New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[35B]

The virus doesn't work on two week cycles its dynamic and it irritates the hell out of me that they only schedule a review every few weeks. It should be managed on a day by day basis and restrictions, up or down, adjusted accordingly to the current sit rep [You don't fight wars on a two week cycle].

The virus doesn't work like that, but businesses do. You can't just tell them to open or close without any warning.

Quite. And using trends rather than one-off snapshots of data is necessary - there are plenty on here who've complained about kneejerk reactions the other way.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Feb 2021 ==

I'm up for criteria, but they must be primarily focused on Vaccinations and NHS loadings, rather than worrying about mild cases in healthy people.

Indeed - and understand the changing relationships between case numbers, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths as vaccinations spread further and further will be critical.

 

[cuccir]

By then we will be in the best position we will ever be in as regards vaccines, so if lockdowns are "necessary"

I don't think we will be in the best position by next winter. A large number of people will need revaccinating, and this will take time. While most people globally are not vaccinated, mutations will happen and it is likely that at best they'll result in only mid level protection from covid-19.

I want to be clear - I said 'some lockdown restrictions'. I'm not predicting months of lockdown with mass stay at home orders, mass school closures.

To say we will probably need a little next winter is not to say we will need constant winter lockdowns every year. I don't think we will. Global vaccination levels will be much higher by winter 22-23 and that will make a big difference as mutations will be less likely. And multiple revaccinations + people getting through moderate level infection will built herd immunity.

But I'd say it's more likely than not that they'll be something more mid-level which mitigates the spread of possible mild-severe outbreak (ie hospitalisations but with fewer deaths) eg hospitality closed in January, an extended winter break from schools to 3 or 4 weeks etc. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with mutations but that's not the most likely outcome.

We have to be clear what vaccines can and can't do. I've had the MMR jab and I've also had both measles and mumps. I was pretty ill but didn't die. I think next winter we may well see something similar with covid-19 which will require some moderate steps that are between no restrictions and full lockdown.

 

[DB]

I don't think we will be in the best position by next winter. A large number of people will need revaccinating, and this will take time. While most people globally are not vaccinated, mutations will happen and it is likely that at best they'll result in only mid level protection from covid-19.

Everyone here will have been offered a vaccine. What happens in other countries is not really relevant - we are not aiming for eradication, so it'll still be spreading anyway at some level. Mutations are going to happen whatever, as they do with flu (although this seems less prone than flu), so again not really an issue which is particular to just next winter. None of this is anywhere near sufficient to justify any restrictions.

 

[takno]

I don't think we will be in the best position by next winter. A large number of people will need revaccinating, and this will take time. While most people globally are not vaccinated, mutations will happen and it is likely that at best they'll result in only mid level protection from covid-19.

I want to be clear - I said 'some lockdown restrictions'. I'm not predicting months of lockdown with mass stay at home orders, mass school closures.

To say we will probably need a little next winter is not to say we will need constant winter lockdowns every year. I don't think we will. Global vaccination levels will be much higher by winter 22-23 and that will make a big difference as mutations will be less likely. And multiple revaccinations + people getting through moderate level infection will built herd immunity.

But I'd say it's more likely than not that they'll be something more mid-level which mitigates the spread of possible mild-severe outbreak (ie hospitalisations but with fewer deaths) eg hospitality closed in January, an extended winter break from schools to 3 or 4 weeks etc. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with mutations but that's not the most likely outcome.

We have to be clear what vaccines can and can't do. I've had the MMR jab and I've also had both measles and mumps. I was pretty ill but didn't die. I think next winter we may well see something similar with covid-19 which will require some moderate steps that are between no restrictions and full lockdown.

Just to be crystal clear on this, the idea that you can just shut hospitality for a month on little more than a whim is the problem. If we are ever willing to do that for less than 50k deaths in a year then normal life is done for

 

[duncanp]

I don't think we will be in the best position by next winter. A large number of people will need revaccinating, and this will take time. While most people globally are not vaccinated, mutations will happen and it is likely that at best they'll result in only mid level protection from covid-19.

I want to be clear - I said 'some lockdown restrictions'. I'm not predicting months of lockdown with mass stay at home orders, mass school closures.

To say we will probably need a little next winter is not to say we will need constant winter lockdowns every year. I don't think we will. Global vaccination levels will be much higher by winter 22-23 and that will make a big difference as mutations will be less likely. And multiple revaccinations + people getting through moderate level infection will built herd immunity.

But I'd say it's more likely than not that they'll be something more mid-level which mitigates the spread of possible mild-severe outbreak (ie hospitalisations but with fewer deaths) eg hospitality closed in January, an extended winter break from schools to 3 or 4 weeks etc. Who knows, maybe we'll get lucky with mutations but that's not the most likely outcome.

