Have electric vehicles been "oversold" to the detriment of public transport, walking and cycling?

[DustyBin]

I think it will happen a lot sooner than many IC diehards are thinking (probably wishfully). Several manufacturers have already announced their dates for turning all manufacturing over to EVs and stopping ICVs. Those dates are not 2030 and certainly any later than that. In 2028/9, they do not want an embarassment of vehicles that must be sold by the end of the year, it would be commercial suicide. Those petrolheads who assume that there will be queues of customers wanting to buy cars of a type that will be obsolete the next year are either oblivious to the change in demands (or are ignoring it, hoping that it isn't true). There will be no bumper sale of clearance vehicles that might be kept in use for the next 15-20 years.
Then, after 2030, the combined effect of reducing availability of spare parts, increasing fuel prices, increasing restrictions on where polluting cars can be used and most importantly the wishes of the majority of the population to see them off the road, running an IC car will rapidly for anything other than an occasional off-road event will become untenable.

The wishful thinking is on your part here (or maybe not but that’s how it comes across). The aim is to decarbonise transport, not ban people’s hobbies. Spare parts won’t be an issue. I can currently build an entire Ford OHV “crossflow” for example from brand new parts, and that engine finished production in the early ‘80s. Just about any obscure part can be made if it comes to it. Fuel prices will increase (since when have they decreased!) but not the extent that driving an IC engined car occasionally becomes unviable. The majority of people want to tackle climate change, not ban IC engined vehicles altogether. Once vehicle emissions are no longer an issue I expect attitudes, along with legislation, to relax.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The wishful thinking is on your part here (or maybe not but that’s how it comes across). The aim is to decarbonise transport, not ban people’s hobbies. Spare parts won’t be an issue. I can currently build an entire Ford OHV “crossflow” for example from brand new parts, and that engine finished production in the early ‘80s. Just about any obscure part can be made if it comes to it. Fuel prices will increase (since when have they decreased!) but not the extent that driving an IC engined car occasionally becomes unviable. The majority of people want to tackle climate change, not ban IC engined vehicles altogether. Once vehicle emissions are no longer an issue I expect attitudes, along with legislation, to relax.

In that sense quite possibly comparable to clean air zones, which are basically unenforced now having a real fire is only a hobby thing, not a primary means of heating. That said it is rapidly becoming an issue again.

 

[ABB125]

In that sense quite possibly comparable to clean air zones, which are basically unenforced now having a real fire is only a hobby thing, not a primary means of heating. That said it is rapidly becoming an issue again.

You say that, but during the winter at home the wood burner is often used as the main source of heating, with the (oil-fired) central heating turned off. Not every day, but certainly during colder spells. Admittedly we do benefit from a free source of (mostly!) dry wood, so the cost is effectively zero. (This is in a small village, so particulate emissions aren't really a problem (and who doesn't like the smell of woodsmoke on a cold winter evening? ); the main pollution hazard is the very busy (20,000 AADT) single-carriageway road which passes right by the village (and is the only access by car)).

My maternal grandparents use their wood burner even more: they don't have central heating (well, they do, but there hasn't been a boiler attached for probably at least 20 years!), and make extensive use of plug-in electric heaters. A fire is far, far cheaper to run (especially as they also benefit from the same source of free wood).

 

[seagull]

Also, and why I am fairly sure running or maintaining an ICE vehicle will still be feasible (if not as cheap) for a considerable period yet: don't forget we are not the only country in the world.

For example: one can still buy the parts for and assemble a 1960s tractor: or buy a complete new "reproduction" one from India (TAFE).

More modern vehicles with computery bits, maybe more of a challenge.

The practicality of running one I am sure will become highly challenging as time goes by: much like running a steam traction engine would if used often.

 

[AM9]

The wishful thinking is on your part here (or maybe not but that’s how it comes across). The aim is to decarbonise transport, not ban people’s hobbies. Spare parts won’t be an issue. I can currently build an entire Ford OHV “crossflow” for example from brand new parts, and that engine finished production in the early ‘80s. Just about any obscure part can be made if it comes to it. Fuel prices will increase (since when have they decreased!) but not the extent that driving an IC engined car occasionally becomes unviable. The majority of people want to tackle climate change, not ban IC engined vehicles altogether. Once vehicle emissions are no longer an issue I expect attitudes, along with legislation, to relax.

