Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) - Latest plans & speculation

[daodao]

In other words, the Treasury has gutted the scheme

Good on them, if true. Stupid profligate schemes backed by Bojo (remember Boris island airport at Foulness) deserve to be chopped.

While improvement and electrification of the existing ex-LNW Manchester-Leeds line (TRU) is justified, NPR as originally proposed, and the HS2 phase 2b extension north of Crewe, deserve to be scrapped, as they are not value for money.

 

[Purple Orange]

Whilst admittedly most contributors on this website view rail-related matters as sacrosanct, anyone with an adult financial mindset who can view the amount of monies that have been released by the Treasury since March 2020 in relation to Covid-19 related items, such as the NHS extra funding and vaccination programmes and the furlough scheme in particular. must see there has to be a price that has eventually to be paid and in my own personal view, the NHS should continue to be the leading recipiant of Treasury released funding for the foreseeable future.

One sees the Labour Party usual riposte of "We would have spent more" suddenly become subject to a reality check when the total monies the Treasury has released in the last year and a half have been made known. In football supporters chanting terminology..."They've all gone quiet over there".

That is an economically foolish approach. What you’re saying here is that the pandemic spend must be dealt with by this generation. Would you have advocated that the debt incurred during WW2 should have been burdened by the people who lived through it? The immediate post WW2 era saw the creation of the NHS and there was economic investment in transport infrastructure during the next 25-30 years (namely roads and airports). Your approach, had it been applied in 1945, would not have seen that happen and most likely an exceptionally long recession.

We need to treat the pandemic debt like a war debt, and invest in the economy so it can grow and service that debt. That is a more ‘adult financial mindset’.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Oct 2021 ==

Good on them, if true. Bojo's stupid profligate schemes (remember Boris island airport at Foulness) deserve to be chopped.

While improvement and electrification of the existing ex-LNW Manchester-Leeds line (TRU) is justified, NPR as originally proposed, and the HS2 phase 2b extension north of Crewe, deserve to be scrapped, as they are not value for money.

Scrapping phase 2b Crewe-manchester would be a highly foolish thing to do. Zero benefit for Manchester would be gained and Birmingham Curzon Street would just have a few London trains running in and out. It has been explained time and time again on this forum (and others) why Crewe-Manchester needs to happen. More to the point, as a resident of Greater Manchester, I don’t know why you don’t want to see capacity improved going in to the city. You would benefit from this.

 

[javelin]

Good on them, if true. Bojo's stupid profligate schemes (remember Boris island airport at Foulness) deserve to be chopped.

Neither NPR nor HS2 are Boris' ideas.

 

[matacaster]

If NPR morphs into upgraded TRU, will they need to 4-track stanedge and will Huddersfield's updated station have sufficient capacity?

 

[LittleAH]

If NPR morphs into upgraded TRU, will they need to 4-track stanedge and will Huddersfield's updated station have sufficient capacity?

Pure speculation, but it seems Kirklees were unhappy with lack of info on disruption. Fact is, until we know what the end state of TRU is - NR won't have a those answers.

 

[Bald Rick]

If NPR morphs into upgraded TRU, will they need to 4-track stanedge and will Huddersfield's updated station have sufficient capacity?

You’ll find out soon enough!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

That is an economically foolish approach. What you’re saying here is that the pandemic spend must be dealt with by this generation. Would you have advocated that the debt incurred during WW2 should have been burdened by the people who lived through it? The immediate post WW2 era saw the creation of the NHS and there was economic investment in transport infrastructure during the next 25-30 years (namely roads and airports). Your approach, had it been applied in 1945, would not have seen that happen and most likely an exceptionally long recession.

We need to treat the pandemic debt like a war debt, and invest in the economy so it can grow and service that debt. That is a more ‘adult financial mindset’.

It will not be this generation, but future generations who will be bearing the then-ever-increasing National Debt interest payments that fall due for payment.

 

[Purple Orange]

It will not be this generation, but future generations who will be bearing the then-ever-increasing National Debt interest payments that fall due for payment.

As it should be for an event like a pandemic.

We have only recently finished paying off WW2 debt and the debt used to finance the abolition of British involvement in slavery in the US.

