New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

[yorksrob]

If the 'stay at home' ie. lockdown is lifted for the 8th March then that would be very good. No one expects pubs to reopen then and probably not for at least another month, but if travel restrictions within UK/England are lifted in March then that would be much better than now. A further boost would be cafes and coffee shops allowed to open (beyond just takeaway), I think this will come before pubs and restaurants.

Indeed. The chance to have some nice walks and a change of scene would do many the world of good.

 

[duncanp]

From the presser Hancock straight into emphasising still loads of people in hospital but fails to mention how much its dropped and the accelerating reduction in daily admissions. EDIT: he did subsequently acknowledge that things are going in the right direction.

On vaccines 91% of >80; 95% of 75-79; 75% of 70-74 on target with vaccine for cohort 1-4. Take up rate is above the 70% they wanted to achieve.

Says current vaccines have an impact on the variants but will adjust teh vaccine to respond to mutations like we do with flu jabs every year.

JVT says SA variant is not dominant its still the UK variant. Says it doesn't look like it has transmissibility advantage over the UK variant. Our vaccines work against UK variant so get a jab now and protect yourself against the real threat. Then through questioning is peeved the scary headlines that have been seen. Also NO new SA cases detected over last two days.

Got sense that zero covid isn't there goal and JVT view is it will be managed like flu is on annual basis in due course.

So despite vaccination rates going well cases, admissions and hospitalisations dropping like a stone and the SA variant isn't the threat media made it out to be we aint budging from our current position. No surprise really and not sure what the 15/2 review is going to consist of but it seems CRG have rolled over now and are targeting May for removal of ALL restrictions so we are stuck inside for weeks yet.

I thought today's press conference was surprisingly upbeat, both from Matt Hancock and Jonathan Van Tam.

Perhaps the government has realised that you can't keep extending the lockdown every time a new variant appears.

I don't think we will be "..stuck inside for weeks yet..."

It is entirely possible that the Stay at Home message will be lifted from 8th March, and be replaced by a Stay Alert message.

After all, if it is "safe" for pupils to go to school, surely it is "safe" for other people to be outside their house?

 

[Wychwood93]

I thought today's press conference was surprisingly upbeat, both from Matt Hancock and Jonathan Van Tam.

Perhaps the government has realised that you can't keep extending the lockdown every time a new variant appears.

I don't think we will be "..stuck inside for weeks yet..."

It is entirely possible that the Stay at Home message will be lifted from 8th March, and be replaced by a Stay Alert message.

After all, if it is "safe" for pupils to go to school, surely it is "safe" for other people to be outside their house?

The little darlings will have to be transported there somehow! Herds of Chelsea tractors on the move, plenty of time to gossip at the school gates. No risk there then!

 

[ChrisC]

From the presser Hancock straight into emphasising still loads of people in hospital but fails to mention how much its dropped and the accelerating reduction in daily admissions. EDIT: he did subsequently acknowledge that things are going in the right direction.

There’s been so much good news these last few days to be optimistic about and Hancock started with doom and gloom. He only showed the one chart showing number of people in hospital and then only commented on numbers there still being high. He didn’t show the charts showing the recent big fall in new case numbers or death rates which both would have looked very enthusiastic. He wasn’t wrong in what he said as the number of Covid cases in hospital in some parts of the country are still very high. However, it would not have done any harm to give the good news too, it would have been good to have made the good news his headlines.

 

[bramling]

Indeed. The chance to have some nice walks and a change of scene would do many the world of good.

Yay! Let’s all head to Durdle Door.

 

[yorkie]

Don't forget 'lockdown 2' still had schools open.

I'm still predicting and hoping for some relaxations on 8th March; my prediction is broadly similar to Tier 3, but potentially with "non essential" shops still shut, and schools open (but potentially a staggered return).

 

[yorksrob]

Yay! Let’s all head to Durdle Door.

