Northern Service Reductions from 4th Jan 2022

[Moonshot]

A further fly in the ointment is Industrial action, this is now looming at Northern as ballot papers are out to drivers. The worst case scenario would be significant service issues at weekends which may well drag on judging by the mood.

 

[Greybeard33]

The stations north of Blackburn get around half a million passengers a year (combined), so that's around seven hundred departing passengers a day - significantly more than a lot of branch lines get (yes, there's the line to Hellifield, but it's essentially a branch line) - it'd seem an unusual one to cut completely - but I don't know how well balanced the passengers are (e.g. would you be able to serve the majority of those passengers with just a couple of trains a day or if they all have roughly fifty/sixty/seventy passengers but nothing with over a hundred)?

I suppose the other question is whether the staff available would be better focussed on maintaining a half hourly Manchester - Blackburn service or an hourly Manchester - Blackburn - Clitheroe service? (again, not saying that I know the answer, just that there's a limited number of staff/resources, so how do we foes them best?)

It is important to consider the cost savings from the service cut as well as the (lack of) patronage. Curtailing the Clitheroe service to Blackburn would reduce the Rochdale - Clitheroe circuit by a full hour, so one less unit and crew diagram would be needed - a substantial saving to Northern. The branch would remain open for freight, but Network Rail would be able to reduce signaller hours in the Horrocksford Junction box and also economise on maintenance.

On the other hand, if, for example, the Preston - Colne service were cut back to terminate at Burnley, NR would be able to mothball the rest of the Colne branch, but there would be no saving in signalling costs (the branch is effectively just a long siding) and Northern would only save a bit of fuel - the same number of diagrams would be needed, just with a longer layover.

It can be seen that the Clitheroe service might be the more attractive of the two to bustitute, even if patronage is higher than on the Colne branch.

 

[JonathanH]

Last week some trains were FULL and standing. People must get it out of their heads that trains are empty.

Isn't the problem that SOME trains were full and standing, and perhaps not the ones on which the highest fares are paid? That is a very different emphasis but the same words.

The problem is that revenue speaks louder and has more tangible meaning to those making decisions than passenger counts.

 

[Killingworth]

Northern trains between Sheffield and Manchester can be full and standing on a Saturday morning but empty on a wet Monday night.

The first is partially because the other two operators (when they run) charge 3 or 4 times the price for a single through ticket (which may not be checked due to the crush). In the second case numbers are lower than they might be because there's an irregular hourly service that skips some stations, leaving gaps of almost 3 hours. That deters users in the other direction as well. By making one leg of the journey impractical it loses two ticket sales, not just that one.

 

[Peterthegreat]

It is important to consider the cost savings from the service cut as well as the (lack of) patronage. Curtailing the Clitheroe service to Blackburn would reduce the Rochdale - Clitheroe circuit by a full hour, so one less unit and crew diagram would be needed - a substantial saving to Northern. The branch would remain open for freight, but Network Rail would be able to reduce signaller hours in the Horrocksford Junction box and also economise on maintenance.

On the other hand, if, for example, the Preston - Colne service were cut back to terminate at Burnley, NR would be able to mothball the rest of the Colne branch, but there would be no saving in signalling costs (the branch is effectively just a long siding) and Northern would only save a bit of fuel - the same number of diagrams would be needed, just with a longer layover.

It can be seen that the Clitheroe service might be the more attractive of the two to bustitute, even if patronage is higher than on the Colne branch.

Using this logic it would be sensible to remove services to Blackpool South, Morecambe, Preston-Ormskirk, all routes north of Skipton, Hope Valley stoppers etc. All of which have fewer passengers per unit than the Clitheroe branch.

 

[Greybeard33]

Using this logic it would be sensible to remove services to Blackpool South, Morecambe, Preston-Ormskirk, all routes north of Skipton, Hope Valley stoppers etc. All of which have fewer passengers per unit than the Clitheroe branch.

I presume you are basing that statement on pre-pandemic footfall statistics? Those are not necessarily representative of 2022 usage. Northern will have up to date revenue data.

