New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[35B]

No, because being against lockdown isn't an extreme position. Being in favour of dropping all restrictions immediately possibly would be, but I didn't hear Walker arguing for that.

I didn’t comment on or reply to a comment about extremes, just the talking heads that frame the debate as it is at the moment. One is about living with it, the other about suppressing it till it’s gone altogether.

Both get too much of a free ride in what I hear. The zero Covid arguments aren’t seriously confronted with the “what is the impact on society” questions that they must answer for the costs of their preference to be considered; the Walkers are given too much of a free ride on the cost in lives and health of releasing current policies too soon. The result is that we get a binary argument in public, which ignores the difficult grey areas in the middle that politicians in government will have to deal with as weaknesses in whatever policy they choose are exposed.

The extreme would be the likes of Delingpole, who try to pretend there’s nothing there at all and therefore nothing to consider in terms of public policy.

 

[Yew]

I didn’t comment on or reply to a comment about extremes, just the talking heads that frame the debate as it is at the moment. One is about living with it, the other about suppressing it till it’s gone altogether.

Both get too much of a free ride in what I hear. The zero Covid arguments aren’t seriously confronted with the “what is the impact on society” questions that they must answer for the costs of their preference to be considered; the Walkers are given too much of a free ride on the cost in lives and health of releasing current policies too soon. The result is that we get a binary argument in public, which ignores the difficult grey areas in the middle that politicians in government will have to deal with as weaknesses in whatever policy they choose are exposed.

The extreme would be the likes of Delingpole, who try to pretend there’s nothing there at all and therefore nothing to consider in terms of public policy.

That argument presupposes that they are 'too soon'.

 

[Reliablebeam]

Yet on the other the media, she is there go to person - similar to Ferguson amongst others from SAGE? So does the media not have anyone else they can speak to about this than the usual reality scientist soapbox stars?

Some universities are much better at playing a media game than others, in the sense that their PR departments are quite well connected and it 'looks good' to get their academics mugs on the telly as experts. Related to this, a number of younger academics have managed to cultivate a large social media profile which these PR types lap up, even in my public sector end of science (some of my colleagues wish some of these lot would spend more time doing their jobs rather than in twitter though!). The usual format is heavy twitter presence, a few pop science books and looking presentable on the telly. Sridhar is a good example, but you also have the likes of Adam Kucharski who fit this bill.

 

[philosopher]

I didn’t comment on or reply to a comment about extremes, just the talking heads that frame the debate as it is at the moment. One is about living with it, the other about suppressing it till it’s gone altogether.

Both get too much of a free ride in what I hear. The zero Covid arguments aren’t seriously confronted with the “what is the impact on society” questions that they must answer for the costs of their preference to be considered; the Walkers are given too much of a free ride on the cost in lives and health of releasing current policies too soon. The result is that we get a binary argument in public, which ignores the difficult grey areas in the middle that politicians in government will have to deal with as weaknesses in whatever policy they choose are exposed.

The extreme would be the likes of Delingpole, who try to pretend there’s nothing there at all and therefore nothing to consider in terms of public policy.

In my view, there has been too little pushback against the zero Covid idea from politicians, media and scientists who do not support it. The contrast is particularly notable when compared to the reaction there was against those who advocated a herd immunity approach, who were essentially ridiculed and sometimes labelled fringe extremists.

Hence it has been able to gain a very high degree of traction and support among the public. Indeed it would not surprise me if the majority of the public, if asked whether they think Covid should be eliminated, would agree with it.

 

[py_megapixel]

In my view, there has been too little pushback against the zero Covid idea from politicians, media and scientists who do not support it. Hence it has been able to gain a very high degree of traction and support among the public. Indeed it would not surprise me if the majority of the public, if asked whether they think Covid should be eliminated, would agree with it.

To ask exclusively that question would be misleading.

I do not fundamentally oppose eliminating it, and it would be an excellent idea if the required measures weren't so awful. But once numbers are down sufficiently, mental health has to come first.

