Will we ever see an Open Access Operator on the West Coast Mainline?.

[james60059]

With the East Coast Mainline now seeing LUMO up and running between London Kings Cross and Edinburgh (not to mention Grand Central and Hull Trains), will we ever seen an OAO on the West Coast Mainline?. I know we had Grand Central almost good to go but sadly the pandemic put paid to that .

Moderators: Please add to another category if you feel it's more appropriate

 

[JonathanH]

A bit more difficult to prove there are gaps in the provision on the west coast side than it has been on the east coast side.

There have been a number of different proposals over the years eg - https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/alliance-rail-gnwr-gets-network-rail-approval.101898/

 

[deltic]

Once HS2 commences then there will be more opportunities for new open access operators

 

[JonathanH]

Once HS2 commences then there will be more opportunities for new open access operators

Will there? Will they a) be able to make money, b) be able to justify their paths against the competing demands of freight and the incumbent operators stopping at more stations?

The planning for the capacity released by HS2 doesn't explicitly indicate that the purpose is to free it up to allow open access operators to run services. Indeed, the public documents make assumptions about how the capacity will be used.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Will there? Will they a) be able to make money, b) be able to justify their paths against the competing demands of freight and the incumbent operators stopping at more stations?

The planning for the capacity released by HS2 doesn't explicitly indicate that the purpose is to free it up to allow open access operators to run services. Indeed, the public documents make assumptions about how the capacity will be used.

Though a lot of that was based on high commuter demand. At present you'd satisfy all south WCML demand by running an all week Saturday timetable with 12 car in the direction of peak demand.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Will there be any Open Access services on HS2?

 

[JonathanH]

Though a lot of that was based on high commuter demand. At present you'd satisfy all south WCML demand by running an all week Saturday timetable with 12 car in the direction of peak demand.

Yes, I can imagine that isn't far off the mark. However, even the Saturday timetable may not have an open access path in it. Commuter demand is sometimes managed by dropping the freight.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Will there be any Open Access services on HS2?

I doubt it, all paths are allocated, aren't they? Certainly with the reduced Euston platforms.

 

[JonathanH]

Will there be any Open Access services on HS2?

The paths are accounted for by the operator(s) appointed by the DfT.

Would an auction to the highest bidder (with the DfT deciding on destinations and rolling stock) be better than allocating them all to one operator? It would be highly impractical to manage at the Euston end.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes, I can imagine that isn't far off the mark. However, even the Saturday timetable may not have an open access path in it. Commuter demand is sometimes managed by dropping the freight.

Post HS2 there's the minor point of the classic InterCity service being dropped from 9 to 3tph, if I understand correctly. Some of that capacity was to be used for increased south WCML commuter services but I think it's now very debatable as to whether those will be needed or whether some of that capacity could be put to other uses.

Alongside that is the question of whether GBR will wish to permit any additional Open Access in the first place. While the UK was in the EU it had to do so, now we have left it does not; any law mandating it could be easily repealed.

 

[gordonthemoron]

Post HS2 there's the minor point of the classic InterCity service being dropped from 9 to 3tph, if I understand correctly. Some of that capacity was to be used for increased south WCML commuter services but I think it's now very debatable as to whether those will be needed or whether some of that capacity could be put to other uses.

Alongside that is the question of whether GBR will wish to permit any additional Open Access in the first place. While the UK was in the EU it had to do so, now we have left it does not; any law mandating it could be easily repealed.

I expect they'll add at least one more InterCity service per hour to serve Coventry, and make all the InterCity services stop at Rugby, Milton Keynes and Watford

 

[Wolfie]

Will there be any Open Access services on HS2?

In my view no chance. There is no way HMG/HMT are going to incur that level of infrastructure expenditure and then permit income loss.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Oct 2021 ==

The paths are accounted for by the operator(s) appointed by the DfT.

Would an auction to the highest bidder (with the DfT deciding on destinations and rolling stock) be better than allocating them all to one operator? It would be highly impractical to manage at the Euston end.

Better for who?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Oct 2021 ==

Post HS2 there's the minor point of the classic InterCity service being dropped from 9 to 3tph, if I understand correctly. Some of that capacity was to be used for increased south WCML commuter services but I think it's now very debatable as to whether those will be needed or whether some of that capacity could be put to other uses.

Alongside that is the question of whether GBR will wish to permit any additional Open Access in the first place. While the UK was in the EU it had to do so, now we have left it does not; any law mandating it could be easily repealed.

It is ironic that the EU law that you mention was inspired and championed by UK....

 

[deltic]

.

Alongside that is the question of whether GBR will wish to permit any additional Open Access in the first place. While the UK was in the EU it had to do so, now we have left it does not; any law mandating it could be easily repealed.

The answer to that will probably depend on which political party is in power - I can see the Treasury and the ORR, if it still has a role in the passenger market, wanting to retain the threat of potential new entrants to keep GBR on its toes and not become complacent.

 

[JonathanH]

The answer to that will probably depend on which political party is in power - I can see the Treasury and the ORR, if it still has a role in the passenger market, wanting to retain the threat of potential new entrants to keep GBR on its toes and not become complacent.

Huh? The Treasury wants to pay the lowest possible cost for the railways it can. Therefore, it wants a monopoly situation (at the point passengers are paying fares) and revenue being maximised by its operators, in particular by charging as much for fares as possible. Open access and money bring extracted is not part of that narrative.

In the future, it keeps its operator on its toes by going for the bidder who is going to provide the service at the lowest cost.

