When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

[GusB]

Before I say anything else, here's a YouTube clip of the interview with Boris Johnson.

There are a few facts that I gleaned from it: 1) Elsie's pension is £170 a week and 2) her property is in Band F for council tax, which means she's not eligible for the £150 extra payment and 3) She already qualifies for the Warm Home Discount (this isn't explicit, but I assume this is what is meant).

This means that: https://www.gov.uk/the-warm-home-discount-scheme

There are 2 ways to qualify for the Warm Home Discount Scheme:

• you get the Guarantee Credit element of Pension Credit - known as the ‘core group’
• you’re on a low income and meet your energy supplier’s criteria for the scheme - known as the ‘broader group’

Whatever makes you think you can deduce that about my life? Actually I can confirm that I *have* had a couple of periods the past been in the situation where I had to account for every penny.

Well, there's this part of your post:

One other thing that's puzzling me. She is reported as claiming to be paying £85/month on energy and is barely able to feed herself after that. The state pension is £141.85 a week, which comes to about £600/month - so she should have about £500/month left after paying energy bills. She presumably has to pay rent, but if she's on a low income she'd presumably be eligible to claim housing benefit to make most of that up. Maybe she hasn't paid enough pension contributions to get the full state pension, but in that case, can't you claim universal credit? Obviously, not knowing the details of her situation, all we can do is guess. But based on those figures, I'm struggling to see how her income could be so low as not to be able to cope with paying £20/week in energy bills.

I'm willing to accept that once upon a time you may have had the odd occasion where finances were very tight, but it's clear to me that it's something that you're obviously not having to worry about now, otherwise you'd probably be able to empathise with this lady a little bit more. This paragraph suggests to me that you're every bit as out of touch as Boris himself. A wee bit of basic research would have informed you that she couldn't possibly claim Universal Credit, for example.

What am I missing?

A real sense of what it's like to live on a low income, and a lot of compassion for the most vulnerable in society.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm willing to accept that once upon a time you may have had the odd occasion where finances were very tight, but it's clear to me that it's something that you're obviously not having to worry about now, otherwise you'd probably be able to empathise with this lady a little bit more. This paragraph suggests to me that you're every bit as out of touch as Boris himself. A wee bit of basic research would have informed you that she couldn't possibly claim Universal Credit, for example.


A real sense of what it's like to live on a low income, and a lot of compassion for the most vulnerable in society.

I think you're being a tad judgemental there. I looked at the figures that were being reported in the media, did some mental calculations based on my understanding of what the pension rules are and how they related to the reports about Elsie. The figures didn't seem to add up so I posted here to query and see if anyone could provide more information. It's perfectly possible to be compassionate and also at the same time to want to check facts. And I don't think lacking detailed knowledge of the rules of pensions and universal credit and wanting to seek clarification makes someone 'out of touch'.

 

[GusB]

I think you're being a tad judgemental there. I looked at the figures that were being reported in the media, did some mental calculations based on my understanding of what the pension rules are and how they related to the reports about Elsie. The figures didn't seem to add up so I posted here to query and see if anyone could provide more information. It's perfectly possible to be compassionate and also at the same time to want to check facts. And I don't think lacking detailed knowledge of the rules of pensions and universal credit and wanting to seek clarification makes someone 'out of touch'.

Well, I think we'll have to agree to disagree there. Anyone who requires someone on a low income to justify every penny that's spent is, to my mind at least, being judgemental. If you're really hell-bent on checking facts about incomes, you should really be looking upwards, not downwards.

 

[Typhoon]

If her income is sufficiently low she may be entitled to pension credit. Pension credit can be a nightmare to apply for, and when they make a mistake they always make sure they get any overpayments back in the shortest amount of time - this happened to my mother and it upset her no end because they were the ones who got the sums wrong.

Is Elsie aware that she may be entitled to claim additional benefits? Perhaps she's one of the many people who are too proud to claim any additional benefits, thereby leaving lots unclaimed.

My mother had a similar experience, and the tone of the letter was hardly sympathetic. It could be that Elsie has made a claim, which has been rejected in a brusque manner so is reluctant to claim for another benefit. Support in what benefits are available, how to apply and assistance in doing so appears to be patchy across the country.

(Unfortunately, they are almost certainly understaffed.)

 

[Paul Jones 88]

If I was in a Band F house that I could not afford to heat adequately I would downsize.

 

[AM9]

If I was in a Band F house that I could not afford to heat adequately I would downsize.

If yuo had the cash to make a move.

 

[birchesgreen]

If yuo had the cash to make a move.

Indeed, moving is an expensive, time consuming and stressful business for anyone, especially a senior.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Indeed, moving is an expensive, time consuming and stressful business for anyone, especially a senior.