 

[yorksrob]

Both get too much of a free ride in what I hear. The zero Covid arguments aren’t seriously confronted with the “what is the impact on society” questions that they must answer for the costs of their preference to be considered; the Walkers are given too much of a free ride on the cost in lives and health of releasing current policies too soon. The result is that we get a binary argument in public, which ignores the difficult grey areas in the middle that politicians in government will have to deal with as weaknesses in whatever policy they choose are exposed.

There is a very binary aspect to the debate, however I think that that mainly due to the terms "lockdown" and "restrictions" being used interchangeably and a lack of willingness of policy scrutinizers to draw pro-lockdown proponents on the value and efficacy of different restrictions, as opposed to considering lockdown as one policy.

 

[Yew]

To ask exclusively that question would be misleading.

And why would they let that stop them.

 

[Class 33]

That's the main problem. It’s all very well people deciding that they have had enough of the lockdown and are not remaining in lockdown much longer, but not so easy if nearly everywhere remains closed. I’ve completely had enough of walking the same muddy footpaths within a few miles from home. As the weather gets better and the nights lighter I would like to forget lockdown and begin to take longer days out further from home and ultimately spend a few nights in a hotel away from home. This can’t be done if hotels are closed and even on days out it’s not much fun when you can’t sit inside anywhere for something to eat and drink. I’m finding it so depressing this morning listening to the news where there is talk of not even any UK holidays this summer, and that things might just be nearly back to normal by the end of the year. I was hoping that we could at least get back to what we had last summer by April.

Absolutely.

I've not even been out of the city now since the end of October because of all this lockdown/tiered system malarky and the hassle of all these restrictions still dragging on. I'd like to get away for the day(or even just a few hours or so) somewhere on the train soon. A journey and change of scenery is good for the mental health. And being able to do so without feeling that we're breaking the law, and could be stopped and questioned by the police and possibly even arrested! Hopefully and surely though that come the easing of lockdown on 8th March, that the "Stay at home" and "Essential travel only" rule will be dropped. If it's not though, it will be absolutely ridiculous as hospital numbers and deaths would have decreased even further by then. And if this "Stay at home" nonsense is still going then, I really can't see many people putting up with that and sticking to that, especially if the weather warms up. Many people would be heading to the nations parks, beaches and beauty spots to enjoy the weather!

And when the "Stay at home" nonsense is dropped and we're officially "allowed" to make journeys on trains and buses for leisure, then why an earth will it then not be possible to go on holiday in this country at least?? It's absolutely bonkers, and I just don't get it! By even June, the large large bulk of the country's population will have had their vaccinations. So how can it be justified as to why would we not be allowed to go on holidays in this country by then??

If it does turn out that holidaying in this country is not allowed for the rest of this year or even during the next 6 and a half months until the end of summer, then that means all the country's hotels, B & B's, hostels, etc will have to remain closed and not generate any revenue/income. So how an earth would these places survive if they have to still remain closed for several months yet? There would be thousands upon thousands of hotels, B & B's, hostels etc in this country that would end up closing down for good! Additionally it would also mean that this summer's festivals industry would be completely wiped out again for the second year in a row!

A reminder of what the housing secretary Robert Jenrick said on TV interviews back in December. He said "If people can just bear with all these restrictions for just a few more months now, then we'll be out of all this.". Well Robert, it's getting very near the end of that few more months of bearing with all these restrictions. We had better be out of all these damaging restrictions soon after that, and not dragging on into the summer and possibly beyond. You and your government had better not be stringing us along.

 

[35B]

In my view, there has been too little pushback against the zero Covid idea from politicians, media and scientists who do not support it. The contrast is particularly notable when compared to the reaction there was against those who advocated a herd immunity approach, who were essentially ridiculed and sometimes labelled fringe extremists.

Hence it has been able to gain a very high degree of traction and support among the public. Indeed it would not surprise me if the majority of the public, if asked whether they think Covid should be eliminated, would agree with it.

Fair comment, though the tendency of many on the anti-restriction side of the argument to line up with the "deniers" rather than engage seriously hasn't exactly helped their credibility.

@Yew and I instinctively disagree about where the balance should be struck, and probably the relative weighting to different factors, but I think we would both strongly agree that the lack of serious discussion over the costs and benefits of different approaches to Covid is to all of our disadvantage. There are very many anecdotes, but remarkably little in the way of clear data to inform what are moral and practical decisions.

