Cloud Strife
Established Member
- Joined
- 25 Feb 2014
- Messages
- 2,964
That's what I expect to happen. Using a nuclear weapon in an offensive war would almost certainly cause severe anxiety among the other nuclear nations, including potentially raising the stakes so high as to simply bankrupt Russia until they agree to decommission all their nuclear weapons.They'll probably resort to making Kyiv "Grozny II", if they have enough artillery weapons left to do that.
If they are struggling to get supplies to the forces that are already there, would it help to add more?
No. This is often described as one of the problems with the invasion - Ukraine is just too big and too populous to control with military forces, especially when the resistance is being fuelled with Western weapons that the Russians have apparently no answer for. More troops means more supplies, which means more convoys that are sitting ducks. The one outside Kyiv is being permitted to stay, but you have to wonder how they're coping with supplies in this situation. With the weather about to turn very cold in/around Kyiv, they might be in even more trouble than before.
The most significant loss for Russia is exposing its military for the world to see on television in a full scale war and seeing the grotesque mistakes they are making. Horribly unprofessional and it has weakened Russia's hard power as well as eviscerating any soft power it had.
I can completely agree with this. At the start of the invasion, I gave Kyiv two weeks. It's now two weeks, and Russia is nowhere near capturing Kyiv. It's not the powerful monolith that we thought it was, it's a joke of an military that has had to resort to killing civilians and destroying residential areas to even gain control of them. There's absolutely nothing to be frightened of anymore, and I suspect the people in the Baltic States have been reassured by the utter failure of this policy. It also means that the mooted scenarios, such as the seizure of the Suwałki Gap, are quite unrealistic.
I just cannot see how Russia can win this war now. Kyiv will not surrender, and the only thing that seems to be left to the Russians is widespread genocide. But even genocide will require considerable resources, and if it starts happening, then they'll also have to contend with Ukrainians who will stop at nothing to destroy Russian forces. It's also worth pointing out that Ukraine hasn't even mobilised the general population yet, and there are reports on Polish Facebook groups that Western Ukraine has started to remove some checkpoints and barricades.