Also the cost and practicality of replacement buses will vary between lines. The Clitheroe line has a parallel main road that goes close to all the intermediate stations.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

A further fly in the ointment is Industrial action, this is now looming at Northern as ballot papers are out to drivers. The worst case scenario would be significant service issues at weekends which may well drag on judging by the mood.

This is becoming a serious issue for the industry and quite frankly needs to be urgently addressed but won't be all the while there is a lack of clarity about where the industry is headed. Its clear that T&Cs need to modernised to a 7 day working arrangement and the unions need to be bought along as to the serious threat the industry is facing and see that all parts of the industry are taking the pain so they collaborate. However, we are in the worst of worlds now with HMT losing patience with how much subsidy the industry needs and no big industry leader to explain the way to solve this is not to keep cutting but by I having a viable service that will attract people but the unions have to engaged to support the changes. The TOCs are largely not bothered just doing enough to claim the management fee and bonus with no incentive to do anything different. NR is just hiding behind CP6 settlement and ploughing on spending money as though its still running 2019 levels of traffic. Negative thoughts aside i don't see a Beeching Mk2 coming more just a railway that won't fulfil its potential we know it has.

 

[Mat17]

I can't speak for the railways, but I can speak for buses and it echoes many of the arguments put forward above. I commuted on buses for years. Since 2002 or so my local buses went from being a regular 15 minute service, down to an hourly service, which combines all former services into one route. The upshot being that it took longer, was less frequent and then started to become less reliable as buses would knock.

Overall result, I bought a car and now drive. I don't use the bus anymore and I won't be going back. Bad enough being at work without having to fight to get there as well.

 

[yorksrob]

It is important to consider the cost savings from the service cut as well as the (lack of) patronage. Curtailing the Clitheroe service to Blackburn would reduce the Rochdale - Clitheroe circuit by a full hour, so one less unit and crew diagram would be needed - a substantial saving to Northern. The branch would remain open for freight, but Network Rail would be able to reduce signaller hours in the Horrocksford Junction box and also economise on maintenance.

On the other hand, if, for example, the Preston - Colne service were cut back to terminate at Burnley, NR would be able to mothball the rest of the Colne branch, but there would be no saving in signalling costs (the branch is effectively just a long siding) and Northern would only save a bit of fuel - the same number of diagrams would be needed, just with a longer layover.

It can be seen that the Clitheroe service might be the more attractive of the two to bustitute, even if patronage is higher than on the Colne branch.

Patronage seemed reasonable high on the Colne branch when I used it recently. It's quite a heavily populated area.

We seem so be in danger of repeating the mistakes of the 1960's.

 

[Geeves]

It is important to consider the cost savings from the service cut as well as the (lack of) patronage. Curtailing the Clitheroe service to Blackburn would reduce the Rochdale - Clitheroe circuit by a full hour, so one less unit and crew diagram would be needed - a substantial saving to Northern. The branch would remain open for freight, but Network Rail would be able to reduce signaller hours in the Horrocksford Junction box and also economise on maintenance.

On the other hand, if, for example, the Preston - Colne service were cut back to terminate at Burnley, NR would be able to mothball the rest of the Colne branch, but there would be no saving in signalling costs (the branch is effectively just a long siding) and Northern would only save a bit of fuel - the same number of diagrams would be needed, just with a longer layover.

It can be seen that the Clitheroe service might be the more attractive of the two to bustitute, even if patronage is higher than on the Colne branch.

I am not sure the savings would be as great as you imagine, train crew would still be employed but now they would be sat spare at Victoria or on the unit at Blackburn for an hour or so

I agree with the above that cutting like this is great for the accountants its awful for passengers. If they want to double the number of passengers run a half hourly service that is actually reliable. People do not want to swap the train for a bus. Eventually the bus will also cease and you'll be left with nothing.

 

[Ant158]

By cutting the Clitheroe to Blackburn most travellers in the Ribble Valley who are travelling through to Manchester would most likely not bother with a bus to Blackburn then a connection to a train. I would think that most would desert public transport all together and would just drive instead.

