Post Covid Passenger Rebound

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure that anyone has particularly been arguing for this have they? There's a case to be made for conversion of short unelectrified lines with only passenger traffic to convert to busways or even trolleybus routes, because these would actually provide more capacity than the train service, but not simply to new highways.

Guided busways were much-derided and do still have some problems, but the two main ones do seem to be mostly doing OK on their main sections now. And I still think the Cambs one has a nice branch-line charm to it.

 

[Starmill]

Guided busways were much-derided and do still have some problems, but the two main ones do seem to be mostly doing OK on their main sections now. And I still think the Cambs one has a nice branch-line charm to it.

They're not the sort of thing that enthusiasts tend to love but a modicum of grade separation, priority at any flat junctions, and fewer but fancy-looking stops is literally exactly what the bus industry in this country needs. I'd like to see one tried with overhead wire electrification and DC-battery buses. All of the energy efficiency and zero tailpipe emissions of a tramway, but all of the flexibility of a bus. Sadly this is well away from topic now.

 

[yorksrob]

They're not the sort of thing that enthusiasts tend to love but a modicum of grade separation, priority at any flat junctions, and fewer but fancy-looking stops is literally exactly what the bus industry in this country needs. I'd like to see one tried with overhead wire electrification and DC-battery buses. All of the energy efficiency and zero tailpipe emissions of a tramway, but all of the flexibility of a bus. Sadly this is well away from topic now.

If have thought regulated fares and coordinated ticketing are what the bus industry needs at present.

 

[Mikey C]

Guided busways were much-derided and do still have some problems, but the two main ones do seem to be mostly doing OK on their main sections now. And I still think the Cambs one has a nice branch-line charm to it.

They have massive advantages if you can funnel a number of routes down the guided section, but the buses can then funnel out to serve different destinations at the other end. Much more user friendly than expecting everyone to walk to a single station

 

[Bletchleyite]

They have massive advantages if you can funnel a number of routes down the guided section, but the buses can then funnel out to serve different destinations at the other end. Much more user friendly than expecting everyone to walk to a single station

Yes, that's one way the Cambs one works well, because there's no obvious single origin at the outer end past St Ives, it's mostly distributed villages plus Huntingdon.

If it was heavy rail or tram you'd need to go for European style integration, and everyone knows how bad the UK is at that.

 

[Mikey C]

Yes, that's one way the Cambs one works well, because there's no obvious single origin at the outer end past St Ives, it's mostly distributed villages plus Huntingdon.

If it was heavy rail or tram you'd need to go for European style integration, and everyone knows how bad the UK is at that.

But even then, what's more attractive
1) taking a bus to the rail head, then changing?
2) taking a bus all the way, including the high speed guided bus section?

The sheer cost of building tram lines to cover every village makes it unrealistic

 

[Bletchleyite]

But even then, what's more attractive
1) taking a bus to the rail head, then changing?
2) taking a bus all the way, including the high speed guided bus section?

If you assume a European style model with properly timed, guaranteed connections and through fares, that very much depends on what each type of vehicle is like, I reckon. Stagecoach's big tri-axle double deckers are reasonably nice and have capacity similar to a 2-part tram (though could do with better legroom), but if your villages have too small roads for those then it might be less clear cut in favour of bus.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Back on topic...

To me national % figures are meaningless, as the numbers in the southeast will drown out the numbers elsewhere. Numbers on Cornish branchlines or between Sheringham and Cromer could be up on before Covid, but are pin pricks when compared with the effect of reduced commuter numbers to Waterloo or Victoria.

A massive change has happened to office work patterns, and indeed the whole culture of commuting 5 days a week AND being in the office for 9am. Given the choice, who would voluntarily pay a fortune to every day stand on a cold platform at 7:30am to take a crowded train into London, when you don't have to do it any more?

"Macho" investment banks will insist on people being at the desk by 8, and early morning meetings, but lots of organisations will be happy to be far more flexible, and arrange meetings for later in the day so that people can come in off peak. And people are savvy now with split tickets and the use of the cheapest possible Gold Cards...

