Post Covid Passenger Rebound

[JonathanH]

Two car Brighton to Worcester this morning severely overcrowded by Chichester passengers left behind everywhere

With any luck, once GWR and the 313s have gone, it won't be too long before the minimum train length on the West Coastway is four coaches.

 

[ExRes]

The only way this country can be serious about reducing car use is by nationalizing the entire transport system, privately owned bus companies, for example, are not going to buy thousands of new vehicles and take on the staff to operate them unless there is the guaranteed custom to pay for them, the alternative are nationalized buses paid for by increased personal taxation, hands up all those who will happily do that

 

[JonathanH]

by nationalizing the entire transport system, privately owned bus companies, for example, are not going to buy thousands of new vehicles and take on the staff to operate them unless there is the guaranteed custom to pay for them

...and you think the government is going to do that?

 

[ExRes]

...and you think the government is going to do that?

Not in the slightest, that's why the notion of people leaving their cars at home is so ridiculous

 

[Bikeman78]

Railways are built because it is impossible to carry the huge amount of people on roads, even with all buses packed full.

This point was amply demonstrated during the tube strikes. Buses were full, people reportedly waiting over an hour and traffic barely moving. Almost two hours to do five miles. I'd have walked if it hadn't been raining. Imagine the chaos with pre Covid passenger volumes.

 

[43066]

Having just spent 100mins of my life listening to last weeks Transport Select Committee hearing into GBR there was a discussion about passenger numbers and the following figures were quoted for middle of March 22.

Business Travel - 33% pre covid and pretty static
Commuter Travel - 54% of pre covid levels but still seeing increases week on week
Leisure Travel - 100% of pre covid levels and still increasing.

Of course this is nationwide but the did indicate long distance commuting has been hit more than short distance commuting.

All in all the Undersecretary forecast that support to operators will be around £5.5B for 2021/22 and whilst more than they forecast at the start of the f/year they have seen better revenue income improvements than they expected post lifting of covid restrictions.

I also noted a repetitive statement from Haines and the Undersecretary that with National Rail Contracts the DfT can rapidly getting timetables changed to reflect changes in demand.

That’s interesting and certainly ties in with my own impression that there has been a substantial uptick in travel over the last three or four weeks. It’s great to see and certainly shows the railway is still very relevant despite the doom-mongering.

Who knows, in another year or so we might well be back to or exceeding 2019 figures!

This is not my experience. Evening peak trains are usually quieter than weekend trains now on my local route (Weymouth - Waterloo).

Of course your impression will depend on where on the route you live. It will vary by individual service and location but that is the overall picture based on the official figures.

 

[Bikeman78]

Of course your impression will depend on where on the route you live. It will vary by individual service and location but that is the overall picture based on the official figures.

It all seems to be very random at the moment. A few weeks ago the 0647 Cambridge to Liverpool Street turned out a pair of class 317s. Decent load from Audley and 80% of seats occupied from Bishop's Stortford with a few standing. More recently the 0621 Cambridge to Liverpool Street, everyone still had their own bay of 4 or 6 at Broxbourne. It seems that people are going in a bit later. Though I do wonder how well the 0617 CBG-LST would fill if it were reinstated. Clearly people from Audley End and Bishop's Stortford favour the faster trains.

 

[Jimini]

It all seems to be very random at the moment. A few weeks ago the 0647 Cambridge to Liverpool Street turned out a pair of class 317s. Decent load from Audley and 80% of seats occupied from Bishop's Stortford with a few standing. More recently the 0621 Cambridge to Liverpool Street, everyone still had their own bay of 4 or 6 at Broxbourne. It seems that people are going in a bit later. Though I do wonder how well the 0617 CBG-LST would fill if it were reinstated. Clearly people from Audley End and Bishop's Stortford favour the faster trains.

Purely based on my circle of friends and their working agreements, there seems to be a decent proportion of employers who -- as part of agreeing a certain rota of WFH / office days -- also allow their employees to start later in the day to avoid paying for peak tickets.

Employers in a lot of instances are far more tolerant of the costs of travel, and allow staff to work to later / more flexible schedules to avoid paying TOCs peak fares.

The car crash that is flexi season tickets (just my humble opinion there ) has been sussed out pretty quickly. My employer (2,500+ staff based in SE1) has certainly acknowledged this and allowed staff to work around it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Not in the slightest, that's why the notion of people leaving their cars at home is so ridiculous

I leave my car at home every day. Indeed I use it yesterday for the first time in two months. I have been using the train a lot though !

 

[paul1609]

I leave my car at home every day. Indeed I use it yesterday for the first time in two months. I have been using the train a lot though !

Isn't train use for you either free or heavily discounted though?

 

[ar10642]

Isn't train use for you either free or heavily discounted though?

If it is it's a perfect example of set the price right and they will come.

