Russia invades Ukraine

[class ep-09]

I am also reading the airliners.net threads on this. Aviation wise it looks the the Russian government have a plan to steal (they say nationalise) all the leased planes that the lessors want to get back. Interesting move, effectively cutting off their entire aviation sector with the west for the next decade.

First time any of these planes leaves russia , it will be seized .
Also , they will quickly run out of spare parts plus - many russian airlines services their planes outside of russia - so if a plane is due to have service but it won’t due to closed skies , it can’t fly even in russia .

 

[Gostav]

First time any of these planes leaves russia , it will be seized .
Also , they will quickly run out of spare parts plus - many russian airlines services their planes outside of russia - so if a plane is due to have service but it won’t due to closed skies , it can’t fly even in russia .

Iran managed to keep its Boeing aircraft flying for decades after US sanctions and Russia has far more aviation resources than Iran. It would be make difficult but not impossible.
Also, Siemens suspends operations in Russia but think that who have good parts supply and even a complete copy of Siemens train?

From Finanical Times：https://www.ft.com/content/b9f3bc37-396c-4097-8d00-61f096bf8b7e
Munich-based Siemens, which builds trains, services factories and supplies software to large manufacturers, confirmed it had “put all new business in and international deliveries to Russia on hold” while it evaluated the effects of sanctions imposed by the EU, US and others.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Putin has already won this war hands down

He hasn't. The Russian forces are struggling, and this is only in the Russian-speaking areas. They haven't even started trying to take the very nationalist Western Ukraine, and with every hour that passes, the cities in the West become more and more fortified. Russia is even struggling to encircle Kharkiv, let alone Kyiv.

The progress in the south (Kherson, Mariupol, etc) is and was expected by military planners, as it's just too difficult to defend effectively. It's a different story in the West and North, and as long as the land border with Poland is intact, weapons will keep flowing in. The war may well end up being a case of Kyiv/Kharkiv/Dnipro/Odesa being under siege, while Russians end up getting massacred in guerrilla attacks from government-controlled Western Ukraine.

IMO, the time has come to start seizing the assets of the oligarchs. If their wealth and assets start to evaporate overnight, they're going to give serious consideration to removing Putin from public life.

 

[najaB]

Iran managed to keep its Boeing aircraft flying for decades after US sanctions and Russia has far more aviation resources than Iran. It would be make difficult but not impossible.

One difference is that the aircraft in question were/are a lot simpler. FADEC and FBW weren't a thing.

 

[LOL The Irony]

Also, Siemens suspends operations in Russia but think that who have good parts supply and even a complete copy of Siemens train?

That's not entirely true. Sapsan 2 is/was to be a Siemens train built in Russia by Sinara. But further discussion on this should be in its own thread.

 

[brad465]

Several reports that Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant is both on fire and being shelled.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Several reports that Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant is both on fire and being shelled.

Oh bloody nora.

I really hope the thing doesn't explode, that will have the power to cause quite a bit of damage.

 

[GusB]

In the name o' the wee man. This is lunacy.

More than 500 international students trapped in Ukrainian town – as it happened

Hundreds of students are stranded in Sumy in the north-east after days of shelling

www.theguardian.com

Fire breaks out at Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant​

A fire has broken out in Europe’s largest nuclear power plant located in Zaporizhzhya, according to an announcement from plant employees and the mayor of the nearby town of Enerhodar.
“As a result of continuous enemy shelling of buildings and units of the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is on fire,” Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov said on his Telegram channel, citing what he called a threat to world security. He did not give details, Reuters reports.
Orlov recorded a short video message which has now been shared my multiple local Ukrainian media outlets, urging Russian troops to immediately stop shelling the plant.
The official earlier said Ukrainian forces were battling Russian troops on the city’s outskirts and reported that a Russian military column was heading toward the nuclear plant. Loud shots and rocket fire were heard late Thursday.
According to a Telegram message posted by an employee at the plant, Russian troops fired at the nuclear facility.

Attention! Equipment of the Russian Federation is firing at the Zaporozhye NPP.
There is a real threat of nuclear danger at the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. We demand a ceasefire from heavy equipment at the Zaporozhye NPP!