Thus the whole railway fare model needs reforming. The ridiculous variance between peak and off peak prices is untenable, when fewer people HAVE to travel in the morning peak. But that will also have to mean some sort of increase in off peak fares to compensate, or a new and cleverer way of charging for busy periods, which may include weekends or the evening peak.

Having just spent 100mins of my life listening to last weeks Transport Select Committee hearing into GBR there was a discussion about passenger numbers and the following figures were quoted for middle of March 22.

Business Travel - 33% pre covid and pretty static
Commuter Travel - 54% of pre covid levels but still seeing increases week on week
Leisure Travel - 100% of pre covid levels and still increasing.

Of course this is nationwide but the did indicate long distance commuting has been hit more than short distance commuting.

All in all the Undersecretary forecast that support to operators will be around £5.5B for 2021/22 and whilst more than they forecast at the start of the f/year they have seen better revenue income improvements than they expected post lifting of covid restrictions.

I also noted a repetitive statement from Haines and the Undersecretary that with National Rail Contracts the DfT can rapidly getting timetables changed to reflect changes in demand.

 

[Annetts key]

Having just spent 100mins of my life listening to last weeks Transport Select Committee hearing into GBR there was a discussion about passenger numbers and the following figures were quoted for middle of March 22.

Business Travel - 33% pre covid and pretty static
Commuter Travel - 54% of pre covid levels but still seeing increases week on week
Leisure Travel - 100% of pre covid levels and still increasing.

Of course this is nationwide but the did indicate long distance commuting has been hit more than short distance commuting.

Interesting. But without knowing either the ratio between how much of which group makes up the overall numbers, or actual numbers of passengers/journeys, it’s hard to compare to other figures.

Such as the overall percentage of use now compared to pre-COVID19. The current overall figure is around 72% (according to Network Rail).

 

[387star]

Two car Brighton to Worcester this morning severely overcrowded by Chichester passengers left behind everywhere

 

[mrmartin]

I do wonder if the railway will see problems like at airports now. For a related example, stansted express is running at half the frequency it used to, but with passenger numbers at the airport massively increasing.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I do wonder if the railway will see problems like at airports now. For a related example, stansted express is running at half the frequency it used to, but with passenger numbers at the airport massively increasing.

It's already seeing overcrowding. It can't suffer the same problem as the actual airports as there's no security check.

 

[dk1]

Spent the last few days in glorious Devon. Loadings on all trains are as good as I’ve seen at the height of Summer. Todays journey home to Norwich saw the 10:55 Paignton-Paddington as well loaded as the Penzance services after Taunton. Standing room only on the tube to Liverpool Street before another very well loaded departure to Norfolk.

 

[yorksrob]

Spent the last few days in glorious Devon. Loadings on all trains are as good as I’ve seen at the height of Summer. Todays journey home to Norwich saw the 10:55 Paignton-Paddington as well loaded as the Penzance services after Taunton. Standing room only on the tube to Liverpool Street before another very well loaded departure to Norfolk.

To add to that, I was on the Exeter St David's - Okehampton service today and am pleased to report that the trains were well loaded - not full, but busy in both directions.

Not bad for a pre-holiday season weekday !

 

[dk1]

To add to that, I was on the Exeter St David's - Okehampton service today and am pleased to report that the trains were well loaded - not full, but busy in both directions.

Not bad for a pre-holiday season weekday !

Exactly. Staying at The Grand so seen plenty of activity at Torquay Station as well. Good to see it back to normal. Like nothing ever happened.

 

[yorksrob]

Exactly. Staying at The Grand so seen plenty of activity at Torquay Station as well. Good to see it back to normal. Like nothing ever happened.

Indeed. I can imagine it will be a busy summer in the South West !

 

[dk1]

I suppose another thing is all the fuel malarkey. It’s pricey & that’s if you can even get any. All helps public transport.