Couldn't agree more. I was 75 when we relocated in order to be nearer to the sources of medical care when my wife was still alive. It was a very traumatic experience indeed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If I was in a Band F house that I could not afford to heat adequately I would downsize.

Not always that easy. The £150 thing was very poorly targetted (for ease of automated delivery I suspect). It would have made more sense to pay it per household to those only paying 20% or zero rate tax, say.

Would help if our outmoded house sale system was improved. But if you're 80 it may be too much anyway.

 

[Typhoon]

If I was in a Band F house that I could not afford to heat adequately I would downsize.

Depends where you live. It is not too difficult to find one bedroom terraced houses in parts of London that are in bands E and F (first one I could find the band for was in Shepherds Bush, streetview showed the cars parked outside properties were nothing special). Try to find ones in a lower band presents more of a problem. If you've grown up in an area and are well past retirement, you don't necessarily want the unfamiliar, particularly if you are on your own. Moving might prove to be particularly difficult if she has had her property adapted if she has mobility issues, say.

 

[brad465]

Former Tory MP Nick Boles has revealed he voted Labour in the local elections today, and also did in 1997 for Blair, which is a sign that the Labour party are moving to a position where they can take moderate Tories like in the Blair years:

https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1522130462239563776

First time I’ve voted Labour since an equally glorious May morning in 1997.

 

[Bayum]

I’m desperate for a big swing. Boris has been out of his depth for far too long. Too little, too late. I’m not even sure that local elections are going to finish him off unfortunately besides ‘taking responsibility’. Bums in Westminster count.

 

[jon0844]

Nice to see interest rates increased - on an election day*, so we can be encouraged to spend less!

Erm, I think an increase in my mortgage, energy bills, fuel bills, food bills and a drop in pay due to higher NI is doing a perfectly good job of stopping many people spending money.

Plus, stopping people spending money is not exactly good for the economy. Let's hit the leisure/hospitality and retail industries even more!

I think a lot more people will be joining Elsie on the bus this year!

* I got an email from Lloyds earlier this week saying rates had gone up and my mortgage was going up. They then emailed yesterday to apologise for their mistake and that rates hadn't changed. So it's pretty damn clear that someone asked the Bank of England to hold off the bad news.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I’m desperate for a big swing. Boris has been out of his depth for far too long. Too little, too late. I’m not even sure that local elections are going to finish him off unfortunately besides ‘taking responsibility’. Bums in Westminster count.

There is a separate thread on this forum termed "2022 UK Local Elections". Remember that even if a vast swing should so occur, the local councils still require the current Conservative government to provide certain funding, unless these councils wish to avail themselves of that finance from a different source and the Treasury are always on the lookout for methodology that will reduce their outlay.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 May 2022 ==

* I got an email from Lloyds earlier this week saying rates had gone up and my mortgage was going up. They then emailed yesterday to apologise for their mistake and that rates hadn't changed. So it's pretty damn clear that someone asked the Bank of England to hold off the bad news.

The referred-to "holding off the bad news" appears not to have lasted all that long as the Bank of England did make the announcement.

 

[Ediswan]

So it's pretty damn clear that someone asked the Bank of England to hold off the bad news.

The dates for interest rate change announcements are set well in advance.

 

[brad465]

The dates for interest rate change announcements are set well in advance.

Yes they are set based on when the GDP data comes out: this meeting is one week before the Q1 GDP data, and they have meetings every six weeks, with a full monetary report meeting just before GDP data is due, and midpoint meetings bring the frequency to every 6 weeks for 8 meetings a year. I do think though they should plan around when elections are, regardless of what decisions/reports are made, so they don't come out on an election day, the same thing this year happened with the locals last year as well. When covid hit they were able to plan an emergency meeting, so I'm sure adjusting others is possible.

 

[GS250]

I don't think its a particularly great time to be in government if I'm being honest. Covid has done all kinds of things to the market and its certainly not just the UK that is feeling the pinch.

Whoever is in charge for the next 10 or so years is going to be dealing with a pretty angry electorate. And moving further forward we will now have the first generation of young professionals who won't be able to afford a property. Maybe (in part) we've been spoiled the last 25 years with artificially low prices on goods/services and a false sense of expectation? I really don't know.

The call for a more 'Socialist' model is indeed valid. However....that means its has to be for everyone involved. No exceptions for celebrities, the genuine wealthy etc. And this is why when push comes to shove, people will usually vote for their own self interest as opposed to society.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The call for a more 'Socialist' model is indeed valid. However....that means its has to be for everyone involved. No exceptions for celebrities, the genuine wealthy etc. And this is why when push comes to shove, people will usually vote for their own self interest as opposed to society.

