New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[MikeWM]

Exactly, holidays are the headline issue, but the concerns go much deeper. I personally predict that if restrictions appear to be worse than last year, even with the vaccine rollout, there will be a massive collapse in compliance.

Boiling frog. At some point even those not paying much attention will realise they are never going to be let out of the pot unless they take the leap themselves.

Until recently most people seem to have unfortunately been satisfied by the idea that this will end 'soon' - in three weeks, when the NHS is no longer 'overwhelmed', in 12 weeks, by November, by Christmas, by Easter, by late spring, once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, when everyone over 70 has been vaccinated, when everyone over 50 has been vaccinated..........

Over the last few weeks that has morphed into 'we'll have to keep doing this for a while yet' but there is *no* endgame anymore. People are starting to notice this, and the summer holiday thing and the '10 years in prison' will hopefully finally give us a turning point.

 

[yorksrob]

Boiling frog. At some point even those not paying much attention will realise they are never going to be let out of the pot unless they take the leap themselves.

Until recently most people seem to have unfortunately been satisfied by the idea that this will end 'soon' - in three weeks, when the NHS is no longer 'overwhelmed', in 12 weeks, by November, by Christmas, by Easter, by late spring, once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, when everyone over 70 has been vaccinated, when everyone over 50 has been vaccinated..........

Over the last few weeks that has morphed into 'we'll have to keep doing this for a while yet' but there is *no* endgame anymore. People are starting to notice this, and the summer holiday thing and the '10 years in prison' will hopefully finally give us a turning point.

Indeed. I heard it once said that people will wait any amount of time for a bus, as long as they feel certain that one is on its way. The moment they start thinking it's not going to turn up, they will go their own way.

The lockdown protagonists are losing public trust that they have a route out of this.

 

[Hawkwood Junc]

I sort of (only sort of) get the continuing message of caution, the vaccination project seems to be going very well, numbers are generally heading down in all appropriate metrics but the 'flu season' is still around and hospitals are still busy, if not past the peak. It's the lack of appreciation for what this actually means from the likes of the graceless Vallance in particular that grates.

The continuing verbal sick from cabinet ministers and the self appointed scientific experts about what should be allowed and when is causing more damage than anything else at the moment it seems. I think the travel, tourism and hospitality industry has done well to be restrained until now. It probably isn't good PR to be jumping up and down too much at this stage but they have every right to be as soon as the so called roadmap is published towards the end of the month and if it's anything less than crystal clear.

It's not just about holidays either. Much as I have a few planned so that my 2 1/2 year old and 6 month old can spend some time with their grandparents who they've barely seen since October. There's also Business Travel to think about, and this is often done by the younger cohort who won't be vaccinated. My job relies on a certain amount of international travel to inspect and review sites in other parts of the world on behalf of clients. I can't do that via Zoom or Teams! I do however believe that lots of more pointless business travel is likely to decrease. Many meetings I've been to previously could be done via Teams etc now.

At 34 without any pre-existing conditions I may or may not be done by some point in the summer whereas I have clients wanting to see me towards the middle of Spring. Vaccine passports for the old can get stuffed - terrible divisive policy.

 

[bramling]

It's impressive in a certain sense. They've managed to steer a course that delivers both terrible health outcomes (more than 100,000 dead and rising, alongside those deaths and issues caused by lockdowns) and also delivers terrible economic outcomes (5% unemployment, probably more when furlough ends, and GDP that's way below where it was this time last year). Seriously. It's impressive that they've managed to be so inept that they've basically delivered terrible outcomes on both key issues.

Gosh Boris and Co must be praying so hard on the vaccine riding to the rescue and riding a wave of vaccine related elation from the population at large. Because that's basically the only thing that's gone well so far.

Agreed. Even if the vaccinations go superbly, this isn’t going to make up for some businesses having been unable to trade for much of the last year.

As you say, we seem to have hit a sweet spot of worst of all worlds.

 

[6862]

Boiling frog. At some point even those not paying much attention will realise they are never going to be let out of the pot unless they take the leap themselves.

Until recently most people seem to have unfortunately been satisfied by the idea that this will end 'soon' - in three weeks, when the NHS is no longer 'overwhelmed', in 12 weeks, by November, by Christmas, by Easter, by late spring, once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, when everyone over 70 has been vaccinated, when everyone over 50 has been vaccinated..........

Over the last few weeks that has morphed into 'we'll have to keep doing this for a while yet' but there is *no* endgame anymore. People are starting to notice this, and the summer holiday thing and the '10 years in prison' will hopefully finally give us a turning point.