 

[fgwrich]

Spent the last few days in glorious Devon. Loadings on all trains are as good as I’ve seen at the height of Summer. Todays journey home to Norwich saw the 10:55 Paignton-Paddington as well loaded as the Penzance services after Taunton. Standing room only on the tube to Liverpool Street before another very well loaded departure to Norfolk.

Also adding to this, I've used the railways at least once a week for the last few weeks - on a Sunday heading into Paddington from Reading, I had to wait 4 IETs (3 x 9/10 car and 1 x 5) before I could finally get onto one, and that was a full and standing 10 car ex Bristol service. Another trip was down to Chichester via Fratton, the outbound was fairly busy (travelling midday on a mid week), while the afternoon certainly saw most of the services I used to get back pretty full and some standing. Even a trip down to Winchester involved using 2 fairly well loaded 10 car 444s. Granted, it's hard to say what the mix between commuter and leisure traffic was, but 2 of those 3 trips were made mid week and certainly had some considerable loadings.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I suppose another thing is all the fuel malarkey. It’s pricey & that’s if you can even get any. All helps public transport.

I'm going to the Leeds area this weekend. It's cost me over 90 quid, and that was with some clever split Advances from Trainsplit. I don't normally do Advances, but LNER's walk-up fares are outrageous.

My car, which isn't a small one, would cost considerably less than that even at current prices, I reckon around £70.

You're going to need diesel at heading towards £3/litre and rail fares unchanged for that balance to be tipped with typical diesel family cars, and that's with one person travelling.

 

[dk1]

I'm going to the Leeds area this weekend. It's cost me over 90 quid, and that was with some clever split Advances from Trainsplit. I don't normally do Advances, but LNER's walk-up fares are outrageous.

My car, which isn't a small one, would cost considerably less than that even at current prices, I reckon around £70.

You're going to need diesel at heading towards £3/litre and rail fares unchanged for that balance to be tipped with typical diesel family cars, and that's with one person travelling.

Just get the train & enjoy a few beers each way. Suppose the stress of filling up doesn’t help.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Just get the train & enjoy a few beers each way.

I am doing. But if I was feeling the squeeze financially, I'd not be doing, particularly if two of us or more were travelling. 90 quid is outrageous, and that was booked a week ahead. 50-60 walk-up (or Advance on the Day with the only quota limit being the seating capacity of the train) would be attractive (there's that National Railcard thing again ) but even then not for multiple people.

 

[yorksrob]

Twenty quid for not having the hassle of driving sounds like a good deal to me (I don't drive, but it sounds like a lot of rigmarole and responsibility to me).

 

[Bletchleyite]

Twenty quid for not having the hassle of driving sounds like a good deal to me (I don't drive, but it sounds like a lot of rigmarole and responsibility to me).

For one person.

For two, that'd be a premium of £110, or just under £50 with a Two Together (and that assumes we already held the Railcard). That's simply too much to even vaguely justify.

Before you say "parking", I'm staying at a Premier Inn with free parking.

 

[yorksrob]

For one person.

For two, that'd be a premium of £110, or just under £50 with a Two Together (and that assumes we already held the Railcard). That's simply too much to even vaguely justify.

Before you say "parking", I'm staying at a Premier Inn with free parking.

Oh yes, if you've got lots of people, the railways not very cost effective.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Oh yes, if you've got lots of people, the railways not very cost effective.

Two people isn't lots of people. Most leisure travel involves two people, or three-four if there are kids (though the Family and Friends Railcard makes kids travel at a good value price).

The railway is poor value for one person in many cases (most notably peak-time travel). It is incredibly poor value for multiple people.

 

[yorksrob]

Two people isn't lots of people. Most leisure travel involves two people, or three-four if there are kids (though the Family and Friends Railcard makes kids travel at a good value price).

The railway is poor value for one person in many cases (most notably peak-time travel). It is incredibly poor value for multiple people.

There are certainly flows where the railway is poor value for the majority of people.

Generally intermediate distance journeys without company offers.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There are certainly flows where the railway is poor value for the majority of people.

Generally intermediate distance journeys without company offers.