 

[edwin_m]

If spending is cut back too far and too quickly, future generations have to bear the consequences of that too. That mistake was made in 2010 and the impact has been compounded by Brexit and Covid. The generation currently in childhood and young adulthood (I'm not one of them) deserves a break!

 

[class26]

It will not be this generation, but future generations who will be bearing the then-ever-increasing National Debt interest payments that fall due for payment.

Don`t forget that these costs get the inflation effect so in generations to come they are much less in real terms than today

 

[Bald Rick]

Don`t forget that these costs get the inflation effect so in generations to come they are much less in real terms than today

dont forget the interest rates on most government debt allow for that.

 

[ABB125]

dont forget the interest rates on most government debt allow for that.

Does the interest rate increase over time then?

 

[Bald Rick]

Does the interest rate increase over time then?

About a quarter of U.K. government debt is index linked, ie the interest is inflation plus a bit.

 

[edwin_m]

However, ignoring partial repayments, the relative value of the loan shrinks because it remains a fixed amount while everything else inflates.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

About a quarter of U.K. government debt is index linked, ie the interest is inflation plus a bit.

Can you clarify the "plus a bit" above in terms of what exactly that is in percentage terms.

 

[HSTEd]

About a quarter of U.K. government debt is index linked, ie the interest is inflation plus a bit.

Well over the life of the gilt it is often actually inflation minus a bit, thanks to the enormously inflated prices at which the gilts were sold.

Real yields on index linked gilts have been negative for most of recent history.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Oct 2021 ==

Can you clarify the "plus a bit" above in terms of what exactly that is in percentage terms.

The way it normally works is a gilt is given a nominal value, say £100.

At the end of the life of the gilt the holder will be given the inflation adjusted value of £100, so £150 or £200 or whatever.

In addition, every year they receive their "coupon", which will be an inflation adjusted sum with the real value of the coupon percentage on the gilt - say 0.125% - so they would receive 12.5 real pence every year for their £100 gilt.

However, this is complicated because the gilts are then sold at auction - so the price for which the gilt is sold is different from it's nominal value - and in practice with index gilts they are sold for much greater than their face value.

EDIT:

This ignores the even more complicated practice where the coupon and principal payments of a given gilt can actually be separated and sold on by a third party - allowing you to purchase only the right to receive the coupon or the principal if you wish.

 

[Bald Rick]

Can you clarify the "plus a bit" above in terms of what exactly that is in percentage terms.

It varies significantly. Most recent issues are at 1/8%, ie 0.125%. But there are some at 1 7/8%.

These are nominal yields, and as @HSTEd says the actual yield is usually less as U.K. gilts usually sell for higher than their principal value when auctioned at issue.

 

[plarailfan]

I wonder if they might eventually, be able to extend the Huddersfield - Westtown four tracking, on through a, re-modelled Dewsbury station (maybe an island platform just on the slow lines) then continuing two of the four lines, over a new viaduct alongside the existing one and widen the cutting that heads out towards Batley.
They could build another viaduct alongside the existing one at Batley and then, two of the four lines, could split off and go up the old "Great Northern" route, through Upper Batley, towards the station at Howden Clough, then go off to a huge, park and ride station near the cinema and then into Gildersome tunnel and along the viaduct line into Leeds station.
The cost might run north of a £ billion I suppose ? and work could start in about CP20 or something ? In the meantime, it would be fantastic if they could get the Leeds station, to to the retail park & ride project first, in order to get some fares money coming in.

 

[YorksLad12]

I wonder if they might eventually, be able to extend the Huddersfield - Westtown four tracking, on through a, re-modelled Dewsbury station (maybe an island platform just on the slow lines) then continuing two of the four lines, over a new viaduct alongside the existing one and widen the cutting that heads out towards Batley.
They could build another viaduct alongside the existing one at Batley and then, two of the four lines, could split off and go up the old "Great Northern" route, through Upper Batley, towards the station at Howden Clough, then go off to a huge, park and ride station near the cinema and then into Gildersome tunnel and along the viaduct line into Leeds station.
The cost might run north of a £ billion I suppose ? and work could start in about CP20 or something ? In the meantime, it would be fantastic if they could get the Leeds station, to to the retail park & ride project first, in order to get some fares money coming in.

