Russia invades Ukraine

[yorksrob]

Which will also go to the heart of our economies due to globalism.

And the most effected? The poor. And will they get the help they need? Well, they already aren't....

As always it depends on how dependant we are on those countries.

Ultimately sanctioning key individuals won't affect Russia's ability to wage war. Restricting its economy will.

 

[MattRat]

As always it depends on how dependant we are on those countries.

Ultimately sanctioning key individuals won't affect Russia's ability to wage war. Restricting its economy will.

Other countries are dependant, and their dependency affects oil and gas prices due to globalism, and that's just talking oil and gas, nothing else we import from Russia.

 

[yorksrob]

Other countries are dependant, and their dependency affects oil and gas prices due to globalism, and that's just talking oil and gas, nothing else we import from Russia.

This is true, but there's not a lot else we can do at this point.

 

[MattRat]

This is true, but there's not a lot else we can do at this point.

All I'm saying is, to go down this route, we need to protect the poor in our countries from the worst of it first. Otherwise we'll destroy both our countries in the process, and I doubt anyone wants that.

 

[Yew]

Just answer the question as to how you might perceive 100,000 enemy troops on several Russian bases in the Republic of Ireland. I'm not really prepared to entertain anyone who doesn't admit that would be a concern for them.

Hypothetical situations that are that far removed from fact are nothing more that a rhetorical trap.

 

[yorksrob]

All I'm saying is, to go down this route, we need to protect the poor in our countries from the worst of it first. Otherwise we'll destroy both our countries in the process, and I doubt anyone wants that.

I don't disagree with that.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Just answer the question as to how you might perceive 100,000 enemy troops on several Russian bases in the Republic of Ireland. I'm not really prepared to entertain anyone who doesn't admit that would be a concern for them.

Of course it would be a concern. But if the Republic of Ireland - which is after all a democracy - freely chose to align itself with Russia, then that is a choice it has to be free to make. I would imagine that the UK's response would, very sensibly, involve a vast increase in military spending and lots of diplomatic efforts to persuade the Irish Government of our concerns, but I would not anticipate it involving an invasion of Ireland or a violent attempt to overthrow the legitimate Government there.

 

[AlterEgo]

Yes, of course it would be a concern because we know the nature of the Russian state. Nevertheless, there is a whole world of difference between being concerned by your neighbour and invading it.

And the Russians are concerned about the history of invading foreign countries to effect regime change by NATO countries.

Then it is in our interest to ensure that Russia is weakened enough that it can't effectively control the affairs of other European countries.

A weak Russia is in nobody’s interests. Russia always, always elects strongman leaders and that is just the nature of the very unwieldy Russian state (and previously the empire).

One thing that is not going to be effective is impounding the odd yacht or football club here or there. The economic sanctions need to go to the heart of the Russian economy to have any effect.

Why? Who actually is in a position to influence Putin? A hundred billionaires or the proletariat of Yekaterinburg?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Mar 2022 ==

Of course it would be a concern. But if the Republic of Ireland - which is after all a democracy - freely chose to align itself with Russia, then that is a choice it has to be free to make. I would imagine that the UK's response would, very sensibly, involve a vast increase in military spending and lots of diplomatic efforts to persuade the Irish Government of our concerns, but I would not anticipate it involving an invasion of Ireland or a violent attempt to overthrow the legitimate Government there.

Oh please! It would absolutely interfere at the very least to change the regime, whether by sponsoring internal dissent or by interfering in electoral processes.

 

[MattRat]

Oh please! It would absolutely interfere at the very least to change the regime, whether by sponsoring internal dissent or by interfering in electoral processes.

And the Russians could say the same about Ukraine. I'm not saying it's true, just pointing out how easy it could be to jump the gun.

 

[Annetts key]

I meant the poor in our country would suffer too, due to globalism. It's shooting yourself in the foot. But I guess our own worst off don't matter as long as we stick it to the Russians, amirite? (Sarcasm)

The poor in this country, plus in most other countries were already suffering due to the increase in the cost of oil, gas and other oil derived products, plus the increased costs of transport (including goods) due to this.

So, sanctions will of course make it worse. But that’s not the end of it. Exports of food from both Russia and Ukraine will likely decrease, and this may have an even bigger effect on the poor, as the prices of some types of food rocket upwards in price.

