New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[duncanp]

And so the mental torture continues...

COVID-19: Scientists label mutation found in Bristol as 'variant of concern'

There have been 14 cases of the variant in Bristol, four in Manchester, and three other scattered cases.

news.sky.com

New mutation of the UK variant discovered in the UK...

"New variant of concern".... "may be highly transmissible".... "could also possibly interfere with the vaccine"..."could make the vaccine less effective at stopping the spread of the virus"....." it could evade the vaccine."

And the killer blow....

"Experts agree the best way to stop new variants spreading is lockdown".


I do wish the "experts" would go away!

We cannot stay in lockdown just because of all these maybes and could dos. I do fear that Boris and co are spooked and will listen to them too much.

There will always be new variants that come along from time to time, such as :-

• The Neil Ferguson variant, which gives you immunity and blocks transmission if you want to cross London whilst allegedly in self isolation for a quick "liaison" with your partner
• The Sadiq Khan variant, which the main symptom of which is that you make a constant whining noise and are generally a pain in the backside to everyone around you.

In some senses the scientists are correct in that lockdowns are the best way to stop new variants spreading.

But the problem with this is that lockdowns are unaffordable in the long term, and place an intolerable burden on the economy, people's mental health, and those requiring NHS treatment for anything other than COVID-19 (remember this time last year, when we used to carry out investgations and treatment for cancer?)

In the long term, the only way of dealing with COVID-19 is to treat it in the same way as we do seasonal flu. This means that we have a vaccine which can prevent some people from catching the disease and transmitting it, and others from becoming seriously ill to the extent that they require hospitalisation.

We should also give every adult in the country a free seasonal flu jab this autumn, as this will help to reduce pressure on the NHS over the next winter.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well that is the one guaranteed way to stop covid!

Not really, it will just jump species again.

 

[yorksrob]

Exactly, detecting a couple of dozen cases dotted about isn't "a cause for concern", it is of note but not something we should be panicking about. Indeed panic might lead to more lockdowns, which in turn could supress the current dominant strain opening the door for new ones to gain a foothold. I'm pretty certain that is what happened with the "Kent" variant, it emerged during or just after the first lockdown, found the previous strain in retreat and so took advantage.

Indeed. This has been my worry. I heard someone being interviewed saying that if you surpress one strain through vaccination, you may open the way for other strains to take their place. Yet no one bothers to point out that the favourite policy of lockdown could, and maybe has in Kent, cause the same thing to happen.

There will always be new variants that come along from time to time, such as :-

• The Neil Ferguson variant, which gives you immunity and blocks transmission if you want to cross London whilst allegedly in self isolation for a quick "liaison" with your partner
• The Sadiq Khan variant, which the main symptom of which is that you make a constant whining noise and are generally a pain in the backside to everyone around you.

In some senses the scientists are correct in that lockdowns are the best way to stop new variants spreading.

But the problem with this is that lockdowns are unaffordable in the long term, and place an intolerable burden on the economy, people's mental health, and those requiring NHS treatment for anything other than COVID-19 (remember this time last year, when we used to carry out investgations and treatment for cancer?)

In the long term, the only way of dealing with COVID-19 is to treat it in the same way as we do seasonal flu. This means that we have a vaccine which can prevent some people from catching the disease and transmitting it, and others from becoming seriously ill to the extent that they require hospitalisation.

We should also give every adult in the country a free seasonal flu jab this autumn, as this will help to reduce pressure on the NHS over the next winter.

It's cleat that allowing lockdown in the first place was a huge mistake. It just puts off the moment when the scientists have to come up with a sustainable way to balance the risk of COVID with everything else. Perhaps the slew of new variants may focus the minds of decision makers that we can't lockdown our way out of the crisis.

 

[6862]

Perhaps the slew of new variants may focus the minds of decision makers that we can't lockdown our way out of the crisis.

I doubt it, they have established the narrative that 'lockdowns work' and that is now the government's go to strategy. They would think that they have to come up with a new strategy to replace lockdowns, and I think other countries would have to also change their strategy as Boris and co won't want to be seen to be doing anything different (i.e. not following 'the science').