That's way more complicated (and expensive, and invasive, and potentially slower) than 'simply' four-tracking from Ravensthorpe to Cottingley/White Rose, with new or widened tunnel at Morley.

 

[Halifaxlad]

I wonder if they might eventually, be able to extend the Huddersfield - Westtown four tracking, on through a, re-modelled Dewsbury station (maybe an island platform just on the slow lines) then continuing two of the four lines, over a new viaduct alongside the existing one and widen the cutting that heads out towards Batley.

I would have though at the very least the four tracking would extend to Dewsbury since its already so close.

Anyway here's an interesting video which is worth watching if your interested in the possible route of NPR.

 

[Purple Orange]

I would have though at the very least the four tracking would extend to Dewsbury since its already so close.

Anyway here's an interesting video which is worth watching if your interested in the possible route of NPR.

Unfortunately that video doesn’t play. What was the rough route of the line?

 

[class26]

Unfortunately that video doesn’t play. What was the rough route of the line?

It does play, just click on the "watch on YouTube" link. i watched it over lunch today !

 

[Purple Orange]

It does play, just click on the "watch on YouTube" link. i watched it over lunch today !

Thanks. I just clicked the play symbol.

 

[brad465]

This caught my eye: Boris Johnson planning to announce £100bn in investment for Northern Rail Networks this week ahead:

Boris Johnson's £100BILLION investment in Northern rail networks

Boris Johnson will this week unveil a £100 billion package of investment in Northern rail networks in an attempt to accelerate his flagship 'levelling up' agenda.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Boris Johnson will this week unveil a £100 billion package of investment in Northern rail networks in an attempt to accelerate his flagship ‘levelling up’ agenda.

The long-awaited Integrated Rail Plan is expected to be hailed as the most substantial Government investment in trains ever, bringing forward planned upgrades by a decade.

Sources said that the raft of new lines and improvements would cut journey times and increase services across the Midlands and the North, merging separate schemes such as HS2, Northern Powerhouse Rail and the Midlands Engine Rail into one single network.

The package, which has been costed at more than £96 billion, will cut journey times between the North and London and between the major conurbations – the time from Manchester to Leeds on the Transpennine Route is expected to be cut by 20 minutes.

The Bolton to Wigan route will also be electrified at a cost of £78 m, while routes lost to the Beeching cuts of the 1960s and 1970s, including the Don Valley line between Sheffield and Stockbridge in Yorkshire, and the Stockport to Ashton line in the North West, will be restored.

Investing in transport links is a key part of the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘level up’ the regional variations in prosperity, which helped to secure the Red Wall former Labour seats which proved critical to his 2019 General Election victory.

Mr Johnson has vowed to ‘reverse decades of underinvestment in the North’s transport network’, arguing that better transport links are one of the most effective catalysts of economic growth.

The announcement – which was delayed while Mr Johnson tried to squeeze more money out of Chancellor Rishi Sunak to fund it – could also help to defuse the anger among the Red Wall MPs over the Owen Paterson sleaze row.

As The Mail on Sunday revealed last week, Ministers are expected to scrap the eastern leg of the 250mph HS2 line between Leeds and Birmingham, with Leeds receiving its own tram network instead in consolation.

HS2 trains will instead be directed on to existing track for much of the journey into Yorkshire.

If he does announce this, it sounds extremely ambitious and would not be surprised if much of it doesn't happen, however much it's needed. I suspect though there's an element of "dead cat throwing" in this story to distract from the corruption rows circulating.

 

[takno]

This caught my eye: Boris Johnson planning to announce £100bn in investment for Northern Rail Networks this week ahead:

Boris Johnson's £100BILLION investment in Northern rail networks

Boris Johnson will this week unveil a £100 billion package of investment in Northern rail networks in an attempt to accelerate his flagship 'levelling up' agenda.

www.dailymail.co.uk

If he does announce this, it sounds extremely ambitious and would not be surprised if much of it doesn't happen, however much it's needed. I suspect though there's an element of "dead cat throwing" in this story to distract from the corruption rows circulating.