There's no wishful thinking on my part. The government's aim as you say is to decarbonise transport. They have determined (with motor industry agreement) that legislating a 2030 cutoff of new ICVs will substantially remove most of them in a relatively short period. That is all they needed to do. The rest of the job will be done by commercial pressures as I explained. Indeed, it is already having a large impact where EV sales have outnumbered diesel ICVs and that is in a market where EVs are more expensive and in short supply.
Now this isn't absolute fact, nobody here has facts about future public attitudes, but as above I think that by the way public opinion is going, ICVs will be seen increasingly in the majoritry of the public's mind as obstructions to dealing with climate change, - they are conspicuous by their emissions, their smell and their noise, especially in built-up areas. Increasing legislation restricting where ICVs can be driven will create clean areas where the public can expect to breathe unpolluted air. The recent case of the Lewisham child who's death was officially attributed to local traffic pollution will have a motivational impact* on politicians who ignore the damage that ICVs are doing to health in the interest of commercial pressure. These are all factors that I think will add to the flushing out of ICVs from public streets.
*or at least activate their sense of self-preservation.

 

[37424]

I suspect the issue with keeping ICE vehicles after 2040 will be the number of outlets that still sell the fuel will be very small, and as production winds down and demand reduces it may be very costly to buy.

 

[DustyBin]

In that sense quite possibly comparable to clean air zones, which are basically unenforced now having a real fire is only a hobby thing, not a primary means of heating. That said it is rapidly becoming an issue again.

Quite possibly yes (and I agree its becoming an issue).

Also, and why I am fairly sure running or maintaining an ICE vehicle will still be feasible (if not as cheap) for a considerable period yet: don't forget we are not the only country in the world.

For example: one can still buy the parts for and assemble a 1960s tractor: or buy a complete new "reproduction" one from India (TAFE).

More modern vehicles with computery bits, maybe more of a challenge.

The practicality of running one I am sure will become highly challenging as time goes by: much like running a steam traction engine would if used often.

You’re right, but anything can be done. As technology moves on so does the ability to repair/restore it. Fuel injection, ECUs etc. are great examples of once cutting edge technology that people play with for fun now.

There's no wishful thinking on my part. The government's aim as you say is to decarbonise transport. They have determined (with motor industry agreement) that legislating a 2030 cutoff of new ICVs will substantially remove most of them in a relatively short period. That is all they needed to do. The rest of the job will be done by commercial pressures as I explained. Indeed, it is already having a large impact where EV sales have outnumbered diesel ICVs and that is in a market where EVs are more expensive and in short supply.
Now this isn't absolute fact, nobody here has facts about future public attitudes, but as above I think that by the way public opinion is going, ICVs will be seen increasingly in the majoritry of the public's mind as obstructions to dealing with climate change, - they are conspicuous by their emissions, their smell and their noise, especially in built-up areas. Increasing legislation restricting where ICVs can be driven will create clean areas where the public can expect to breathe unpolluted air. The recent case of the Lewisham child who's death was officially attributed to local traffic pollution will have a motivational impact* on politicianswho ignore the damage that ICVs are doing to health in the interest of commercial pressure. These are all factors that I think will add to the flushing out of ICVs from public streets.
*or at least activate their sense of self-preservation.

I’m not disputing (most of) what you’re saying but I don’t think there’s a widespread public sentiment that supports a blanket ban on all IC engined vehicles. People don’t by and large have an issue with people owning and using firearms for example which is a much more “controversial” past time than going for a drive in a petrol engined car IMO.

 

[AM9]

Quite possibly yes (and I agree its becoming an issue).



You’re right, but anything can be done. As technology moves on so does the ability to repair/restore it. Fuel injection, ECUs etc. are great examples of once cutting edge technology that people play with for fun now.



I’m not disputing (most of) what you’re saying but I don’t think there’s a widespread public sentiment that supports a blanket ban on all IC engined vehicles. People don’t by and large have an issue with people owning and using firearms for example which is a much more “controversial” past time than going for a drive in a petrol engined car IMO.