 

[londonteacher]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

 

[Bantamzen]

Indeed. This has been my worry. I heard someone being interviewed saying that if you surpress one strain through vaccination, you may open the way for other strains to take their place. Yet no one bothers to point out that the favourite policy of lockdown could, and maybe has in Kent, cause the same thing to happen.

The problem with their argument is that vaccines trigger the immune systems to react, and quite often the immune systems are good enough to also spot other variants and stop, or at least slow them enough not to cause anything serious. This is another product of micro-managing the virus through the media.

It's cleat that allowing lockdown in the first place was a huge mistake. It just puts off the moment when the scientists have to come up with a sustainable way to balance the risk of COVID with everything else. Perhaps the slew of new variants may focus the minds of decision makers that we can't lockdown our way out of the crisis.

This is true, lockdowns are the "get out of jail" cards for the experts. Yes technically lockdowns will work, the problem is what you do when they end. Which is why experts dig themselves into the trenches, because they know the answer.

(Spoiler: The virus will start to spread again)

 

[VauxhallandI]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

I wrote to my MP

The type of people on this forum are probably not I the position to start unrest.

I’m just an ordinary Joe I’m not sure where I would start but if there were massive demonstrations I would consider attending. I think it is such events that then go violent and the ripple effect would be outbreaks of violence all over the country that wouldn’t need a demo to start them

 

[island]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

There’s been a series of judicial reviews. None have been successful to date. See for example R (Dolan & Ors) v Health Secretary & Education Secretary, [2020] EWCA Civ 1605.

 

[yorksrob]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

I have twice and haven't heard anything back.

It's shocking that all major parties are following a pro-lockdown line.

It's frustrating that the polititians and media are all twittering on about international travel bans and not addressing lockdown.

 

[VauxhallandI]

I’ve just seen a piece on BBC breakfast that states The Teenage Cancer Trust are demanding that people getting news of cancer diagnosis’s should be able to have someone with them. Also for treatment as well.

This is where the locktavists make me sick; they are full of self righteousness but they are just as bad as the party hosts they look down on.

 

[DelayRepay]

I have written to my MP twice. I raised concerns about the impact of specific measures rather than complaining about all restrictions. I received a copy and paste reply which explained in general terms why he supported lockdown, quoting things like the number of people in the local hospital. He did not, however, address the specific points I raised. I do not oppose all restrictions but I think the current restrictions are excessive and could be more targetted to achieve similar results with much less harm.

The problem is that my MP is a tory so I would never vote for him anyway, but the opposition seem to be even more enthusiastic about lockdowns than the government.

On the expression 'variant of concern' - I think this is a term the scientists use to signify that they need to keep a close eye on it to see how it spreads and whether it might need a 'tweak' to vaccines. It is good that we have the capability to identify mutations and monitor their spread. But the phrase does cause alarm when used by the media.

 

[nedchester]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

I have been on record here as saying I think the lockdowns are necessary at the current time to reduce infections and hospital admissions but I DO think we are currently in the last throw of the dice when it comes to restrictions.

Many have been happy to go go along with the lockdowns for the reason that the vaccine was on its way and we would be pretty much near to normal by Easter. That was the carrot to ensure compliance. But now we hear of the stick of further restrictions despite the massive success of the vaccination programme which has exceeded all of our expectations.

I don't think there will be civil unrest but more and more people will stop complying if there is no sign of normality returning. There is an increasing mental health issue.

 

[DustyBin]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

In simple terms the government have so far managed to defeat any legal action by playing the emergency legislation card. The legislation is very broad and grants powers even beyond those exercised to date. It’s one of the most disturbing aspects to all of this, the government is effectively ruling by decree (i know that sounds slightly hyperbolic but it’s true).

 

[duncanp]

I don't think there will be civil unrest but more and more people will stop complying if there is no sign of normality returning. There is an increasing mental health issue.

I don't think there will be civil unrest (people protesting and engaging in acts of violence) but there will be increasing levels of civil disobedience (people just ignoring the rules when it suits them) if the lockdown review on 22nd February envisages substantial restrictions remaining beyond the end of April.

