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...untill you tell them how much it will cost in money and reduction in life style.
Just look at the recent outrage caused by a few pounds a week increase in the household fuel budget. Some thing that we should be celebrating if we are concerned with climate change.
A real attack on climate change will cost a lot more than that with heat pumps at 10K and BEVs at 30K
I don’t think any car requiring leaded race fuel is going to achieve 65mpg! I take your point though and a couple of quid a litre for super unleaded is probably not unrealistic. My thirstiest car (which is currently in bits and won’t ever do high mileages) manages 16/17mpg according to it’s own trip computer so it will be expensive to run, but cars are an expensive hobby anyway so it’s just something I’ll have to live with.
I wasn't talking about race cars (as could be seen by the fact that few would do 1,000 miles a year let alone multiples of 4,000's) rather in a future where that's the same way you can get petrol for current new ICE cars and people holding out against having an electric car.
The other factor to consider is that currently the government could increase fuel duty, but don't as it'll upset too many. Once ICE's fall below 50% of vehicles (and even then that's going to well below 50% of miles traveled) the risk of upsetting your voters starts to diminish rapidly. Even at 50% of new vehicles (which would be a few years before 50% of vehicles) and the risk is much reduced.
If there wasn't a shortage of new cars then I'd expect that there would be a lot of people looking to go electric within the next 18 months. (I know of someone awaiting their next car who is having to wait months for it, of that had been weeks then there would have been a lot more being delivered).
Ok then, I don’t think there will ever be a widespread sentiment that says IC engined vehicles should be banned from public roads. People are going to adopt EVs, that’s a certainty. They aren’t however going to see a small number of IC engined vehicles remaining in (largely occasional) use as some kind of threat to the planet. I know I’ve raised this before but if we reach that stage then surely heritage railways, vintage aircraft etc. etc. will also be in the firing line. We’re into the realms of petty authoritarianism here.
With respect, what you’re advocating in your final paragraph is a ban on IC engined vehicles so why not say as much?
...untill you tell them how much it will cost in money and reduction in life style.
Just look at the recent outrage caused by a few pounds a week increase in the household fuel budget. Some thing that we should be celebrating if we are concerned with climate change.
A real attack on climate change will cost a lot more than that with heat pumps at 10K and BEVs at 30K
The problem with looking at new costs of cars is that is only one factor on the total cost.
If you're paying 7p/mile more for your travel and your doing 15,000 miles a year and that's an extra £1,000 a year in costs.
With fewer parts to go wrong, then even allowing for replacing damaged cells from time to time, then cars are likely to be able to do more miles at lower maintenance costs.
However that also has a knock on impact on second hand values as a £30,000 car which can do 400,000 miles over it's lifetime is likely to be worth more at any given time than one which does 200,000 miles.
There's lots of people who would be fairly happy with a EV which cost (say) £4,000 to buy (due to age) which maybe limited to 50 miles of range if it was about £500/year cheaper to run (£140, reduction in VED and doing about 5,200 miles a year with lower fuel costs, as it'll only need to average about 100 miles a week) with limited risk of needing to replace something fairly expensive, such as clutches, cam belts, etc.
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There's very few of them, probably measured in thousands, let alone tens of thousands and certainly not enough to make the difference between the current 500,000 classic/historical cars and the 1 million used in my example of where my local petrol stations would likely all have stopped selling petrol/diesel.
I have, four times now, witnessed a group of software and machine learning whizzes gather in a room (or Zoom) to brainstorm the reinvention of transport for eco-friendliness and human convenience. All four times, the brainstorm "invented" buses. To the letter.
All four times.This is why, when people ask "can AI save XYZ," I usually think to myself "If AI can save XYZ, listening to folks who didn't grow up rich can save XYZ for like a millionth of the cost of AI trying to save it"
By the way, all four times were personal experiences. I'm not counting the time when E**n M**k tried to reinvent transportation and invented the bus, or when Via tried to reinvent transportation and invented the bus, or when Uber tried to reinvent transportation and invented the (sic)
More broadly, it SOUNDS sexy and ingenious to find simple solutions for complex, pressing problems. But in practice, when that can be done, it's usually not sexy. It's usually something decidedly unsexy and pleibian like "Add buses." Do with that what you will.
