Russia invades Ukraine

[brad465]

UK Gas up 30% today OK fair amount of speculation but this will cripple the UK economy if its sustained.

Also look at wheat prices upto a 14 year high and then the amount of countries whose currencies are dropping like a stone against US dollar which will compound there ability to import food. The rest of the globe will be drawn into its own chaos soon as economic issues in countries lead to food shortages then civil disorder.

The West needs to tread carefully about blowing up the major economies as it it will be equally weakened if they don't manage it carefully.

In Russia the Ruble has sunk even further, now around 1USD - 150 Ruble. I think civil disorder is highly likely to hit Russia sooner than the rest of the world if Russian citizens think they can get away with it.

I think it's a perfectly reasonable position to take if I'm honest. The immediate priority is surely to put an end to the killing and destruction. There will be people who say Ukraine shouldn't concede a thing to Putin (and they'd be right if there were any justice) but the reality is he needs to be seen to have achieved something.

I'm reasonably confident now that making concessions won't embolden Putin, which was the danger as others have (quite rightly) pointed out. This invasion has been a disaster on every level and I'd be very surprised if he tries anything similar again.

This invasion has already gone on around 3-6x longer than Putin was believed to have thought it could be wrapped up in, and reports 3-4 days in were suggesting that the Russian army would start running out of supplies after 10+ days, and/or start rationing military equipment/weapons. This is day 12, so it maybe that, unless these reports are wrong, that Russia are forced into peace negotiations soon.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Mar 2022 ==






Satire is dead (again):

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1500886096837849099

FM #Lavrov: The goal of Russia’s special military operation is to stop any war that could take place on Ukrainian territory or that could start from there.

 

[Giugiaro]

Satire is dead (again):

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1500886096837849099

If the Russian Government was a stand-up comedy, by now the stage would have more tomatoes than Buñol has ever had.

 

[Yew]

If the Russian Government was a stand-up comedy, by now the stage would have more tomatoes than Buñol has ever had.

You haven't heard of the 2nd Russian Pacific Squadron - my favourite part was where they had an infestation of Chameleons, which were understandably hard to find...

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Ukraine is a heavily ethnically divided country

You might like to revisit this particular statement. According to this the proportion of the Ukrainian population (in July 2019) identifying as Ukrainian was 77.5% with Russians making up 17.2%. Then consider that the bulk of those Russians live in the Donbass or Crimea. As such the until recently unoccupied part of Ukraine was in fact overwhelmingly Ukrainian. The fact that some of those Ukrainians have Russian as their first tongue doesn't change that. After all there are some Welsh people whose first tongue is English, indeed some of them can barely speak a word of Welsh. But they don't feel any less Welsh because of that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It appears that the Kremlin has set out it's terms for peace. They're very much as I (and others) predicted.

1. Cease military action (which seems obvious);

2. Enshrine "neutrality" within Ukraine's constitution;

3. Recognise Crimea as Russian territory;

4. Recognise the two breakaway regions as independent.

This gives Putin a "victory" for domestic consumption which I suspect is his number one priority at this point. I'm not suggesting anybody should simply roll over here, I do however think it shows the Russians want out.

Nothing more than he wanted before the start of hostilities so why didn't he just up the diplomatic ante with the West and promote a summit rather than invade and completely undermine his position with 90% of the globe. Doesn't add up.

 

[DustyBin]

Nothing more than he wanted before the start of hostilities so why didn't he just up the diplomatic ante with the West and promote a summit rather than invade and completely undermine his position with 90% of the globe. Doesn't add up.

It’s a reasonable question to ask! My theory is that Putin thought Kyiv would quickly fall with little resistance, and Ukraine would become a client state before anybody could do anything about it. I’m convinced he thought it would be easy. I think what he’s now asking for represents a significant rolling back of ambitions to be honest.

 

[najaB]

I think what he’s now asking for represents a significant rolling back of ambitions to be honest.

It would be too much of a reward though. Giving up the eastern provinces and Crimea gifts Russia several hundred billion cubic feet of natural gas.