I think I'd say there are almost no long distance journeys where, unless booked months in advance, it is good value for two or more adults.

For one person when a Railcard is not applicable, it more often than not isn't.

London is that one exception where driving is so insufferably grim that paying over the odds is worthwhile.

 

[Ken H]

I think I'd say there are almost no long distance journeys where, unless booked months in advance, it is good value for two or more adults.

For one person when a Railcard is not applicable, it more often than not isn't.

London is that one exception where driving is so insufferably grim that paying over the odds is worthwhile.

Going to leeds is getting harder. The city centre is becoming a huge pedestrianised zone. Makes it inaccesable to those who have difficulty walking. Even the buses are being squeezed out.

 

[miklcct]

As I suspected. It’s SWR that is going to be the biggest loser here. It’s whole catchment has changed its patterns more than anywhere else and it’s population in its outer area must be getting older now in any case because it’s too bloody expensive for most people to move out to. Even the metro stuff is mostly through affluent land and so will suffer big time. I reckon the rest of the network in the SE has such a mixed catchment with plenty of young people who don’t have cars it will hold to pretty well.

I predict with no science revenue will be down by about 40 per cent for SWR to about 20 elsewhere in the SE

What's different between SWR and other companies in the South, including Southern and Southeastern? And what does your outer area mean? Do you mean beyond Poole / Salisbury or beyond Basingstoke / Haslemere?

A better question is why shouldn't it be cheaper to drive.

Railways are incredibly expensive to build, operate and maintain which means those costs have to be covered somehow. And if you think more subsidy is "the right thing to do" perhaps you could explain why taxpayers should be on the hook for part funding 10-20% of journeys and not the other 80-90%.

The point of railway is that it is a "mass transit" - it is designed to carry hundreds or thousands of people on a single train, so the massive cost is shared by hundreds or thousands of passenger. Railways are built because it is impossible to carry the huge amount of people on roads, even with all buses packed full.

On Northern I've not seen any evidence that weekday off-peak services are busier than pre-COVID except where the pre-COVID frequency hasn't been reinstated. The peak time trains I've been on are busy but that's due to Northern not reinstating peak time extras, opposed to passenger levels returning to pre-COVID levels.

Saturday usage, on the other hand, now seems to be higher than pre-COVID. Possibly more people working from home has made going somewhere different at the weekend more attractive? I think the solution is:
1. 'Peak time extras' to be introduced on Saturdays. I don't mean at the same time as they run on weekdays but to run extras at the busiest times on Saturdays. So this could mean morning extras between 10:30am and 12:30pm, instead of between 6:30 and 9:30 like on weekdays.
2. Sunday services to be enhanced to Saturday levels. This will make Sunday travel more attractive and reduce the number of people who are travelling on Saturdays just because the Sunday service is rubbish.

In ticketing terms maybe Saturdays need a cheap early bird return ticket to incentivise people to travel early and avoid the busy trains which come later in the morning.

After all the COVID cuts, Saturday services have already been more than Monday - Friday service - even more than Monday - Friday peak. For example, in the SWR long-distance network, Weymouth trains are kept at 2 trains per hours on Saturday, but have already been reduced to 1 train per hour on Monday - Friday, even in peak hours (though it will return to 2 in the May 2022 timetable).

And the Monday - Friday peak service is now worse than Monday - Friday off-peak as well as some peak-time extra has been cut! For example, there is only 1 fast train per hour from Waterloo to Bournemouth in the evening peak, compared to 2 off-peak. In the original pre-COVID timetable, both Waterloo - Bournemouth peak trains divided at Southampton to form a fast to Weymouth and a slow to Bournemouth / Poole, but now only 1 of them do so and the other just have all 10 cars run slow; while for off-peak, the change is to cut 1 of the trains back to Poole without going to Weymouth, without affecting Waterloo - Bournemouth services.

In terms of ticketing, SWR made a change last September to cater for the varied demand. Basically, before the reform, super off-peak meant weekend, and now, super off-peak means arrival into London after 14:01 Monday - Saturdays, or departing after 12:01 for non-London journeys. The effect is that Monday - Friday afternoon travellers have got their fares reduced, but Saturday morning travellers have got their fares increased.