 

[ExRes]

If it is it's a perfect example of set the price right and they will come.

I disagree, I have free and reduced rate rail but always use my car, if I was younger who knows but the hassle and inconvenience of walking to get a bus to get a train to get another one just to travel 20 miles, no thank you

 

[Snow1964]

Having just spent 100mins of my life listening to last weeks Transport Select Committee hearing into GBR there was a discussion about passenger numbers and the following figures were quoted for middle of March 22.

Business Travel - 33% pre covid and pretty static
Commuter Travel - 54% of pre covid levels but still seeing increases week on week
Leisure Travel - 100% of pre covid levels and still increasing.

And that is the current problem, leisure travel going above 100% of pre covid

The railway has fragmented, and leased trains that are not aimed at leisure travel, so much of the rolling stock that is spare can’t be used. It is either electric, configured wrongly in fixed formations, or simply aimed at long distance travel on routes to one place (London)

Meanwhile it is virtually impossible to get a high capacity train from somewhere like Sheffield or Birmingham on a sunny day to the seaside, the timetable still has them rostered to go to London even if demand isn’t there.

It seems to me there is a sort of post covid paralysis, where no one in senior management is able to convince the DfT that things have changed and need to make radical changes to develop the booming leisure market.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Apr 2022 ==

If it is it's a perfect example of set the price right and they will come.

But can’t do this if don’t have spare trains to absorb the discretionary leisure market

 

[nw1]

Also, if we are playing the "green" card (since people like to use highlight environmental credentials to justify improved/increased railways) then you've got to understand that the first "R" in the mantra is "reduce". Cheap tickets that suit rail enthusiasts wanting to galavant about the country on a budget sound great, but it's not "reducing" anything - if we are serious about the environment then there's an argument that we should be discouraging non-essential travel

I would strongly disagree with such an argument. We've spent enough of our lives stuck at home for the past two years due to Covid, any attempt by politicians to keep this state of affairs going long term by discouraging people from travelling (even domestically), using environmental reasons to justify it, is in my view over the top.

Life has got to be actually enjoyable and worth living, we're not going to achieve that if we're stuck at - or close to - home all the time and constantly feeling guilty about taking the train to reach some other part of England (let alone the plane to reach let's say southern Europe or the USA). Yes, we need to be concerned about the environment, yes, it's better to take an electric train rather than a plane to travel from London to say Paris, Brussels, Manchester or Glasgow, yes, it's better to run electric rather than diesel trains - but we should not be concerned to such an extreme extent that we have to discourage travel full stop.

 

[43066]

I leave my car at home every day. Indeed I use it yesterday for the first time in two months. I have been using the train a lot though !

I don’t even have a car!

The railway has fragmented, and leased trains that are not aimed at leisure travel, so much of the rolling stock that is spare can’t be used. It is either electric, configured wrongly in fixed formations, or simply aimed at long distance travel on routes to one place (London)

Meanwhile it is virtually impossible to get a high capacity train from somewhere like Sheffield or Birmingham on a sunny day to the seaside, the timetable still has them rostered to go to London even if demand isn’t there.

Not sure that’s necessarily correct - even looking at leisure travel there’s surely going to be way more demand for Sheffield to London than (say) Skegness of Grimsby which are a long way to travel and pretty ghastly when you get there by all accounts. Then add in students, occasional business travellers etc. and the capacity is very much needed.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Apr 2022 ==

I would strongly disagree with such an argument. We've spent enough of our lives stuck at home for the past two years due to Covid, any attempt by politicians to keep this state of affairs going long term by discouraging people from travelling (even domestically), using environmental reasons to justify it, is in my view over the top.

Life has got to be actually enjoyable and worth living, we're not going to achieve that if we're stuck at - or close to - home all the time and constantly feeling guilty about taking the train to reach some other part of England (let alone the plane to reach let's say southern Europe or the USA). Yes, we need to be concerned about the environment, yes, it's better to take an electric train rather than a plane to travel from London to say Paris, Brussels, Manchester or Glasgow, yes, it's better to run electric rather than diesel trains - but we should not be concerned to such an extreme extent that we have to discourage travel full stop.

I couldn’t agree more.

 

[david1212]

And that is the current problem, leisure travel going above 100% of pre covid

The railway has fragmented, and leased trains that are not aimed at leisure travel, so much of the rolling stock that is spare can’t be used. It is either electric, configured wrongly in fixed formations, or simply aimed at long distance travel on routes to one place (London)

Meanwhile it is virtually impossible to get a high capacity train from somewhere like Sheffield or Birmingham on a sunny day to the seaside, the timetable still has them rostered to go to London even if demand isn’t there.