 

[brad465]

According to the thread from the below journalist, a prominent Russian General has been killed, called Vitaly Gerassimov:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500959074653024259

Jesus, Ukraine just killed Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army. At Kharkiv. Russia, if you're listening: delete your army.

(not to be confused with Gen. Valery Gerassimov, of the often misconstrued Gerassimov Doctrine)

Claimed by Ukrainian military intelligence. Confirmed a Russian source,

Continued

They say it's verified, and apparently this is the 3rd Russian General killed since the start of the invasion, which is a lot for that officer ranking.

Independent also have an article:

Ukraine claims it has killed another Russian general during fighting in Kharkiv

Officials say fighting also killed ‘a number’ of senior Russian army officers

www.independent.co.uk

Ukraine claims it has killed another Russian general during fighting in the city of Kharkiv.

The embattled country’s Ministry of Defence claimed that its forces had killed Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of the 41st Army of the Central Military District of Russia.

“A number of senior Russian army officers were also killed and wounded,” the department claimed on Monday.

“Vitaly Gerasimov took part in the second Chechen war and the Russian military operation in Syria. He received a medal ‘for the return of the Crimea,’” they added.

“The data obtained also indicate significant problems with communication in the occupier’s army and with the evacuation of their broken units.”

The latest high-profile killing, comes after Andrei Sukhovetsky, the commanding general of the Russian 7th Airborne Division and a deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, was shot and killed by a sniper.

Mr Putin confirmed that a general had been killed in a speech updating the Russian people on the progress of the conflict, eight days into the deadly invasion.

 

[DustyBin]

It would be too much of a reward though. Giving up the eastern provinces and Crimea gifts Russia several hundred billion cubic feet of natural gas.

In principle I totally agree. I’m just not sure how at this point Ukraine could peacefully govern the two breakaway regions following eight years of conflict. As for Crimea I think it’s safe to say that from Putin’s perspective it’s non-negotiable. As wrong as it may feel to concede anything at all, for Russia it really would be the most costly, hollow “victory” imaginable.

 

[takno]

Lots of hand-wringing gifting of another country to Russia on here. There's not a great deal of evidence that the population of the occupied regions ever were majority for Russian rule, except perhaps in Ukraine. Making the position permanent is just storing up conflict for the future.

Moreover, Ukraine is left in a position where, far from Russia paying to rebuild, Ukraine are prevented from joining western groupings that allow us to help them do it. You'll just have a destroyed wasteland in place of a huge percentage of the world's farming infrastructure for decades.

At the end of the day, if Ukraine choose to accept this settlement (which they won't) then so be it. It's no basis for us to remove any sanctions though. Regime change in Russia really is non-negotiable for the west at this point

 

[najaB]

As wrong as it may feel to concede anything at all, for Russia it really would be the most costly, hollow “victory” imaginable.

Apparently there is enough gas to supply Europe for a couple of decades. Not sure how hollow that victory would be!

 

[Cloud Strife]

It’s a reasonable question to ask! My theory is that Putin thought Kyiv would quickly fall with little resistance, and Ukraine would become a client state before anybody could do anything about it. I’m convinced he thought it would be easy. I think what he’s now asking for represents a significant rolling back of ambitions to be honest.

Generally speaking, I think everyone expected Kyiv to fall within days. There was no way that anyone would have predicted that the Ukrainians would be so capable in combat, nor did anyone expect the Russians to struggle so badly. They (allegedly) have now committed almost 100% of what they amassed on the Ukrainian border before the invasion, and they've only managed to seize Kherson while putting Mariupol under siege. Kyiv and Kharkiv are not surrounded, and Kyiv in particular appears to be fearsomely garrisoned in preparation for an attack.

If (as expected) Russia starts drafting 18/19 year olds into the army, they're going to be torn to pieces against the Ukrainian territorial defences. The Ukrainians have adopted hit and run tactics, and there's no way that the average Russian teenager is going to have a chance.

There is one other fascinating aspect to this war. Everything that the Russians do is being analysed, interpreted and geolocated quickly. This is giving the Ukrainians the chance to move and hit things like fuel convoys, and the Russian logistics are clearly in major trouble.