And now, the cheapest tier of advance can still be bought for the traditional evening peak trains (I have already bought a bunch of cheap advance fares on peak trains starting from Waterloo, most of them on the SW9153 departing 17:05 Waterloo, some on SW9151 departing 16:35 Waterloo), and advance can still be bought for peak trains on the night before departure as well - I used an £7.90 advance ticket bought near the end of 6/4 for travel on a peak train SW9257 on 7/4 departing 18:05 Waterloo from Basingstoke to Bournemouth.

In contrast, I can no longer find any advances for any of the coming weekends for my typical journeys and have to buy flexible tickets instead.

The trouble is that everyone can be right if you change locations, dates, time of day, how many travelling etc etc !

My personal views are that:-
- the trains don't usually go where I want to go
- they don't run when I want to travel
- they are often too expensive for one, let alone a family
- nowadays, the trains can be too unreliable

My personal view is that, the trains usually want to go where I want to go, but they don't run on Sunday morning when I want to travel. If they are available, the off-peak fare is usually at a reasonable cost given the wide availability of railcards. Also, MTR is well-known in the world for its punctuality and this carries over into SWR as well, with significant delays only happen in extreme circumstances out of the company's control such as bad weather, Network Rail infrastructure failure, or passenger incident.

In some areas Arriva used to have off-peak singles and peak singles.

Return tickets are rare for most bus operators now. If the single is more than 50% of the cost of the day ticket you buy a day ticket if you want to make a return journey, otherwise you buy two singles. The advantage of a day ticket is that if your journey involves multiple buses run by the same operator then you don't have to pay extra for having to change to another service.

Both bus operators in Bournemouth have return tickets which are less than 2 singles and less than a day ticket. They are still in commonplace. For example, for a certain service, a single is £3.10 while a return is £4.30, and a day ticket covering the zones needed is £4.60. The return price for most routes are kept at about £0.20 or £0.30 below a day ticket.

However, I seldom buy return tickets. I normally use either "single journey" (15 or 30 minutes) carnets or multi-operator day tickets because there are 2 operators competing on the same route and I just board whichever bus arrives first.

Yes - the busiest times are still the traditional peaks. Hence why engineering work still makes sense overnight and at weekends, especially Sundays, which are the least worst option. Closing the railway during weekdays (outside of Christmas and Easter blockades) would be very damaging to this traffic.

This is not my experience. Evening peak trains are usually quieter than weekend trains now on my local route (Weymouth - Waterloo).

Price doesn't even come into the equation when the door to door trip including rail simply isn't viable - ie the train doesn't go where people want to go and/or there is no reasonable means of getting both to and from the station either end.

ie. the process is subconsciously something like

Do I really need to do the thing I was planning on doing? (ie do I need to work/buy a new shirt/watch the match etc),
Do I really need to make the trip at all? (ie can I work from home instead/shop on line/watch the match on the telly)
What transport modes are available for my door to door trip? (walk to station plus train plus bus, drive all the way, drive to station then get tube at the other end etc)
Of those that are available, can any be ruled out on practical grounds- ie I can't carry my weekly shopping
Of those left, what are the respective estimated journey times including connections for interchange and frequency, both 'known' and 'unknown' including likelihood of traffic congestion, fear of cancellations/delays. That will rule out a few more options
Of those left, how much will it cost for the party I am travelling with?
Other factors, such as perceived crowding, safety risks, personal preferences including being in control - some people like it, others are happy for someone else to do the driving

Public transport (including rail) more often then not often fails at step 3 compared with driving

For leisure travel, the process is like:
1. Do I want (not need) to do the thing I am planning on doing?
2. Do I need to make the trip in order to do the thing I want?
3. What transport modes are available for my door to door trip? (walk to station plus train plus bus, hire a car and drive all the way, take the train and hire a car at the other end, etc.)
4. Of those that are available, can any be ruled out on practical grounds?
5. Of those left, what are the respective estimated journey times, assuming everything runs to the timetable (or headway in case of London Buses), and how much will it cost for the party?
6. Do I still want to take the trip in order to do the thing I am planning on doing?