As of 2.30am local time, the employee added that firefighters have been unable to reach the scene of the fire, claiming the outbreak was a result of shots by Russian troops.
Ukrainian news agencies UNIAN and Hromadske also report that a fire has started at the nuclear power plant.
It remains unclear exactly where the fire is located within the plant or the damage inflicted so far.
The city on the Dnieper River accounts for one-quarter of the country’s power generation.

and

Ukraine’s foreign minister is now confirming reports of a fire at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, warning an explosion would be “10 times larger than Chernobyl”.

In a tweet issued just after 2.30am local time, Dmytro Kuleba said:

Russian army is firing from all sides upon Zaporizhzhia NPP, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. Fire has already broke out. If it blows up, it will be 10 times larger than Chornobyl! Russians must IMMEDIATELY cease the fire, allow firefighters, establish a security zone!”

 

[brad465]

If there was a large radiation release because of this, the wind forecast for the next 10 days is currently ranges from a N/NE wind to days of virtually no wind. A northerly wind would impact the Balkans and Turkey, a no wind of course would impact Ukraine itself (but this would also hinder Russian troops for as long as they occupied). It certainly won't concern states like Russia and Belarus for the time being.

 

[GusB]

It looks like this recent development backs up the theory that Putin doesn't want to occupy Ukraine. It would seem he doesn't want anyone else to occupy it either: "If I can't have it, nobody else can".

 

[brad465]

It looks like this recent development backs up the theory that Putin doesn't want to occupy Ukraine. It would seem he doesn't want anyone else to occupy it either: "If I can't have it, nobody else can".

Maybe this is also what he meant with his nuclear threats; not his nuclear weapon stockpile, but "Chernobyl 2".

 

[Scotrail314209]

I wonder if the fire has been significantly damped down by now. I was watching the stream earlier and it really didn't look large at all, I've gone back to watching and you can only see some smoke if you look hard enough

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

UPDATE:

More than 500 international students trapped in Ukrainian town – as it happened

Hundreds of students are stranded in Sumy in the north-east after days of shelling

www.theguardian.com

The Ukrainian State Emergency Service is reporting that radiation and fire safety conditions at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant are “within normal limits”.

An update on the agency’s official Telegram account reads:

As of 02:26 in the city of Energodar at the Zaporozhye NPP, the third power unit was disconnected from the unified energy system (only Unit 4 is operating). Of the six power units, one is currently operating.
Radiation and fire safety conditions at nuclear power plants are within normal limits.
Fire condition at the NPP is normal.”

The agency said a fire broke out in the training building outside the NPP, however the Guardian has been unable to verify these claims.

Looks like it seems to have been a minor fire.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I wonder if the fire has been significantly damped down by now. I was watching the stream earlier and it really didn't look large at all, I've gone back to watching and you can only see some smoke if you look hard enough

Latest from Sky news suggests the fire is affecting a training building outside the perimeter of the power plant itself. Perhaps better to wait for more definitive information before we get into nuclear panic mode.

 

[XAM2175]

It's something of a joke thinking that anything the west is doing is hurting Putin at present, so after this present test of his, invasion of other former Russian countries may follow with similar impunity in a few years' time. And then what. Poland, Slovakia, even East Germany? After all, NATO and/or the UN can't resolve to take any action in case Russia exercises its veto at the meeting where it's discussed.

1) There is a vast difference when it comes to Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Germany, and most other such countries you care to name - they're all NATO members and thus protected by NATO's mutual defence obligation (Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty), whereas Ukraine isn't.

2) The Russian veto you're thinking of relates to the UN Security Council, not NATO.

 

[Bantamzen]

Something dubious there. If she's 77 she was born in 1945, the Siege of Leningrad was lifted in January 1944...

An elderly woman gets arrested for protesting against war in Ukraine, RUK argues about her age....

 

[GusB]

An elderly woman gets arrested for protesting against war in Ukraine, RailUK Forums argues about her age....

From the pictures I saw she looked a hell of a lot older than 77, but isn't it right to question such claims? Good journalism is surely about making sure that your facts are correct before publication.

 

[Busaholic]

An elderly woman gets arrested for protesting against war in Ukraine, RailUK Forums argues about her age....

