Russia invades Ukraine

[birchesgreen]

A shame, first airline i ever flew on was Aeroflot, later i travelled across the CCCP on a sleeper train (if we're playing "Have you ever been to Russia?" top trumps).

 

[brad465]

Traditionally famine is next...

Very good, 10/10!

Back when Covid emerged, and covid wasn't confirmed in the UK, a number of UK Nationals repatriated from Wuhan were driven to quarantine in 4 Horseman coaches.

Russia invades Ukraine and advances on Kyiv – as it happened

US secretary of state says Russia plans widespread human rights abuses; Ukrainian spokesman condemns ‘totally pointless attack’

www.theguardian.com

Sanctions added in. The one I wasn't expecting was banning Aeroflot into flying into the UK. Surely rather than it just being Aeroflot, it should be any other Russian airline?

One I wasn't expecting, but glad is in there, is Belarus being included in key sanctions.

 

[DarloRich]

This is making me feel sick. What the heck is next? First a 2 year pandemic and now a war. Could we seriously be at threat?

I appreciate this, because I’ve made myself rather sick with worry. I think it was Putin’s threats of consequences never seen before that really harrowed me. I do hope he means cyber. While cyber hacking is awful, it’s so so so much better than loss of civilian life.

Step back form the OMG moment & look at it logically - what does Putin have to gain via war with the West? What does he have to lose? The furthest he can go is cause trouble and try and create division in the western response to his invasion. The way NATO is formed (search NATO article 5) means he cant risk an attack on any NATO member. After that look again at the risks and what is at stake. Would a rational person take that risk?

Do I think the 3rd Guards Shock Army is going to burst through the Fulda gap and drive on Paris - no
Do I think Putin is going to launch an all out pre-emptive nuclear strike on the UK - No
Do I think Russia would attack NATO - No, it is to risky for everyone.

Do I think Putin will authorise cyber attacks designed to damage UK/Western infrastructure - Yes ( and soon)
Do I think Putin will retaliate against sanctions with economic "warfare" of his own - Yes

Ukraine isn't a NATO member and so isn't covered by the protection NATO brings. That's why they are keen to join.

EDIT - it is easy to say don't worry but we all do. I just try to focus on the logic, break it down into steps and work it out from there. There will also be a lot of disinformation floating around, especially on social media. Try to rely on sensible news outlets ( yes the evil BBC!) and look for validation/corroboration of any story before reacting to it.

 

[Trackman]

I appreciate this, because I’ve made myself rather sick with worry. I think it was Putin’s threats of consequences never seen before that really harrowed me. I do hope he means cyber. While cyber hacking is awful, it’s so so so much better than loss of civilian life.

Putin was on about a force sending in troops/tanks/aircraft in etc..
You have to remember the no.1 priority for or any large nation is to protect itself, war with NATO is the very last thing Putin will want- on both sides too.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Step back form the OMG moment & look at it logically - what does Putin have to gain via war with the West? What does he have to lose? The furthest he can go is cause trouble and try and create division in the western response to his invasion. The way NATO is formed (search NATO article 5) means he cant risk an attack on any NATO member. After that look again at the risks and what is at stake. Would a rational person take that risk?

Do I think the 3rd Guards Shock Army is going to burst through the Fulda gap and drive on Paris - no
Do I think Putin is going to launch an all out pre-emptive nuclear strike on the UK - No
Do I think Russia would attack NATO - No, it is to risky for everyone.

Do I think Putin will authorise cyber attacks designed to damage UK/Western infrastructure - Yes ( and soon)
Do I think Putin will retaliate against sanctions with economic "warfare" of his own - Yes

Ukraine isn't a NATO member and so isn't covered by the protection NATO brings. That's why they are keen to join.

EDIT - it is easy to say don't worry but we all do. I just try to focus on the logic, break it down into steps and work it out from there. There will also be a lot of disinformation floating around, especially on social media. Try to rely on sensible news outlets ( yes the evil BBC!) and look for validation/corroboration of any story before reacting to it.

Thank you for the reality check. It helped.

 

[Doppelganger]

The West has missed the opportunity to defend Ukraine; one would hope that they are going to rationally build up defensive support to prevent any further Russian expansion further to the West. If I was Polish, given the long history of invasions by Russia, I would not be cheerfully considering a direct border with them right now.

Poland already has a border with Russia - the Kaliningrad exclave

 

[birchesgreen]

Putin was on about a force sending in troops/tanks/aircraft in etc..
You have to remember the no.1 priority for or any large nation is to protect itself, war with NATO is the very last thing Putin will want- on both sides too.