 

[muddythefish]

Blimey, reading some of this stuff why not close most railway lines and just give up? As it happens, I've travelled on the Blackburn - Clitheroe lines in the late evenings a few times recently and have been pleasantly surprised at the number of passengers. For a small station more than expected commuters use Ramsgreave & Wilpshire

 

[Llandudno]

Blimey, reading some of this stuff why not close most railway lines and just give up? As it happens, I've travelled on the Blackburn - Clitheroe lines in the late evenings a few times recently and have been pleasantly surprised at the number of passengers. For a small station more than expected commuters use Ramsgreave & Wilpshire

Hear hear!

 

[Greybeard33]

I am not sure the savings would be as great as you imagine, train crew would still be employed but now they would be sat spare at Victoria or on the unit at Blackburn for an hour or so

I agree with the above that cutting like this is great for the accountants its awful for passengers. If they want to double the number of passengers run a half hourly service that is actually reliable. People do not want to swap the train for a bus. Eventually the bus will also cease and you'll be left with nothing.

If Blackburn - Clitheroe were bustituted per the rumour upthread, the truncated Rochdale service would have a 15 minute turnaround time at Blackburn, versus the current 28 minutes at Clitheroe. A driver and conductor would be freed up all day for redeployment elsewhere on the Northern network, which might enable a reduction in overtime or avoidance of cancellations.

 

[muddythefish]

If Blackburn - Clitheroe were bustituted per the rumour upthread, the truncated Rochdale service would have a 15 minute turnaround time at Blackburn, versus the current 28 minutes at Clitheroe. A driver and conductor would be freed up all day for redeployment elsewhere on the Northern network, which might enable a reduction in overtime or avoidance of cancellations.

So the 30-year fight to restore passenger services on the Blackburn - Clitheroe line would be thrown away in order to save a driver and conductor. Is the railway and the country so hard up that it's come to this?

 

[Moonshot]

So the 30-year fight to restore passenger services on the Blackburn - Clitheroe line would be thrown away in order to save a driver and conductor. Is the railway and the country so hard up that it's come to this?

A BBC news item this morning did state that not all pre Covid services will return to the network. As always, take rumours with a pinch of salt, but the reality is some permanent cuts are highly likely.

 

[CAF397]

A further fly in the ointment is Industrial action, this is now looming at Northern as ballot papers are out to drivers. The worst case scenario would be significant service issues at weekends which may well drag on judging by the mood.

Looking at TPE, the issues Northern may have if ASLEF pull RDW (if they haven't already) the disruption would be throughout the week. I hope not, and I hope the TPE issues are resolved sooner rather than later.

 

[Bald Rick]

Looking at TPE, the issues Northern may have if ASLEF pull RDW (if they haven't already) the disruption would be throughout the week. I hope not, and I hope the TPE issues are resolved sooner rather than later.

AIUI Northern have been without RDW for weeks already.

 

[yorksrob]

A BBC news item this morning did state that not all pre Covid services will return to the network. As always, take rumours with a pinch of salt, but the reality is some permanent cuts are highly likely.

Yes and as has been said, the permanent cuts should be of peak commuter services that are no longer required due to changes in work patterns, not of community rail services just because the treasury want to save a few quid.

 

[northwichcat]

Yes and as has been said, the permanent cuts should be of peak commuter services that are no longer required due to changes in work patterns, not of community rail services just because the treasury want to save a few quid.

I can speak for other routes but the Mid-Cheshire line is still missing peak time extras. The reduced level service causes great inconvenience for the many workers and scholars who need to be in Altrincham for a 9am start and have to arrive at 7:50am. The lines in to Manchester aren't just used by passengers commuting to and from Manchester, even if that's what Northern seemed to have planned for.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I can speak for other routes but the Mid-Cheshire line is still missing peak time extras. The reduced level service causes great inconvenience for the many workers and scholars who need to be in Altrincham for a 9am start and have to arrive at 7:50am. The lines in to Manchester aren't just used by passengers commuting to and from Manchester, even if that's what Northern seemed to have planned for.

You should count yourselves lucky you have trains. The Sheffield to Doncaster stopping service has been virtually eliminated with buses replacing most trains.

 

[northwichcat]

You should count yourselves lucky you have trains. The Sheffield to Doncaster stopping service has been virtually eliminated with buses replacing most trains.