It's what makes RailUK Forums what it now is. I think everyone who posts on here should consider why so many 'guests' choose to be viewing what its members say on such a subject on a transport-related site. You might or might not come to the same conclusion that I've come to on at least a proportion of those 'guests'. A clue, it involves no conspiracy theories.

 

[Bantamzen]

From the pictures I saw she looked a hell of a lot older than 77, but isn't it right to question such claims? Good journalism is surely about making sure that your facts are correct before publication.

I think it is safe to say that modern journalists are nothing more than hacks. But this isn't the point, this same video appeared on the BBC's live feed on the war yesterday so the age of this lady is not the important point.

It's what makes RailUK Forums what it now is. I think everyone who posts on here should consider why so many 'guests' choose to be viewing what its members say on such a subject on a transport-related site. You might or might not come to the same conclusion that I've come to on at least a proportion of those 'guests'. A clue, it involves no conspiracy theories.

Seriously, I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

[DelayRepay]

Latest from Sky news suggests the fire is affecting a training building outside the perimeter of the power plant itself. Perhaps better to wait for more definitive information before we get into nuclear panic mode.

It's now reported that the Ukrainian emergency services have been able to access the site and put the fires out.

The BBC posted this update from Downing Street at about 3am:

Britain's prime minister Boris Johnson says the "reckless actions of President Putin could now directly threaten the safety of all of Europe", according to a readout from a call between Johnson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The call took place shortly after news broke about a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in southeast Ukraine.
A Downing Street spokeswoman called the situation "gravely concerning", adding: "Both leaders agreed that Russia must immediately cease its attack on the power station and allow unfettered access for emergency services to the plant."
Johnson also said that the UK would "do everything it could to ensure the situation did not deteriorate further".
He is seeking an emergency UN Security Council meeting in the coming hours, and that the UK would raise the issue immediately with Russia and close partners.
"Both leaders agreed a ceasefire was crucial," said the Downing Street spokeswoman.

I guess we have to do something, but I'm not sure what use the UN Security Council meeting will be, given that Russia can simply veto anything and everything.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's now reported that the Ukrainian emergency services have been able to access the site and put the fires out.

The BBC posted this update from Downing Street at about 3am:



I guess we have to do something, but I'm not sure what use the UN Security Council meeting will be, given that Russia can simply veto anything and everything.

This could have been a massive disaster had any of the reactors been damaged. Thankfully none were, but can we really continue to sit back when the Russian military are taking such reckless moves. I fully understand the consequences of any NATO / UN action here, but this cannot surely be allowed to pass without something being done? Quite what I'm honestly not sure, but Russia has overstepped the red line for sure.

 

[dgl]

I think we have no passed the point of no return, no sane leader would attack nuclear power stations, esp. one that knows what happens when one does have "issues", he needs taking out and quickly. Putin clearly wan't to show that he is the "big man" by any means possible and needs to be shown that he is very much the "little man".
Putin might not have launched nuclear missiles at Ukraine but they nearly created a massive nuclear disaster in a country that already has history on that front, so the whole of the world knows what would happen if the NPP was destroyed/lost cooling.

Go in hard and fast, destroy the Russian convoy and get out, plus if the attack could be orchestrated by a country outside of NATO then they can't blame it on NATO.

 

[Scotrail314209]

Part of me does think something needs to be done now. Last night could’ve been particularly nasty.

But do we really think leaders will step up and do something more substantial? I don’t think they will.

 

[yorksrob]

I wonder if Putin's fellow travelers around the world will turn a blind eye to his new tactic of bombarding nuclear power stations.

If I had a long border with Russia like Xi Xing Ping, I would certainly be alarmed by this development.

 

[DelayRepay]

This could have been a massive disaster had any of the reactors been damaged. Thankfully none were, but can we really continue to sit back when the Russian military are taking such reckless moves. I fully understand the consequences of any NATO / UN action here, but this cannot surely be allowed to pass without something being done? Quite what I'm honestly not sure, but Russia has overstepped the red line for sure.

I think we have no passed the point of no return, no sane leader would attack nuclear power stations, esp. one that knows what happens when one does have "issues", he needs taking out and quickly.

I agree. Throughout this, I have supported the UK and other countries decision not to engage directly with Russian forces, but I fear a red line has been crossed now. Unfortunately, the next step may cross one of Putin's red lines. I am glad I am not the one who has to decide what to do next, but I agree that we cannot just sit by and watch.