We have to be clear what vaccines can and can't do. I've had the MMR jab and I've also had both measles and mumps. I was pretty ill but didn't die. I think next winter we may well see something similar with covid-19 which will require some moderate steps that are between no restrictions and full lockdown.

I don't think closing hospitality in January is going to achieve much to be honest.

January is a quiet time of year anyway for pubs, as most people are broke or hungover after Christmas and New Year.

If you wanted to reduce the spread of the virus, you would close pubs around Christmas and New Year, which would go down like a lead balloon with the public, as well as completely wreck a sector that would be only just getting back on its feet after all the closures this year.

Any restrictions next winter are likely to be low level, such as tacking an extra week on to the school holidays, asking people to voluntarily limit the number of journeys they make or the number of different pubs they visit, rather than impose a stay at home order or close pubs again. You could say "stay local" instead of "stay at home".

 

[yorksrob]

They need to be bolstering capacity in hospitals ready for next winter.

It would be good if we could have weekly updates on progress in recruiting the missing medical professionals to fill the posts that have been empty since before the pandemic. I don't trust them to introduce "moderate steps" - I've been waiting for these all year, but it seems to be lockdown or nothing.

 

[DorkingMain]

I agree, this must be the last lockdown. The government should be preparing an alternative strategy to lockdowns if the worst case situation does occur and there is a new wave next winter.

Agreed also. We were sold lockdown as a short-term solution due to lack of other available options in the short term. If we can see the problem on the horizon there is absolutely no excuse not to look for alternatives.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Feb 2021 ==

They need to be bolstering capacity in hospitals ready for next winter.

It would be good if we could have weekly updates on progress in recruiting the missing medical professionals to fill the posts that have been empty since before the pandemic. I don't trust them to introduce "moderate steps" - I've been waiting for these all year, but it seems to be lockdown or nothing.

Agree with this also. 40,000 people ill in a country with a population of 68 million should not be "overwhelming" the health service. That suggests complete negligence at many levels

 

[ChrisC]

It's pleasing that the CRG group has taken this position. I think it's entirely reasonable that we should be return to normality once 1 - 9 have been vaccinated. I'm not in groups 1 - 9, so I will personally be being cautious at that stage until I'm fully done, however it should be down to individuals own assessment of risk at this stage. Yes, there is a risk that the virus will mutate - but this is also true of flu, which is even more mutatable.

I absolutely agree that people need to be trusted to do their own individual risk assessments. Restrictions should be lifted as soon as possible and people should then be left to assess their own situations.

I have certainly not been one of those people who have been terrified and not been out of the door, but I have been cautious during the last year because I have assessed my situation and decided that to be sensible. Although I am in my early 60’s it’s been more because I have been caring for an elderly relative in their 80’s why I have been careful. I haven’t been on public transport, into a busy city or even into a large supermarket during the past year, but I did go on three short breaks into quiet country areas staying in hotel last summer, as I assessed that to be very low risk. If l didn’t have someone elderly to care for, and definitely if I was younger, I would be far less cautious and even more annoyed and frustrated about this seemingly never ending lockdown. Because of my circumstances I will probably remain a little cautious until I have received both doses of the vaccine probably by July.

 

[35B]

They need to be bolstering capacity in hospitals ready for next winter.

It would be good if we could have weekly updates on progress in recruiting the missing medical professionals to fill the posts that have been empty since before the pandemic. I don't trust them to introduce "moderate steps" - I've been waiting for these all year, but it seems to be lockdown or nothing.

Which medical professionals are you thinking of? It takes 5 years to do a medical degree, and 4 to train a nurse.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Cases down by a quarter on yesterday
Deaths down by 40% on last Sunday

Some very positive news there. Remember, only compare Sunday and Monday death tolls with previous Sundays and Mondays else it's apples and oranges.

 

[35B]

I absolutely agree that people need to be trusted to do their own individual risk assessments. Restrictions should be lifted as soon as possible and people should then be left to assess their own situations.

I have certainly not been one of those people who have been terrified and not been out of the door, but I have been cautious during the last year because I have assessed my situation and decided that to be sensible. Although I am in my early 60’s it’s been more because I have been caring for an elderly relative in their 80’s why I have been careful. I haven’t been on public transport, into a busy city or even into a large supermarket during the past year, but I did go on three short breaks into quiet country areas staying in hotel last summer, as I assessed that to be very low risk. If l didn’t have someone elderly to care for, and definitely if I was younger, I would be far less cautious and even more annoyed and frustrated about this seemingly never ending lockdown. Because of my circumstances I will probably remain a little cautious until I have received both doses of the vaccine probably by July.