I'm also not sure that the garages would do enough other trade to remain open. We've got a smallish supermarket, a reasonable sized one due to open next year, an Aldi/Lidl being proposed and 2 other convince stores (which are fairly close to the garages) as such it's unlikely that they would both do enough trade to remain open.
By providing EV charging points alongside their petrol pumps these garages will have captive customers who are waiting for their vehicle to charge or waiting for a free charger. They will spend that time shopping or, even more lucratively, drinking coffee.
People are keeping 30 (and 40!) year old Fiestas going now. Generally not as their primary mode of transport however, which is the bit some people seem unable to get their heads around…
By providing EV charging points alongside their petrol pumps these garages will have captive customers who are waiting for their vehicle to charge or waiting for a free charger. They will spend that time shopping or, even more lucratively, drinking coffee.
Of the 6 garages in the local area two have very limited buildings and little scope to expand, with one of those directly opposite a much larger site and within 200m of 2 other convince stores. As such they are both likely to close at some point once fuel stops being widely used.
Of the remaining 4 I agree that there's a good chance that they would be repurposed, especially as one is on a fairly busy road and already is a M&S and two have limited competition to provide convince shopping to their local areas (including the one very near the local secondary school).
However that quite different to them continuing to sell petrol/diesel beyond (say) 2050, when there's less than (say) 500 cars which would be needing to use it (500 is slightly higher than proportionally the number of cars, which is 370, for the population if there's 1 million ICE cars remaining) especially given that few of those cars would be doing much more than an average of 100 miles a week.
Another factor which hasn't been mentioned is that over time more energy is needed to extract the remaining oil (which is quite plentiful). In 1990 it was about 5% of the energy provided by fuel was needed to get it, by 2010 it was about 10% now it's about 15%.
Now whilst the rate of growth isn't likely to continue at those rates as less and less is used, it is something which if fuel use remains high could cause fuel prices to rise quite significantly.
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I suspect that even then some could be converted to be EV's (mostly on a film a current ICE car wouldn't be noticeability visually different to one which had been converted and the latter would probably solve some H&S issues).
Well, yes. But that wasn't really my point. People who want to hang on to a petrol or diesel powered car are more likely to be doing so because there's something special about the car.
I should point out that my first car was a Fiesta, and I've owned many. Great cars, arguably favoured by drivers, but still not likely to be kept in large numbers as, say, a McLaren or Ferrari.
I should point out that my first car was a Fiesta, and I've owned many. Great cars, arguably favoured by drivers, but still not likely to be kept in large numbers as, say, a McLaren or Ferrari.
Proportionally, in terms of number built, obviously not. It will be the ST models that survive in decent numbers, which will reflect what has happened with earlier Fiestas. XR2s, RS Turbos and RS1800s (remember those?!) accounted for a very small number of Fiesta sales back in the day, but are disproportionately well represented among the survivors. The MK7 and MK8 ST is a much (much!) more highly regarded hot hatch now than those were at the time, and they also don’t dissolve when they get wet, so I predict a good number will survive long term. We have an ST200 which is a keeper, my orange Performance Edition I’m yet to decide.
I've had standard Fiestas, the XR2i, Escort Cosworth, Focus RS and many other cars that in an ideal world I'd have kept (yes, there is a definite Ford focus (sic) - and for sure they'll be kept by many, but even now most of those cars aren't driven often.. the usual 'dry miles' and taken on low loaders to events, car shows etc.
Given there are cars that are significantly older still around, I don't think anyone is suggesting all ICE cars will be taken off the road, out of garages and museums and scrapped, with everyone pretending they never existed.
They just won't be driven on the roads much, given they'll likely be very expensive to fuel. If classic cars are already driven rarely, what will change in the future?
Even petrol heads will be driving an EV most of the time, and at best taking out their favourite gas guzzler for a weekend drive.
Just a thought on the speed of change between ICE and electric vehicles. If you already have a reasonably average car and use it an average amount, how long could you keep driving it before the fuel derived CO2 exceeded that emitted by the premature construction of a replacement electric? Would there be a case for saying no new ICE cars, but if you already have one carrying on using it until it is knackered is the lesser evil?