But there is no easy answer. Our democratic governments are far from perfect. And I can’t see them significantly raising taxes in order to provide sufficient help to the poor to fully compensate for all the rising prices.

 

[MattRat]

The poor in this country, plus in most other countries were already suffering due to the increase in the cost of oil, gas and other oil derived products, plus the increased costs of transport (including goods) due to this.

So, sanctions will of course make it worse. But that’s not the end of it. Exports of food from both Russia and Ukraine will likely decrease, and this may have an even bigger effect on the poor, as the prices of some types of food rocket upwards in price.

But there is no easy answer. Our democratic governments are far from perfect. And I can’t see them significantly raising taxes in order to provide sufficient help to the poor to fully compensate for all the rising prices.

I never said raise taxes, I don't care what they do as long as the poor get help.

 

[brad465]

How long before Putin has build "Berlin wall 2" to stop more of this:

Russia faces brain drain as thousands flee abroad

Many Russians who can afford it have fled to nearby countries since Russia invaded Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

Outside Georgia's parliament, Yevgeny Lyamin heaves boxes of clothes and food parcels on to a waiting truck bound for Ukraine.
He is one of more than 25,000 Russians to have arrived in Georgia since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russians have been struggling to find affordable accommodation in all the major cities. Many can be seen wandering around the capital, Tbilisi, with their suitcases and often even their pets.
A blue-and-yellow ribbon is attached to the lapel of Yevgeny's trench-coat - the colours of the Ukrainian flag. It was these ribbons that got him arrested at an anti-war protest in Russia, a day after it launched its war on Ukraine.
"I understood the best way to act against Putin's regime would be my emigration from Russia," says the 23-year old politics graduate. "It's my responsibility to do anything I can to help the Ukrainians."
The exodus does not stop at Georgia. The EU, US, UK and Canada have closed their airspace to Russian flights, so they are heading for countries where flights are still permitted and where visas are not required, such as Turkey, Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Many have fled to Armenia.
According to one estimate by a Russian economist, as many as 200,000 Russians have left their country since the start of the war.

Belarusians are on the move too, fleeing repression and the Western sanctions imposed on authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko's government for collaborating with Russia's Vladimir Putin.
That has prompted prices to surge on last-minute flights and rental accommodation in the main host cities, such as Istanbul and Armenia's capital, Yerevan.
"A one-way flight to Istanbul cost me and my husband more than our combined monthly income," said Anya, who did not want to give her surname.
For her the moment of decision came with a new "state betrayal" law that has come into force in Russia. Anyone expressing support for Ukraine could face jail sentences of up to 20 years and Anya believed she could be a target.
"Fear of closed borders, political repression and forced military service is in our DNA. I remember my grandmother telling me stories about the state of fear they lived in during Stalin's time, and now we are experiencing it," she said.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Mar 2022 ==

@Nicktolhurst is a Twitter user I follow and is often ahead of the game on political scoops, including on reports/events in the invasion so far. There are many things from him I've wanted to share here, but because he's not a blue tick account and his sources are confidential, it's hard to share them as others may not trust him. However, a revelation posted last night has now been picked up and quoted by some MPs and former FT editor Lionel Barber saying it should receive more attention (Nick also states Private Eye and the Guardian have reported on it before).

The revelation is that The Telegraph is estimated to have received millions of pounds since 2007 from the Russian State News Agency RIA Novosti:

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1502763923812065287

+UPDATE+ The Telegraph Newspaper is estimated "to have received many millions" from the Russian State News Agency - RIA Novosti - to run Russia reports from 2007 onwards. During this time Telegraph's reporting on Putin softened - while the paper became increasingly anti Europe.

Various media outlets such as the Guardian & Private Eye have reported on this. However it is still unclear how much money was diverted to the Telegraph for this. According to some reports the figure was over 500 000 yearly for a decade. The final figure may exceed 5 million.

Continued...

Thread contains relevant images/links.

https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1503006735937814530

This story should receive more attention. Barclay twins - mega millionaire owners of the Telegraph - did not need to take Russian money. But they did and they paid Boris Johnson a fat retainer to write his weekly column. Recycled dirty money is one way to see this arrangement

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Other countries are dependant, and their dependency affects oil and gas prices due to globalism, and that's just talking oil and gas, nothing else we import from Russia.