Yes we need to remember that Putin is not omnipotent. Even if he did seek WW3 there are plenty of powerful Russians who don't and will quietly remove him.

 

[DanNCL]

Russia invades Ukraine and advances on Kyiv – as it happened

US secretary of state says Russia plans widespread human rights abuses; Ukrainian spokesman condemns ‘totally pointless attack’

www.theguardian.com

Sanctions added in. The one I wasn't expecting was banning Aeroflot into flying into the UK. Surely rather than it just being Aeroflot, it should be any other Russian airline?

Aeroflot were the only Russian airline that flew to the UK.

No doubt British Airways will get a similar ban from Russia in the coming days.

 

[Doppelganger]

By this logic I would argue that World War 3 has been going on for the past 20 years or so given the constant barrage of proxy wars in the middle east.

One of the very reasons that Putin has been getting so worked up about Ukraine is because he didn't want a border with NATO (assuming Ukraine was going to join). So it would make sense that he doesn't intend to occupy it but rather just put up a Soviet-style puppet government or something of the sorts. But it's anyone's guess I suppose.

One can hope that the sanctions etc that follow will further destabilise Putin's position, and I hope that this is less of a beginning and more of the final battle cry from a dictator on the way out. Certain signs leave room for this sort of optimism but of course the situation is very dire right now. Let us hope that the west can successfully form a united front against this aggression (save for the one member on this forum who appears to be a walking talking copy of Pravda!)

There is already a border with NATO and Russia:

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all share a border with Russia

 

[Ediswan]

I wonder if any UK credit cards will stop working due to being reliant on a sanctioned Russian bank. Something similar happened in 1991 when BCCI was forced to close. A colleague found their card was not working and discovered it had been issued by BCCI.

 

[GB]

Russian forces have taken Chernobyl.

 

[adrock1976]

The below from the film director Michael Moore that I have copied and pasted. I will try to find the original weblink in due course.

Ah, Chernobyl. One of Ukraine's finest hours when it was part of the Soviet Union. Nice to see Russia helping again. Of course Russia should be upset if we made Ukraine part of NATO. Like how we'd react if the Soviet Union had made Mexico or Canada a member of the Warsaw Pact. Or if Russia had tried to put nuclear missiles in Cuba. We wouldn't stand for that!
Stop all war. No US troops anywhere. Putin -- get some mental help. Your people made the greatest sacrifice in WW II - 27 million dead. We couldn't have defeated Hitler without you. We in this country have never sufficiently acknowledged your suffering and your loss. And then thank God for the brilliant Gorbachev who ended the Cold War and the threat of nuclear annihilation between us. I prefer today to think of all the good Russia has done for the world.
So let's stop. This is the 21st century for chrissakes. What you're doing looks so old and weird. You are no longer in the KGB. Take off your shirt, go sit in the sauna, then go ride your horse. Ukraine is not joining NATO. The people of the US are sick of war and we will restrain our government. The Czar is dead. He's not coming back. What would Marx say about your love of money and state-sponsored capitalism and oligarchs?
The life expectancy of the average Russian male is between 62 and 68 years old. Focus on that.

 

[seagull]

Interesting to me that the same media who told us a few years ago before Brexit that we were an insignificant, toothless, powerless speck of a nation and had to stay with the EU, are now pushing hard for us to "lead the Western world and show the way" into sanctions and more practical action against Russia.

 

[AlterEgo]

The below from the film director Michael Moore that I have copied and pasted. I will try to find the original weblink in due course.

Surprisingly sane from Moore, there is not a huge amount to disagree with there.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Feb 2022 ==

Interesting to me that the same media who told us a few years ago before Brexit that we were an insignificant, toothless, powerless speck of a nation and had to stay with the EU, are now pushing hard for us to "lead the Western world and show the way" into sanctions and more practical action against Russia.

Schrodinger's Brexit. Britain is simultaneously an impotent, limp nation with no soft or hard power yet must be at the head table for everything and everything it does matters deeply on the world scale.

 

[brad465]

Chris Bryant is demanding Roman Abramovich have his UK assets seized, based on the contents of a 2019 Home Office report:

Roman Abramovich: Labour MP urges government to seize Russian billionaire's assets

Chris Bryant accuses the government of not acting on concerns about the Chelsea Football club owner.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government should seize the assets of Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich, a Labour MP has said, citing concerns about alleged links to corruption.
Chris Bryant told MPs he had a leaked Home Office document which suggested the Chelsea Football Club owner should not be able to base himself in the UK.
Mr Bryant said it was written in 2019 and "little" had been done since then.
A spokesperson for Mr Abramovich declined to comment.
Replying to Mr Bryant, senior minister Mark Spencer said the government had taken "very strong action against high-profile Russian individuals who are of concern".

