Trains going for scrap 2022.

[warwickshire]

Starting with the 365s, what trains (ie traction classes) will be next for the scrap yard in 2022?
Will Booths Rotherham or Kingsbury’s in Warwickshire get some contracts as well?

Could anything else go, unexpected classes etc?
Finally could some moves go by road instead of by rail?

 

[Towers]

455 & 456 I should think.

Lots of Class 43s, sadly.

Very probably the vast ranks of 319s which I presume must be sat rotting away somewhere?

And as a wildcard (sort of!), Southern's 313s?

 

[JonathanH]

The rest of the 317s and 321/322 fleets.

The 16 465/2s (465235-465250)

More than half the 153 fleet.

The 507/508s and the final 315s.

 

[warwickshire]

How about the mk3 coaches at ely?
Or will they cling on and on. In case any more can be sold on ?.

 

[backontrack]

455 & 456 I should think.

Lots of Class 43s, sadly.

Very probably the vast ranks of 319s which I presume must be sat rotting away somewhere?

And as a wildcard (sort of!), Southern's 313s?

Not entirely sure about all the 43s, aren't ScotRail a few short? But certainly some will go to scrap.

I wouldn't necessarily bank on the 153s going to scrap - there's still going to be a market for sprinter carriages. There's still plenty of 150s knocking around, after all.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Dec 2021 ==

The rest of the 321/322 fleets.

Pure fantasy, but it'd be nice if these could displace the 313s.

 

[JonathanH]

I wouldn't necessarily bank on the 153s going to scrap - there's still going to be a market for sprinter carriages. There's still plenty of 150s knocking around, after all.

150s don't sag though and have been rebuilt to be accessible.

That said, with 36 150/2s becoming spare from TfW towards the end of the year and into 2023, the worst 150s and 156s could well also go for scrap before too long.

 

[backontrack]

150s don't sag though and have been rebuilt to be accessible.

That said, with 36 150/2s becoming spare from TfW towards the end of the year and into 2023, the worst 150s and 156s could well also go for scrap before too long.

I'd imagine the 155s will go before the 156s. Rather easy to imagine the Turbostars pushing the former out.

 

[JonathanH]

I'd imagine the 155s will go before the 156s. Rather easy to imagine the Turbostars pushing the former out.

It is noticeable that Northern haven't taken all the EMR 156s on offer. Those 156s have no obvious future use.

 

[NoMorePacers]

I'd imagine the 155s will go before the 156s. Rather easy to imagine the Turbostars pushing the former out.

Which Turbostars would you foresee being able to replace the 155s (given I'm not aware of any more being freed up to go to Northern for this purpose)?

 

[Bevan Price]

With the DfT in charge, I could even see some Class 175s being at risk, although it might be more sensible to see if they could be used to replace some Class 156s in Scotland. The oldest Class 150s are now over 35 years old, so any found to be in poor condition may not get repaired. Common sense would see most Class 150s being retained to strengthen formations, but since when have "common sense" and "DfT / Treasury" been compatible?

 

[JonathanH]

they could be used to replace some Class 156s in Scotland

Electric traction will remove the first Scottish 156s when East Kilbride is electrified. Not sure that will be in 2022.

 

[Kite159]

Not entirely sure about all the 43s, aren't ScotRail a few short? But certainly some will go to scrap.

I wouldn't necessarily bank on the 153s going to scrap - there's still going to be a market for sprinter carriages. There's still plenty of 150s knocking around, after all.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Dec 2021 ==


Pure fantasy, but it'd be nice if these could displace the 313s.

How would the AC only 321/322s displace the DC 313s on Southern? Unless you start coming up with a random chain where the AC 321/322s end up working services which currently have dual-voltage units which can be sent to Brighton.

Only half sensible home for the refurbished 321s would be in Scotland, reduced to 3 coaches to allow some of the older 318/320s to go to the scrapyard

 

[JonathanH]

How would the AC only 321/322s displace the DC 313s on Southern?

I guess you would need to install shoegear and a new transformer but it would be utterly pointless with 465s currently off lease. The best thing for the Renatus 321s is to try and extract the traction package and fit it on something else but we have far too many brand new OHLE units on order already with surplus 720s for both Greater Anglia and c2c, let alone the homeless 350/2 fleet.

It is a bit of a shame that the surplus 720s (and the corresponding slack in the 701 / 730 fleets) aren't suitable as a replacement fleet for the 318s and 320s in Glasgow.

 

[Kite159]

I guess you would need to install shoegear and a new transformer but it would be utterly pointless with 465s currently off lease. The best thing for the Renatus 321s is to try and extract the traction package and fit it on something else but we have far too many brand new OHLE units on order already with surplus 720s for both Greater Anglia and c2c, let alone the homeless 350/2 fleet.

It is a bit of a shame that the surplus 720s (and the corresponding slack in the 701 / 730 fleets) aren't suitable as a replacement fleet for the 318s and 320s in Glasgow.