I don't know the route but it looks like there's only two small towns with no trains with the others being served by a Sheffield to Leeds service. I would argue Swinton still has a better service than similarly sized towns on Northern network. Northwich is larger and it just has a train from Chester to Manchester calling there. If they introduced an hourly rail replacement bus from Northwich to Crewe it would be an improved service.

 

[Peterthegreat]

I don't know the route but it looks like there's only two small towns with no trains with the others being served by a Sheffield to Leeds service. I would argue Swinton still has a better service than similarly sized towns on Northern network. Northwich is larger and it just has a train from Chester to Manchester calling there. If they introduced an hourly rail replacement bus from Northwich to Crewe it would be an improved service.

Rotherham is MUCH larger than any town between Altrincham and Chester. Swinton had, pre Covid, twice as many passengers as Northwich.Some trains are still full and standing.

 

[northwichcat]

Rotherham is MUCH larger than any town between Altrincham and Chester. Swinton had, pre Covid, twice as many passengers as Northwich.Some trains are still full and standing.

Northwich has two stations on the same line. The one called Northwich is almost in the neighbouring village of Rudheath. Greenbank is also in Northwich and is closer to most of the schools but further from the town centre. Pre-COVID the two stations combined had over 400,000 journeys. That was from one train per hour in each direction and probably ignores a lot of ticketless travel as Greenbank is unstaffed and Northwich ticket office was only open in the morning before it collapsed.

According to Wiki Rotherham has a population of 100,000 but only got 500,000 journeys per annum pre-COVID. Is that right? That must make Rotherham residents some of the least likely to use the train, even when they have a full service.

Anyway this discussion is pointless. It's not like Northern are going to transfer Manchester drivers to Doncaster.

 

[yorksrob]

I can speak for other routes but the Mid-Cheshire line is still missing peak time extras. The reduced level service causes great inconvenience for the many workers and scholars who need to be in Altrincham for a 9am start and have to arrive at 7:50am. The lines in to Manchester aren't just used by passengers commuting to and from Manchester, even if that's what Northern seemed to have planned for.

True, but the mid-Cheshire has never had the sort of intensive commuter service in talking about.

 

[td97]

AIUI Northern have been without RDW for weeks already

Is this guards or drivers or both?

 

[mandub]

Is this guards or drivers or both?

Drivers RDW agreement was withdrawn by ASLEF approx 3-4 weeks ago.

Also working to fixed link hours only, not accepting the usual movement of start/finish times on a spare turn, and no agreeing to stay on after normal finish time or come in early to help.out etc

Informally most drivers also not making themselves available for working extra Sundays (west) beyond those in the links (unless you're a Man Vic driver LOL)

A vote for strike action is underway.

 

[Kite159]

Drivers RDW agreement was withdrawn by ASLEF approx 3-4 weeks ago.

Also working to fixed link hours only, not accepting the usual movement of start/finish times on a spare turn, and no agreeing to stay on after normal finish time or come in early to help.out etc

Informally most drivers also not making themselves available for working extra Sundays (west) beyond those in the links (unless you're a Man Vic driver LOL)

A vote for strike action is underway.

Talk about turkeys voting for Christmas.

Cut down service levels, either planned or unplanned [i.e. caused by cancellations] = passengers give up using the railways as an option, either driving to wherever they are going or using buses. Once they have made that switch it will be hard to win them back.

 

[Moonshot]

Talk about turkeys voting for Christmas.

Cut down service levels, either planned or unplanned [i.e. caused by cancellations] = passengers give up using the railways as an option, either driving to wherever they are going or using buses. Once they have made that switch it will be hard to win them back.

Some passengers have given up using the railway simply because of a change in there own circumstances.

 

[northwichcat]

Some passengers have given up using the railway simply because of a change in there own circumstances.

My remote team is due to have our next face-to-face office day in Manchester. It will mean people from Middlesbrough, Bradford, Lincoln, Hereford, Derby, London and many other places will be getting the train to Manchester. We may not all be travelling every day but when we do it can mean some people are travelling long distances and paying high fares.

The November and December ones were both in London. The railways should have got as much revenue from me for those two trips as they would have made from 2 monthly seasons between Knutsford and Altrincham.

I say should as a combination of a delay to the Avanti train and Northern running a reduced timetable led to a 1hr+ delay to my journey and a Delay Repay claim.