Just a thought on the speed of change between ICE and electric vehicles. If you already have a reasonably average car and use it an average amount, how long could you keep driving it before the fuel derived CO2 exceeded that emitted by the premature construction of a replacement electric? Would there be a case for saying no new ICE cars, but if you already have one carrying on using it until it is knackered is the lesser evil?
Just a thought on the speed of change between ICE and electric vehicles. If you already have a reasonably average car and use it an average amount, how long could you keep driving it before the fuel derived CO2 exceeded that emitted by the premature construction of a replacement electric? Would there be a case for saying no new ICE cars, but if you already have one carrying on using it until it is knackered is the lesser evil?
Apart from the lack of fgures indicating the carbon hit during manufacture and scrapping, there's the increasing obligation to make cars much more recyclabe. That will be even greater for EVs because they have far less components. The battery will be almost completely recycled as current research indicates that it will be a normal part of the vehicle recycling. Once the battery has been accounted for, the remaining hardware is much easier to recycle. Electric motors have been recycled since they were first introduced over 100 years ago so there's no change there. Vehicle bodies and suspension/final drive shafts similarly are equally recyclable. All electronics hardware is subject to existing WEEE disposal and processing.
Whilst the continued use of a small number of ICVs may delay the corbon footprint of their disposal, pitching their ongoing combustion of hydrocarbons against that footprint won't be the same as at present. Providing fossil fuels to the point of use will become very inefficent requiring less efficinet extraction from wells, lower efficiency in the cracking, and delivery directly to users by more transport, (the current pipeline network from docks to distribution centres will cease to be maintained for such low volumes so road transport will need to deliver from docks to every where it is made available. It's not just the cost and further environmental damage that continued low level combustion will cause, - the distributio of it will be much more inefficent. That alone would be a large part of the cost increase.
Just a thought on the speed of change between ICE and electric vehicles. If you already have a reasonably average car and use it an average amount, how long could you keep driving it before the fuel derived CO2 exceeded that emitted by the premature construction of a replacement electric? Would there be a case for saying no new ICE cars, but if you already have one carrying on using it until it is knackered is the lesser evil?
I posted a video further back that looks at this, and given it is a US video where fuel costs are lower you might expect it to be even lower mileage here.
Clearly in some cases you're better off with what you have, but it is still very low usage and even with low usage there are still parts that perish and need replacing and can make the upkeep of a car expensive. There are a lot less hoses and liquids in a EV, but you'd have to judge things on a case by case basis.
As I've said before, I opted to wait another 4 years before getting an EV and that's because a petrol car worked out cheaper for the extremely low mileage needed today. Plus, I want to wait to see the pending improvements in battery and charging tech, as well as charging infrastructure.
I don't see it as a bad thing but more of a new chapter in driving.
Just a thought on the speed of change between ICE and electric vehicles. If you already have a reasonably average car and use it an average amount, how long could you keep driving it before the fuel derived CO2 exceeded that emitted by the premature construction of a replacement electric? Would there be a case for saying no new ICE cars, but if you already have one carrying on using it until it is knackered is the lesser evil?
The key thing in that equation is not what you do with the ICE car (with one exception, below), but what happens to the car itself.
As long as someone is using the car (whether that be you or the person you sell it to) until it is beyond economic repair, then the vehicle is being maximised in terms of output for the carbon input for manufacturing.
The exception is if you scrap it when it still has life in it, eg through a scrappage scheme.
As an aside, it would be interesting to see data on vehicle ages on U.K. roads. I assume that the most recent full year is always the most prevalent (economic variations excepted), with each year older slightly fewer as writeoffs and then mechanicals increasingly take their toll. And then by about 25-30 years old, a very low base of classics, or those thought to be.
As an aside, it would be interesting to see data on vehicle ages on U.K. roads. I assume that the most recent full year is always the most prevalent (economic variations excepted), with each year older slightly fewer as writeoffs and then mechanicals increasingly take their toll. And then by about 25-30 years old, a very low base of classics, or those thought to be.