Although a 5 coach 720 is only a couple metres longer than a pair of 318/320 (maybe also a pair of 334s) so in theory could probably be used in Scotland as replacements, assuming there will be no issues with that extra couple metres at stations.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

I'd imagine, anything built or ordered by BR before 1994

 

[backontrack]

I'd imagine, anything built or ordered by BR before 1994

Except the Class 158s and 159s, of course.

 

[JonathanH]

I'd imagine, anything built or ordered by BR before 1994

150s, 156s, 158s, 159s, 165s, 166s, 318s, 320s, 323s and 465s (other than the 465/2s) should be fairly safe during 2022. The rest of the pre-1994 stock is clearly at risk, particularly if the DfT starts to take cost reduction seriously.

 

[D365]

Lots of Class 43s, sadly.

Why is this a sad thing?

I guess you would need to install shoegear and a new transformer but it would be utterly pointless with 465s currently off lease. The best thing for the Renatus 321s is to try and extract the traction package and fit it on something else but we have far too many brand new OHLE units on order already with surplus 720s for both Greater Anglia and c2c, let alone the homeless 350/2 fleet.

It is a bit of a shame that the surplus 720s (and the corresponding slack in the 701 / 730 fleets) aren't suitable as a replacement fleet for the 318s and 320s in Glasgow.

Class 321 DC conversion makes zero sense.

How come it has suddenly been determined that there are too many Aventra units on order?

 

[Towers]

Why is this a sad thing?

It's always sad when legendary stock meets the end of the line.

Have you no soul, man?!

 

[D365]

It's always sad when legendary stock meets the end of the line.

Have you no soul, man?!

The fact that - other than accident damage - 91s were getting scrapped before 43s, says a lot about the staying power of the latter!

 

[JonathanH]

The fact that - other than accident damage - 91s were getting scrapped before 43s, says a lot about the staying power of the latter!

Or the value of the components?

 

[DanNCL]

My predicition is that some of the following will end up in scrapyards in 2022:
43s
86s
91s
153s (non-PRM units)
313s
315s
317s
319s
321s
322s
365s
373s (the remaining unrefurbished units that were withdrawn before covid)
455s (only in small quanities however, with there being no sign of the 701s entering service anytime soon)
456s
458s (The 6 units converted from 460s)
465s (465/2s)
507s
508s
LU 1972 stock (the ex-Aldwych unit)
Metro Cammell Glasgow Subway units
All remaining slam door Mark 3s (apart from those on the Night Riviera and in preservation)

Some of these are more of a guess than others.

I guess you would need to install shoegear and a new transformer but it would be utterly pointless with 465s currently off lease. The best thing for the Renatus 321s is to try and extract the traction package and fit it on something else but we have far too many brand new OHLE units on order already with surplus 720s for both Greater Anglia and c2c, let alone the homeless 350/2 fleet.

It is a bit of a shame that the surplus 720s (and the corresponding slack in the 701 / 730 fleets) aren't suitable as a replacement fleet for the 318s and 320s in Glasgow.

Although a 5 coach 720 is only a couple metres longer than a pair of 318/320 (maybe also a pair of 334s) so in theory could probably be used in Scotland as replacements, assuming there will be no issues with that extra couple metres at stations.

There are not surplus 720s. Both GA and C2C will need the full fleets that they ordered.

It is noticeable that Northern haven't taken all the EMR 156s on offer. Those 156s have no obvious future use.

The 4 units Northern aren't taking from EMR are the 4 Angel owned ones. I wouldn't be surprised to see these 4 units end up as spare parts donors for Angel's other 156s at Heaton and Corkerhill, I doubt they'd be scrapped in 2022 though.

The fact that - other than accident damage - 91s were getting scrapped before 43s, says a lot about the staying power of the latter!

Or the value of the components?

I think it's much more likely reflective of that fact that Eversholt seem to be more realistic with their expectations of what stock will have a future use than Porterbrook and Angel. The 5 91s that were scrapped this year were all in poor condition, and of the many stored 91s at Doncaster Belmont those were the least likely to find any further work. Porterbrook (and in particular) Angel are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land if they seriously think there's any prospect of a future use for the vast majority of the 43s in varying states of decay in Ely and Long Marston. Many of the Ely powercars should really have been scrapped in 2020.

 

[JonathanH]

The 4 units Northern aren't taking from EMR are the 4 Angel owned ones. I wouldn't be surprised to see these 4 units end up as spare parts donors for Angel's other 156s at Heaton and Corkerhill, I doubt they'd be scrapped in 2022 though.

When the numbers were posted on here, it isn't just 156470/73/97/98 of the EMR 156s that aren't going to Northern. A few of the lower numbered ones aren't included either.

 

[D365]

There are not surplus 720s. Both GA and C2C will need the full fleets that they ordered.

I was wondering where this idea had come from.