The issue with risk assessment is that it's not just my risk assessment that matters, but that of others. If the CRG's demands are met, that would also include the requirement to quarantine, sorry, self-isolate, if infected.

 

[yorksrob]

Which medical professionals are you thinking of? It takes 5 years to do a medical degree, and 4 to train a nurse.

The missing posts. Have they provided visa exemptions and provided incentives for people to relocate, have they increased the numbers allowed to do a degree in the first place, have they provided the funding for the individual hospitals etc to fill the posts ?

These are all questions that need answering now.

 

[35B]

The missing posts. Have they provided visa exemptions and provided incentives for people to relocate, have they increased the numbers allowed to do a degree in the first place, have they provided the funding for the individual hospitals etc to fill the posts ?

These are all questions that need answering now.

Fair questions, though there are some ethical and practical questions about encouraging trained staff to migrate into the UK from less well served systems elsewhere.

 

[Crossover]

Cases down by a quarter on yesterday

The first day where positives have been under 11k since the start of October!

 

[brad465]

Expect the tabloid photographers with their zoom lenses to be out in force in the usual places such as London parks, Brighton/Bournemouth beaches etc.

Something else I've just thought of, we haven't heard a lot about anti-lockdown protests recently, although they happened earlier in this current lockdown, perhaps because while the weather hasn't stopped people getting out and about, it's not been suitable for protesting. However this sort of weather forecast, combined with having just met the 1-4 vaccine first dose target, all Covid stats being in a much better place, and being just before the PM's roadmap out of lockdown announcement, sounds conducive for more protesting, so certainly one to watch to see if anything becomes of it.

 

[yorksrob]

The issue with risk assessment is that it's not just my risk assessment that matters, but that of others. If the CRG's demands are met, that would also include the requirement to quarantine, sorry, self-isolate, if infected.

And that is why the vaccine is being rolled out.

And we already have the requirement to quarantine if we're infected, so I don't see how that makes any difference - unless you're suggesting that we should forego all of our basic freedoms indefinately, otherwise if we don't, we might be forced to forego all our basic freedoms for two weeks - that would be a ludicrous argument.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Feb 2021 ==

Fair questions, though there are some ethical and practical questions about encouraging trained staff to migrate into the UK from less well served systems elsewhere.

We've been recruiting medical staff from abroad for years, so now seems a peculiar time to start having second thoughts.

 

[XAM2175]

... Have they provided visa exemptions and provided incentives for people to relocate ...

I can't help but be reminded of this report from November 2019:

More than 22,000 EU nationals have left NHS since Brexit referendum, figures show

Liberal Democrats warn that replacements will be deterred by new visa and health surcharge fees after UK leaves the EU

www.independent.co.uk

More than 22,000 EU nationals have left the NHS since the EU referendum in 2016, new figures suggest.
The figures emerged as Boris Johnson came under fire for saying that EU migrants had been “treating Britain as their own” for too long.
Responses by 88 NHS hospital trusts to freedom of information enquiries revealed that the 22,600 EU nationals leaving the service over the past three years included 8,800 nurses and midwives.
The numbers quitting the NHS increased by 21 per cent from 7,037 in 2015, the year before the referendum, to 8,540 the year after in 2017. While departures declined to 7,647 in 2018, the number remained 9 per cent above pre-referendum levels.
Mr Johnson’s pledge to increase nursing numbers by 50,000 is dependent on recruiting 12,000 new nurses from overseas. ...

 

[yorksrob]

I can't help but be reminded of this report from November 2019:

More than 22,000 EU nationals have left NHS since Brexit referendum, figures show

Liberal Democrats warn that replacements will be deterred by new visa and health surcharge fees after UK leaves the EU

www.independent.co.uk

It is a relevant article.

What is the Government doing to rectify the situation.

 

[Jamesrob637]

The first day where positives have been under 11k since the start of October!

03 October was the last day. Coincidentally four weeks to a month after schools resumed.

 

[Crossover]

03 October was the last day. Coincidentally four weeks to a month after schools resumed.

It has also since been pointed out to me that this was also around the time of "Excel-gate" so the numbers were probably "worse" back then

 

[DorkingMain]

It is a relevant article.

What is the Government doing to rectify the situation.

There's also a horrendous problem with retention for doctors and nurses. Many doctors finish training and go abroad for better pay and conditions.

 

[ChrisC]

The issue with risk assessment is that it's not just my risk assessment that matters, but that of others. If the CRG's demands are met, that would also include the requirement to quarantine, sorry, self-isolate, if infected.