I didn't say that there is a widespread public sentiment that supports a blanket ban on all IC engined vehicles - now. I said:

"Now this isn't absolute fact, nobody here has facts about future public attitudes, but as above I think that by the way public opinion is going, ICVs will be seen increasingly in the majoritry of the public's mind as obstructions to dealing with climate change, - they are conspicuous by their emissions, their smell and their noise, especially in built-up areas."​

That is a personal view of how public opinion will go in the future, so your not thinking that "there’s a widespread public sentiment that supports a blanket ban on all IC engined vehicles", at present, is not an issue.​

Personally I would have have no issue with leisure use of ICVs off public roads and away form residential areas. Those who wish to join them to play with for fun can do so, but forcing ordinary members of the public to put up with the intrusive use of ICVs in their normal lives is unacceptable now and will be much more so when almost all road vehicles and their owners are much more considerate.

 

[DustyBin]

I didn't say that there is a widespread public sentiment that supports a blanket ban on all IC engined vehicles - now. I said:

"Now this isn't absolute fact, nobody here has facts about future public attitudes, but as above I think that by the way public opinion is going, ICVs will be seen increasingly in the majoritry of the public's mind as obstructions to dealing with climate change, - they are conspicuous by their emissions, their smell and their noise, especially in built-up areas."​

That is a personal view of how public opinion will go in the future, so your not thinking that "there’s a widespread public sentiment that supports a blanket ban on all IC engined vehicles", at present, is not an issue.​

Personally I would have have no issue with leisure use of ICVs off public roads and away form residential areas. Those who wish to join them to play with for fun can do so, but forcing ordinary members of the public to put up with the intrusive use of ICVs in their normal lives is unacceptable now and will be much more so when almost all road vehicles and their owners are much more considerate.

Ok then, I don’t think there will ever be a widespread sentiment that says IC engined vehicles should be banned from public roads. People are going to adopt EVs, that’s a certainty. They aren’t however going to see a small number of IC engined vehicles remaining in (largely occasional) use as some kind of threat to the planet. I know I’ve raised this before but if we reach that stage then surely heritage railways, vintage aircraft etc. etc. will also be in the firing line. We’re into the realms of petty authoritarianism here.

With respect, what you’re advocating in your final paragraph is a ban on IC engined vehicles so why not say as much?

 

[AM9]

Ok then, I don’t think there will ever be a widespread sentiment that says IC engined vehicles should be banned from public roads. People are going to adopt EVs, that’s a certainty. They aren’t however going to see a small number of IC engined vehicles remaining in (largely occasional) use as some kind of threat to the planet. I know I’ve raised this before but if we reach that stage then surely heritage railways, vintage aircraft etc. etc. will also be in the firing line. We’re into the realms of petty authoritarianism here.

With respect, what you’re advocating in your final paragraph is a ban on IC engined vehicles so why not say as much?

"On public roads and away from residential areas", (with typo corrected) was what I said. Public roads are there for the 'public', and I think that the will of the public will prevail. Once the polluting, noisy versions of private transport have been largely removed from the streets, the few that are left will become increasingly conspicuous. As was mentioned above, there is a rising tide of objections to the noxious outputs of log burners that are a fad at the moment, and I recall that some local authorities are beginning to consider prohibiting them under clean air laws.

 

[reddragon]

Ok then, I don’t think there will ever be a widespread sentiment that says IC engined vehicles should be banned from public roads. People are going to adopt EVs, that’s a certainty. They aren’t however going to see a small number of IC engined vehicles remaining in (largely occasional) use as some kind of threat to the planet. I know I’ve raised this before but if we reach that stage then surely heritage railways, vintage aircraft etc. etc. will also be in the firing line. We’re into the realms of petty authoritarianism here.

With respect, what you’re advocating in your final paragraph is a ban on IC engined vehicles so why not say as much?

In 2011 when the Nissan LEAF appeared there was one rapid charger at the Ecotricity HQ, that was it and over 10,000 petrol stations. Now Charging stations exceed the number of petrol stations. Charging stations are opening at 250 / month and Petrol stations are closing. We are about to go below 8000 open

By 2030 many petrol stations will have closed and prices gone up, a lot. By 2040 there will be no petrol stations as we know them because all cars & vans will have switched. Only commercial sites will remain for farms, HGVs & coaches, as by then all buses will have switched.