The important thing to note here is that the nearest thing to shovel-ready in the pile is HS2, and that's getting cut back. This isn't a 100bn scheme, it's a basically just an announcement that they will spend about 10m on looking dynamic before the next election, and then cancel, rinse and repeat.

 

[Starmill]

and the HS2 phase 2b extension north of Crewe, deserve to be scrapped, as they are not value for money.

You've come out with this claim regarding 2b Western many, many times, but it's always been unjustified. It seems very likely to proceed now too, so perhaps after Thursday you'll finally have an opportunity to accept being wrong about it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Nov 2021 ==

This caught my eye: Boris Johnson planning to announce £100bn in investment for Northern Rail Networks this week ahead:

Boris Johnson's £100BILLION investment in Northern rail networks

Boris Johnson will this week unveil a £100 billion package of investment in Northern rail networks in an attempt to accelerate his flagship 'levelling up' agenda.

www.dailymail.co.uk

If he does announce this, it sounds extremely ambitious and would not be surprised if much of it doesn't happen, however much it's needed. I suspect though there's an element of "dead cat throwing" in this story to distract from the corruption rows circulating.

That story has been appallingly badly written headline.

A more accurate headline on this one:

HS2 eastern to be scrapped while northern railways get £100bn

Transport secretary Grant Shapps is expected to face criticism over the rumoured decision to scrap HS2’s eastern leg that would connect Birmingham to Leeds.

Announcing the outcome of the Rail Integrated Plan on Thursday, Shapps is likely to confirm the decision, while setting forth an almost £100bn investment in the English railway network, the Sunday Times reported.

HS2's eastern to be scrapped while northern railways get £100bn

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps is expected to face criticism over the rumoured decision to scrap HS2's eastern leg.

www.cityam.com

As for the dead cat I think this is probably the opposite. It's a betrayal which will rightly lead to fierce criticism of the Prime Minister.

 

[brad465]

As for the dead cat I think this is probably the opposite. It's a betrayal which will rightly lead to fierce criticism of the Prime Minister.

Depends, I think there'll be plenty of criticism from politicians and businesses affected yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if many of the affected electorate see the "big fancy number" in £100bn and think things are good for them. On the dead cat point, I think it depends on how much of a backlash against Johnson there is, remembering that sometimes a dead cat can be a bad story in itself, as long as it's not as bad as what it's distracting us from.

 

[Starmill]

Depends, I think there'll be plenty of criticism from politicians and businesses affected yes, but I wouldn't be surprised if many of the affected electorate see the "big fancy number" in £100bn and think things are good for them. On the dead cat point, I think it depends on how much of a backlash against Johnson there is, remembering that sometimes a dead cat can be a bad story in itself, as long as it's not as bad as what it's distracting us from.

The criticism is certainly flowing already:

Boris Johnson to water down promise on Northern Powerhouse Rail line

Key Leeds-Manchester section will be delivered through upgrades rather than a new line via Bradford, i has learnt

inews.co.uk

A senior civil servant said: “This is a half-arsed attempt at building a high-speed rail network in the North.

“What sounds like a big pot of money is really a lot of smaller scaled back projects piled together into one big announcement to hide that they are in reality delivering fewer things over a longer period of time.

“It’ll be downgrading the North compared to the levelling up that other areas are getting from the benefits of HS2 and Crossrail over the decades to come.”

No doubt this ^ is the more accurate interpretation.

 

[dosxuk]

The Metro seem to think that all the high speed projects north of Birmingham will be cancelled.

 

[Frankton Junct]

The BBC newspaper review:

The i claims that ministers are to scrap promises for a new high-speed rail link between Leeds and Manchester, and focus on upgrading existing lines instead.
It has learned the Birmingham to Leeds extension of High Speed Two will also be abandoned in plans to be announced this week.
The paper says the move will be a "blow" for "levelling up" - which is likely to "enrage northern leaders".
The Daily Telegraph believes the government will also face a backlash from red wall Tory MPs.
A government source has told the Times there is a view that the benefits of the eastern leg of HS2 would take too long to transpire.
The Department for Transport told the i it did not comment on speculation.

BBC newspaper review