History shows that the leaders of these former "Socialist" states certainly lived a lifestyle that was never in aspirational grasp of their citizens and was well reflected in the book "Animal Farm"

 

[birchesgreen]

I got an email from Lloyds earlier this week saying rates had gone up and my mortgage was going up. They then emailed yesterday to apologise for their mistake and that rates hadn't changed. So it's pretty damn clear that someone asked the Bank of England to hold off the bad news.

Yes i had similar from my bank.

 

[edwin_m]

I don't think its a particularly great time to be in government if I'm being honest. Covid has done all kinds of things to the market and its certainly not just the UK that is feeling the pinch.

Whoever is in charge for the next 10 or so years is going to be dealing with a pretty angry electorate. And moving further forward we will now have the first generation of young professionals who won't be able to afford a property. Maybe (in part) we've been spoiled the last 25 years with artificially low prices on goods/services and a false sense of expectation? I really don't know.

Compounded by mistakes made by this government, which a later government of whichever party has to try to fix. Related in particular to Brexit, which according to the OBR will hit the UK economy twice as hard as Covid - and hasn't affected any other country to the same degree.

 

[GS250]

History shows that the leaders of these former "Socialist" states certainly lived a lifestyle that was never in aspirational grasp of their citizens and was well reflected in the book "Animal Farm"

I'm more referring to the more moderate Socialist nations such as those in mainland Europe. No doubt...it's worked for many. However if you are in the top 5% you are certainly expected to pay your way. I think an awful lot of relatively wealthy Britons would get something of a shock if a genuine socialist framework was implemented.

It may come to this this if your large demographic of lower-middle earners can no longer pay their bills or start losing their homes.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I'm more referring to the more moderate Socialist nations such as those in mainland Europe. No doubt...it's worked for many. However if you are in the top 5% you are certainly expected to pay your way. I think an awful lot of relatively wealthy Britons would get something of a shock if a genuine socialist framework was implemented.

It may come to this this if your large demographic of lower-middle earners can no longer pay their bills or start losing their homes.

Is this the type of Socialism that Jeremy Corbyn put before the national electorate in a General Election the last time that he was the leader of the Labour Party?

 

[jon0844]

It may come to this this if your large demographic of lower-middle earners can no longer pay their bills or start losing their homes.

Perhaps, but sadly I think they'd allow it to get really, really, bad before doing anything that might make a difference.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm more referring to the more moderate Socialist nations such as those in mainland Europe. No doubt...it's worked for many. However if you are in the top 5% you are certainly expected to pay your way. I think an awful lot of relatively wealthy Britons would get something of a shock if a genuine socialist framework was implemented.

I would venture to suggest that just about every Briton would get something of a shock when their living standards plummet and they discover what pretty much anyone who understands the first thing about economics or about economic history can tell you: That socialism doesn't work and is incapable of generating the wealth and innovation that you need to give people a decent life.

I suspect what you're referring to by 'more moderate Socialist nations' are actually not socialist at all, but are broadly market-oriented with perhaps a stronger welfare system than the UK has had at times.

 

[brad465]

History shows that the leaders of these former "Socialist" states certainly lived a lifestyle that was never in aspirational grasp of their citizens and was well reflected in the book "Animal Farm"

The person who wrote Animal Farm proclaimed to be a democratic socialist. You get authoritarianism on both extremes of politics, as it has nothing to do with economic system. The economic system is based on the ownership and distribution of wealth, not what people can say, do and vote about (i.e. politics/laws). These things do of course overlap, but one type of economic system does not mean everything under another type of political system exists as well.

 

[swt_passenger]

Nice to see interest rates increased - on an election day*, so we can be encouraged to spend less!

Erm, I think an increase in my mortgage, energy bills, fuel bills, food bills and a drop in pay due to higher NI is doing a perfectly good job of stopping many people spending money.

Plus, stopping people spending money is not exactly good for the economy. Let's hit the leisure/hospitality and retail industries even more!

I think a lot more people will be joining Elsie on the bus this year!

* I got an email from Lloyds earlier this week saying rates had gone up and my mortgage was going up. They then emailed yesterday to apologise for their mistake and that rates hadn't changed. So it's pretty damn clear that someone asked the Bank of England to hold off the bad news.

I thought the interest rate announcement was always on certain Thursdays, and in this case it was some of the banks that had issued their emails too early. There’s a timetable here:

Monetary Policy Committee dates for 2026 and 2027

Dates for Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announcements on Bank Rate and publication of MPC meeting minutes and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report.

www.bankofengland.co.uk

 

[Kite159]

Nice to see interest rates increased - on an election day*, so we can be encouraged to spend less!

Erm, I think an increase in my mortgage, energy bills, fuel bills, food bills and a drop in pay due to higher NI is doing a perfectly good job of stopping many people spending money.

Plus, stopping people spending money is not exactly good for the economy. Let's hit the leisure/hospitality and retail industries even more!

I think a lot more people will be joining Elsie on the bus this year!