For you to get petrol you will have to go to a classic car place with an above ground tank, like a heating oil tank or as seen in lorry depots. Fuel deliveries will be limited to farms, commercial depots etc.

At this point you getting Petrol will be difficult & costly. You maybe required to transport your petrol car / bike on a flatbed.

Get real!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Petrol stations these days make most money off selling other stuff, not fuel, so I would expect many of the sites will remain open but turned into small supermarkets with a coffee bit (as they pretty much are now) but with a car park with chargers outside rather than pumps. This means the transition on any given site could be slow - keep one pump until quite late, say.

 

[reddragon]

Petrol stations these days make most money off selling other stuff, not fuel, so I would expect many of the sites will remain open but turned into small supermarkets with a coffee bit (as they pretty much are now) but with a car park with chargers outside rather than pumps. This means the transition on any given site could be slow - keep one pump until quite late, say.

The issue for them is the tanks. They have a finite life and need inspections. Nobody will invest anymore.

I agree that larger sites may run down slowly, maybe keeping a small underground tank for petrol (you are not allowed to store it above ground in any quantity) and maybe a diesel tank sat in the corner. The range of fuel types will drop rapidly with diesel probably going first especially in cities.

 

[johncrossley]

Petrol stations these days make most money off selling other stuff, not fuel

I thought that too, until I saw that many if not most petrol stations in the Netherlands and Belgium are unmanned, at least some of the time.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I thought that too, until I saw that many if not most petrol stations in the Netherlands and Belgium are unmanned, at least some of the time.

It is the case in the UK, which is why the only place you see unmanned ones is supermarkets where the shop they want you to go in is the actual supermarket - that is, people will build getting fuel into a trip to Asda, and choose that over Sainsbury's (random examples) because the former has cheap fuel.

I don't know about France which is where our hypermarket concept came from, but most of the rest of Europe doesn't have many big hypermarkets, people shop more locally in stores that are more Aldi-sized and often not by car, so the supermarket fuel thing didn't take off. It was that that pushed prices down to the point that just selling fuel wasn't very profitable, and killed off a lot of small, independent fuel-only type places.

(Fuel isn't much more expensive and sometimes cheaper on the mainland, but that's because the tax rates are a bit lower - if their tax rates were the same as ours it would be more expensive than here and hence more profitable)

 

[DustyBin]

"On public roads and away from residential areas", (with typo corrected) was what I said. Public roads are there for the 'public', and I think that the will of the public will prevail. Once the polluting, noisy versions of private transport have been largely removed from the streets, the few that are left will become increasingly conspicuous. As was mentioned above, there is a rising tide of objections to the noxious outputs of log burners that are a fad at the moment, and I recall that some local authorities are beginning to consider prohibiting them under clean air laws.

Fair enough, that typo correction is rather significant though!

I still don’t agree that being increasingly conspicuous etc. will be a problem as the majority of people will realise that a small number of ICVs on the road is nothing to worry about.
Log burners have become an issue because they are a fad as you say, and their increasing popularity means that they are increasingly contributing to emissions. It’s akin to reintroducing new ICVs in say 2050 which would be silly so it’s understandable that they may be restricted/prohibit

In 2011 when the Nissan LEAF appeared there was one rapid charger at the Ecotricity HQ, that was it and over 10,000 petrol stations. Now Charging stations exceed the number of petrol stations. Charging stations are opening at 250 / month and Petrol stations are closing. We are about to go below 8000 open

By 2030 many petrol stations will have closed and prices gone up, a lot. By 2040 there will be no petrol stations as we know them because all cars & vans will have switched. Only commercial sites will remain for farms, HGVs & coaches, as by then all buses will have switched.

For you to get petrol you will have to go to a classic car place with an above ground tank, like a heating oil tank or as seen in lorry depots. Fuel deliveries will be limited to farms, commercial depots etc.

At this point you getting Petrol will be difficult & costly. You maybe required to transport your petrol car / bike on a flatbed.

