I just can't quite shake off the feeling that braking was left late.
It was a foul night by all accounts, smack bang in the middle of the leaf-fall season, a line with an infrequent service, falling gradient, and a short train. To me there's quite a lot of potential alarm bells there, and I must say I was *very* surprised to read that the driver didn't at least test the water with a light brake application as soon as the double yellow on SY29R was sighted.
Yes the adhesion was particularly bad and the railhead hadn't been treated, but equally hazard anticipation is a part of driving any vehicle, and I can't help but find it a little surprising that the sequence of actions outlined by the RAIB simply doesn't seem to indicate any anticipation. One can only surmise, especially taking into consideration the driver's clearly very extensive experience, is that this location wasn't a location known for issues, but given the characteristics I can't help but find that surprising in itself.
As a driver, I am generally cautious about commenting on another driver's technique, even where the route and traction are familiar to me. Therefore I would feel unqualified to comment on another person's driving style where the route and/or traction is unfamiliar, and especially uncomfortable about trying to unpick the decision-making process that this particular driver went through on that specific day in those prevailing conditions.
It does strike me that it's easy to work through the chronology of this incident backwards and arrive at the conclusion that the driver should have applied the brake earlier. The problem with this approach is that it implies a degree of foresight that could only be described as superhuman. Had the driver known that he was going to lose control of the train I'm certain that he would have done as you expected, but the point is that he didn't know.
But if we are to say that the driver should have braked sooner, the question is how much sooner? My own feeling is that the braking technique used was probably about right. A little under a mile is plenty of space to stop a unit from 86mph using a Step 2 application, even on a modest falling gradient under indifferent railhead conditions. But given the exceptionally poor railhead conditions, how much extra room should the driver have allowed? The driver followed the correct technique and received assistance from the unit's WSP and (presumably) sanders, and yet still lost control of the train. Is it not possible that, no matter where the driver had applied the brake, control would still have been lost and a collision occurred? Bear in mind that the train travelled for more than a mile from the point where the brake was initially applied to where the two trains collided but it's speed was only reduced by 30-34mph.
As for carrying out a running brake test (RBT), I am unsure how much difference this would have made. RBTs are useful for getting a feel for a train's braking performance and can give an idea about rail conditions, but they can only do so at the time and place where you carry one out. The nature of railhead conditions being what they are, the results of a RBT do not necessarily tell you anything about what might happen further on when you have to brake for a station or signal. Poor rail conditions can be
extremely localised, to the extent that all can be fine, then you get 20 feet of Torvill and Dean, and then it's back to being hunky-dory again. Perhaps a RBT would have been helpful in this situation, or maybe it would have been misleading or done at the wrong time to have made any difference and the collision still happened.
I understand what you say about hazard perception but, as with road users, it's hard to know precisely what the hazard is until you're neck deep in whatever situation you find yourself in. I would like to hope that I am sufficiently cautious in my driving whatever the conditions, but it is very hard to foresee the truly exceptional and to be prepared for it. The consequence of such preparedness would be greatly increased journey times as drivers creep around at greatly reduced speeds and braking incredibly early. I think it would be better to allow drivers to exercise their own judgement based on their experience and training as we do now, learn the lessons from this incident and then take things forward from there.
I would go back and remind folk that, in the immediate aftermath of the collision, SWR publicly went on record to praise their driver's exemplary conduct. Notwithstanding what the RAIB's final report might say on the matter, I do not think that SWR would have been so quick to have said as much had there been anything on the OTMR download or in the driver's debrief to suggest that he'd done anything other than precisely what his employer would have expected him to do. It may be that the advice we get for driving in low adhesion changes as a result of this incident, but as things stand at present it would appear that the driver followed the correct procedures as they are now.
Consequent to all of this, I do not think that now is the right time to question what the driver did or did not do, especially when we have neither the full facts, the expertise and knowledge, nor the findings from the official investigation.