I think if the population were going to have 'jumped out of the pot' it would have happened by now. I think a majority of the population are so desensitised to this dystopian new normal by a year of fearmongering from government that people will never 'rebel' against all of this. The government's moving of the goalposts is contributing to this, but the damage is already done.

 

[kristiang85]

Yep early July it will be. I bet the beaches will be even more packed than last year.

Indeed, especially if foreign holidays are not allowed - everybody will just go to British beaches. Given foreign tourists don't tend to come here to go to the beach, missing them won't make much difference.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

I think if the population were going to have 'jumped out of the pot' it would have happened by now. I think a majority of the population are so desensitised to this dystopian new normal by a year of fearmongering from government that people will never 'rebel' against all of this. The government's moving of the goalposts is contributing to this, but the damage is already done.

This is the most worrying thing; I can see it in social media posts. People who previously would have railed against 'authoritariant, corrupt Tories' now blindly support their polices, egged on ever more by a completely incompetant opposition.

 

[bramling]

I think if the population were going to have 'jumped out of the pot' it would have happened by now. I think a majority of the population are so desensitised to this dystopian new normal by a year of fearmongering from government that people will never 'rebel' against all of this. The government's moving of the goalposts is contributing to this, but the damage is already done.

The trouble is there’s still a core of people whipping things up. I was having a browse on local Facebook just now, and sure enough there’s a conversation on masks - the opening was along the lines of “isn’t it terrible I went into a corner shop recently, shock horror there was someone in there without a mask, I think people with exemptions should stay at home as most of them are fake, and shock horror the shop staff did nothing”. Then needless to say over a hundred posts mostly adding fuel to the fire.

Then on a Railway group I see another similar post “driving my train yesterday I was shouting to myself at every station wear your f-ing mask”.

I despair to be honest. What more can I say beyond that? Some of these people clearly lack the self-awareness to look in the mirror and assess the rationality of their behaviour.

 

[DB]

I think if the population were going to have 'jumped out of the pot' it would have happened by now. I think a majority of the population are so desensitised to this dystopian new normal by a year of fearmongering from government that people will never 'rebel' against all of this. The government's moving of the goalposts is contributing to this, but the damage is already done.

The crunch point will be when the furlough scheme ends (which it has to at some point - they can't keep it going indefinitely).

 

[brad465]

There are two stories on the BBC's landing page at the moment showing downsides to lockdowns and the current strategy overall, adding to others in recent weeks that help show up the unsustainability of all this. The first is about record hospital waits for operations/treatment, with 225,000 now waiting over 12 months; the second is about "financial pain", with over 5 million now in a fragile position because of all this:

Year-long routine surgery waits 'worst since 2008' in England

In January, hospitals in England treated nearly a third of all Covid patients since the pandemic began.

www.bbc.co.uk

Nearly 225,000 people in England have now waited over 12 months for routine hospital treatment, NHS figures show.

That is the highest number since April 2008 and includes people waiting for operations such as knee and hip surgery.

It comes as growing numbers of operations were postponed during December when Covid cases rose rapidly, prompting a national lockdown.

However cancer care seems to have been less affected.

During December, just over 200,000 patients received urgent checks by cancer specialists and 25,000 people started their treatment - both measures are in line with numbers seen before the pandemic.

But Sara Bainbridge, head of policy at Macmillan Cancer Support, said 2020 had been a "devastating year" for many people living with cancer "who faced agonising delays or disruption to diagnosis and treatment".

Financial pain of Covid 'not shared equally'

Young people and those from black and minority ethnic backgrounds have been harder hit, a regulator says.

www.bbc.co.uk

More than five million people have fallen into a "fragile" financial position owing to the coronavirus crisis, with young working adults among the hardest hit.

People from black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds were also more seriously affected than others, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said.

The regulator said "the pain is not being shared equally".

An estimated 14.2 million people are vulnerable to a financial shock.

 

[MikeWM]

The crunch point will be when the furlough scheme ends (which it has to at some point - they can't keep it going indefinitely).

It could turn into some form of UBI though, and there will be significant pressure to do so, given how bad an unemployment problem we will have.

That and/or 'vaccine passports' are the two clear signs that there is no intent for this to ever end. If we manage somehow to avoid both, there is still hope.

I think if the population were going to have 'jumped out of the pot' it would have happened by now. I think a majority of the population are so desensitised to this dystopian new normal by a year of fearmongering from government that people will never 'rebel' against all of this. The government's moving of the goalposts is contributing to this, but the damage is already done.

Significant appalling damage has indeed been done, and in pessimistic moments I agree with you, but it is hard to judge when (if ever) you will hit a tipping point. I think it can still happen, though I'm not sure if it will or not.