Get real!

I don’t need to “get real”, petrol will still be available at an increased cost and at a much diminished number of locations, probably indefinitely. There will be enough demand for it, whether you like it or not.

It’s clear we have contributors with extreme views on either side of the debate here. One side refuses to accept that EVs are the future and wants everybody driving V8s, the other thinks all IC engined vehicles are going to disappear as nobody could possibly have the means or the will to keep them on the road. The reality is that we’ll all be driving EVs as everyday transport and those who wish to spend their money owning and driving IC engined vehicles will continue to do so. The number of people who do wish to do so will be small as they will invariably be enthusiasts who are a niche group. It’s quite simple really!

 

[jon0844]

I can see people keeping their beloved vehicles (so more likely a sports car than a Vauxhall Astra) and taking them to track days, which will sell fuel at a hefty premium, and they might even be kept in storage at remote locations or transported on (electric powered) low loaders. Or you might simply hire a classic car to race and reminisce in, rather than keep in your home garage collection.

I can also see them becoming increasingly expensive to use on public roads as time goes on, with more places potentially banning road use entirely (like city centres).

 

[AM9]

I can see people keeping their beloved vehicles (so more likely a sports car than a Vauxhall Astra) and taking them to track days, which will sell fuel at a hefty premium, and they might even be kept in storage at remote locations or transported on (electric powered) low loaders. Or you might simply hire a classic car to race and reminisce in, rather than keep in your home garage collection.

I can also see them becoming increasingly expensive to use on public roads as time goes on, with more places potentially banning road use entirely (like city centres).

That's where I think we will be in 20-30 years. There will probably be the odd special event on public roads for classic IC cars e.g. the London To Brighton rally, but potentially, in view of the fuel situation by then, to take part would need a specific permit for the event. The cost of entering the rally would then be of the order of providing support vehicles and specialists, (all following in EVs of course).

 

[DustyBin]

I can see people keeping their beloved vehicles (so more likely a sports car than a Vauxhall Astra) and taking them to track days, which will sell fuel at a hefty premium, and they might even be kept in storage at remote locations or transported on (electric powered) low loaders. Or you might simply hire a classic car to race and reminisce in, rather than keep in your home garage collection.

I can also see them becoming increasingly expensive to use on public roads as time goes on, with more places potentially banning road use entirely (like city centres).

That's where I think we will be in 20-30 years. There will probably be the odd special event on public roads for classic IC cars e.g. the London To Brighton rally, but potentially, in view of the fuel situation by then, to take part would need a specific permit for the event. The cost of entering the rally would then be of the order of providing support vehicles and specialists, (all following in EVs of course).

I think we'll have to agree to disagree here. I honestly don't think things will go this far. Owning and driving classic and/or performance cars will continue to be an expensive, niche hobby just as it is now. They'll still be permitted on public roads, except perhaps for some legacy low/zero emission zones (with exemptions for people living within them). As I keep repeating, the aim is to tackle climate change by decarbonising transport; we can do that without imposing draconian rules on a small number of ICV owners.

 

[jon0844]

I think we can debate the time frames, 20, 30 or 40 years but accept it's going to happen. At least the cost will be such that it will either be for the rich boys (and girls) and their toys, or special events that people could get involved in that are run under controlled conditions.

The cost of fuel and other road charges will almost certainly stop most people from being able to continue driving their traditional car as they did, even if they could afford it.

Plus, the only cars likely to be allowed near normal access to the roads will be cars that are currently considered to be low emission, and fuel efficient, which arguably aren't the cars people want to keep running. The muscle/sports cars are already hit hard, so will be hit even harder.

Who wants to keep a 1 litre Fiesta going 30 years after EVs have become the norm?

Even EVs will have to attract more income for Governments, so I expect there will be some sort of grading system there one day. Perhaps based on the efficiency of the motor, or the type of battery used (and how easy they can be serviced/recycled). We can't kid ourselves that EVs will always be cheap to run!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think we'll have to agree to disagree here. I honestly don't think things will go this far. Owning and driving classic and/or performance cars will continue to be an expensive, niche hobby just as it is now. They'll still be permitted on public roads, except perhaps for some legacy low/zero emission zones (with exemptions for people living within them). As I keep repeating, the aim is to tackle climate change by decarbonising transport; we can do that without imposing draconian rules on a small number of ICV owners.