This article from the Telegraph live feed suggests that levels of civil disobedience are increasing even now

A fraction of the £10,000 lockdown fines issued last year have actually been paid with dozens more being challenged or ignored, figures suggest.

Police in England issued 196 of the fines, with two handed out in Wales, to organisers of gatherings of more than 30 people including raves, parties and protests between August and December 20.

According to figures from early January, of those 196 issued in England five had been paid, 53 were being formally contested, 42 had been ignored, and 96 still had time left to pay in the 28-day payment period. The data from criminal records office Acro, that administers the fines, were given to the National Police Chiefs' Council (NPCC).

It comes as the Government is facing outcry over its latest enforcement plans: families who lie about going on holiday to destinations such as Portugal face up to 10 years in prison – longer than the maximum sentence for sex offences with children or violent firearms crimes.

Furthermore, it is most unlikely that someone is going to end in prison for 10 years for concealing an illicit trip to the Algarve. Putting someone in prison for this length of time, which is longer than sentences imposed for rape and other sexual offences, IS likely to lead to civil unrest in the long term.

Former Conservative attorney general Dominic Grieve described the 10-year jail terms for travellers who try to conceal journeys from high-risk countries as a mistake.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, he said: "Ten years is entirely disproportionate, and I was trying to work out why this figure had been plucked out of the air.

"This is a regulatory offence, and no regulatory offence I can think of attracts a 10-year sentence. The reality is that nobody would get such a sentence anyway, the courts are simply not going to impose it.

"To suggest that a 10-year sentence is going to result from a false declaration on a form on landing at Heathrow Airport is, I think, a mistake because it's exaggerated, it's not going to happen. It's a mistake of the Government to suggest something which is not going to happen."

 

[6862]

In simple terms the government have so far managed to defeat any legal action by playing the emergency legislation card. The legislation is very broad and grants powers even beyond those exercised to date. It’s one of the most disturbing aspects to all of this, the government is effectively ruling by decree (i know that sounds slightly hyperbolic but it’s true).

Yes, this is the most disturbing aspect of the whole thing. We live in a country which has gone from a free democracy to an authoritarian state with no effective parliamentary scrutiny in less than a year. There is no 'road map' out of this political nightmare, as the government can keep it going for as long as they like by simply renewing their emergency powers at regular intervals - some might say that support for renewing these powers will decrease, but I think the government will avoid being defeated on this by announcing new strains/mutations at opportune times.

 

[Kremlin Stooge]

I’m not seeing civil unrest/disturbance, more like a level of what might be termed ‘civil disinterest’. Certainly here in Bristol, road traffic levels seem to be almost where they were this time last year, whereas during the early days of the 1st lockdown it was quite easy to visualise tumbleweed blowing down the A38 Gloucester Road. Pedestrian traffic is not so busy, obviously with most retail outlets still closed or restricted, but mask-wearing outdoors is still a minority hobby among those conducting their government-permitted exercise.

Many have been happy to go along with the lockdowns for the reason that the government-backed furlough schemes are some of the most generous of anywhere in the world. I suspect that disquiet would be rather more widespread if it were to be announced that:
a) lockdown is being extended for another 2 or 3 months
b) furlough support is to be paid at rate equivalent to JobSeekers Allowance (though this would enable many folks to get used to this level of income, as they will be facing such a situation anyway).

 

[Watershed]

Yes, this is the most disturbing aspect of the whole thing. We live in a country which has gone from a free democracy to an authoritarian state with no effective parliamentary scrutiny in less than a year. There is no 'road map' out of this political nightmare, as the government can keep it going for as long as they like by simply renewing their emergency powers at regular intervals - some might say that support for renewing these powers will decrease, but I think the government will avoid being defeated on this by announcing new strains/mutations at opportune times.

I think it has merely served to show that we had the façade of living in a truly free democracy. The events of the past year have pushed us quite some way down the freedom rankings - well below other countries we used to deride.

There was a big uproar about the 12 month validity of the Coronavirus Act's powers when it was being passed through Parliament, but in the event, those powers have barely been used. Instead, powers that were added to the Public Health Act 1984 in 2008 were used.