It seems to me there is a sort of post covid paralysis, where no one in senior management is able to convince the DfT that things have changed and need to make radical changes to develop the booming leisure market.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Apr 2022 ==



But can’t do this if don’t have spare trains to absorb the discretionary leisure market

The days of a stream of additional trains to ( insert name of seaside town or sporting event ) have gone. First the infrastructure. If paths exist too much work to plan them. Siding space for the extra trains has been removed, also no facilities to empty CET and refill water tanks.

Second staffing. The failure to ensure enough staff can be rostered for the timetabled service is ongoing while understandably even without RDW disputes finding volunteers for post kickball match, racing event and late evening services can be difficult. Many more different train types and staff are only trained on a few. Similarly drivers have a more limited route knowledge.

Third the trains. No longer can rakes of coaches be reshuffled to form 8, 10 even 12 coach sets to run instead of a DMU then the DMU used to strengthen another service. Modern trains often only have clearance for certain routes.
The class 365's have mostly been scrapped due to no demand rather than life expired. A thousand reasons why not due to incompatibility but had 2/3 of the driving cars been scrapped, the motors removed from the remainder then formed into 8 or 10 car hauled stock for a class 67 there would be 10 - 12 sets with seated capacity for 480 - 600. With all the work that had been done class 442 potentially suitable too and all cars could have been used as unit end corridors.
If with railcards, child fares, group fares an average of just 10p/mile running close to capacity for 150 miles and half capacity for 75 miles the farebox income would be over £9000. That ought to have a decent surplus after costs ( Class 365's of course only have running / maintenance costs not any leasing cor capital cost ) as well giving passengers a positive impression. The latter would generate further farebox income.


The DfT & treasury need to bang their heads together then openly state what the future service will be. No doubt not what even existing passengers / customers want never mind attracting more but at least known.

 

[317 forever]

And that is the current problem, leisure travel going above 100% of pre covid

The railway has fragmented, and leased trains that are not aimed at leisure travel, so much of the rolling stock that is spare can’t be used. It is either electric, configured wrongly in fixed formations, or simply aimed at long distance travel on routes to one place (London)

Meanwhile it is virtually impossible to get a high capacity train from somewhere like Sheffield or Birmingham on a sunny day to the seaside, the timetable still has them rostered to go to London even if demand isn’t there.

It seems to me there is a sort of post covid paralysis, where no one in senior management is able to convince the DfT that things have changed and need to make radical changes to develop the booming leisure market.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Apr 2022 ==



But can’t do this if don’t have spare trains to absorb the discretionary leisure market

Where this strikes me as true is where commuting, such as in the London area, has decreased but leisure travel to resorts such as Whitby has increased. Spare trains from less London commuting, such as 455s, can of course not be reallocated to Whitby services.

Where there will be a problem is where commuting is < 100% pre-Covid but leisure travel > 100% pre-Covid. There will often be no available stock suitable for those leisure lines.

 

[nw1]

Where this strikes me as true is where commuting, such as in the London area, has decreased but leisure travel to resorts such as Whitby has increased. Spare trains from less London commuting, such as 455s, can of course not be reallocated to Whitby services.

Whitby crowd-busters: 455s hauled by whatever diesel locos might be compatible with them.

 

[43066]

Whitby crowd-busters: 442s hauled by whatever diesel locos might be compatible with them.

Duly corrected.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

On the basis that (a) business travel from Derby Leicester etc (b) hefty commuter flows from the likes of Kettering etc are now not there - and with the desire to glean some off peak and leisure traffic , could not the MML train plan include some meaning full ability to get from north of St Pancras to south of Bedford to get to the north ? .In other words a couple of Luton Airport and Bedford calls on faster trains to Derby etc.

Take St Albans to Nottingham - once an easy change at LAP to the "slow" Nottingham - now you have the joys of multiple changes en route and hanging around.

 

[yorksrob]

Whitby crowd-busters: 455s hauled by whatever diesel locos might be compatible with them.

Where this strikes me as true is where commuting, such as in the London area, has decreased but leisure travel to resorts such as Whitby has increased. Spare trains from less London commuting, such as 455s, can of course not be reallocated to Whitby services.

Where there will be a problem is where commuting is < 100% pre-Covid but leisure travel > 100% pre-Covid. There will often be no available stock suitable for those leisure lines.

Our just gather together the 153's that have been sent off-lease, which are already cleared for Northern services and use them for strengthening.

 

[Bikeman78]

Where this strikes me as true is where commuting, such as in the London area, has decreased but leisure travel to resorts such as Whitby has increased. Spare trains from less London commuting, such as 455s, can of course not be reallocated to Whitby services.

Where there will be a problem is where commuting is < 100% pre-Covid but leisure travel > 100% pre-Covid. There will often be no available stock suitable for those leisure lines.