The type of risk assessment I was referring to was far more basic and less complicated than that. I was just really meaning general common sense. I am in my 60’s and have to come into regular close contact with someone else in their 80s. Therefore, as far as I am able, I keep out of crowded and busy locations and keep the amount of time I spend in enclosed spaces with other people to a minimum. As the infection rates continue to fall, and restrictions are slowly lifted, I will review what is sensible and safe for me accordingly. As lockdown restrictions are lifted I don’t expect everyone, especially younger people, to be as cautious as perhaps I will have to continue to be for a few months yet.

 

[Jamesrob637]

It has also since been pointed out to me that this was also around the time of "Excel-gate" so the numbers were probably "worse" back then

The 2nd of October was only just under 7000. Even with Excelgate it wouldn't have exceeded 10k.

 

[brad465]

There's also a horrendous problem with retention for doctors and nurses. Many doctors finish training and go abroad for better pay and conditions.

The cost of all the measures we've taken to try and manage Covid far exceed those for things like better pay and conditions for staff, filling all the vacancies in the NHS, and funding it properly, combined with improving its efficiency. Even with all the debt built up now there is no excuse for not funding essential services, as they'll only lead to more serious costs further down the line.

 

[Domh245]

already the number of intensive care patients is now less than the peak last year too.

I'd love a source for that. As of 7/2, there were 4941 patients in ICUs across England. There are only averages per month available for last year but April's equivalent number was 3635

I don't think we will be in the best position by next winter. A large number of people will need revaccinating, and this will take time. While most people globally are not vaccinated, mutations will happen and it is likely that at best they'll result in only mid level protection from covid-19.

Given that every vaccine has still shown to be effective against all variants thrown up so far, I really do hate the way that everything has now latched on to mutations as the next big showstopper. At best we'd need to revaccinate the people who we also give the flu jab to - it's really not a show stopper, and can't be allowed to become one either

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The first day where positives have been under 11k since the start of October!

The outstanding positive is hospitalisations in England, which are now provided daily, and are down from 23k to 17.7k over the last week and below wave 1 peak. Some NHS regions are down nearly 30% over the week which weighted against admissions is showing number of days in hospital is falling as well. To me that shows that people are responding better to treatments now as well which adds to good news.

Tomorrows No.10 review will have very favourable data that the hawks will find it difficult to use to defend a longer lockdown. The leaking to the media shows the pendulum is swinging back against lockdown in the cabinet. Whilst im keen to see restrictions removed asap I want it driven by data not dates that suit political needs so I do hope BoJo will at least blend science with politics one year on.

 

[duncanp]

The outstanding positive is hospitalisations in England, which are now provided daily, and are down from 23k to 17.7k over the last week and below wave 1 peak. Some NHS regions are down nearly 30% over the week which weighted against admissions is showing number of days in hospital is falling as well. To me that shows that people are responding better to treatments now as well which adds to good news.

Tomorrows No.10 review will have very favourable data that the hawks will find it difficult to use to defend a longer lockdown. The leaking to the media shows the pendulum is swinging back against lockdown in the cabinet. Whilst im keen to see restrictions removed asap I want it driven by data not dates that suit political needs so I do hope BoJo will at least blend science with politics one year on.

I think the target that everyone in groups 5 - 9 is due to be vaccinated by the end of April, one week before the local and national elections, is quite significant, and I am sure that fact has not been lost on Boris Johnson.

Indeed, he may use this target, if achieved, to announce a timetable for the final lifting of all restrictions (eg, social distancing, masks etc) in advance of the elections, which will increase the feelgood factor and bag him a few extra votes.

 

[hwl]

I think the target that everyone in groups 5 - 9 is due to be vaccinated by the end of April, one week before the local and national elections, is quite significant, and I am sure that fact has not been lost on Boris Johnson.

Indeed, he may use this target, if achieved, to announce a timetable for the final lifting of all restrictions (eg, social distancing, masks etc) in advance of the elections, which will increase the feelgood factor and bag him a few extra votes.

No restriction or vaccination in the under 50s at that point would see R hit 1.75-2.0 range so I think there will probably still be some! e.g. I suspect restrictions on larger gatherings will remain for a while longer after that and masks will still be required in quite number of situations e.g. shopping, public transport...

 

[DB]

No restriction or vaccination in the under 50s at that point would see R hit 1.75-2.0 range so I think there will probably still be some! e.g. I suspect restrictions on larger gatherings will remain for a while longer after that and masks will still be required in quite number of situations e.g. shopping, public transport...

Sorry, but that's nonsense - we've already seen that (once it's passed the initial spike) this is a seasonal virus so there is no way it's going to spread at that level in April / May.

 

[HLE]

On a slightly different point I was disgusted to see Professor Tim Spector appear to be cut off his interview with Sophy Ridge this morning. Conveniently got cut off when he replied to one of her questions, told the truth about the media focusing on certain statistics to scare the public.

An example of censoring if ever I've seen it.