Nah, I was thinking of Bournemouth Beach

Seriously though, there are some really nice seaside promenades up here that I walked along over the between-lockdown period.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Don't forget 'lockdown 2' still had schools open.

I'm still predicting and hoping for some relaxations on 8th March; my prediction is broadly similar to Tier 3, but potentially with "non essential" shops still shut, and schools open (but potentially a staggered return).

The data certainly indicates that all metrics are improving and tonights pushback against the media over zealous reporting about SA variant means they don't have that to hide behind so the odds are improving that we will see something along these lines and they just don't want to fire the gun prematurely this time which is probably wise

 

[SouthEastBuses]

I also hope that abroad travel restrictions are lifted by mid March. I am desperate to fly to Italy during the Easter holidays.

 

[Bikeman78]

Now the lunatics who appear to need to be doing everything as a favour to other people have got involved, and people have started chuntering on about elimination again. It muddies the message, worries people, and makes the whole process feel pointless because a vaccine is no longer even your passport to leaving the house. These people need to be stopped - they're trying to help but they're wrecking lives and ultimately killing people.

They're already banging on about the vaccine offering less protection against the new strains. People will start to think "what's the point?"

 

[Planesandtrain]

I also hope that abroad travel restrictions are lifted by mid March. I am desperate to fly to Italy during the Easter holidays.

I honestly don't think that will be possible at this stage. There may be an opportunity to do so over the summer, however, similar to last year. It's horrible for us that have family here and over on the continent. Europe needs to agree on a single coronavirus strategy rather than each country doing its own thing.

 

[kez19]

They're already banging on about the vaccine offering less protection against the new strains. People will start to think "what's the point?"

I'm already there and I have been vaccinated (1 of 2). in terms of "whats the point" but then look at it another way the media are just looking for negativity in anyway possible since the vaccine has been a year in the making (quick process), the same people who were singing from rooftops that the vaccine was done so quickly are now finding ways to bring it down once more.

In other words no one is happy whatever way we are meant to look at it as long as we are kept in hibernation.

 

[bramling]

They're already banging on about the vaccine offering less protection against the new strains. People will start to think "what's the point?"

It possibly doesn't help that, I suspect, a good amount of people are under the impression that we are somehow aiming for some form of elimination outcome.

 

[Bikeman78]

It possibly doesn't help that, I suspect, a good amount of people are under the impression that we are somehow aiming for some form of elimination outcome.

Personally I couldn't care less if I get vaccinated or not. I just want enough high risk people to have it so that I can visit family or go on a train, preferably without a mask.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They're already banging on about the vaccine offering less protection against the new strains. People will start to think "what's the point?"

Boris, Hancock and JVT have been out in force today pushing back on the media campaign over the weekend.

Although best comment came from Sir John Bell on C4 news who basically said its a seasonal virus and it will moderate substantially across the summer with or without the vaccine so we should get back at least last years low level of restrictions by late April/early May imv.

 

[PTR 444]

My guess on restrictions easing:

I am optimistic that schools will reopen a month from today as planned but can see some year groups going in on alternate days until Easter to help reduce virus spread. I would assume that colleges and universities will reopen on the same date, and would like to think so too as many students who study practical courses like myself have been unable to access facilities vital to their studies for weeks. I know the Welsh government have borne this in mind for their education reopening on the 22nd so hopefully Boris will do the same regarding higher education.

Outdoor leisure poses a lower transmission risk than education settings so I can see golf courses etc also opening on the 8th. 23rd March marks the anniversary of the first lockdown so would make sense to reopen non-essential retail, gyms and hairdressers from this date.

I can see household mixing and domestic travel being allowed again from Easter, followed by reopening of hospitality and leisure during the middle of April when kids are back at school. This leaves a few more weeks before I reckon the rule of six, masks and social distancing are quietly dropped at the end of May.