 

[brad465]

It could turn into some form of UBI though, and there will be significant pressure to do so, given how bad an unemployment problem we will have.

That and/or 'vaccine passports' are the two clear signs that there is no intent for this to ever end. If we manage somehow to avoid both, there is still hope.

If UBI is introduced under a Conservative Government, they can kiss goodbye to most of their anti-socialist voter base.

 

[kristiang85]

Then on a Railway group I see another similar post “driving my train yesterday I was shouting to myself at every station wear your f-ing mask”.

You would think that this train driver would realise that if mask mandates continue on public transport, passengers are less likely to choose trains over cars, and thus his or his colleagues' jobs are going to start looking rickety in the long run...

 

[MikeWM]

If UBI is introduced under a Conservative Government, they can kiss goodbye to most of their anti-socialist voter base.

I think there would be significant resistance from Tory back-benchers, but there are elements of the right who have been significantly attracted to UBI - it isn't just a socialist thing.

For me, the key issue is that I would expect the 'universal' part of UBI to actually be anything but, in the same way 'universal' credit is actually subject to all sorts of petty sanctions for not 'following the rules' (sound familiar?)

 

[nedchester]

Boiling frog. At some point even those not paying much attention will realise they are never going to be let out of the pot unless they take the leap themselves.

Until recently most people seem to have unfortunately been satisfied by the idea that this will end 'soon' - in three weeks, when the NHS is no longer 'overwhelmed', in 12 weeks, by November, by Christmas, by Easter, by late spring, once the most vulnerable have been vaccinated, when everyone over 70 has been vaccinated, when everyone over 50 has been vaccinated..........

Over the last few weeks that has morphed into 'we'll have to keep doing this for a while yet' but there is *no* endgame anymore. People are starting to notice this, and the summer holiday thing and the '10 years in prison' will hopefully finally give us a turning point.

I agree with this point. Despite what some think on here I am not someone who supports endless lockdowns but I do support the current lockdown to get infection rates down.

BUT

we are in a situation whereby we are almost acclimatising the public to the restrictions and a 'new normal' (I hate that phrase, it's not normal until it's normal IMHO). Since this all started the panacea has been an effective vaccine. So when we got to December just that appeared on the scene and the UK (especially) has been very effective at dishing out said vaccine with 13 million people having received their first dose. It is therefore not unreasonable for people to expect things to return to something close to normality when all those most vulnerable to the virus have a reasonable degree of protection. Let's say over 50s which should be done by April so why are we talking about significant raising of restrictions by then but admitting there may be a slight delay if the vaccine is supplies are disrupted?

 

[kristiang85]

I think there would be significant resistance from Tory back-benchers, but there are elements of the right who have been significantly attracted to UBI - it isn't just a socialist thing.

For me, the key issue is that I would expect the 'universal' part of UBI to actually be anything but, in the same way 'universal' credit is actually subject to all sorts of petty sanctions for not 'following the rules' (sound familiar?)

UBI is supported by many on the right as in one stroke it would eliminate the costs and bureaucracy of the welfare state (in its simplest form).

The downside many libertarians say is that once you're effectively on the government 'payroll' then there can be conditions attached - then it very easily leads to a social credit system, which is complely dystopian.

 

[DB]

I think there would be significant resistance from Tory back-benchers, but there are elements of the right who have been significantly attracted to UBI - it isn't just a socialist thing.

For me, the key issue is that I would expect the 'universal' part of UBI to actually be anything but, in the same way 'universal' credit is actually subject to all sorts of petty sanctions for not 'following the rules' (sound familiar?)

Any UBI (if it ever happens) is likely to be significantly less than furlough pay for many though, so would still have a very significant impact.

 

[MikeWM]

Any UBI (if it ever happens) is likely to be significantly less than furlough pay for many though, so would still have a very significant impact.

Of course, but I doubt the government would care. They haven't exactly seemed to care about throwing millions of people into poverty already over the past year.

 

[initiation]

I see that Farrar is promoting the line that "we opened up too early/quickly" last summer. As far as I can see, this is an outright lie, given that the reopening las summer was very slow and controlled and didn't lead to an increase in infections for months.

In was so angry when I saw that quote, there is no evidence at all that there were increases in cases when we reopened certain things. Shops, pubs, protests, hairdressers. Nothing. Cases continued declining. He also referred to getting cases down into the 'thousands' - well guess what, cases were in the hundreds at the low point last summer and look where we are now. If the Government had any balls it would slap down these doom proponents. If the media had any rigour they would challenge them on these basic points.

