How are you going to deal with Climate Change?

[DanNCL]

Overegging it I think. I'm pretty certain my part of Lancashire will not burn anytime soon ( in geological terms ) as children are being taught and frightened. Climate change continues as it always has done but no doubt accelerated by the USA, Chinese and Indian use of coal and oil.

That’s the attitude that got us into this mess. Won’t happen in our lifetimes so don’t worry about it. It may not happen in our lifetimes, but if we don’t do something about it now it will happen within the lives of the children and grandchildren of those born today. The damage is being done now and it needs fixing now, if left until today’s children have grown up and running the country it’ll be too late.

Surely if its full of zero carbon enthusiasts they would be focusing their spending on where their money makes the biggest carbon reductions. I'd suggest that's nowhere in the rail industry at present and certainly not in the electrification of what's largely secondary and duplicated lines.

The road industry is the biggest emitter in the UK transport industry, but decarbonising and improving the rail network would shift a significant amount of the road traffic onto rails. Taking even just a quarter of the lorries of the motorways and putting that cargo onto electric hauled freight trains would make a significant reduction in carbon emissions, but it can’t happen without more rail electrification.

 

[43066]

That’s the attitude that got us into this mess. Won’t happen in our lifetimes so don’t worry about it. It may not happen in our lifetimes, but if we don’t do something about it now it will happen within the lives of the children and grandchildren of those born today. The damage is being done now and it needs fixing now, if left until today’s children have grown up and running the country it’ll be too late.

But righty or wrongly people aren’t going to take kindly to (or vote for politicians favouring) restrictions to peoples’ lives now to save unborn future generations. Then of course there’s the inconvenient fact the planet has gone through heating and cooling cycles for millennia, for reasons that are still only partially understood, so man made emissions cannot be the only cause of climate change.

 

[A0]

The road industry is the biggest emitter in the UK transport industry, but decarbonising and improving the rail network would shift a significant amount of the road traffic onto rails. Taking even just a quarter of the lorries of the motorways and putting that cargo onto electric hauled freight trains would make a significant reduction in carbon emissions, but it can’t happen without more rail electrification.

BIB - no it wouldn't.

Economics drives how products are shipped / distributed. And for many loads rail is either unviable or too expensive. And that won't change. And forcing such chamge would simply lead to inflation as the cost increases would simply be added to the ticket price of the items.

 

[John S2]

But righty or wrongly people aren’t going to take kindly to (or vote for politicians favouring) restrictions to peoples’ lives now to save unborn future generations. Then of course there’s the inconvenient fact the planet has gone through heating and cooling cycles for millennia, for reasons that are still only partially understood, so man made emissions cannot be the only cause of climate change.

I am aware that we have been asked not to discuss this subject, but this misleading post must not be allowed to go unanswered. Global temperatures can go up or down due to variations in (a) solar strength and (b) distance from the sun due to orbit. However solar strength has been declining for several decades and changes due to (b) are also going in the wrong direction to cause warming. Approximately 110% of the warming since 1950 is human caused - ie we would be cooling very slightly if it were not for our destructive actions.
This is directly relevant to the main subject of this thread. There are no excuses for slowing/pausing/cancelling electrification.

 

[paul1609]

Ultimately, if we put our resources where it made the most difference to carbon emissions - it would be eHighway.

You would then have a diesel railway trying to compete against electric coach services - good luck with that one in the court of public opinion

I'd suggest an early priority would be the power generation and distribution systems at least 60% of electric trains as we speak are being powered by high carbon generation. Additional electric consumption would only increase that percentage, 3 or 4 more Hinckley Point c s?

 

[43066]

I am aware that we have been asked not to discuss this subject, but this misleading post must not be allowed to go unanswered. Global temperatures can go up or down due to variations in (a) solar strength and (b) distance from the sun due to orbit. However solar strength has been declining for several decades and changes due to (b) are also going in the wrong direction to cause warming. Approximately 110% of the warming since 1950 is human caused - ie we would be cooling very slightly if it were not for our destructive actions.
This is directly relevant to the main subject of this thread. There are no excuses for slowing/pausing/cancelling electrification.