 

[Mintona]

I think I might write to my MP. It’s Mark Harper so there’s a good chance he’ll be sympathetic

 

[joncombe]

One thing I do not understand is there are so many people on this forum and many others and on social media who are completely against lockdowns and the restrictions which people are allowed the opinion of. But there has been talk of civil unrest but nothing has been seen yet. Have people communicated with their MPs yet?

When the Brexit result came in and the laws were passed people took them to court over the legislation - people like Gina Miller. But has anyone considered that yet?

It's all very well talking about restrictions on forums, social media and protesting but that will not change anything. The only way changes will occur is legal action.

Yes I've contacted my MP about the first lockdown. He assured me he was keen to see things open up quickly. However he voted in favour of lockdown 2 and further restrictions. I contacted him again recently but he didn't reply and I made it clear I wouldn't vote for him again whilst these restrictions exist (probably why he didn't reply)

I also contributed to the crowdfunding legal action Simon Dolan was taking however that didn't get anywhere (and in any case it seems Simon Dolan is a bit of a conspiracy theorist and anti-vaxer which is a shame as I am not sure I would support him again knowing that).

 

[takno]

Interesting that there was some commentary on the Lothian buses thread about rises in antisocial behaviour by young people both on and against buses. It's that sort of problem that grows out of boredom and a growing feeling that society is something being done to people rather than something they have a stake in.

Saying that these things rise as a specific protest against a particular law is a mistake. What we are building is an epic scale of misery and disengagement which will be with us for the next 10 years. The lack of an actual riot now, with people chanting the specific terms of the exact policy in question, doesn't mean the government or the rest us have got away with it

 

[initiation]

There needs to be a political declaration that lockdown is no longer an acceptable (nor viable) response to any of this, and that the scientists need to find other solutions.

While I agree we cannot trust any declaration made.

Back in the summer we had Boris comparing the prospect of having a second lockdown to using our nuclear weapons

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson rules out second national lockdown comparing measure to 'nuclear deterrent'

Boris Johnson has effectively ruled out implementing another national lockdown if the number of coronavirus cases begins to climb again, comparing ...

www.politicshome.com

Only a month ago we had Grant Shapps saying he would be 'on the barricades to get our freedoms back' once over 70s were vaccinated (we are now basically there). Hancock said a similar thing to the Spectator.

https://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1347479440729763841

Masks, Christmas, changes in tiers, travel, vaccine passports. It all comes after denying the measures will be implemented.

 

[6862]

While I agree we cannot trust any declaration made.

Back in the summer we had Boris comparing the prospect of having a second lockdown to using our nuclear weapons

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson rules out second national lockdown comparing measure to 'nuclear deterrent'

Boris Johnson has effectively ruled out implementing another national lockdown if the number of coronavirus cases begins to climb again, comparing ...

www.politicshome.com

Only a month ago we had Grant Shapps saying he would be 'on the barricades to get our freedoms back' once over 70s were vaccinated (we are now basically there). Hancock said a similar thing to the Spectator.

https://twitter.com/talkradio/status/1347479440729763841

Masks, Christmas, changes in tiers, travel, vaccine passports. It all comes after denying the measures will be implemented.

It's quite clear they didn't mean any of this, and we can't trust any promises made by politicians that they will let this end. It still amazes me that people (including many on here) who think that the politicians will suddenly change their tune and switch from increasing restrictions to removing restrictions.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Interesting that there was some commentary on the Lothian buses thread about rises in antisocial behaviour by young people both on and against buses. It's that sort of problem that grows out of boredom and a growing feeling that society is something being done to people rather than something they have a stake in.

Saying that these things rise as a specific protest against a particular law is a mistake. What we are building is an epic scale of misery and disengagement which will be with us for the next 10 years. The lack of an actual riot now, with people chanting the specific terms of the exact policy in question, doesn't mean the government or the rest us have got away with it

That feeling that society is against you, that no-one really cares, has been building for years in huge parts of the country. You can just sense it in the air in places like where I'm from - power has always felt very distant from the North East but that's only increased in the last decade or so. Lockdown has made this much worse - the vast majority of people here either work in jobs which can't be done from home or in sectors which have been completely shut down. Seeing people in London proclaiming that lockdown should continue for ever longer infuriates us all.