Downing Street would not be drawn on the claims about Mr Abramovich made in the Commons. The PM's spokesman said: "I couldn't comment on individuals in that way or on leaked documents of that type."
Earlier this week the government announced it would impose sanctions on three billionaires with close links to President Vladimir Putin as part of the UK's response to Russia's actions in Ukraine.
Mr Abramovich is one of Russia's richest people and is believed to be close to President Putin.
Speaking in the House of Commons, Mr Bryant urged the government to take action against Mr Abramovich, including removing his ownership of Chelsea Football Club and seizing his assets.
Quoting from the leaked Home Office document, he said: "'As part of HMG's [Her Majesty's Government] Russia strategy aimed at targeting illicit finance and malign activity, Abramovich remains of interest to HMG due to his links to the Russian state and his public association with corrupt activity and practices. An example of this is Abramovich admitting in court proceedings that he paid for political influence. Therefore HMG is focused on ensuring individuals linked to illicit finance and malign activity are unable to base themselves in the UK and will use the relevant tools at its disposal, including immigration powers to prevent this'."
Mr Bryant noted that the document had been produced three years ago and said: "Surely Mr Abramovich should no longer be able to own a football club in this country?
"Surely we should be looking at seizing some of his assets including his £152m home?"

 

[adc82140]

Thank you for the reality check. It helped.

Another couple of things to consider...

1. Kim Jong Un is a paranoid raving lunatic with nuclear weapons which could reach the US. But he has never tried to use them. Putin is a figure of calm and predictability compared to Kim.

2. Putin wants to redraw the borders to a pre 1917 Greater Russia. The Baltic states do not feature in that. He already has Belarus as a puppet, he wants Ukraine, and possibly Georgia. Neither of which are in NATO.

 

[Drogba11CFC]

Does anyone else think that Putin is waging a psychological war against us aided and abbetted by scaremongering media?

 

[adrock1976]

Chris Bryant is demanding Roman Abramovich have his UK assets seized, based on the contents of a 2019 Home Office report:

Roman Abramovich: Labour MP urges government to seize Russian billionaire's assets

Chris Bryant accuses the government of not acting on concerns about the Chelsea Football club owner.

www.bbc.co.uk

If I remember right, Chelsea had a transfer embargo imposed on them a few years ago.

Perhaps another transfer embargo could be used as a tool to get at both Abramovich and Putin?

 

[adc82140]

Does anyone else think that Putin is waging a psychological war against us aided and abbetted by scaremongering media?

If you'd have asked me this yesterday I'd have agreed. But it turns out, unlike with Covid, the media were right this time.

 

[brad465]

A reminder that Putin doesn't represent everyone in Russia:

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496900368344797184

Pushkin Square, maybe less than 1000 meters from Red Square and the Kremlin, is the cite of a significant protest. These people know the risks of challenging the regime. They’re on the street in-spite of major personal costs.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Surely though, if attacking NATO were to be a suicidal act, then NATO wouldn't fear going into Ukraine now?

I assumed the reason NATO isn't going into Ukraine, is for the very real consequences globally, after all, Russia has a considerable Nuclear armoury.

I'm pretty sure that Even Putin would baulk at using a nuclear armoury against any NATO countries, knowing the fate that would befall Russia if he did. I would say the reason NATO isn't going into Ukraine is (a) the Ukrainian Government hasn't (yet) asked us to, but more importantly (b) for too long too many Western politicians and Governments have been running scared of 'Stop the War' and similar campaigners, along with too many people taking the attitude of, anything that isn't inside our country isn't our problem, and we've pretty much lost the will to defend democracy and ourselves I hope if any good comes out of this awful situation, it'll be that people in the West start realise that if you want to live in a safer World, you do actually have to be willing to fight sometimes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Feb 2022 ==

Frankly I think all 5 permanent members should loose their veto power. It's a stupid system and more often than not there is always opposing opinions in the 5 so anything important gets veto'd.

Totally agree. The whole decision-making design of the UN needs complete reform. But that's for another discussion.

 

[coppercapped]

There is already a border with NATO and Russia:

Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all share a border with Russia

In fact there was also a border between a NATO country and Russia in the days of the Cold War. It's still there — between Norway and Russia.

 

[Doppelganger]

In fact there was also a border between a NATO country and Russia in the days of the Cold War. It's still there — between Norway and Russia.

Yes indeed and they've been in it from the start!