To be clear I’m not doubting manmade climate change - but I suppose there’s enough skepticism out there that the question isn’t actually as “settled” in many minds as the climate lobby would like. This is very relevant to politicians, and of direct relevance to this thread, where the “excuse” is simply the fact the politicians don’t want to spend the money, and presumably don’t feel it’s electorally worth it.

 

[Annetts key]

But righty or wrongly people aren’t going to take kindly to (or vote for politicians favouring) restrictions to peoples’ lives now to save unborn future generations. Then of course there’s the inconvenient fact the planet has gone through heating and cooling cycles for millennia, for reasons that are still only partially understood, so man made emissions cannot be the only cause of climate change.

The vast majority of scientists agree that emissions caused by humans is the primary cause of the temperature of the atmosphere increasing, and this is the cause of climate change.

The initial effects of climate change are thought to be the reason that there are more extreme weather events happening around the world. So it may well be affecting people now or soon.

I'd suggest an early priority would be the power generation and distribution systems at least 60% of electric trains as we speak are being powered by high carbon generation. Additional electric consumption would only increase that percentage, 3 or 4 more Hinckley Point c s?

Currently the mainland U.K. electricity network has 53.6% of electricity being generated from fossil fuels. And 48.2% of that is from combined cycle gas turbines, the most efficient and least dirty of the fossil fuels. Even taking this into account, it’s far cleaner and more efficient than a diesel or petrol internal combustion engine.

Up until January 2020, the average electricity usage per year was falling. Meanwhile we continue to add wind turbines to the generation network. Even if it is not always windy enough to keep the majority of wind turbines as active generators, when they do produce electricity, it still reduces the average amount of fossil fuels that are used, thus reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

 

[The Ham]

Currently the mainland U.K. electricity network has 53.6% of electricity being generated from fossil fuels. And 48.2% of that is from combined cycle gas turbines, the most efficient and least dirty of the fossil fuels. Even taking this into account, it’s far cleaner and more efficient than a diesel or petrol internal combustion engine

However even that is part of the story, given that over the whole of 2019 "low carbon" (i.e. everything other than Oil, Gas & Coal) electricity accounted for 54.2% of supply.

Whilst there will be peaks and troughs, these are likely to be short lived.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Dec 2021 ==

But righty or wrongly people aren’t going to take kindly to (or vote for politicians favouring) restrictions to peoples’ lives now to save unborn future generations. Then of course there’s the inconvenient fact the planet has gone through heating and cooling cycles for millennia, for reasons that are still only partially understood, so man made emissions cannot be the only cause of climate change.

Man made emissions are not the only source of carbon emissions, however almost whatever carbon we create (given we create so much) is the main reason for climate change.

As without our carbon heavy lifestyles the planet would likely be able to cope with the emissions produced by nature.

However even ignoring this, I would much rather do something to reduce my carbon emissions and find out that I was wrong (benefiting from less air pollution in the process) than assume that it's nothing to do with us and then find out to be wrong.

 

[reddragon]

Then of course there’s the inconvenient fact the planet has gone through heating and cooling cycles for millennia, for reasons that are still only partially understood, so man made emissions cannot be the only cause of climate change.

Those cycles were over millennium, not a few decades! Man made activities are the difference.

You happy to seethe UK going under water, toxic air and starvation in most peoples lifetime?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Dec 2021 ==

I'd suggest an early priority would be the power generation and distribution systems at least 60% of electric trains as we speak are being powered by high carbon generation. Additional electric consumption would only increase that percentage, 3 or 4 more Hinckley Point c s?

Network Rail have a contract for Nuclear power and the UK grid is averaging 50% renewables and increasing, so not sure where you get 60% from? Anyway, electric trains are cleaner even if powered by coal!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Dec 2021 ==

To be clear I’m not doubting manmade climate change - but I suppose there’s enough skepticism out there that the question isn’t actually as “settled” in many minds as the climate lobby would like. This is very relevant to politicians, and of direct relevance to this thread, where the “excuse” is simply the fact the politicians don’t want to spend the money, and presumably don’t feel it’s electorally worth it.