 

[Simon11]

If it does turn out that holidaying in this country is not allowed for the rest of this year or even during the next 6 and a half months until the end of summer, then that means all the country's hotels, B & B's, hostels, etc will have to remain closed and not generate any revenue/income. So how an earth would these places survive if they have to still remain closed for several months yet? There would be thousands upon thousands of hotels, B & B's, hostels etc in this country that would end up closing down for good! Additionally it would also mean that this summer's festivals industry would be completely wiped out again for the second year in a row!

Last year without any vaccinations, the majority of people in the UK could travel for a holiday in the UK and abroad between July-ish to October ish. I headed to Malta in August and Canterbury in October following all the guidelines.

Turning to 2021, what is different this year that means we may not be able to at least holiday within the UK this summer..... Doesn't make sense! I can understand huge concerns about covid variants in other countries but that shouldn't lock down all travel abroad.

The other thought is that the media seems to be leading in asking about the holidays? Are there really that many people in the UK that are desperate to book their summer holiday "now" and making lots of noise about this ? I intend to book a few weeks for leave in the summer and will book my trip a few weeks before going- giving plenty of time to assess the situation and not put my hard earned money at risk!

 

[initiation]

Are there really that many people in the UK that are desperate to book their summer holiday "now" and making lots of noise about this ? I intend to book a few weeks for leave in the summer and will book my trip a few weeks before going- giving plenty of time to assess the situation and not put my hard earned money at risk!

Not just the demand from holiday makers, the holiday industry I suspect will also be desperate for bookings in order to give them cashflow to survive.

If everyone waited until the summer before booking it is certain some hotels etc...would not survive.

 

[6862]

Last year without any vaccinations, the majority of people in the UK could travel for a holiday in the UK and abroad between July-ish to October ish. I headed to Malta in August and Canterbury in October following all the guidelines.

Turning to 2021, what is different this year that means we may not be able to at least holiday within the UK this summer..... Doesn't make sense! I can understand huge concerns about covid variants in other countries but that shouldn't lock down all travel abroad.

I suspect it's largely because the government know that letting people think they can have a holiday this year will make people feel like things are getting better and getting back to 'normal'. I think they know that if they let the cat out the bag again they'll struggle to get it back in, so this year they plan to be stricter so they don't lose their grip on the population's compliance with the rules.

 

[ChrisC]

If it does turn out that holidaying in this country is not allowed for the rest of this year or even during the next 6 and a half months until the end of summer, then that means all the country's hotels, B & B's, hostels, etc will have to remain closed and not generate any revenue/income. So how an earth would these places survive if they have to still remain closed for several months yet? There would be thousands upon thousands of hotels, B & B's, hostels etc in this country that would end up closing down for good! Additionally it would also mean that this summer's festivals industry would be completely wiped out again for the second year in a row!

About 2 years ago there were lots of articles and reports in the press and tv programmes highlighting the terrible deprivation in some of our seaside towns. Places like Great Yarmouth and Blackpool had areas with some of the highest deprivation and social problems in the country. The hotels, B & B’s, bars, seafront attractions, amusements, gift shops and other entertainment and leisure venues provide the bulk of employment in these towns. The jobs they provide may be seasonal and low paid but at least they are jobs in towns where there is not much alternative employment. The situation in these seaside towns will be absolutely horrific if everything remains closed this summer. Parts of them were already looking neglected and run down with boarded up shops even before this all began.

 

[Yew]

Last year without any vaccinations, the majority of people in the UK could travel for a holiday in the UK and abroad between July-ish to October ish. I headed to Malta in August and Canterbury in October following all the guidelines.

Turning to 2021, what is different this year that means we may not be able to at least holiday within the UK this summer..... Doesn't make sense! I can understand huge concerns about covid variants in other countries but that shouldn't lock down all travel abroad.

The other thought is that the media seems to be leading in asking about the holidays? Are there really that many people in the UK that are desperate to book their summer holiday "now" and making lots of noise about this ? I intend to book a few weeks for leave in the summer and will book my trip a few weeks before going- giving plenty of time to assess the situation and not put my hard earned money at risk!