Anyone who thought Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons wasn't serious may need to re-think their position in light of last night's attack.

I wonder if Putin's fellow travelers around the world will turn a blind eye to his new tactic of bombarding nuclear power stations.

If I had a long border with Russia like Xi Xing Ping, I would certainly be alarmed by this development.

Indeed. Whilst China and Russia are friendly states, it's pretty clear that China isn't impressed by this war. I wonder if they could be the solution here in persuading Putin to stop, or persuading others in Russia that Putin's time is over.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

Meanwhile the BBC are reporting that

The Estonian owners of a cargo ship say it has sunk off the coast of Ukraine after an explosion.

They say two crew members ended up in a life-raft at sea and four others were initially missing - all six were later picked up by a local Ukrainian rescue service.

The Panama-flagged ship is owned by Estonia-based company Vista Shipping Agency. Baltic state Estonia is a member of Nato and has a border with Russia.

The vessel had been anchored off the Ukrainian coast after leaving the southern port of Chornomorsk near Odesa a number of days ago. It is not clear what caused the blast.

Ukraine's military says that Russia is sending amphibious landing vessels to capture Odesa, a city of a million people and a major seaport, as it continues its advance across southern Ukraine.

The article is clear that the cause of the explosion is currently unknown. But, if it turns out the cause was a Russian attack, would the Estonians be entitled to consider this an act of war?

 

[adc82140]

The fire is out, it was at a training facility away from the reactors. All fighting in the area has stopped. I think someone at some level has twigged that this wasn't a good idea. Unfortunately I think Zelensky's statements overnight have not done him any favours.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Mar 2022 ==

Go in hard and fast, destroy the Russian convoy and get out, plus if the attack could be orchestrated by a country outside of NATO then they can't blame it on NATO.

That's a interesting thought. What would happen if, say, the Israeli or Saudi Air force went in?

 

[Bantamzen]

I agree. Throughout this, I have supported the UK and other countries decision not to engage directly with Russian forces, but I fear a red line has been crossed now. Unfortunately, the next step may cross one of Putin's red lines. I am glad I am not the one who has to decide what to do next, but I agree that we cannot just sit by and watch.

Anyone who thought Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons wasn't serious may need to re-think their position in light of last night's attack.

Indeed, Putin is proving to be as dangerous as many of us feared.

Indeed. Whilst China and Russia are friendly states, it's pretty clear that China isn't impressed by this war. I wonder if they could be the solution here in persuading Putin to stop, or persuading others in Russia that Putin's time is over.

China will as much as possible stay our of the diplomatic scene, so I don't expect them to get directly involved.

Meanwhile the BBC are reporting that



The article is clear that the cause of the explosion is currently unknown. But, if it turns out the cause was a Russian attack, would the Estonians be entitled to consider this an act of war?

Its a fair bet that Russian forces might be behind it.

And elsewhere the hashtag #Kill Putin is trending on Twitter, and the Daily Mail headline this morning is "Who'll rid the world of this ranting madman?". The pressure is building on world leaders to do something more, the UN really need to get involved before Putin goes full rogue.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I will say I’m not surprised that Russia chose to attack a nuclear power station. Perhaps maybe their intent wasn’t to cause the reactors to blow up, but instead to cut out a ton of power which would make overtaking cities easier for them.

I definitely think a red line has been crossed but I doubt our leaders will step up.

 

[dgl]

Perhaps maybe their intent wasn’t to cause the reactors to blow up, but instead to cut out a ton of power which would make overtaking cities easier for them.

Issue is that if you stop a nuclear reactor form accessing the grid then you potentially lose the power it needs for it's essential services, and you don't want a reactor that can't cool itself! That's what happened at Fukushimia, no grid power and no backup power and no cooling.

 

[tommy2215]

Scary news to wake up to. It might be an attempt to scare Zelensky and NATO into accepting all of Putin's demands.

 

[adc82140]

The article is clear that the cause of the explosion is currently unknown. But, if it turns out the cause was a Russian attack, would the Estonians be entitled to consider this an act of war?

Unlikely, as the vessel was registered in Panama, so that's where legal responsibility lies. Also the crew are unlikely to have been Estonian, so no interest from Estonia in that respect either.