If anything, control in cities might be lower because they'd be a more niche thing. A bit like the way clean air zones are no longer really enforced because most people now have gas central heating.

 

[DustyBin]

If anything, control in cities might be lower because they'd be a more niche thing. A bit like the way clean air zones are no longer really enforced because most people now have gas central heating.

Quite possibly (to be honest that's why I said "legacy low/zero emission zones" as in theory they should be redundant).

 

[cjmillsnun]

The wishful thinking is on your part here (or maybe not but that’s how it comes across). The aim is to decarbonise transport, not ban people’s hobbies. Spare parts won’t be an issue. I can currently build an entire Ford OHV “crossflow” for example from brand new parts, and that engine finished production in the early ‘80s. Just about any obscure part can be made if it comes to it. Fuel prices will increase (since when have they decreased!) but not the extent that driving an IC engined car occasionally becomes unviable. The majority of people want to tackle climate change, not ban IC engined vehicles altogether. Once vehicle emissions are no longer an issue I expect attitudes, along with legislation, to relax.

To be fair the Ford Crossflow continued well beyond the early 80s and didn’t die until the Zetec SE engine replaced it in the Mk4 Fiesta (2000)

 

[DustyBin]

To be fair the Ford Crossflow continued well beyond the early 80s and didn’t die until the Zetec SE engine in the Mk4 Fiesta (2000)

Sorry I was talking about the 1.6 "Kent" engine specifically, not the "Valencia" engine which was also a Crossflow (although the former did actually continue production in small numbers into the 90s, long after it was dropped as a current engine option, so I'll give you that). Anyway my point still stands; obsolescence isn't necessarily an issue. You can build a brand new "Pinto" as well if that's your thing!

 

[AM9]

Quite possibly (to be honest that's why I said "legacy low/zero emission zones" as in theory they should be redundant).

Once the infrastructure is in place, the cost of keeping it going is virtually zero, and given the increasing automation applied to the systems, it would be as simple as e-mailing a notice of any violation to the resistered keeper.

 

[DustyBin]

Once the infrastructure is in place, the cost of keeping it going is virtually zero, and given the increasing automation applied to the systems, it would be as simple as e-mailing a notice of any violation to the resistered keeper.

That's true I don't dispute it. However it's quite possible that there's no enforcement or exemptions are made. Currently it's free to tax a vehicle over 40 years old so there's a precedent for goodwill being exercised when it comes to classic cars. (Only two years to go until my XR4i reaches 40 years of age come to think of it!).

 

[Ediswan]

Once the infrastructure is in place, the cost of keeping it going is virtually zero, and given the increasing automation applied to the systems, it would be as simple as e-mailing a notice of any violation to the resistered keeper.

On the cost of operating the London Low Emission Zone:
https://www.london.gov.uk/questions/2005/1900

2004/5 - 2009/10 includes £12.8 million capital costs for the introduction of a London Low Emission Zone. In addition, some £20 million in operating costs

That was the most recent I can find. Automated systems are not free to operate.

 

[Trog]

Just a thought but are brakes and tyres not becoming the largest source of particulate pollution from cars? Each tyre for example losing about 1kg in weight between new and scrap conditions. So from a pollution point of view the change to electric becomes somewhat irrelevant.

To my mind the fact that this is an agenda being pushed by government almost guarantees that it will turn out to be wrong. In the same way that people were forced to buy those useless compact florescent bulbs, that were only fit for the bin, and the big push to use diesel to reduce CO2 followed immediately by why are you stupid people buying diesel cars when the problem is particulates.

 

[py_megapixel]

In the same way that people were forced to buy those useless compact florescent bulbs, that were only fit for the bin

I still have some CFLs running today, and they're doing a perfectly good job. What about them was "only fit for the bin"?

They were rubbish in some applications, and admittedly should have been labelled more clearly with what they should have been used for, but for general indoor illumination they were fine.

 

[Trog]

Too dim for me to read by or do close work, the only place I found that they were useful was as loft lights.