In a normal year, I'd be starting to think about summer trip around this time, and I imagine lots of middle-class journalists are too.

 

[joncombe]

Personally I think it's more than just holidays. The implication that even domestic holidays might not be allowed in the summer is I suspect at least as much as a concern, as it suggests hotels (and caravan sites and so on) won't be permitted to be open. Which means almost certainly that pubs, cafes and restaurants won't be either. Perhaps there is also implication that there will still be domestic travel restrictions too. In addition going away isn't always a "holiday". It just as much means going to see friends or family that do not live locally or to attend events.

The Government have, as usual, made a complete mess of it. A few weeks back we had Matt Hancock saying that he was now looking forward to taking a holiday and had booked one in Cornwall for the summer as well as telling the public that "we can all look forward to a summer doing all the things we enjoy again". The message that sends out is very clear, it will be fine to go on holiday in the summer.

Now we have Grant Shapps saying that it's much to early to be thinking about holidays and restrictions in the summer. Well perhaps he should have told Matt Hancock that. I think that is also why there is a lot of anger here because from where I am sitting this looks like yet another Government U-turn (without them ever admitting as much, of course).

 

[yorksrob]

Personally I think it's more than just holidays. The implication that even domestic holidays might not be allowed in the summer is I suspect at least as much as a concern, as it suggests hotels (and caravan sites and so on) won't be permitted to be open. Which means almost certainly that pubs, cafes and restaurants won't be either. Perhaps there is also implication that there will still be domestic travel restrictions too. In addition going away isn't always a "holiday". It just as much means going to see friends or family that do not live locally or to attend events.

The Government have, as usual, made a complete mess of it. A few weeks back we had Matt Hancock saying that he was now looking forward to taking a holiday and had booked one in Cornwall for the summer as well as telling the public that "we can all look forward to a summer doing all the things we enjoy again". The message that sends out is very clear, it will be fine to go on holiday in the summer.

Exactly, holidays are the headline issue, but the concerns go much deeper. I personally predict that if restrictions appear to be worse than last year, even with the vaccine rollout, there will be a massive collapse in compliance.

 

[bramling]

Personally I think it's more than just holidays. The implication that even domestic holidays might not be allowed in the summer is I suspect at least as much as a concern, as it suggests hotels (and caravan sites and so on) won't be permitted to be open. Which means almost certainly that pubs, cafes and restaurants won't be either. Perhaps there is also implication that there will still be domestic travel restrictions too. In addition going away isn't always a "holiday". It just as much means going to see friends or family that do not live locally or to attend events.

The Government have, as usual, made a complete mess of it. A few weeks back we had Matt Hancock saying that he was now looking forward to taking a holiday and had booked one in Cornwall for the summer as well as telling the public that "we can all look forward to a summer doing all the things we enjoy again". The message that sends out is very clear, it will be fine to go on holiday in the summer.

Now we have Grant Shapps saying that it's much to early to be thinking about holidays and restrictions in the summer. Well perhaps he should have told Matt Hancock that. I think that is also why there is a lot of anger here because from where I am sitting this looks like yet another Government U-turn (without them ever admitting as much, of course).

Spring and summer holidays is a red line for me, and I’m just in the process of a further communication to my MP.

I’d wage a fiver that what will happen in practice is hotels will open some time around early July, so the masses can get their break during the traditional school holiday period - just like last year. Totally unacceptable.

I also agree with the posts expressing concern for the future of hotels and holiday areas in general. During my holiday last October the mood I picked up on was already pretty dire even then. There’s some choice stuff on some hotel websites and Facebook sites, one I’m hoping to stay in during May (yeah right!!!) has got some pretty colourful stuff about Drakeford - we spent a lot of time and money doing everything we were asked to do in order to become “Covid secure” and you still won’t let us trade.

 

[Class 33]

I saw someone on the news the other day saying that for many businesses in the hospitality industry, that they are just a few months away now from collapsing(closing down for good) if they can not reopen fully again with no restrictions. So if indeed it turns out that all these businesses can not reopen fully pretty soon without any silly restrictions, then the effects this will have on the hospitality industry is going to absolutely catastrophic. The government needs to get their act together pretty soon to save this from happening. Scrap all these ridiculous restrictions within the next few months!