Anger is unfortunately what I am feeling about this right now. I deeply fear we are on the cusp of loosing all our previous freedoms esentially forever. That may sound alarmist but remember this started as just 3 weeks to flatten the curve. We are now talking about some restrictions going on for years.

I have written again to my mp (Liam Fox) who I believe is on the middle ground but not sure what else I can do. Where do we find out about protests or support businesses that are trying to break free from the rules?

The government believe public opinion is pro-restriction. Until that changes nothing else does. Perhaps what we need a series of advertising messages showing clear facts such as that the average age of death with Covid is higher than average life expectancy, previous quotes (lies) from Gov officials and how they have reversed positions etc.. A bit like the Led by Donkeys campaign against Brexit.

 

[35B]

I think there would be significant resistance from Tory back-benchers, but there are elements of the right who have been significantly attracted to UBI - it isn't just a socialist thing.

For me, the key issue is that I would expect the 'universal' part of UBI to actually be anything but, in the same way 'universal' credit is actually subject to all sorts of petty sanctions for not 'following the rules' (sound familiar?)

If we ever ended up with UBI, I'd expect it to be clawed back in some form of tax charge - look at how Child Benefit is subject to see how that might work.

 

[bramling]

You would think that this train driver would realise that if mask mandates continue on public transport, passengers are less likely to choose trains over cars, and thus his or his colleagues' jobs are going to start looking rickety in the long run...

100% agree.

 

[philosopher]

I think if the population were going to have 'jumped out of the pot' it would have happened by now. I think a majority of the population are so desensitised to this dystopian new normal by a year of fearmongering from government that people will never 'rebel' against all of this. The government's moving of the goalposts is contributing to this, but the damage is already done.

I know this has been predicted many times before on this forum, but I do think if the rule of six is still in place in the summer, then unrest will likely occur. It could start by the police heavy handily trying to break up a large gathering in a public place in a deprived urban area, resulting in scuffles between the police and those at the gathering. From there on, there could be sympathy protests which escalate to larger scale unrest.

 

[MikeWM]

If we ever ended up with UBI, I'd expect it to be clawed back in some form of tax charge - look at how Child Benefit is subject to see how that might work.

Yes, I'm sure that those of us still fortunate enough to have a job would end up less well off, not more.

I'm not actually opposed to that per se, or indeed the idea of UBI itself. But, especially after the past year, I don't trust any government to not use it as a big stick to force compliance to whatever they want to happen (get vaccinated, wear a mask, eat less meat, drink less alcohol, don't post bad things about the government on twitter, recycle more, exercise more, etc. etc. etc. etc.) - ie. another mechanism for implementing a Chinese-style social credit system.

 

[Yew]

The Sun seems to be coming out pretty hard on removing restrictions once the over 50's are vaccinated.

We won't accept new excuses for limiting freedom once over-50s are vaccinated

Try freedom EXACTLY how urgently is the Government seeking to lift the lockdown? Too many ministers clearly think our torturous house arrest is an acceptable status quo. The Sun backs the current r…

www.thesun.co.uk

Try freedom​

EXACTLY how urgently is the Government seeking to lift the lockdown? Too many ministers clearly think our torturous house arrest is an acceptable status quo.

The Sun backs the current restrictions and, by and large, the proposed dates to lift them.

Once over-50s have had at least one shot, deaths and hospitalisations should be a fraction of current levelsCredit: PA:Press Association

But it is worrying to hear Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warn that “people shouldn’t be booking holidays right now”.

That even for UK summer breaks to go ahead, “a lot of different things need to come together”. Boris Johnson echoed that “uncertainty” last night.

It is a woeful, supine position. And shambolic too, since the Health Secretary has booked HIS Cornish getaway.

The lockdown has slashed deaths, hospitalisations and cases.


The vaccines should speed up that fall imminently, as our exclusive details of the first amazing PHE data revealed yesterday.

It is worrying to hear Transport Secretary Grant Shapps warn that 'people shouldn’t be booking holidays right now'Credit: Reuters
Once over-50s have had at least one shot, and assuming no jab-resistant strain has engulfed Britain, deaths and hospitalisations should be a fraction of current levels.

Brits will want our shops, pubs, restaurants and hols back.

For months we’ll have dutifully stayed home, saved lives and protected the NHS.

 

[yorksrob]

In was so angry when I saw that quote, there is no evidence at all that there were increases in cases when we reopened certain things. Shops, pubs, protests, hairdressers. Nothing. Cases continued declining. He also referred to getting cases down into the 'thousands' - well guess what, cases were in the hundreds at the low point last summer and look where we are now. If the Government had any balls it would slap down these doom proponents. If the media had any rigour they would challenge them on these basic points.