I recall on hot summer days the Belgians would string together six of their standard two car units and run 12 car reliefs from Blankenberge to Brussels. Plenty of them standing spare in Brugge or Gent at the weekend. Great fun belting up the high speed line from Gent to Brussel Zuid. Of course reliefs are much easier to run because all trains can run anywhere and almost all drivers sign every type of loco or unit. I've even had an 1100 to Blankenberge in the summer. They were normally dedicated to the Brussels to Amsterdam route.

 

[al78]

I would strongly disagree with such an argument. We've spent enough of our lives stuck at home for the past two years due to Covid, any attempt by politicians to keep this state of affairs going long term by discouraging people from travelling (even domestically), using environmental reasons to justify it, is in my view over the top.

Life has got to be actually enjoyable and worth living, we're not going to achieve that if we're stuck at - or close to - home all the time and constantly feeling guilty about taking the train to reach some other part of England (let alone the plane to reach let's say southern Europe or the USA). Yes, we need to be concerned about the environment, yes, it's better to take an electric train rather than a plane to travel from London to say Paris, Brussels, Manchester or Glasgow, yes, it's better to run electric rather than diesel trains - but we should not be concerned to such an extreme extent that we have to discourage travel full stop.

I would agree. Anyone who wants to advocate abolishing non-esential travel should first provide evidence that such travel is a significant contributer to an individual's carbon footprint on average using logic and facts. This might come close to being true for the wealthiest individuals who fly abroad long distance on holiday multiple times a year, and I would agree that flying should be discouraged, but I doubt those of us who occasionally travel 15 miles to go for a walk, or one annual holiday to the Scottish highlands are really inflating our emissions by doing so.

 

[modernrail]

Virtually nobody is going to make a decision like this with bus and rail fares being what they are. Especially with a family.

Another example, bus this timd. We now live in a village and my kids school is 7 miles each way. Diesel about £2 return parking again free or low cost (£1.50 2 hours). The bus for an adult is £8.30 return (which I'd have to do twice) and £4.15 for the two children. It runs hourly at the worst possible times to get them to/from their school, stops at 6PM, no service at all on Sunday or Bank Holidays.

We are not serious about reducing car use in this country at all.

£4.15 for a single 7 mile bus journey. Says it all really.

What is annoying me about continuing to cut the peaks is that it presumes the demand isn’t there, whereas it might be that it is there but not at that price.

As somebody else said above, the peak fares are untenable in the new world and the railway risks dropping overall revenue by failing to tweak fares across peak/off peak. It is also important for UK plc. The more people using that peak capacity the more people are on their way nice and early and the more people are not in cars.

I have personally sat at home and done emails and jumped on later off peak trains many times recently. I would happily jump on the earlier trains if they were not so stupidly priced. It would also often be a bit more convenient for my day overall on many occasions.

It is also a bad use of capacity we have paid to make available.

 

[gc4946]

Our just gather together the 153's that have been sent off-lease, which are already cleared for Northern services and use them for strengthening.

Surely it's now time for a reserve fleet of DMUs to be deployed anywhere when required in this new GBR world?
The 153s are a start but 150s and 156s could be used for this purpose as new units come on stream.

 

[yorksrob]

Surely it's now time for a reserve fleet of DMUs to be deployed anywhere when required in this new GBR world?
The 153s are a start but 150s and 156s could be used for this purpose as new units come on stream.

Well it's always been the way that older rolling stock would be kept for special use.

And it's not the old scenario that Become described whereby carriages would suit around all year. You'd have most weekends, summer weekdays, Christmas run-up, sports events etc. I'm a leisure oriented railway, such stock could be of use at least a third of the year.

 

[Mikey C]

If they could ever get them to work reliably enough, 769s would be perfect backup stock for peak holiday events...

 

[Annetts key]

I’m currently on a 80X train, which reminds me that it would help to encourage repeat business from passengers if the seats were far more comfortable…

And also it would help if the design of the train and the maintenance of the track were better. When travelling at 125MPH (or thereabouts), it’s not nice to experience ‘train turbulence’, where the coach judders up and down.

Every little helps as a certain supermarket advert goes…

And yes, I appreciate that the horrible 80X seats (at least the GWR IET / IEP) have almost certainly already been discussed to death somewhere here already.

I don’t want to reopen a discussion on any specific trains. Just make the general point that generally speaking the seats, comfort and ride quality of road cars is continuously getting better, but the opposite appears to be happening on the railways.

 

[Carlisle]

Well it's always been the way that older rolling stock would be kept for special use.

I guess keeping spare DMUs with all their associated electrical & mechanical equipment to maintain, works out significantly more expensive than the traditional practice of having spare loco hauled stock available in various sidings.

 

[JonathanH]

The 153s are a start but 150s and 156s could be used for this purpose as new units come on stream.

The role of the 153s (other than those in Wales and Scotland) right now is to yield spares to keep the 150s and 156s going.