Hancock on TV this morning saying "Things are still very uncertain at the moment.". We've got all these millions and millions of vaccinations going ahead that will ultimately stop hospitalisations and deaths from Coronvavirus, for crying out loud! He himself said not long ago that "These vaccines are our way out of all these blasted restrictions.".

 

[bramling]

Exactly, holidays are the headline issue, but the concerns go much deeper. I personally predict that if restrictions appear to be worse than last year, even with the vaccine rollout, there will be a massive collapse in compliance.

There already is. Compliance was never particularly strong with “stay at home” this time round, and it’s getting less and less so with every week that passes.

But that doesn’t help me book a hotel, and despite the strength of feeling I can’t see places deciding to ignore “the rules” and attempt to trade anyway.

You can bet they’ll end up with nothing til about July, then everything completely manic for two months, which of course will be completely unhelpful.

 

[yorksrob]

There already is. Compliance was never particularly strong with “stay at home” this time round, and it’s getting less and less so with every week that passes.

But that doesn’t help me book a hotel, and despite the strength of feeling I can’t see places deciding to ignore “the rules” and attempt to trade anyway.

You can bet they’ll end up with nothing til about July, then everything completely manic for two months, which of course will be completely unhelpful.

Indeed. Getting things started early and allowing people to spread themselves out would be the best option, however you can guarantee that Farrar and the lockdown brigade will compress it as much as possible. Typical of their boneheaded and entirely counterproductive thinking.

 

[bramling]

I saw someone on the news the other day saying that for many businesses in the hospitality industry, are just a few months away now from collapsing(closing down for good) if they can not reopen fully again with no restrictions. So if indeed it turns out that all these businesses can not reopen fully pretty soon without any silly restrictions, then the effects this will have on the hospitality industry is going to absolutely catastrophic. The government needs to get their act together pretty soon to save this from happening. Scrap all these ridiculous restrictions within the next few months!

Hancock on TV this morning saying "Things are still very uncertain at the moment.". We've got all these millions and millions of vaccinations going ahead that will ultimately stop hospitalisations and deaths from Coronvavirus, for crying out loud! He himself said not long ago that "These vaccines are our way out of all these blasted restrictions.".

This is the trouble with the “follow the science” policy. The scientists are playing it safe as they know any bad outcome is going to be dumped on them, whilst Boris and company won’t deviate from the “follow the science” as they simply don’t have the intelligence to articulate and justify such a position.

This mess is unfortunately the conclusion of quite a few years of politics being dominated by particularly useless politicians.

 

[VauxhallandI]

There already is. Compliance was never particularly strong with “stay at home” this time round, and it’s getting less and less so with every week that passes.

But that doesn’t help me book a hotel, and despite the strength of feeling I can’t see places deciding to ignore “the rules” and attempt to trade anyway.

You can bet they’ll end up with nothing til about July, then everything completely manic for two months, which of course will be completely unhelpful.

Exactly I can't even not comply to any great extent as there is nothing to not comply with open. The only option I have now with my parents have been jabbed is to consider going to stay with them.

If the vaccine doesn't stop me transmitting it then you could argue that there is no point waiting until I've had it plus 3 weeks??

 

[bramling]

Indeed. Getting things started early and allowing people to spread themselves out would be the best option, however you can guarantee that Farrar and the lockdown brigade will compress it as much as possible. Typical of their boneheaded and entirely counterproductive thinking.

Yep early July it will be. I bet the beaches will be even more packed than last year.

 

[Bantamzen]

This is the trouble with the “follow the science” policy. The scientists are playing it safe as they know any bad outcome is going to be dumped on them, whilst Boris and company won’t deviate from the “follow the science” as they simply don’t have the intelligence to articulate and justify such a position.

This mess is unfortunately the conclusion of quite a few years of politics being dominated by particularly useless politicians.