I think it's much more likely reflective of that fact that Eversholt seem to be more realistic with their expectations of what stock will have a future use than Porterbrook and Angel. The 5 91s that were scrapped this year were all in poor condition, and of the many stored 91s at Doncaster Belmont those were the least likely to find any further work. Porterbrook (and in particular) Angel are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land if they seriously think there's any prospect of a future use for the vast majority of the 43s in varying states of decay in Ely and Long Marston. Many of the Ely powercars should really have been scrapped in 2020.

Either way, the owners of Papworth Sidings have a tidy income stream!

 

[61653 HTAFC]

If a lot of stuff is sold for scrap at once, presumably the value of the scrap metal will drop. It wouldn't be smart for the Roscos to flood the scrap market.

 

[Towers]

Porterbrook (and in particular) Angel are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land if they seriously think there's any prospect of a future use for the vast majority of the 43s in varying states of decay in Ely and Long Marston. Many of the Ely powercars should really have been scrapped in 2020.

It's an interesting point about stored 43s; somethat does come to mind is the supply of spare components. Given that currently there is still a reasonable fleet of 43s working nationally, I would hazard a guess that the potential of breaking them for spares might play a part in the long term retention of otherwise life expired power cars. How many spare cabs are there that have actually been removed from their respective locos and placed into store, for example? That has always been a major issue when one gets dinged - as indeed the Blue Pullman was only recently (although whether a replacement cab was required in that instance I've no idea). Ditto bogies, wheelsets and so on. Most of what has been scrapped recently is stuff that has little or no profitability in spare component supply, but that can't really be said for 43s. Could it just be that it's simply cheaper to store the things whole than it would have been to dismantle them and put all the bits away somewhere?

 

[bramling]

If a lot of stuff is sold for scrap at once, presumably the value of the scrap metal will drop. It wouldn't be smart for the Roscos to flood the scrap market.

Depends if getting a few extra £ on scrap value is worth more than both storage costs, or possibly more significant the risk of the lease market being driven downwards by having plenty of stock available.

When the glut of stock was first foreseen, now of course amplified by Covid, Roger Ford posed the question of how low leasing charges could get, particularly on BR-era fleets. It seems quite clear the leasing companies would rather scrap stuff than drop the leasing charges. Look at how readily the 365s went from service to scrap, with 15 years of life left in them.

The leasing system has to be one of the worst legacies of privatisation. Unfortunately it's also one of the most difficult things to sort.

 

[43096]

458s (The 6 units converted from 460s)

Unlikely, as Porerbrook have said they would hold on to the eight surplus units (529-536) for some time, should SWR need them. More likely is that the Pompey line conversion gets under way and the ex-460 cars from those units start to go in the bin.

There are not surplus 720s. Both GA and C2C will need the full fleets that they ordered.

Really? So despite the collapse in commuting into London, GA and c2c still need all their 720s. Sorry, I don't believe that.

The 4 units Northern aren't taking from EMR are the 4 Angel owned ones. I wouldn't be surprised to see these 4 units end up as spare parts donors for Angel's other 156s at Heaton and Corkerhill, I doubt they'd be scrapped in 2022 though.

156405/406/408/410/411 are also not spoken for.

I think it's much more likely reflective of that fact that Eversholt seem to be more realistic with their expectations of what stock will have a future use than Porterbrook and Angel. The 5 91s that were scrapped this year were all in poor condition, and of the many stored 91s at Doncaster Belmont those were the least likely to find any further work. Porterbrook (and in particular) Angel are frankly living in cloud cuckoo land if they seriously think there's any prospect of a future use for the vast majority of the 43s in varying states of decay in Ely and Long Marston. Many of the Ely powercars should really have been scrapped in 2020.

There's no actual reason why Angel or Porterbrook need to scrap stock as they both lease sites long-term for storage: Porterbrook in particular, as they have a 15 year lease on Long Marston, so there's no real additional cost for them storing vehicles. That said, they only have five power cars in storage there: everything else is either disposed of or has been leased to GWR for spares recovery.

 

[backontrack]

My prediction is that some of the following will end up in scrapyards in 2022:
...
458s (The 6 units converted from 460s)

Unlikely, as Porterbrook have said they would hold on to the eight surplus units (529-536) for some time, should SWR need them. More likely is that the Pompey line conversion gets under way and the ex-460 cars from those units start to go in the bin.

What a waste that whole Class 460 -> Class 458 conversion was...

 

[BayPaul]

If a lot of stuff is sold for scrap at once, presumably the value of the scrap metal will drop. It wouldn't be smart for the Roscos to flood the scrap market.

The few tonnes of scrap trains is a drop in the ocean compared to all the cars and other metal recycling. You could probably scrap every train on the network without having a noticeable impact on metal prices (though I suppose you might find the specialist scrap merchants that can process a train paying a bit less, but with the speed Sims gets through one, I can't imagine even this would be massive)