 

[GB]

I'm pretty sure that Even Putin would baulk at using a nuclear armoury against any NATO countries, knowing the fate that would befall Russia if he did. I would say the reason NATO isn't going into Ukraine is (a) the Ukrainian Government hasn't (yet) asked us to, but more importantly (b) for too long too many Western politicians and Governments have been running scared of 'Stop the War' and similar campaigners, along with too many people taking the attitude of, anything that isn't inside our country isn't our problem, and we've pretty much lost the will to defend democracy and ourselves I hope if any good comes out of this awful situation, it'll be that people in the West start realise that if you want to live in a safer World, you do actually have to be willing to fight sometimes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Feb 2022 ==



Totally agree. The whole decision-making design of the UN needs complete reform. But that's for another discussion.

I maybe wrong but I thought NATO wasn't getting directly involved because NATO is a defensive treaty and can only act if a NATO country was attacked? Nothing to do with not our war not our problem.

 

[Bevan Price]

Nobody is threatening "our country" or "our people".

Putin sounds like the classic fantasist psychopath, trying to project his own wrongs onto other people. He is the one doing the threatening. He is the one threatening millions of innocent Ukrainians.

Also, he is the one threatening his own people too, by dragging them into a war which many, I suspect, do not want.

Yes, Putin is dangerous, possibly paranoid, and will do almost anything to ensure he and his cronies remain in power. I hope Russians who vote for him are proud to have a leader who brings their fine country into disrepute. But only they can act to get rid of Tsar Putin; there is little effective action the rest of the world can do without risking nuclear destruction for most of the World.

Edited addition.
As others predict, I fear that a puppet regime could be installed in Ukraine within a few weeks. However, Ukrainians will start a guerrilla war against the new regime and the Russian colonial army of occupation, and that could last for many years, killing thousands on both sides.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Yes, Putin is dangerous, possibly paranoid, and will do almost anything to ensure he and his cronies remain in power. I hope Russians who vote for him are proud to have a leader who brings their fine country into disrepute. But only they can act to get rid of Tsar Putin; there is little effective action the rest of the world can do without risking nuclear destruction for most of the World.

Bit it is not a free vote. It doesn't meet any of the standards of a democratic society.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I feel much more calmer compared to this morning. As I had just woken when I saw the news, my mind was immediately going all over the place and thinking of the worst.

Having read the live updates, it really is going as the US etc expected.

It's more the fact, it's so surreal I can't wrap my head around it fully, even though we were warned its still something I'm struggling to process.

 

[dgl]

I wonder if the only solution is to take out Putin, to be honest it seems like he's not all there and if we (the west) did intervene and were sucessful would he give up or just see his people as expendable and to try and win at any cost. Even moreso if you could get a Russian to do it which I don't think would be too hard, you could probably get someone close to him to do it as they probabaly don't want to be in this mess.
He seems to be doing a Boris and possibly doing something just to take the heat off him.
At the moment is seems like violence is the only thing Putin will listen too so violence, it seems, he must experience.

Also cyber warfare seems like another good option, I bet we are better placed to kill their systems than they are ours as we have more advanced technology, plus if we could cut his comms systems then that would go someway to hindering his army.

 

[brad465]

Yes, Putin is dangerous, possibly paranoid, and will do almost anything to ensure he and his cronies remain in power. I hope Russians who vote for him are proud to have a leader who brings their fine country into disrepute. But only they can act to get rid of Tsar Putin; there is little effective action the rest of the world can do without risking nuclear destruction for most of the World.

Many of those Russians who voted for him would have been brainwashed and/or coerced into doing so, through no fault of their own. It's also possible that those "votes" were rigged/doctored, and that the number of voters who support Putin is in reality a minority of the Russian electorate.

I wonder if the only solution is to take out Putin, to be honest it seems like he's not all there and if we (the west) did intervene and were sucessful would he give up or just see his people as expendable and to try and win at any cost. Even moreso if you could get a Russian to do it which I don't think would be too hard, you could probably get someone close to him to do it as they probabaly don't want to be in this mess.
He seems to be doing a Boris and possibly doing something just to take the heat off him.
At the moment is seems like violence is the only thing Putin will listen too so violence, it seems, he must experience.

Also cyber warfare seems like another good option, I bet we are better placed to kill their systems than they are ours as we have more advanced technology, plus if we could cut his comms systems then that would go someway to hindering his army.

Putin will have some of the best security a world leader could possibly have. Any drone/plane/tank/soldier/spy who gets anywhere near him will be taken out very swiftly. Apparently he's even kept his own health matters very secret, leading to suspicions one of the reason's he's acting like this now is he believes he doesn't physically have long left to cement a legacy he wants.

 

[Roast Veg]

With regards Putin, and to borrow a doctor who comment, "don't you think he looks tired?"