This leaves mass gatherings and travel restrictions as the most dominant issues. Despite the optimism many people have about going abroad this summer, I’m not so sure it will be a free for all with the constant risk of new variants. I think what will happen come June is that travel corridors will be reinstated to countries with low infection rates, while anyone wishing to fly must have a negative test beforehand. Same goes for mass gatherings; If we can contain the virus, I don’t see why stadiums, festivals and nightclubs should not be allowed to open from this summer if all attendees can get tested beforehand.

Eventually, I think we will end up in a New Zealand-like situation where domestic life will be able to largely carry on as normal, but more stringent checks on crossing borders are in place for years to come until the pandemic is over globally.

 

[takno]

This leaves mass gatherings and travel restrictions as the most dominant issues. Despite the optimism many people have about going abroad this summer, I’m not so sure it will be a free for all with the constant risk of new variants. I think what will happen come June is that travel corridors will be reinstated to countries with low infection rates, while anyone wishing to fly must have a negative test beforehand. Same goes for mass gatherings; If we can contain the virus, I don’t see why stadiums, festivals and nightclubs should not be allowed to open from this summer if all attendees can get tested beforehand.

Eventually, I think we will end up in a New Zealand-like situation where domestic life will be able to largely carry on as normal, but more stringent checks on crossing borders are in place for years to come until the pandemic is over globally.

None of this bit makes much sense. The pandemic isn't going to be "over" globally or here. The vaccinations should keep the spread somewhat in check, and much more importantly make it a not-particularly-serious disease for everyone. Testing people before going into clubs or to events, or stringent checks on border crossings will be a waste of time, just as they would be for a cold.

If we start planning to wait around for something that's not going to happen then we'll just destroy more businesses and lives, and it sounds from tonight's press conference like the government and the some of the more senior advisers are finally willing to front up and say so.

 

[Kite159]

I also hope that abroad travel restrictions are lifted by mid March. I am desperate to fly to Italy during the Easter holidays.

You might be able to fly there, but I'm going to predict you will probably have a self-funded 10 day stay in a hotel near an airport when you come back.

 

[PTR 444]

None of this bit makes much sense. The pandemic isn't going to be "over" globally or here. The vaccinations should keep the spread somewhat in check, and much more importantly make it a not-particularly-serious disease for everyone. Testing people before going into clubs or to events, or stringent checks on border crossings will be a waste of time, just as they would be for a cold.

If we start planning to wait around for something that's not going to happen then we'll just destroy more businesses and lives, and it sounds from tonight's press conference like the government and the some of the more senior advisers are finally willing to front up and say so.

I know but I can’t see how else nightclubs and mass gathering events can open up if the virus is still going to be around for some time. Some owners and organisers may prefer to remain closed just to stay on the safe side, and unless the majority of people change their perceptions of the virus to nothing more than a common cold, then I can’t see this changing. At the end of the day, having these venues open is better for the economy than keeping them closed so I think they should be allowed to open in some way or another from June, even if there have to be some additional precautions.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Don't forget 'lockdown 2' still had schools open.

I'm still predicting and hoping for some relaxations on 8th March; my prediction is broadly similar to Tier 3, but potentially with "non essential" shops still shut, and schools open (but potentially a staggered return).

No point calling it Tier 3 Mk2 if non-essential retail isn't open. It'd be more a Tier 3.5 in this case.

 

[notlob.divad]

There’s been so much good news these last few days to be optimistic about and Hancock started with doom and gloom. He only showed the one chart showing number of people in hospital and then only commented on numbers there still being high. He didn’t show the charts showing the recent big fall in new case numbers or death rates which both would have looked very enthusiastic. He wasn’t wrong in what he said as the number of Covid cases in hospital in some parts of the country are still very high. However, it would not have done any harm to give the good news too, it would have been good to have made the good news his headlines.

Only Boris is allowed to give good news.

 

[brad465]

Only Boris is allowed to give good news.

Although he has also given bad news, like announce lockdown or 100,000 deaths.