The other problem is that there is no "the science". Science isn't binary, and as we know here not of scientists / experts don't all agree on the use of lockdowns. However the government & media present the advice given to them as universally accepted, and that anyone arguing against portrayed as being in some conspiracy camp. And worse still there does some to be at least anecdotal evidence that they are proactively discouraging counter arguments both in the media & on social networks.

 

[DB]

Jeez they had to wheel out Devi again!, are the like of Devi paid puppets by the UK media by chance as its a forever ending cycle by the same gob..e people! (pardon my swearing)

Irony when you mention she states that we shouldn't be expecting holidays this summer etc - I guess thats the memo she passed to Sturgeon? (this was said a few weeks ago up north so its obvious needs to wheel it out UK wide)

Oh look (quelle surprise!): https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-no-holidays-abroad-19799499

I know this thread is England but it can't be coincedence.





Oh yes that same thing again, the public advised not to book holidays but I bet this lot of MP's will have holidays booked and fly off!

Also to further state she says "domestically" (does that mean we can travel between the 4 nations or shut off from each other?) but stay put for 6-8 months, so thats what? August-October? .. so end of Summer/Autumn? Are we getting a deja vu moment here, what happens by October (estimate) batten down the hatches? (come on now!)

If 'mutated strains' could reinfect people who have already had it (and no doubt the same will be claimed to apply to those who have been vaccinated, either by her or by another of the doomster) then there is literally no end point to this as the virus will continue to mutate forever!

 

[yorksrob]

I see that Farrar is promoting the line that "we opened up too early/quickly" last summer. As far as I can see, this is an outright lie, given that the reopening las summer was very slow and controlled and didn't lead to an increase in infections for months.

 

[DB]

I see that Farrar is promoting the line that "we opened up too early/quickly" last summer. As far as I can see, this is an outright lie, given that the reopening las summer was very slow and controlled and didn't lead to an increase in infections for months.

Indeed.

If you are looking for something which could be claimed as a trigger for the increase again last year, it's clearly the masks in shops mandate!

 

[6862]

I see that Farrar is promoting the line that "we opened up too early/quickly" last summer. As far as I can see, this is an outright lie, given that the reopening las summer was very slow and controlled and didn't lead to an increase in infections for months.

Exactly - there was no justification for any measures last summer, and there will almost certainly be no justifiable reason to have any measures this summer. I'm sure they'll make up some justification for it though. I think it's becoming quite clear that lockdown has gone from being a means to an end, to being 'an end' in and of itself.

 

[kez19]

If 'mutated strains' could reinfect people who have already had it (and no doubt the same will be claimed to apply to those who have been vaccinated, either by her or by another of the doomster) then there is literally no end point to this as the virus will continue to mutate forever!

Have they ever caught the cold?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

Funny, it’s usually the same talking heads on both sides of the argument. Both equally tediously reciting their best lines from the last year, lightly tuned to whatever the latest headlines are.

This is Big Brother 2021/22

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Feb 2021 ==

Some universities are much better at playing a media game than others, in the sense that their PR departments are quite well connected and it 'looks good' to get their academics mugs on the telly as experts. Related to this, a number of younger academics have managed to cultivate a large social media profile which these PR types lap up, even in my public sector end of science (some of my colleagues wish some of these lot would spend more time doing their jobs rather than in twitter though!). The usual format is heavy twitter presence, a few pop science books and looking presentable on the telly. Sridhar is a good example, but you also have the likes of Adam Kucharski who fit this bill.

Aah should be more concentrating on their job than social media but I guess it falls under the “influencer” part of it, I wonder how they all had coped without social media?

 

[ainsworth74]

This mess is unfortunately the conclusion of quite a few years of politics being dominated by particularly useless politicians.

It's impressive in a certain sense. They've managed to steer a course that delivers both terrible health outcomes (more than 100,000 dead and rising, alongside those deaths and issues caused by lockdowns) and also delivers terrible economic outcomes (5% unemployment, probably more when furlough ends, and GDP that's way below where it was this time last year). Seriously. It's impressive that they've managed to be so inept that they've basically delivered terrible outcomes on both key issues.

Gosh Boris and Co must be praying so hard on the vaccine riding to the rescue and riding a wave of vaccine related elation from the population at large. Because that's basically the only thing that's gone well so far.