As an aside, it would be interesting to see data on vehicle ages on U.K. roads. I assume that the most recent full year is always the most prevalent (economic variations excepted), with each year older slightly fewer as writeoffs and then mechanicals increasingly take their toll. And then by about 25-30 years old, a very low base of classics, or those thought to be.
The increase right at the start of the graph may be a function of declining car sales but also cars being registered but not licensed (eg 2017 registered vehicles went from 2,331,119 in 2017, to 2,356,236 at end of 2018, before falling back to 2,334,866 at end of 2019. The plateau around 2010 would be I assume due to the GFC
2016 was the last year where the most recent year was the highest, all years since have seen numbers of previously registered cars grow!
Thanks both. Really interesting. That graph is perfect, and my educated guess of flatlining from 25-30 years out is a little long, looks more like 20-25 years.
I've had standard Fiestas, the XR2i, Escort Cosworth, Focus RS and many other cars that in an ideal world I'd have kept (yes, there is a definite Ford focus (sic) - and for sure they'll be kept by many, but even now most of those cars aren't driven often.. the usual 'dry miles' and taken on low loaders to events, car shows etc.
Given there are cars that are significantly older still around, I don't think anyone is suggesting all ICE cars will be taken off the road, out of garages and museums and scrapped, with everyone pretending they never existed.
They just won't be driven on the roads much, given they'll likely be very expensive to fuel. If classic cars are already driven rarely, what will change in the future?
Even petrol heads will be driving an EV most of the time, and at best taking out their favourite gas guzzler for a weekend drive.
This is exactly what I think will happen. There are some people however who think it will be impossible to drive an IC engined car at all in a few years time for some reason....
This is exactly what I think will happen. There are some people however who think it will be impossible to drive an IC engined car at all in a few years time for some reason....
I think there will be an interim period, like clean-air zones, where it will be hard to drive one in a city. But after that they will revert to being expensive toys and will probably be usable anywhere at a price.
I think there will be an interim period, like clean-air zones, where it will be hard to drive one in a city. But after that they will revert to being expensive toys and will probably be usable anywhere at a price.
I think there will be an interim period, like clean-air zones, where it will be hard to drive one in a city. But after that they will revert to being expensive toys and will probably be usable anywhere at a price.
Anyone still holding on to an ICV would, I imagine, being driving it for pleasure (bar the odd vehicle for display or other business reasons - old Citroen HYs and classic minis as props in photoshoot type things) and frankly driving for pleasure is incompatible with driving in a city! The only edge case are the people living and storing their ICVs in city areas, but I don't expect that to be a particularly huge number
Anyone still holding on to an ICV would, I imagine, being driving it for pleasure (bar the odd vehicle for display or other business reasons - old Citroen HYs and classic minis as props in photoshoot type things) and frankly driving for pleasure is incompatible with driving in a city! The only edge case are the people living and storing their ICVs in city areas, but I don't expect that to be a particularly huge number
Just created a new thread to discuss this as I think it's quite interesting.
Indeed. Governments and car manufacturers have been foolish in the way they have portrayed electric cars as a "knight in shining armour" that will solve transport issues.
They solve point-of-use emissions, and reduce carbon footprint by means of whatever proportion of the national grid's generation comes from renewables, but they are still inefficient in terms of space and still use resources to produce, especially the batteries which are probably worse than petrol engines. They also still cause a lot of noise and road building/maintainence is still disruptive. And they're still expensive, more so than petrol cars.
Society needs to accept that while EVs are definitely an improvement they are NOT the be-all and end-all of environmentally friendly travel. EVs undoubtedly have a place, outside of cities and towns where providing public transport to everyone would be impractical. But we still need to be pushing people towards public transport where possible, especially if we're also electrifying that public transport. And - even more importantly - walking and cycling.
I have discussed this at some length with many friends who do drive EVs or maybe would do and likewise people who wouldn't touch one. I admire anyone wanting to save the planet and reduce planet pollution. However.
With China building 100 new coal power stations soon and with the amount of pollution produced from emerging nations and also places like Russia, India and Japan and the Americas what we do on our tiny island is largely irrelevant as some here have already rightly said. 0.8 % of world pollution was mentioned. My studies would indicate 1.25%. But still it's pointless and cruel destroying people's lives financially by making life here too expensive to heat and eat for millions of people. Let alone tell them to find thirty grand for an electric Ford Fiesta fgs!