If an open access operator can come along and make the treasury have to pay less to support services maybe it might be interested but they won't be i business for long.

 

[deltic]

Huh? The Treasury wants to pay the lowest possible cost for the railways it can. Therefore, it wants a monopoly situation (at the point passengers are paying fares) and revenue being maximised by its operators, in particular by charging as much for fares as possible. Open access and money bring extracted is not part of that narrative.

In the future, it keeps its operator on its toes by going for the bidder who is going to provide the service at the lowest cost.

If an open access operator can come along and make the treasury have to pay less to support services maybe it might be interested but they won't be i business for long.

The Treasury was very keen on breaking up state controlled monopolies - competition drives innovation and reduces cost- the last thing Treasury wants is BR mark 2 which has a cosy relationship with half a dozen contractors providing the actual rail service and a stagnating rail product. It will want something to keep beating GBR with which open access operators will be one.

 

[mrcheek]

If Lumo is a success on the ECML, I suspect they will soon want to expand to the WCML too.

How about non-stop services from Euston to manchester, Liverpool, and Glasgow?

 

[JonathanH]

If Lumo is a success on the ECML, I suspect they will soon want to expand to the WCML too.

How about non-stop services from Euston to manchester, Liverpool, and Glasgow?

No room for dedicated non stop services.

 

[The Planner]

Grand Union to Stirling is far from dead, they have paths.

 

[JonathanH]

Grand Union to Stirling is far from dead, they have paths.

Do they have a viable market, rolling stock and business plan?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Grand Union to Stirling is far from dead, they have paths.

Have they? As far as i know they haven’t been granted those paths by the ORR yet.

 

[The Planner]

Have they? As far as i know they haven’t been granted those paths by the ORR yet.

They are included in the Dec 22 rewrite.

 

[waverley47]

They are included in the Dec 22 rewrite.

However the political decision is looking somewhat shaky. General assumption is that the longer everyone holds their breath, the more likely it is that Grand Union will fold out.

The already dubious business case now looks febrile at best. The mk4s they were going to use are quickly disappearing to TfW or scrap, or staying with LNER for the forseeable. The incoming GBR is likely to take a dim view of new open access operators for the first year or so while kinks are ironed out.

There are other issues with power supply, occupying a platform at Stirling for potentially 2 hours at a time, traction (potentially the hypothetical cl 93s which I'm still somewhat certain we'll never actually see) ect.

I'm not saying it will never happen, but I'd put a hundred quid on the Grand Union Trains Stirling service never turning a wheel in anger.

(Furthermore, the intended start date of May 2021 now seems laughable, and the website hasn't been updated in at least a year at this point)

 

[Trackman]

I think VT had a pop at this after Avanti took over but was booted out.

 

[swt_passenger]

I think VT had a pop at this after Avanti took over but was booted out.

Their proposal was for a Liverpool - Euston wasn’t it? I think their PR glossed over the withdrawal blaming uncertainties about the Williams report. I think there were some assumptions about using ‘their’ Voyagers - and the Voyagers were already earmarked for something else, and wouldn’t have looked too good on a fully electrified route either…

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

They are included in the Dec 22 rewrite.

Oh any documents relating to this

 

[The Planner]

Oh any documents relating to this

Not yet, it will be subject to the same sort of consultation as other recent ones soon enough.

 

[Bald Rick]

Will there? Will they a) be able to make money, b) be able to justify their paths against the competing demands of freight and the incumbent operators stopping at more stations?

c) be allowed to?

Post HS2 there's the minor point of the classic InterCity service being dropped from 9 to 3tph, if I understand correctly

4tph

Grand Union to Stirling is far from dead, they have paths.

But no access rights.

 

[Royston Vasey]

However the political decision is looking somewhat shaky. General assumption is that the longer everyone holds their breath, the more likely it is that Grand Union will fold out.

The already dubious business case now looks febrile at best. The mk4s they were going to use are quickly disappearing to TfW or scrap, or staying with LNER for the forseeable. The incoming GBR is likely to take a dim view of new open access operators for the first year or so while kinks are ironed out.

There are other issues with power supply, occupying a platform at Stirling for potentially 2 hours at a time, traction (potentially the hypothetical cl 93s which I'm still somewhat certain we'll never actually see) ect.

I'm not saying it will never happen, but I'd put a hundred quid on the Grand Union Trains Stirling service never turning a wheel in anger.

(Furthermore, the intended start date of May 2021 now seems laughable, and the website hasn't been updated in at least a year at this point)

I can sense DML Devonport getting ready for a HST refurbishment contract all over again*!

HSTs are about all that is available!


*(Ironic comment relating to their botched/inadequate power car overhaul for Grand Central in 2007)

 

[Starmill]

Lumo are trying to carve out a budget market, but lots of the budget market on the West Coast was already being carried by West Midlands Trains.

Of course, you can also go after the premium market, as Hull Trains do, but where is the equivalent of Selby, Brough, Hull and Beverley with few or no fast London services?

 

[Kite159]

Lumo are trying to carve out a budget market, but lots of the budget market on the West Coast was already being carried by West Midlands Trains.

Of course, you can also go after the premium market, as Hull Trains do, but where is the equivalent of Selby, Brough, Hull and Beverley with few or no fast London services?

Coming soon... Southport Trains Calling at Rugby, Crewe, Wigan Wallgate, Burscough Bridge & Southport

Agreed about West Midlands already carrying the budget market at the southern end of the WCML.