Gas is still flowing through the pipelines into Western Europe and is being paid for. If the West was serious about sanctions it would shut the pipelines down but it realises there will be serious consequences in doing that as it will lead to shortages. However deep Germans pockets are it doesn't have the infrastructure to import gas from anywhere else. They are not the only country in EU who are massively locked into Russian Gas as well as oil and a surprising high level of diesel from Russian refineries.

So currently it seems its approach is to sanction the people of Russia in the vein hope it starts some level of opposition to what Putin is doing which would be great if it works but Russia is still effectively a Police state so its not going to happen overnight unless there is a huge uprising. So this leaves us with a slow campaign that neither side can win but it leads to massive impact on Ukrainian people.

 

[AM9]

How long before Putin has build "Berlin wall 2" to stop more of this:

Russia faces brain drain as thousands flee abroad

Many Russians who can afford it have fled to nearby countries since Russia invaded Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Mar 2022 ==

@Nicktolhurst is a Twitter user I follow and is often ahead of the game on political scoops, including on reports/events in the invasion so far. There are many things from him I've wanted to share here, but because he's not a blue tick account and his sources are confidential, it's hard to share them as others may not trust him. However, a revelation posted last night has now been picked up and quoted by some MPs and former FT editor Lionel Barber saying it should receive more attention (Nick also states Private Eye and the Guardian have reported on it before).

The revelation is that The Telegraph is estimated to have received millions of pounds since 2007 from the Russian State News Agency RIA Novosti:

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1502763923812065287

Thread contains relevant images/links.

https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1503006735937814530

Surely the issue of the DT and it's involvement with Russia warrants a thread on it's own to allow less conspiracy based posts on the physical aspects of the invasion.

 

[birchesgreen]

The revelation is that The Telegraph is estimated to have received millions of pounds since 2007 from the Russian State News Agency RIA Novosti

Can well believe it, Russian links into our establishment are deep and have gone on for years. A certain politician has had shadowy Russian links since the early 80s and involvement with the KGB and FSB. Still he is only the Prime Minister now so probably not important.

 

[MattRat]

Can well believe it, Russian links into our establishment are deep and have gone on for years. A certain politician has had shadowy Russian links since the early 80s and involvement with the KGB and FSB. Still he is only the Prime Minister now so probably not important.

I mean, point to anyone in our parliament who you can guarantee doesn't have some sort of ties to Russia.

 

[yorksrob]

The reality is that we've had a comparatively open relationship with Russia over the past twenty years. That means that a lot of senior politicians and other figures will have had dealings with it.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The reality is that we've had a comparatively open relationship with Russia over the past twenty years. That means that a lot of senior politicians and other figures will have had dealings with it.

In some respects trying to bring Russia closer to Western Europe was good statecraft when Yeltsin came to power but as soon as Putin got in and things started to regress again we should have re-evaluated how close those relations should have been but we got too far in and liked the benefits.

 

[yorksrob]

In some respects trying to bring Russia closer to Western Europe was good statecraft when Yeltsin came to power but as soon as Putin got in and things started to regress again we should have re-evaluated how close those relations should have been but we got too far in and liked the benefits.

Indeed. I think it's because it's been a gradual worsening of the state of Russia since Putin came to power, there's been no one event that's been significant enough to cause the West to re-evaluate it's relationship. For this country, the Salisbury poisonings must have come close but we were perhaps in too deep.

The current situation however is an order of magnitude greater than anything else and that is causing a re-evaluation.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Indeed. I think it's because it's been a gradual worsening of the state of Russia since Putin came to power, there's been no one event that's been significant enough to cause the West to re-evaluate it's relationship. For this country, the Salisbury poisonings must have come close but we were perhaps in too deep.

The current situation however is an order of magnitude greater than anything else and that is causing a re-evaluation.

Indeed but even thats taken them weeks to react when really if the intelligence was that strong they should have been taking action before teh invasion. Might not have changed anything but at least Putin would have been put on notice.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed but even thats taken them weeks to react when really if the intelligence was that strong they should have been taking action before teh invasion. Might not have changed anything but at least Putin would have been put on notice.