Also.Electric cars at perhaps 7 years old will be worthless almost. Buyers knowing a ten grand battery is round the corner. So many very small cars according to UK and USA car magazine columns will be effectively scrap metal.
Diesel was sold to us as the saviour then reality sank in and we were told to get rid of them. Electric cars are the current white elephant and the huge downsides will mean we'll be told to move on from them.
Basically what we do here will not stop the planet warming. Climate activists need to swap M25 for Beijing and Moscow!!
China currently has a cap on Coal power generation. Whilst it is true that with the (very) recent energy crisis there it is rethinking that policy, the number of new coal plants it builds is subject to much debate. What they have done is committed to emissions peaking in 2030, which is not compatible with large scale coal plant construction.
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(Link is to an Autotrader advert for a 7 year old Tesla S, nearly 100k miles, £34,495. That’s 50% depreciation in 7 years, something most BMW, Audi etc owners of cars that mileage will be rather envious of).
I have discussed this at some length with many friends who do drive EVs or maybe would do and likewise people who wouldn't touch one. I admire anyone wanting to save the planet and reduce planet pollution. However.
With China building 100 new coal power stations soon and with the amount of pollution produced from emerging nations and also places like Russia, India and Japan and the Americas what we do on our tiny island is largely irrelevant as some here have already rightly said. 0.8 % of world pollution was mentioned. My studies would indicate 1.25%. But still it's pointless and cruel destroying people's lives financially by making life here too expensive to heat and eat for millions of people. Let alone tell them to find thirty grand for an electric Ford Fiesta fgs!
Also.Electric cars at perhaps 7 years old will be worthless almost. Buyers knowing a ten grand battery is round the corner. So many very small cars according to UK and USA car magazine columns will be effectively scrap metal.
Diesel was sold to us as the saviour then reality sank in and we were told to get rid of them. Electric cars are the current white elephant and the huge downsides will mean we'll be told to move on from them.
Basically what we do here will not stop the planet warming. Climate activists need to swap M25 for Beijing and Moscow!!
The wholesale rate for wind / solar is around 2p / kW, gas £6p (and rising), Coal 10p, Nuclear 50p. The cost of heat has gone up as the cost of Gas has gone up and the UK is 90% dependant on it for heat. The price has gone up because we import it and demand has gone up & supply down. If we had switched to renewables there would not be a price increase, we would be like Norway with very cheap electric.
I assume that you have never bought a new car and probably cannot afford to pay all that money as most people cannot. Everyone buys on PCP / PCH with monthly payments. The total cost per month of an EV is lower than a Petrol car.
Please tell me where I can get a worthless EV, I want it! With an average battery life of 25 years and much longer warranties that legacy cars, they hold their value very well. Even if you wreck one, the motors & batteries have a high value for classic car conversions and static storage.
Luckily Extinction Rebellion & Climate strikes are worldwide and growing
To be fair, the wholesale rate is variable, and is whatever the market decides. Right now it is 25p/ kWh.
What you are quoting is the cost of production, and your figures are a little mixed. The ‘strike’ price (ie guaranteed minimum price) for Hinkley Point C is 10.6p at current prices, and that represents the long term whole life cost of the plant. Early Offshore wind projects had strike prices in the region of 16p, but the latest projects (yet to be built) are down at 4p. There’s another auction for offshore wind proposals due shortly, and I’d expect strike prices nearer 3p. But not 2p.
The two small slivers of good news of the recent hike in fossil fuel energy costs are that it makes renewable projects much more viable, and secondly that anything with a strike price below the current wholesale price does not require Govt subsidies, so it helps with Govt finances.
Agree. All Putin is achieving at the moment is accelerating a long term shift away from dependence upon gas and other fossil fuels.
I'm getting seriously tempted by a number of EV's, all quite different. Can't decide between an MG5, Hyundai Ioniq 5 or e208. I need to test drive reach of them. Apparently the MG5 can be had about £5k cheaper than list price too as there's a facelifted model coming soon.
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