On a personal level, I've just collected and delivered a lot of blankets, sleeping bags, mats and so on. There are a lot of refugees sleeping in Wrocław Główny tonight, and the absolute failure of the Polish Government to organise things has been a massive black mark against them. There are conflicts between NGOs and the government, and even the city of Wrocław (controlled by the opposition) has failed badly in providing support.

 

[GusB]

Generally speaking, I think everyone expected Kyiv to fall within days. There was no way that anyone would have predicted that the Ukrainians would be so capable in combat, nor did anyone expect the Russians to struggle so badly. They (allegedly) have now committed almost 100% of what they amassed on the Ukrainian border before the invasion, and they've only managed to seize Kherson while putting Mariupol under siege. Kyiv and Kharkiv are not surrounded, and Kyiv in particular appears to be fearsomely garrisoned in preparation for an attack.

If (as expected) Russia starts drafting 18/19 year olds into the army, they're going to be torn to pieces against the Ukrainian territorial defences. The Ukrainians have adopted hit and run tactics, and there's no way that the average Russian teenager is going to have a chance.

There is one other fascinating aspect to this war. Everything that the Russians do is being analysed, interpreted and geolocated quickly. This is giving the Ukrainians the chance to move and hit things like fuel convoys, and the Russian logistics are clearly in major trouble.

On a personal level, I've just collected and delivered a lot of blankets, sleeping bags, mats and so on. There are a lot of refugees sleeping in Wrocław Główny tonight, and the absolute failure of the Polish Government to organise things has been a massive black mark against them. There are conflicts between NGOs and the government, and even the city of Wrocław (controlled by the opposition) has failed badly in providing support.

Putin has definitely bitten off more than he can chew, but I feared that as time went on and as more resistance was encountered by his forces, the nastier he would become.

Maybe I'm being rather too optimistic here, but I'd still like to believe that the end of this conflict will be brought about by his own people refusing to play ball.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Putin has definitely bitten off more than he can chew, but I feared that as time went on and as more resistance was encountered by his forces, the nastier he would become.

I think for Putin and his inner military circle, it's become a war that they can't lose. They've ruined the Russian economy, so they need a victory parade in Kyiv at all costs.

Maybe I'm being rather too optimistic here, but I'd still like to believe that the end of this conflict will be brought about by his own people refusing to play ball.

There is a valid point in that the best way to bring about regime change in Russia is to keep Ukraine supplied with weaponry.

The only surprising thing for me so far is why the Ukrainian Special Forces haven't blown up the Kerch bridge yet.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The only surprising thing for me so far is why the Ukrainian Special Forces haven't blown up the Kerch bridge yet.

That crossed my mind that doing that would probably make things logistically a lot harder for Russians. But I'd imagine it's very hard for the Ukrainians to reach it - since to get to it you've either got to get across a sea that's probably crawling with Russian ships, or go very deep into Russian-controlled territory by land.

 

[AlterEgo]

You might like to revisit this particular statement. According to this the proportion of the Ukrainian population (in July 2019) identifying as Ukrainian was 77.5% with Russians making up 17.2%.

That's a similar ratio to the number of Protestants on the island of Ireland, a divided country which operates as two states.

Then consider that the bulk of those Russians live in the Donbass or Crimea.

Ukraine's Ulster.

Ukraine isn't the same as Northern Ireland but taking that into consideration I don't see how you cannot argue it is heavily divided. It does not properly function as a single entity and has had problems along these lines for 20 years or more. You only need to see how easily the Russians took Crimea to understand the difficulties Ukraine have in projecting their influence in what is supposedly their own country.

 

[Pete_uk]

Post conflict Ukraine won't have to join NATO to have a heavily armed army and air force with relatively modern jets. The British army has been training Ukrainians for some time now and that should continue, along with the air forces of those who have experience of whatever jets they decide to buy.

The hatred of Russia will ensure there are no problems with recruitment.

In the meantime, let's hope Putin has a Ceausescu moment.