I don't get the sense that things are boiling over, not yet anyway. But as you point out, the real problems will come in a few years, when the kids who have had their educations disrupted find getting a job almost impossible. If young people (especially young men) feel they have no investment in society, and no way of improving their lot in life, then unfortunately a lot will turn to crime and disorder, with all the consequences that come with that. I just don't know how lockdown supporters can't see that we are creating problems now that will last for decades to come - though most of these SAGE scientists probably live in rather nice areas, insulated from all this for now.

 

[DB]

"Experts agree the best way to stop new variants spreading is lockdown".

That media favourite phrase is also almost always incorrect - it's exceptionally unlikely that all people who can justifiably claim to expertise do actually agree with this - but "some experts agree, but others don't" really doesn't convey the message required!

 

[Class 33]

This video from Talk Radio is worth a watch(or at least listening to whilst doing something else), for those who are still finding lockdown and all these restrictions difficult to deal with, and who are bothered by doom mongering stories from the press and media.

 

[brad465]

We have another PM press conference this afternoon: if they want to talk negative they'll have to physically strain their vocal cords to do so, given all the stats are effectively plummeting (26.6% reduction in cases, 25.7% reduction in deaths and 22.2% reduction in hospital admissions, all over the last 7 days).

 

[py_megapixel]

We have another PM press conference this afternoon: if they want to talk negative they'll have to physically strain their vocal cords to do so, given all the stats are effectively plummeting (26.6% reduction in cases, 25.7% reduction in deaths and 22.2% reduction in hospital admissions, all over the last 7 days).

In the recent ones they seem to have adopted a different position of acknowledging the falling case figures, but reminding us that they are "still too high" (maybe that's one for my bingo generator )

 

[Class 33]

Ah another press conference again! When will these ever end?! So this one's with Johnson, but it hasn't said yet who else is appearing. Let's hope the attitudes at these press conferences starts turning a lot more optimistic now. As you say, the stats are absolutely tumbling now week on week. Monday's press conference with Hancock, and he didn't really mention about all these tumbling stats. Yet again he said "Our hospitals are still under a great deal of pressure." which we've heard so many times now. But with hospital admissions and numbers in hospital now tumbling, they won't be able to keep saying this for too much longer. By the end of the month the numbers in hospital should easily be below 15,000. And by the end of next month they could well be below 1,000.

 

[brad465]

In the recent ones they seem to have adopted a different position of acknowledging the falling case figures, but reminding us that they are "still too high" (maybe that's one for my bingo generator )

Sooner or later we'll reach the point where so many vulnerable people are vaccinated that infection numbers are more obsolete, as hospitalisations and deaths will be much lower proportionally. We're not there yet, but the way stats are falling suggests we're on course for it.

 

[duncanp]

This video from Talk Radio is worth a watch(or at least listening to whilst doing something else), for those who are still finding lockdown and all these restrictions difficult to deal with, and who are bothered by doom mongering stories from the press and media.

It was quite moving listening to that video.

Chris from Bolton cannot be the only person in that situation - the constant mixing of negative and positive stories, plus the shifting of goalposts on the easing of the lockdown, is having a serious impact on people's mental health.

Take this extract from the BBC website this afternoon

Mr Shapps added that this applied to those wanting to take breaks "domestically or internationally" and that the prime minister's much-awaited "roadmap" statement on possibly easing the lockdown, on 22 February, could contain more detail.

What the %@$$!! does he mean by possibly easing the lockdown or could contain more detail? Does this imply there is a chance that the lockdown won't be eased in the statement on 22nd February and if not why not? And is there a possibility that the statement won't contain more detail about the easing of the lockdown, and it will be just a load of waffle?

Now either Mr Shapps did say that, or the BBC are inserting the words possibly and could.

Either way, one of them is guilty of instilling fear into the general population, and this is precisely the sort of thing that has such an adverse effect on the mental health of people like Chris from Bolton.

The government understood this during the Second World War, and bad news was either heavily censored, or omitted from the newspapers altogether.

We came much closer to defeat in the Battle of Britain then is generally acknowledged, but you couldn't imagine Winston Churchill allowing stories admitting this to appear in the newspapers and radio.