* I got an email from Lloyds earlier this week saying rates had gone up and my mortgage was going up. They then emailed yesterday to apologise for their mistake and that rates hadn't changed. So it's pretty damn clear that someone asked the Bank of England to hold off the bad news.

Banks passing on Interest rates rises will be straight away on any products where you owe them money (Mortgages/credit cards) but they will hold back on passing on the rise of interest rate on savings account.

Bit like petrol/energy prices, go up like a rocket when oil prices are rising, but come back like a feather when the prices drop.

 

[Busaholic]

Is it really fair to be picking over the finances of someone who is struggling to get by? You say that all we can do is guess; to a certain extent, yes, but it's clear that you've never been in the situation where you've had to account for every penny!

For starters, being over pension age, Elsie would not be entitled to Universal Credit. It's not entirely clear that she would be eligible for housing benefit either; it would depend on her individual circumstances. If her income is sufficiently low she may be entitled to pension credit. Pension credit can be a nightmare to apply for, and when they make a mistake they always make sure they get any overpayments back in the shortest amount of time - this happened to my mother and it upset her no end because they were the ones who got the sums wrong.

Is Elsie aware that she may be entitled to claim additional benefits? Perhaps she's one of the many people who are too proud to claim any additional benefits, thereby leaving lots unclaimed.

Or it could be the case that she tried to put a little bit of extra income away when she was working, but when the rainy day came it turned out that she was just over the threshold for any means-tested benefits. This happened to my grandmother, who thought she was doing the right thing by paying a wee bit into a private pension.

Anyhow, going back to whether or not a five-fold rise is feasible, I've worked out that it would cost me three times what I was paying last year if I'd gone on to the standard variable tariff with my current provider. As I've mentioned in another thread, I think I dodged a bullet by ditching my (now defunct) supplier and was lucky to pick up a 3-year fixed rate tariff before everything went skyward. £100 as opposed to £45 was a big hit for me, but it could have ended up being a lot worse (£133 would be my monthly payment now, on the variable rate).

After my wife died in February, I was sent Pension Credit forms to fill in, on the basis that, with her pension gone, my pension was less than the £382.60 pw that Pension Credit would bring it up to (basically, my pension is the same as Elsie's). I'm not prepared to subject myself to that scrutiny for the sake of that extra pittance: the opposite, in my case, of being reluctant to apply for state help, I'm disgusted by the attitude of this government and its predecessor coalition government towards less well-off pensioners, particularly those with disabilities that have manifest themselves in the period since 2013 with the scrapping of Disability Living Allowance. The pathetic catch-all Attendance Allowance is inappropriate for many and can often only be got by overstating the reliance on named or unnamed others to provide demeaning 'personal services.'

I can see, by the way, how Elsie's bill has increased fivefold. I am in dispute with EDF, to the extent of challenging them on the legality of their bills to me over a period of years, and while it goes on my bills are being kept surprisingly low, but if I lose a fivefold increase is on the cards.

 

[nw1]

Compounded by mistakes made by this government, which a later government of whichever party has to try to fix. Related in particular to Brexit, which according to the OBR will hit the UK economy twice as hard as Covid - and hasn't affected any other country to the same degree.

If Brexit has indeed contributed significantly to the economic crisis, I hope those responsible face the consequences at the ballot box at some point. But I suspect any link will continue to be covered up.

Personally I would consider the root cause to be a combination of non-Brexit and Brexit factors, so, while we would still be in an economic crisis even in a "remain" scenario, Brexit is adding additional complications.

 

[ainsworth74]

After my wife died in February, I was sent Pension Credit forms to fill in, on the basis that, with her pension gone, my pension was less than the £382.60 pw that Pension Credit would bring it up to (basically, my pension is the same as Elsie's). I'm not prepared to subject myself to that scrutiny for the sake of that extra pittance: the opposite, in my case, of being reluctant to apply for state help, I'm disgusted by the attitude of this government and its predecessor coalition government towards less well-off pensioners, particularly those with disabilities that have manifest themselves in the period since 2013 with the scrapping of Disability Living Allowance. The pathetic catch-all Attendance Allowance is inappropriate for many and can often only be got by overstating the reliance on named or unnamed others to provide demeaning 'personal services.'

Condolences on the loss of your wife and I whole heartedly agree with the general thrust of your post around how demeaning the whole benefit system is for disabled people (heck people in general, why should jobseekers be treated as a particularly awful piece of dirt on the sole of your shoe?) but, just a word of caution, that whilst the Pension Credit itself may only be a pittance above your state pension it can unlock other things. A 100% reduction on a Council Tax bill, full Housing Benefit to cover all or most of someone's rent and free NHS dental treatment for instance. The direct financial advantage of Pension Credit might be slight but it can still be worth claiming to unlock other things that can make a huge difference.