True. I suppose the danger of acting before would have been feeding the narrative of how the West is "against" Russia and used as justification for the aggression.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A certain politician has had shadowy Russian links since the early 80s and involvement with the KGB and FSB. Still he is only the Prime Minister now so probably not important.

Could you substantiate that? On a quick Google all I can find is the question mark over whether Boris intervened over Evgeny Lebedev's peerage (Evgeny has not as far as I'm aware himself been directly linked with the KGB), and that Boris once met his father, who did once work for the KGB (nothing odd about that by itself - politicians meet all sorts of people all the time). Neither of those would justify claiming Boris has had shadowy Russian links since the early 80s. Do you have more?

 

[tommy2215]

American journalist Brent Renaud has been killed in Ukraine by Russian forces. Very saddening to hear about it but will be interesting to see how America responds. As someone who has consistently argued against any sort of military intervention, it is getting harder and harder to maintain that stance.

 

[Scotrail314209]

American journalist Brent Renaud has been killed in Ukraine by Russian forces. Very saddening to hear about it but will be interesting to see how America responds. As someone who has consistently argued against any sort of military intervention, it is getting harder and harder to maintain that stance.

Is it confirmed whether the Russians killed the journalist on purpose? It sounds like he may have been caught in the crossfire.

It's also been confirmed he wasn't on a job for the New York Times.

As it happened: Zelenskiy urges Nato to implement no-fly zone

This live blog has now closed. Follow the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war here.

www.theguardian.com

Clifford Levy, the deputy managing editor of the New York Times issued a statement on Twitter clarifying that Renaud was not on assignment for the paper, contrary to earlier reports.

 

[tommy2215]

Is it confirmed whether the Russians killed the journalist on purpose? It sounds like he may have been caught in the crossfire.

It's also been confirmed he wasn't on a job for the New York Times.

As it happened: Zelenskiy urges Nato to implement no-fly zone

This live blog has now closed. Follow the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war here.

www.theguardian.com

Its obvious though that if you attack as recklessly as Russia are doing, then you are going to kill non-Ukranians.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Its obvious though that if you attack as recklessly as Russia are doing, then you are going to kill non-Ukranians.

Oh absolutely, but I don't think it's a reason for military intervention. There's bound to be non Ukranians killed.

 

[tommy2215]

Oh absolutely, but I don't think it's a reason for military intervention. There's bound to be non Ukranians killed.

You are right, but I fear that's where we are heading if Russian tactics continue to get more and more abhorrent.

 

[AM9]

You are right, but I fear that's where we are heading if Russian tactics continue to get more and more abhorrent.

I think todays activities in close proximity to the Polish border carries a far greater risk of escalation. Would Poland be justified in responding if Russian ordnance fell in their territory. If it did, I would imagine that an ABM system or two might be brought to the border to nullify or at least limit the possibility that Russian aerial activity doesn't impinge on a NATO state's territory.

 

[birchesgreen]

Could you substantiate that? On a quick Google all I can find is the question mark over whether Boris intervened over Evgeny Lebedev's peerage (Evgeny has not as far as I'm aware himself been directly linked with the KGB), and that Boris once met his father, who did once work for the KGB (nothing odd about that by itself - politicians meet all sorts of people all the time). Neither of those would justify claiming Boris has had shadowy Russian links since the early 80s. Do you have more?

Well there are some interesting things here.

https://twitter.com/WriterJackWhite/status/1480249429525516290

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Well there are some interesting things here.

https://twitter.com/WriterJackWhite/status/1480249429525516290

Riiiiiiight! So in 1980 when Boris would've been about 16 he went on holiday to the USSR and posted a jokey post-card back to his sister and on that basis you're claiming that he has had "shadowy Russian links since the early 80s and involvement with the KGB and FSB"?!?!?!? Other replies in that thread mention a few other alleged events that generally seem equally innocuous. Note also that the Tweet you posted gratuitously shows photos of Putin and Brezhnev alongside a photo of Boris despite them them not apparently having any connection with the story being reported.

I get that you don't like Boris and the Tories (and to be clear, I don't think highly of his personality) but that Twitter thread is just basically trying to make up some muck out of nothing to throw at him. Surely you can do better than that before you start throwing very serious allegations around?