Anger is unfortunately what I am feeling about this right now. I deeply fear we are on the cusp of loosing all our previous freedoms esentially forever. That may sound alarmist but remember this started as just 3 weeks to flatten the curve. We are now talking about some restrictions going on for years.

I have written again to my mp (Liam Fox) who I believe is on the middle ground but not sure what else I can do. Where do we find out about protests or support businesses that are trying to break free from the rules?

The government believe public opinion is pro-restriction. Until that changes nothing else does. Perhaps what we need a series of advertising messages showing clear facts such as that the average age of death with Covid is higher than average life expectancy, previous quotes (lies) from Gov officials and how they have reversed positions etc.. A bit like the Led by Donkeys campaign against Brexit.

Indeed. I made the cardinal error of listening to Jeremy Vine today where Nina Myskow was stating "we have a choice between depression or death" in terms of lockdown. Someone ought to have pointed out that it's a choice of depression or a risk of death from COVID that is broadly the same risk as the risk of death from anything else, at any given age. It's shocking that these people are allowed to spread such misinformation on a national radio station.

 

[Yew]

Indeed. I made the cardinal error of listening to Jeremy Vine today where Nina Myskow was stating "we have a choice between depression or death" in terms of lockdown. Someone ought to have pointed out that it's a choice of depression or a risk of death from COVID that is broadly the same risk as the risk of death from anything else, at any given age. It's shocking that these people are allowed to spread such misinformation on a national radio station.

In my demographic, the risk of suicide is higher than the risk from Covid.

 

[Class 33]

I know this has been predicted many times before on this forum, but I do think if the rule of six is still in place in the summer, then unrest will likely occur. It could start by the police heavy handily trying to break up a large gathering in a public place in a deprived urban area, resulting in scuffles between the police and those at the gathering. From there on, there could be sympathy protests which escalate to larger scale unrest.

There really is no reason for "The rule of six" to still be in place by the summer. It will be ridiculous beyond belief if that's still going on, likewise if social distancing and face mask wearing is still going. Absolutely no need for all these silly restrictions to still be dragging on by the summer.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

There really is no reason for "The rule of six" to still be in place by the summer. It will be ridiculous beyond belief if that's still going on, likewise if social distancing and face mask wearing is still going. Absolutely no need for all these silly restrictions to still be dragging on by the summer.

Rule of Six? Indoors?

Imagine that freedom! I cannot wait for that day to come as it is 600% better than now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

Another interview on Radio 4 with Jeremy Farrar suggesting restrictions continue until case numbers are down to the single thousands. Frustratingly the interviewer didn't press him on what level of restrictions these would be. I get the impression this means non-stop lockdown.

It seems we will potentially have gone backwards since last summer when there were no vaccines. I don't see how anyone will accept this.

Was he referring to cases per day or per week? At the current rate of decline we should be in the single thousands of cases per day in under 2 weeks time. Single thousands per week will be around 10 to 12 weeks, so late April to Mid May.

 

[bramling]

There really is no reason for "The rule of six" to still be in place by the summer. It will be ridiculous beyond belief if that's still going on, likewise if social distancing and face mask wearing is still going. Absolutely no need for all these silly restrictions to still be dragging on by the summer.

To be honest the rule of six is low on my list of concerns, though I question how much point there is to it. Number one at the moment is movement restrictions, education and business closures. Then close behind that is masks.

I can tolerate elements of social distancing providing they’re not overly intrusive.

 

[Class 33]

Rule of Six? Indoors?

Imagine that freedom! I cannot wait for that day to come as it is 600% better than now.

Indeed. But "The Rule of Six" and all the other restrictions really need to be gone by the end of May.

Remember government ministers just before Christmas saying "Unfortunately big get togethers won't be possible this Christmas. You can have your big get togethers at Easter instead."?. What will they say as we get nearer to Easter now? "Unfortunately big get togethers(that you should have had last Christmas) won't be possible this Easter. You can have your big get togethers at Christmas instead."!! People aren't going to stand for this if they keep stringing us along giving us hope that normal life is within sight, and then keep moving the goal posts a few months or more down the line.

 

[yorksrob]

Was he referring to cases per day or per week? At the current rate of decline we should be in the single thousands of cases per day in under 2 weeks time. Single thousands per week will be around 10 to 12 weeks, so late April to Mid May.

I'm not sure whether he outlined it. I may have been drowsy. It didn't sound as though he thought two weeks time was likely.

To be honest the rule of six is low on my list of concerns, though I question how much point there is to it. Number one at the moment is movement restrictions, education and business closures. Then close behind that is masks.

I can tolerate elements of social distancing providing they’re not overly intrusive.

I agree. I'm not even massively exercised about masks.