 

[notlob.divad]

I also hope that abroad travel restrictions are lifted by mid March. I am desperate to fly to Italy during the Easter holidays.

I honestly don't think that will be possible at this stage. There may be an opportunity to do so over the summer, however, similar to last year. It's horrible for us that have family here and over on the continent. Europe needs to agree on a single coronavirus strategy rather than each country doing its own thing.

You might be able to fly there, but I'm going to predict you will probably have a self-funded 10 day stay in a hotel near an airport when you come back.

I suspect international travel might be on hold for quite some time unless as Kite159 says, you want to add some quarantine weeks to your trip.
The EU wide vaccine program, whilst getting better is still lagging behind with real worries about the potential for Brazilian and South African Variants to take hold. There is even talk of the German-Austrian internal border closing again. I think as a minimum EU/Schengen external borders will be closed, until at least June, but potentially through the whole summer.
I really hate to say that as it will probably mean postponing my own wedding for a 2nd year, as half of our guests need to travel, but I don't see how the current rate of vaccinations will result in a better outcome.

It may not be such a bad thing for UK businesses in and around holiday resorts.

And whilst I agree with what Planesandtrain says and I think those discussions will be had, unfortunately they are not going to include Britain, that ship has sailed.

 

[Chester1]

I also hope that abroad travel restrictions are lifted by mid March. I am desperate to fly to Italy during the Easter holidays.

I honestly don't think that will be possible at this stage. There may be an opportunity to do so over the summer, however, similar to last year. It's horrible for us that have family here and over on the continent. Europe needs to agree on a single coronavirus strategy rather than each country doing its own thing.

It depends whether you are referring to guidance or law. Non essential foreign travel ban has never been law outside of a lockdown. Insurance for traveling against Foreign Office Travel advice is now available from multiple providers (some includes medical treatment for covid, just not covid related cancellations). I went on holiday in October against travel advice and got insurance that covered me. I needed a test before going, now I would need one to come back too but accomodation and flights were very cheap. The biggest issue might be destination countries entry rules. I expect @SouthEastBuses may be in luck with Italy because it was the first European country to reopen to tourists last year.

A European strategy will not apply to the UK. Even if our government was willing to take part it would not be allowed. The EU advice to member states essentially means banning third country citizens from non essential travel until the pandemic is over. Some individual member states will override it to receive British tourists cash.

You might be able to fly there, but I'm going to predict you will probably have a self-funded 10 day stay in a hotel near an airport when you come back.

Looking at the problems and delays setting up hotel quarantine for 30 countries with a total of fewer than 2000 arrivals a day I doubt it will apply for all arrivals. The UK Government has held the line despite Scottish pressure for England to introduce it for all arrivals. Its not practical or economically viable. Any variants will get in through Ireland anyway. It is staggering after its role in Brexit that most of the population forget that the UK has a land border. Hotel quarantine is a delaying strategy that should be reserved for the highest risk countries. My guess is that at home quarantine will apply for most arrivals for the rest of this year That is not good if you cannot WFH but if you can its worth it (especially if you can afford 5th day test and release).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Feb 2021 ==

I suspect international travel might be on hold for quite some time unless as Kite159 says, you want to add some quarantine weeks to your trip.
The EU wide vaccine program, whilst getting better is still lagging behind with real worries about the potential for Brazilian and South African Variants to take hold. There is even talk of the German-Austrian internal border closing again. I think as a minimum EU/Schengen external borders will be closed, until at least June, but potentially through the whole summer.
I really hate to say that as it will probably mean postponing my own wedding for a 2nd year, as half of our guests need to travel, but I don't see how the current rate of vaccinations will result in a better outcome.

It may not be such a bad thing for UK businesses in and around holiday resorts.