It is settled and researched to death by scientists. It's only the oil / coal lobby who aren't settled in their views!

 

[John S2]

To be clear I’m not doubting manmade climate change - but I suppose there’s enough skepticism out there that the question isn’t actually as “settled” in many minds as the climate lobby would like. This is very relevant to politicians, and of direct relevance to this thread, where the “excuse” is simply the fact the politicians don’t want to spend the money, and presumably don’t feel it’s electorally worth it.

Actually in some ways I think this is a rather good assessment of where we are at, unfortunately. The science regarding the cause of rising temperatures over the last 70 years is proven to the level of 'beyond reasonable doubt', but many politicians are operating in denial mode by simply avoiding mentioning the subject. Mr Sunak is a good case in point.

 

[reddragon]

Actually in some ways I think this is a rather good assessment of where we are at, unfortunately. The science regarding the cause of rising temperatures over the last 70 years is proven to the level of 'beyond reasonable doubt', but many politicians are operating in denial mode by simply avoiding mentioning the subject. Mr Sunak is a good case in point.

I've just jumped out of a plane in my underpants. Currently there is no evidence I will hit the ground at 120 mph.

 

[Annetts key]

I've just jumped out of a plane in my underpants. Currently there is no evidence I will hit the ground at 120 mph.

But have your underpants stayed on, or have they flown off without you

 

[paul1609]

"Quarter 2 2021, renewables' share of generation was 37.3 per cent; this is 7.2 percentage points down on Quarter 2 2020 and lower than the generation share of fossil fuels.30 Sept 2021"
"Renewable" includes biomass which is by and large Drax power station which Co fires coal and wood largely imported from North America utilising sea and rail transportation powered by oil. Its not by any stretch of the imagination low carbon. Drax is in the top five emitters of CO2 in England.

 

[najaB]

"Renewable" includes biomass which is by and large Drax power station which Co fires coal and wood largely imported from North America utilising sea and rail transportation powered by oil. Its not by any stretch of the imagination low carbon.

True. But it's certainly net lower carbon than if it was burning coal that had been imported using sea and rail transportation powered by oil.

 

[reddragon]

Its about a journey: -

Toxic inefficient petrol with lead - unleaded petrol - lower CO2 diesel - better efficiency & cleaner with catalytic converters - hybrids - EVs - zero carbon cars

Coal power - Gas - biomass - nuclear - wind / solar - battery back ups - zero carbon energy

Open coal fire - gas central heating - cavity / loft insulation - energy efficiency - low energy homes - biomass boilers - solar / heat pumps - zero energy housing

 

[Annetts key]

"Quarter 2 2021, renewables' share of generation was 37.3 per cent; this is 7.2 percentage points down on Quarter 2 2020 and lower than the generation share of fossil fuels.30 Sept 2021"

Do you really think one quarter of one year is representative? Especially with our ‘British’ weather?

For the past year (data from https://grid.iamkate.com)

Average demand 30.3GW
Fossil fuels 12.74GW 42.0%. Of which 12.14GW 40.0% was gas and 0.57GW 1.9% was coal.
Renewable 7.27GW 23.9%. Of which 5.68GW 18.7% was wind, 1.20GW 4% was solar photovoltaic and 0.38GW 1.3% was hydroelectric.
Other energy 7.51GW 24.8%. Of which 4.95GW 16.3% was Nuclear, 2.15GW 7.1% was biomass, 0.20GW 0.7% was pumped storage and 0.21GW 0.7% was other sources.

 

[reddragon]

The CO2 from a kw/hr of electric has dropped from 1100g in 1970 to 181g today and is heading to zero by 2030. That's what counts!

 

[The Ham]

The CO2 from a kw/hr of electric has dropped from 1100g in 1970 to 181g today and is heading to zero by 2030. That's what counts!

Not only that but we're using less electricity than before, lowest level since 1990's and lowest per person than 1980's.

 

[reddragon]

Not only that but we're using less electricity than before, lowest level since 1990's and lowest per person than 1980's.

Most of the reduction of electricity consumption comes from outsourcing manufacturing to China, so actually we have increased it in real terms!