 

[DustyBin]

Lots of hand-wringing gifting of another country to Russia on here. There's not a great deal of evidence that the population of the occupied regions ever were majority for Russian rule, except perhaps in Ukraine. Making the position permanent is just storing up conflict for the future.

Moreover, Ukraine is left in a position where, far from Russia paying to rebuild, Ukraine are prevented from joining western groupings that allow us to help them do it. You'll just have a destroyed wasteland in place of a huge percentage of the world's farming infrastructure for decades.

At the end of the day, if Ukraine choose to accept this settlement (which they won't) then so be it. It's no basis for us to remove any sanctions though. Regime change in Russia really is non-negotiable for the west at this point

I don’t consider myself a hand-wringer at all but there’s such a thing as reality whether we like it or not. The two breakaway regions have been effectively at war with the rest of Ukraine for the last eight years. In truth I don’t know enough about the situation to say whether they could actually be reintegrated or not, but on the face of it I’d say it looks unlikely.

The west can (and I suspect will) help rebuild Ukraine regardless of NATO or EU membership. The only way Russia are going to pay is if they are completely defeated militarily and forced to accept Ukraine’s terms which isn’t going to happen. There’s also the small matter of their economy being in tatters.

I agree we shouldn’t be lifting sanctions anytime soon and I’d like nothing more than to see Putin’s regime toppled from within. When will it happen though? Whilst personally I think he may well have inflicted a fatal wound upon himself here, I can’t see him being removed quite yet, and it’s certainly not a realistic aim as part of any peace talks.

Out of interest, how do you suggest we bring this conflict to an end?

Apparently there is enough gas to supply Europe for a couple of decades. Not sure how hollow that victory would be!

Somebody needs to buy it though!

Putin has definitely bitten off more than he can chew, but I feared that as time went on and as more resistance was encountered by his forces, the nastier he would become.

Maybe I'm being rather too optimistic here, but I'd still like to believe that the end of this conflict will be brought about by his own people refusing to play ball.

Agreed, but I think with Putin it’s all or nothing. If you refuse to play ball you also need to bullet him then and there (literally!). I’d be surprised if people aren’t thinking about it but it would take a lot of organisation behind the scenes.

 

[yorksrob]

On a personal level, I've just collected and delivered a lot of blankets, sleeping bags, mats and so on. There are a lot of refugees sleeping in Wrocław Główny tonight, and the absolute failure of the Polish Government to organise things has been a massive black mark against them. There are conflicts between NGOs and the government, and even the city of Wrocław (controlled by the opposition) has failed badly in providing support.

As a country, we don't seem to be particularly effective at handling refugees requirements at the moment either, judging by the border process.

 

[Giugiaro]

Post conflict Ukraine won't have to join NATO to have a heavily armed army and air force with relatively modern jets. The British army has been training Ukrainians for some time now and that should continue, along with the air forces of those who have experience of whatever jets they decide to buy.

Ukraine could have pursued individual military alliances to have some sort of support without having the whole of NATO involved.

Hell, I think?

Even if Russia were to attack all of Ukraine's allies at the same time, this would create a battle in several fronts...
... Which, given how the Ukrainian campaign is going, would be disastrous for Putin.

Obviously no one would like to face the Russians alone with Ukraine, thus why countries like Finland and Sweden are now considering siding with NATO before it's too late.

 

[DarloRich]

A further useful analysis piece from Institute for the Study of War: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 7

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The Russians are bringing up supplies and reinforcements as well as conducting artillery, air, and missile attacks to weaken defenses and intimidate defenders in advance of such an assault. It is too soon to gauge the likely effectiveness of any Russian attempt to complete the encirclement of Kyiv or to seize the city at this time. If Russian troops have been able to resupply, reorganize, and plan deliberate and coordinated simultaneous operations along the several axes of advance around and into the capital, they may be more successful in this operation than they have in previous undertakings. Operations near Kyiv in the past 72 hours have not offered enough evidence to evaluate that likelihood.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 7, 2022

Russian forces are concentrating in the eastern, northwestern, and western outskirts of Kyiv for an assault on the capital in the coming 24-96 hours. The Russians are bringing up supplies and reinforcements as well as conducting artillery, air, and missile attacks to weaken defenses and...

www.understandingwar.org

 

[brad465]

Biden set to announce a ban on Russian oil imports later today:

Subscribe to the Financial Times

A subscription to the Financial Times provides you with the insights and perspective you need to succeed, now.

on.ft.com

US president Joe Biden is set to announce a ban on imports of Russian oil into the country, according to a White House official...