EU is not Europe though. Montenegro, Serbia and Macedonia are allowing Brits in without quarantine now. It would be a bit odd if they didn't when our case rate is lower. That is no use for someone traveling for a specific reason but its fine if people want to sit by a beach. Montenegro is supposed to be good for that + has some historic stuff. Non European destinations are an option too. Once lockdown lifts it depends whether people are prepared to travel against guidance and quarantine on return. Its unlikely if they wanted to hotel quarantine all arrivals that the government would have the infrastructure in place by Easter.

 

[yorkie]

No point calling it Tier 3 Mk2 if non-essential retail isn't open. It'd be more a Tier 3.5 in this case.

It remains to be seen if the tier system will return and if it does whether or not they will tinker with the tiers.

I just have a feeling that keeping people fit just might, this time around, be seen as more important than 'non essential' retail. It's just a hunch not based on any information.

I suspect international travel might be on hold for quite some time ....

I certainly wouldn't book anything for the Easter break.

But I have a trip booked at the end of May and I am confident in that going ahead

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Feb 2021 ==

I honestly don't think that will be possible at this stage. There may be an opportunity to do so over the summer...

There is no "may" about it; I went to Switzerland in Summer 2020 and have no doubt I can do so again in 2021. I am aiming at June this year.

 

[Chester1]

It remains to be seen if the tier system will return and if it does whether or not they will tinker with the tiers.

I just have a feeling that keeping people fit just might, this time around, be seen as more important than 'non essential' retail. It's just a hunch not based on any information.

I certainly wouldn't book anything for the Easter break.

But I have a trip booked at the end of May and I am confident in that going ahead

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Feb 2021 ==


There is no "may" about it; I went to Switzerland in Summer 2020 and have no doubt I can do so again in 2021. I am aiming at June this year.

Easter could be possible but only with booking a few days beforehand.

I went on holiday abroad three times last year after the pandemic began. It was perfectly possible to do from early July until end of October and again in December if you were prepared to risk (or accept up front) quarantining on return.

I found it bizarre that I received criticism for two holidays using travel corridors and one legal (but against advice) holiday from people who admitted to breaking covid laws.

 

[Mills444]

Easter could be possible but only with booking a few days beforehand.

I went on holiday abroad three times last year after the pandemic began. It was perfectly possible to do from early July until end of October and again in December if you were prepared to risk (or accept up front) quarantining on return.

I found it bizarre that I received criticism for two holidays using travel corridors and one legal (but against advice) holiday from people who admitted to breaking covid laws.

That's because those laws only apply to other not themselves

 

[Yew]

You might be able to fly there, but I'm going to predict you will probably have a self-funded 10 day stay in a hotel near an airport when you come back.

I believe that would be in breach of the Council of Europes resolutions

 

[yorkie]

I found it bizarre that I received criticism for two holidays using travel corridors and one legal (but against advice) holiday from people who admitted to breaking covid laws.

Let's not forget the motivation of those who wish to impose restrictions is generally about restricting others from doing things, and/or imposing obligations on others. It's also about wanting to restrict things that do not negatively affect them. This pandemic really is bringing out the worst in such people. We are facing an epidemic of authoritarianism, NIMBYism and being self-centred in the false name of being for the 'greater good'.

There are loads of them on Twitter; they tend to have blue heart symbols in their display names. This is ostensibly to display support for the NHS but in reality it tends to be used as a symbol of authoritarianism and a so-called "Zero Covid" (by eliminating transmission) strategy, which effectively means lock down harder and for a very long time. They are starting to get very angry because they see there is a real chance of lockdown being lifted on 8th March and they do NOT want that.

 

[STINT47]

There are a lot of covid 'police' about and each lockdown seems to make them more keen to tell others what to do and to pick up on others.

Often though they're hypocrites themselves. As an example a colleague posted a photo on social media showing LNER station staff who they deemed to not be socially distancing from each other. Only issue was said colleague was travelling to Edingburgh to spend a weekend with their partner and did not take kindly to anyone asking if the journey was essential.