a ramp needs to be deployed?

Apologies if daft question!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don’t understand what DOO is really, does it literally mean only 1 member of staff per train?

Yes, it means Driver Only Operation.

If this is the case, how are disabled people catered for? Does the driver have to jump out of the cab every time a ramp needs to be deployed?

The ramp is done by platform staff or others e.g. prebooked assistance staff. This is one of the biggest issues with it.

 

[GoneSouth]

Yes, it means Driver Only Operation.



The ramp is done by platform staff or others e.g. prebooked assistance staff. This is one of the biggest issues with it.

And if a disabled person happens to live at an unstaffed station? Tough ****?

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Thanks for the explanation btw

 

[Bletchleyite]

And if a disabled person happens to live at an unstaffed station? Tough ****?

They send someone there in a van. But it does require prebooking.

Most DOO stations aren't unstaffed, though, it is primarily used in the South East where things are busier and stations are more likely to be staffed.

 

[HSTEd]

In the long run level boarding improvements [see Harrington Humps etc] will eventually reduce the number of assistance calls required.

 

[GoneSouth]

They send someone there in a van. But it does require prebooking.

Most DOO stations aren't unstaffed, though, it is primarily used in the South East where things are busier and stations are more likely to be staffed.

Can completely understand why disabled people would be a bit miffed about the arrangement, essentially there is no way of making a trip without pre booking. Kind of takes the spontaneity out of life and as for missed connections…!

Sending someone in a van I imagine is a nightmare and people just end up being carried along to the next station more often than should be the case.

How user unfriendly!

 

[Tester]

I don’t understand what DOO is really, does it literally mean only 1 member of staff per train?

If this is the case, how are disabled people catered for? Does the driver have to jump out of the cab every time a ramp needs to be deployed?

Apologies if daft question!

Not a daft question at all!

On the Melbourne, Australia, suburban network (100% DOO) that is exactly how it works - and I can say from experience that it works very well!

No pre-booking required. Disabled passengers wait by the first door of the train (where generally a shelter is provided) and the driver deploys the on board ramp, taking note of the passenger's destination, where without further ado the same occurs.