 

[adc82140]

How much Russian oil does the US actually import?

Edit: Not much. About 1% of the total they use.

 

[brad465]

How much Russian oil does the US actually import?

Edit: Not much. About 1% of the total they use.

On its own not a lot, but it may put peer pressure on those more reliant to follow suit.

 

[tommy2215]

Satire is dead (again):

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1500886096837849099

The Ukrainian ambassador to the UN brought this tweet up at the UN and had a pretty funny message!

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1500962329269211138

 

[birchesgreen]

On its own not a lot, but it may put peer pressure on those more reliant to follow suit.

Would it? Its a lot lot LOT easier to give up 1% than say 40%.

 

[Shrop]

Biden set to announce a ban on Russian oil imports later today

People in the USA don't know how fortunate they are with their low fuel prices. Biden and other Americans seem to think it's great to ban Russian oil imports, even though only 3% (or thereabouts) comes from Russia. Gosh, how meaningful. They have NEVER paid as much as £1.00 per litre of petrol, and they have a tendency to think the world is ending when their fuel prices rise. So please forgive me if I think that this particular sanction isn't exactly risking hardship for US citizens!

 

[Chingy]

Statement of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland in connection with the statement by the US Secretary of State on providing airplanes to Ukraine - Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of Poland - Gov.pl website

www.gov.pl

Poland are handing over all of their MIG-29 jets to the USA (who are presumably going to get them to Ukraine). Interesting way to do it, presumably to direct the inevitable threats and retaliation from Putin towards the US rather than themselves?

The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.

At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.

The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.

 

[brad465]

An FSB whistleblower has revealed many were kept in the dark about the invasion, and believes it will be "a total failure":

This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says

Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described

www.thetimes.co.uk

Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described the war as a “total failure” that could be compared only to the collapse of Nazi Germany.

A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine.

The report said the FSB was being blamed for the failure of the invasion but had been given no warning of it and was unprepared to deal with the effects of crippling sanctions.

Continued

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

That's a similar ratio to the number of Protestants on the island of Ireland, a divided country which operates as two states.

Ukraine's Ulster.

Ukraine isn't the same as Northern Ireland but taking that into consideration I don't see how you cannot argue it is heavily divided. It does not properly function as a single entity and has had problems along these lines for 20 years or more. You only need to see how easily the Russians took Crimea to understand the difficulties Ukraine have in projecting their influence in what is supposedly their own country.

From time to time in life it is necessary to take a reality check. Eventually this conflict will lead to some sort of negotiation since it is clear that Russia has no realistic chance to both conquer and then control the whole of Ukraine. Before that negotiation gets underway, regardless of what happens elsewhere in their country, the Ukrainians' reality check will force them to accept that the Donbass and Crimea are now under permanent Russian control. That fight is simply no longer worth continuing however regrettable that may be. Once that conclusion is accepted it becomes much easier to talk of a Ukrainian state aligning with Ukrainian identity.

As to your rough comparison with the Irish situation one of the keys to the uneasy peace brought about by the GFA was the Republic of Ireland giving up its claim over Northern Ireland in return for participation in all sorts of cross-border bodies. So Ireland can concentrate on the needs of people south of the border and the northern Loyalists can live with much less paranoia about Republicanism.

Long-term peace has to involve a degree of compromise according to the reality on the ground. Ultimately Putin claims he wants to re-unify the Russian peoples while Ukrainians, en mass, reject the idea that they are in fact one of those peoples. Ceasing the conflict over who should control Donbass and Crimea will be an important part of re-establishing peace in the region.