So the question is how to change the perception? The same applies to cycling. Lots of people think I'm mad because I ride along busy roads but I'm still here after 20 years.

As regards the cost of driving, once someone owns a car, the cost of any one trip is marginal, apart from the fuel.

"Once someone owns a car" is a precondition. If one doesn't own a car, or can sell his car, the cost of will be the total cost of car ownership.

People will look to cut costs

That's it. The choice is do I take the car I already own and pay for or take the train today. Not shall I take the train and get rid of the car forever, so fixed motoring costs don't really factor in and marginal maintenance costs are never going to cost as much as the difference between fare and fuel.

Another choice I do every year is to buy a car or not, or in case of owning a car, to sell it or not.

The main reason is that a coach driver earns about half what a train driver does, and the train usually has a conductor while the bus doesn't. But also buses are typically limited to 50 or 60 miles / hour, so can afford slightly lower safety standards.

Exactly. Anywhere which only has enough demand for a two coach train doesn't have enough demand for a heavy rail service. I think it is accepted that there will always be a few special cases, particularly in very rural areas, but in the main rail isn't suitable for these markets.

However, a train carries much more passenger than a bus. According to MTR, a fully-loaded 12-car train (a suburban mainline train) can carry 3750 passengers and run at 2.5-minute intervals, about 86000 passengers per hour, while a fully-loaded 8-car underground train can carry 2500 passengers, carrying about 75000 passengers per hour on 2-minute headway. 75000 passengers per hour mean 500 fully-loaded 12.8 m double decker buses carrying 150 people each bus in an hour, more than 8 full buses every minute; in other words, one fully-loaded 8-car underground train is equal to more than 16 fully-loaded double decker buses.

Any railways which only have enough demand for a 2-coach train every 2 hours should be closed and replaced with buses which serve every village instead, unless the terrain is so difficult that a safe road can't be built for buses.

Two people isn't lots of people. Most leisure travel involves two people, or three-four if there are kids (though the Family and Friends Railcard makes kids travel at a good value price).

The railway is poor value for one person in many cases (most notably peak-time travel). It is incredibly poor value for multiple people.

I will have a group of 4 going to South Wales in the Easter holiday for all 4 days. 3 of us have a 26-30 railcard, the other is an overseas visitor.
We have already ruled out car travel on day 1 as the trip is easily public transport (trains and buses) accessible, and the total public transport fare for the group is about £50. Considering the cost of hiring a car for one day and driving distance will be about 100 miles round trip, taking public transport is a no-brainer.
For day 2, the destination is a bit rural but, fortunately, it's a Saturday so we have a useful bus service, and we can buy a group day ticket for under £20.
For day 3, the destination is also rural but, it still have an hourly bus service, although we don't know yet if we need to go there before the first bus, as the timing will only be known after day 2. In case it is unworkable, I will hire a car from a car club.
For day 4, the destination is also rural, but the bus service only runs Mon - Sat. It is about a 5 km walk from the nearest train station so it is doable if we go light. Afterwards we will all return to Bristol. So the value of a car is mainly to save us from the walk, and we will discuss it later if to hire it or not, probably in conjunction with day 3.

So, even for a group of full car, a car may not represent the best value if good public transport is available.

 

[ar10642]

Another choice I do every year is to buy a car or not, or in case of owning a car, to sell it or not.

Virtually nobody is going to make a decision like this with bus and rail fares being what they are. Especially with a family.

Another example, bus this timd. We now live in a village and my kids school is 7 miles each way. Diesel about £2 return parking again free or low cost (£1.50 2 hours). The bus for an adult is £8.30 return (which I'd have to do twice) and £4.15 for the two children. It runs hourly at the worst possible times to get them to/from their school, stops at 6PM, no service at all on Sunday or Bank Holidays.

We are not serious about reducing car use in this country at all.